Pakistan v Sri Lanka - 1st Test at Abu Dhabi

If Lanka can go into the 2nd innings about equal with Pak, I'll start to like their chances.

Steady start by SL, 32/0. Better than I expected.

Surprised by the draw price here: SL progressing turgidly but 110/3 off 49 overs looks quite good for a slowly achieved fairly decent score. As I'm already a bit strung out on draw I can't take any more on though and am being dangerously tempted to pull draw lays looking for tastier prices later.

Market clearly doesn't believe in SL batting at all. The draw didn't drop much when they'd got to 32/0 off about 16 overs either.

Draw price eventually noticed the action (or lack thereof). I missed most of my second top in the high 5s but have a reasonably decent position with £400 red results and £4.3k green draw. If SL tough this out well into tomorrow afternoon I wouldn't be surprised to see draw odds on at some later stage.

A bit late to the party but did have a back of SL at 3.2. Haven't seen game at all but three spinners against team batting last must give them a chance.

Yep, not unreasonable Charlie. SL plenty of chance to get a decent score first up. Will probably take them a while if so but that's fine as will want the track to wear.

When I looked on the 365 Stream it seemed not delayed making the match odds Tick Nickable, I'll have another look tomorrow.

Sep 28, 2017 -- 6:45PM, Charlie wrote:

A bit late to the party but did have a back of SL at 3.2. Haven't seen game at all but three spinners against team batting last must give them a chance.

now 3.45 what a decent price !! bat first score 350 plus, put Pakistan under massive pressure without the big guns and the ball turning and a slow pitch !!

Pakistan are in a heap of trouble which is unusual for them out in the desert.....Herath is gonna wreak havoc later on.

A drop just now in Pakistan price from 7.8 all the way down to 6 for no reason that I could see.  Draw move as I type.

Lanka's tail often wags 550+ incoming!

A rare foray into the side markets is probably gonna be a loser my 550 not incoming now!

i can see draw going here at 1.55 soon,,any other can see?

Thanks Ayt, i got your 200% bet Sri Lanka...............

Jog on pecker..u done ur nuts here..

pakistan too short and draw to long

At 153/2, and Pak going at barely 2 an over since lunch, can't believe Pak are only 3.1 to lay. No sign of any tempo from these 2, and one feels that if they do pick it up it won't be without risk to the turning ball. New ball in 15 overs, should be interesting, but at this rate it'll be midway through afternoon session before Pak draw level!

Ayt, is the heat getting to you.......... take a chill pill bruv..

the stream on 365 aint there today!

What’s everyone’s thoughts? Poor batting this morning. Pitch in my opinion is playing the same as the first three days. Sri Lanka going to have a lead of 50 ish runs going into the third innings. Score 2.5-3 an over and have a combined lead of 200 by end of play today? Then we might see them declare lunchtime tomorrow and let the three spinners have a go at them.

Other than a Sri Lanka collapse or T20 Style innings and Pakistan able to slow the over rate down with mostly quicks I’m struggling to see how the draw is still so high?

That tail shows that the pitch is still playing true, unless we see a Sri Lanka collapse this is almost done in my opinion. 100 lead by close.

While draws do occur, it can be dangerous to overestimate the possibility of one in any Test.

Market probably about right and we are twice as likely to see a Pak win as a draw. But might be close.

i fully expect pak to wrap this match up with minimum fuss

Hmm, was in a monster position earlier this test but sold my draw too early and missed the opportunity to lay it very low. My last four bets, placed while SL still batting were lay draw 4.5, 2.7; lay Pak 4.7, lay draw 2.3 (from a large draw green, has to be said). Draw lays look likely to play out well but I really need a SL Goldilocks score here then Herath to do his thing.

You might get lucky,fs. A 140 chase could be tricky.

You've got 2 notoriously dodgy teams - Bangladesh and SL - Both predictably collapsing on flat wickets today.

All we need now is Pakistan to join in the fun and we've got a hat-trick.

Welcome to the party Pakistan

Oct 2, 2017 -- 8:46AM, pxb wrote:

You might get lucky,fs. A 140 chase could be tricky.

You called it. Tempted to equal my green up a bit.

Pak 4 down. 44 overs to go.

This is the ground where in 2012 Eng had a target of 145 and were bowled out!

Pakistan are very short here.

One more wicket and it's one recognised batsman and the tail left to score about 100 on a very tricky wicket....

Surprised the market hasn’t got the draw more in play than it is. The scoring rates this test have been funereal and still 100 needed with risk taking very unappealing.

Oh fifth wicket. Safraz won’t die wondering.

With 5 Pak wickets down, I'd have Lanka as favs.

I'll keep my small green where it is, not gambling on this outcome from here at Pak 5 down!

Oct 2, 2017 -- 11:00AM, pxb wrote:

With 5 Pak wickets down, I'd have Lanka as favs.

Me too. Means I can’t even out as don’t perceive value in it. Will be a very nice win if the Lankans bring it home though. Would love them to for the sake of the game too, as they’ve been so weak recently.

