Tour de France 2014 Early Thoughts

One thing I will say about this year's Tour - it's the best parcours I've seen for a long time

after the Dauphine today maybe the Tour is more open than the Bookmakers would suggest. There is so much young talent coming through at the minute , it is hard to pick a winner but i would certainly not be a backer of Froome @ odds on !

Come on Betfair sort out your markets, The Irish firm who love their gimmicks have over 50 markets up already !!

Kreuziger out of Tinkoff's TdF team because of doping suspicions - setback for AC for sure

Good article on Contador from today's Observer/Irish Independent;

http://www.independent.ie/sport/other-sports/cycling/gunslinger-contador-has-redemption-in-his-tour-sights-30391814.html

No surprised Kreuziger has finally been popped. He's one of my favourite riders but he did stretch credibility rather often and it was always going to be when not if.

More baffling is that Tinkov would have known this was hanging over Kreuziger so why did he continue to push him into the Tour schedule? Odd to say the least.

Accusations said to concern Astana years 2011/12

Don't think Contador had any idea how much Froome was struggling on the last day of the Dauphine. He mistakenly (but understandably) marked the wrong target.
Froome has a lot to prove after that race imo.

It could well be the year a new name steps up a level and wins the race but not a clue which one.

Anyway ,can't wait to see them come up Cragg Vale next Sunday , I ride the climbs in the area regularly.
How many opportunities to you get to see world class sportsmen in their pinnacle event 10 miles from your house ......and for free.

Im sure it was the fall that contributed greatly to Froomes downfall as he appeared to have the early measure of Contador  prior to that.
Wouldnt want to back either Froome or Contador till after the pave .
Valverde is a sporting trade bet . Cant see him winning overall but certainly likely to trade shorter after 1st week
Was on fire early in the spring before dissappearing to top up the juice in his bidons.
Stage 2 is seriously tough a series of short but real  punchy climbs and Jenkin Road @ the end (which ive ridden) will be a brute can see bothFroome and Bertie potentially losing time to Valverde and Nibali .
Yes 626 cant wait for next weekend.
Thats whats so great about this sport as an amateur you can go out and perform on the the same territory as the pros.
As a an amateur footballer/cricketer/tennis player etc you aint ever(or extermly unlikely) going to play @ Wembley/Lords/Wimbledon.
Anyone suggestions for viewing spot day 1 out in the wilds  Buttertubs or Grinton Moor dont want pay a farmer a score to park in  his field but quite happy to park up and cycle 10/20 miles to watch.

iFrame Removed

I live in Harrogate so will hang around for the finish, it's going to be crazy! a population of 65,000 swelled to probably half a million

how Froome is still fav I will never know. Bertie went with a c team to the Dauphine and was undercooked and still beat Froome easily. Bertie had absolutely no intention of going all out for the Dauphine....he never has. Read his comments. All he was interested in was putting a marker down on Froome and that is exactly what he done.

French TV picking up on the motorbike microphone Froome saying to Bertie on the last day that if they work together they can pull back Talansky and co and Bertie's response was "fcuk off"....you gotta love him. He is playing with Froome's mind and he is winning.

Bertie will have a strong team at the TDF...despite Kreiziger's issues.

Just out of interest, can any of the stats gurus tell me the last time - and how many times in recent years - someone won the TDF having had such a poor build up race to it like Froome

A lot of the bookies will be taking money on Froome as a British winner and reigning champion. Many people betting on it will only ever watch the Tour each year so will have no idea Bertie is back on it.

As for the reality I think Bertie is by far the favourite and I can't see Froome being able to cope with him when it comes to the third week, but from a betting perspective I couldn't touch Contador with any serious money as you've always got the chance that he'll be popped. So with no value on the top two I'm taking outsiders e/w Schleck(A), Gadret & Mollema have a few quid so far.

As for the question it would have been Schleck in 2010. I think he was rolling round with the autobus in the US.

but Schleck didn't win it.....only through Bertie being disqualified

Didn't look to me like Froome had such a poor build up race. Won the first two stages and looked easily the strongest before crashing.  Not that it would really matter though. Plenty of examples of riders leaving their build-up race form well behind in recent years (Sastre / Landis / even Contador himself in 2007 (or Rasmussen if you prefer)). That's why it's a build-up race

Personally I'm against both Froome and Contador at these prices.  Looked like they were intent on smashing each other to bits in the Dauphine and it will probably be the same in the next couple of weeks.  I think there is a good chance the winner will be someone who had an easier prep race and will just be happy to watch the two favourites beat each other up before coming on strong in the final week

Like who Ballistic ? looking for a bet but looks a 2 horse race on paper.

I think you can make a case for many of those priced 14-1 bar.  The only one I couldn't have would be Talansky.  He has no GT form that makes him a contender and is likely to have peaked in June.  But I think there's some value in the likes of Nibali and Valverde while VDB and Costa look very big prices

Nibali and Valverde are the two that interest me, but I've already got Van Garderen on board and might go in again at 66/1.

How did he look easily the strongest? In stage 2 of the Dauphine Froome threw everything at Bertie and still couldn't shake him. This was an undercooked Bertie who got better as week progressed. This was Bertie with a very weak team. This was Bertie who had no ambition of winning the dauphine. This was Froome with strong team. This was froome who stated he wanted to win. This was Froome who tried to put down a marker. This is Froome who failed. Froome has more to worry about than Bertie.....he can get all the TUE's he wants and all the puffs on his magic inhaler he needs.....Bertie is the better rider and in better form

Here we go then! Can't wait for this weekend, the start of my favourite 3 weeks of the year, and I have a feeling it's going to be an amazing 3 weeks.