Got to have humongous balls to back pak at less than evens here.

Oct 2, 2017 -- 11:02AM, LendUsAFiver wrote:

Got to have humongous balls to back pak at less than evens here.

Not so much ballsy as stupid. I’m not watching but history and the second innings scoring so far this match say this is a very tough chase now. The run rate pressure isn’t totally to be discounted either.

Should have taken my own word for it and got on draw at 30s or so.

Oct 2, 2017 -- 11:03AM, Fatslogger wrote:

Oct  2, 2017 -- 11:02AM, LendUsAFiver wrote:Got to have humongous balls to back pak at less than evens here.Not so much ballsy as stupid. I’m not watching but history and the second innings scoring so far this match say this is a very tough chase now. The run rate pressure isn’t totally to be discounted either.

I've had a go on them!

Oct 2, 2017 -- 11:12AM, Charlie wrote:

Oct  2, 2017 -- 11:03AM, Fatslogger wrote:Oct  2, 2017 -- 11:02AM, LendUsAFiver wrote:Got to have humongous balls to back pak at less than evens here.Not so much ballsy as stupid. I’m not watching but history and the second innings scoring so far this match say this is a very tough chase now. The run rate pressure isn’t totally to be discounted either.I've had a go on them!

Nutjob! Hope you’ve laid it off now. You were on SL last I heard though, right?

Yeah but but have been backing all three results with mixed success.

crazy market this

The draw odds are tantalising me can't make my mind whether I should be backing or laying them. Just backed a little at 32s.

God rid at 26s but no idea what I'm doing.

Oct 2, 2017 -- 11:17AM, Charlie wrote:

The draw odds are tantalising me can't make my mind whether I should be backing or laying them. Just backed a little at 32s.

If Safraz out soon draw a massive player for the price currently available although might be hard to pick a jumping off point.  If he stays in for a bit it will die.

Pak ahead of the RRR.

I'm just gusseting as I normally do and backed again at 38.

And for absolutely no good reason a bit more at 48 so that's me finished with backing the draw.

Oct 2, 2017 -- 11:36AM, Charlie wrote:

And for absolutely no good reason a bit more at 48 so that's me finished with backing the draw.

You need a wicket soon. Can’t see them slowing down much without one and RRR now down to about 2.

When I set modest targets I usually meet them as was case here..........got to stop looking for maximum wins which is when I get into a pickle, plenty of cricket all throughout the year, Modest Wins are my new Mantra!

Logic/discipline suggests that in a Day 5 scenario like this I ought to have spread my green evenly across the two results at the point where they seemed equally likely if the lesser green was already trading at evens or better. In practice I only partially done this as I felt/feel the next wicket could be pretty decisive.

Adrenaline is probably a curse when fighting for the jackpot win.

I'm not hoping for a draw I'm hoping Pakistan win.

Oct 2, 2017 -- 12:00PM, LendUsAFiver wrote:

Adrenaline is probably a curse when fighting for the jackpot win.

I reckon risking less than a third of the maximum cash-out across-the-board even green in the hope of more highly-geared greening up odds is not too unreasonable. It leaves just enough on the favourite to keep the green-eyed monster happy even if the better trading opportunity doesn't come.

Adrenaline really messes with you in the market just before kick-off - it was all over the shop  this morning. You can patiently trade all night then get stuffed in seconds if you're not careful.

By the way LendUs, you never confirmed if I was right about quoting you as the one who said "cricket is bent, you just have to figure out which way they're bending it".

6th wicket might be a bit late, or maybe not.

Backed Pakistan again.

Oct 2, 2017 -- 12:16PM, pxb wrote:

6th wicket might be a bit late, or maybe not.

HAHA, that was me...lat year? maybe a few years back, It's not all bent but there are some notoriously dodgy teams in Cricket.

Oct 2, 2017 -- 12:18PM, Charlie wrote:

Backed Pakistan again.

ouch

The bowling has been exceptional from SL here - They haven't given many freebies away - not a single one this innings. Just a shame they couldn't hold on for another 5 or 6 more overs.

It was many many years ago - certainly more than five, possibly ten or more - it just stuck in my mind as a really good quote. Glad I credited the right person. I had a chat the other day with an accountant/lawyer friend who reckons he knew loads of "the" traders in Gibraltar (I think he meant people that worked in the industry rather than our sort). He said most of them had "given up" on cricket cos it was so bent,( (h)allegedly, (h)allegedly) ).

danny is a perfectly passable commentator when he's not been on the crystal meth the t20 tournaments supply him with.

Imagine if he tried to maintain that elevated enthusiasm for five days solid - he'd burn himself out in one session.

Oct 2, 2017 -- 12:28PM, VardonVoo. wrote:

It was many many years ago - certainly more than five, possibly ten or more - it just stuck in my mind as a really good quote. Glad I credited the right person. I had a chat the other day with an accountant/lawyer friend who reckons he knew loads of "the" traders in Gibraltar (I think he meant people that worked in the industry rather than our sort). He said most of them had "given up" on cricket cos it was so bent,( (h)allegedly, (h)allegedly) ).