Like everyone else I think Froome or Contador are the most likely winner, but they look really closely matched this year, and so neither offers any value. Of the 2 i would favour Froome, I think he will at least match Contador on the climbs, and the big TT at the end favours him if they are still close. However I have feeling that Froome and Contador might go head to head so hard in the first 2 weeks, that they burn each other out. I can't see either taking a backwards step, and would expect there to be attack after attack by both of them on every climb. I think there is real danger that they will be concentrating on beating each other so much, that they will both be suffering come the 3rd week. This really could turn out to be a very open tour, a lot more open than people think, and hopefully one of the most exciting for a long time.

The most obvious one to benefit if the top 2 suffer is Nibali, he is almost certain to be very strong in the 3rd week, and is sure to be there or there abouts if it is all still to play for in that final week. But at the minute he is 9/1, and for an each way bet i'm looking for better value than that, so i'm not backing him yet. Though if as is likely his price drifts, and yet he is still within 3 or 4 mins going in to the final week, i will be backing him then.

I've decided to have small bets on 3 riders, that i think are over priced and have the potential to podium and maybe better!

RODRIGUEZ 100/1 ew - I know he is coming here mainly as prep for the vuelta but the price is just way too big for one of the few riders who is genuinely capable of staying with or beating Froome/Contador on the climbs. He has said this is no training ride and that he wouldn't be here if he didn't think he was capable of achieving things. This may well be just a stage win or 2, but make no mistake, he will  be very strong come the final week as he was last year. He is a lot fresher than all of his rivals, if others are wilting in the Pyrenees, Purito will be taking time off them, it's just a question of how far behind he is by then. The TT at the end is also a big negative for Purito, but at 100/1 ive just got to back him, would love to see him win more than anyone.

TEJAY VAN GARDEREN 66/1 ew - I've long been a fan of his, and was really impressed in 2012 with how he grew stronger over the 3 weeks to finish 5th overall. He hasn't quite gone on from that, though he has shown flashes of how good he can be. To be fair he has had a fair few injury and illness issues over the last couple of years, and these are what have really hampered his progress. He does have the all round package you need to win a grand tour, he can climb well and he can TT really well. He put up a great climbing performance earier in the year when riding away from all his main rivals here in Catalunya. The month out he had after Romandie maybe a blessing as he arrives here with fresher legs than he would have done. I was slightly dissapointed with his Dauphine but looking back on it he needed the racing to get his fitness back to where it was earlier in the year, and he looked better with every stage there as the week went on. I fully expect him to get even stronger over the 3 weeks here, and if he is still in touch in that final week, he could be a danger to all as the final TT  will also really suit him.

RUI COSTA 66/1 ew - Again a rider i've been a big fan of for a number of years, and as the current world champ he is obviously full of confidence right now. I've long thought he could be a grand tour contender, and this could be the year he proves that, now that he is a team leader at last. He went to Lampre to fulfil  his ambition to be the leader and have a crack at the TDF, and this has been the plan for him and the team all year. He has been fairly low key all season preparing for this, said to have worked tirelessly on his climbing all winter. The Tour De Suisse showed that his planning has been spot on, and  his form is coming to the boil at just the right time. He was so comfortable and confident there, he rode the perfect race. The big concern with him is can he keep it up for 3 weeks? That is the unknown with him, though he was going well last year, in the top ten when riding for Valverde up until their problems on stage 13, but he then came out and won 2 stages in the last week and to me that shows he is capable of still being strong as we get to the business end. Theres no doubting his abilty, its just whether he can do it for the whole 3 weeks, I think theres a good chance he can.

Have also done CAVENDISH 11/2 for green, as knowing how much he loves to win on home soil, i'm expecting him to be winning at least 2 of the English stages to put himself in a commanding position.

And also a very small bet on SIMON YATES 25/1 for white - Pinot would be the man to beat but he didn't look in great shape at Suisse, and if he suffers then Yates could be the man to benefit.

Good luck everyone, may the best rider win, and lets hope that it's a great race to watch.

Kimmage interviews Chris Froome.  Good read.


http://www.independent.ie/sport/other-sports/cycling/cyclist-chris-froome-is-right-in-the-eye-of-the-storm-30391816.html

http://www.independent.ie/sport/other-sports/paul-kimmage-chris-froome-in-the-eye-of-the-storm-part-2-30394950.html

Finally given up on Schleck(A). Even when all the old dopers are back hitting the high numbers he's still rolling around at the back and has climbed off after 3 stages.

That should be the end of any thoughts that he'll ever be back to his best.

Laid Froome and backed Valverde ahead of tomorrow's Stage 5.

Some wild fluctuations about, value seekers getting out while the times are good, others setting up shop with optimistic protection, seems like there's a possible storm coming and no one wants to get caught out? Think that stage 5 betting might mirror the Winner market in certain circumstances, but playing that game requires more than just nerves of steel. Good luck to all, should be an interesting period. SP

Think your spot on there, SP. We might see a wittling down of the potential GC contenders tomorrow and much like today it could be no fault of their own that a GC contender gets poleaxed. Who's feeling lucky?

one rider who has hardly been seen on the first four stages but has looked quite comfortable and i think come the climbs we are going to see alot more of him is Janier Acevedo. He is 1m45s down at present and probably more after tomorrows stage but this will mean that he will not be perceived as an overall threat and he may be allowed to get away in an attack in the mountains over the next two weeks. i am gonna keep an eye on this Colombian who should be approaching his peak and may offer some value in individual stages ahead

CM I don't think there is much chance of Acevedo going for stage wins unless Talansky crashes out. He is here to ride for Talansky, and as long as his team leader remains in contention for the GC, his duties will be purely as a domestique.

Three people been matched at odds on in this year's race already, and we haven't even got to the end of Stage 5 yet.