League T20 is too dodgy - it's comical sometimes how badly bent some of those matches are and the acting is far less than hollywood or bollywood class.

I've never really liked Danny but when he's taken his medication he's quite good.

Think I said "Cricket is bent you've just got to work out which way they are bending it". I was probably losing my green though

it's fascinating that it's sometimes extremely hard to detect the fixes in league t20 because the liquidity is so high.

compared to tennis, where it's paper thin and can't support the greed of those in the know, and markets are quick as a flash to latch on to something wrong.

Balls. Could do without that.

Oct 2, 2017 -- 12:34PM, DStyle wrote:

it's fascinating that it's sometimes extremely hard to detect the fixes in league t20 because the liquidity is so high.compared to tennis, where it's paper thin and can't support the greed of those in the know, and markets are quick as a flash to latch on to something wrong.

There is a trick to Tennis - lump on - wait for the loud cough in the crowd and reverse.

Sh!te or bust now backed Pakistan again.

Market thought they would shut up shop for a moment there. Draw traded from 80 to under 20.

Too many overs to shut up shop.

Yeah - market soon realised that!

A spectacularly bad failure by me. But backed Pakistan again!

Pak will now BLOCK! Going on a bit of draw here for fun

going to be a lot of extra homework for pakistan tonight.

Cracked and backed Pak a little at 3.35 to go just over a grand green there. Anything could happen from here. Even a draw is possible but they’ll start hitting eventually if not out.

No chance of a draw, both these teams have had a dabble there before the lanka collapse....

Should have stuck to my guns / green but still very pleased.

PAK should've blocked for 10 overs then done the dance.
Good game - All over now

Herath blow up dolls all around again then.

makes a mockery of ECB claims to be favouring 4 day tests

1.01 nabbed

You bet against Herath day 5 in Asia at your peril.

Another last day test match failure by me. Good position to bad position in easy stages.

Charlie - this is why I often try to stick to a fifth-day "one third" strategy.

"I reckon risking less than a third of the maximum cash-out across-the-board even green in the hope of more highly-geared greening up odds is not too unreasonable. It leaves just enough on the favourite to keep the green-eyed monster happy even if the better trading opportunity doesn't come."

What do you reckon?

VV, I'll reply when I've thought about it and calmed down!

Never touched the market today despite following it ball by ball, looking forward to the day nighter out there in the desert.

Saw the chance on this as odds imho were wrong but didnt watch or have the bottle and also have issued a fatwah on betting with Pakistan invloved.

Hope some of you made big money and others did not lose too much!

Forgot to watch the matched volume but yesterday it was 36 Million so with a gripping last day must have topped 50 Million which is fab on a test match that was overlapping other international cricket throughout.

Hope some of you made big money and others did not lose too much!

Just an average win for me trading the draw. Cashed out around midday today when draw reached 50.

Lucky to have had a moderate win really as mistimed a few draw lays and then did nothing at all until the end, when I took off a small slice of profit. Bit tough to make a lot of good calls in a game you can’t easily follow but I’ll take being mostly lucky and a bit good quite contentedly.

VV
I'm trying to work out what you mean but still don't understand. On the final day risk a third of your green on the outcome? If so I wouldn't argue apart from you have to get green to start with.

I really expect too much from tests. Five days is a grind and I tend to dip in and out. Come the last day I'm generally ok but then decide to go with one result which nearly always ends badly.

I really cannot crack Test matches. I have lost a months profit today.

I'm pretty good at tests and I don't generally make profits trading the final day (which is not always day 5). Most commonly I just leave a tip on the way out. That's not the same as there not being value available and often there is an unlikely outcome you can lay far shorter than it should be where the market has got its time / runs equations wrong. You still tend to be punting rather than trading though. Obviously lots of ways to make money on tests and I'm not saying you shouldn't be betting last day but I certainly don't think it's the best route to test success. Draw trading is where tests are at, in my view.

Draw trading is where tests are at, in my view.

For the first 2 or 3 days. Not so much toward the end.

My advice to Charlie is, if you aren't ahead by the end of day 3, minimize your loss and move on to the next Test. Unexpected things happen at the end of Tests, as we saw in this match.

A tip is, markets discount the weather forecast too much in places where they shouldn't.

And today we saw a Goldilocks score by Lanka; enough runs, but not too many. Doesn't happen too often.

I didn't get on at all early doors but I think I'm right in saying all three outcomes traded at 10s or higher before going odds on. We've seen several Tests in the last 12 months where this has happened and several others where all three outcomes traded at odds on at some point.

Charlie - yes, I meant if you have ended up with bigish greens on the non-favourite outomes and a smaller green on the favourite then looking at the "Cash Out" gives you a figure higher than your green on the fave and lower than the other outcomes. This is your maximum possible profit at this point in time if you were to evenly green out and walk away. If you aim to adjust your green on the favourite so that it is, say, two-thirds of this figure then you've left enough to trade with on the second outcome in case the odds flip - if you just piled nearly everything on to the short fave then you've nothing left to trade with if the markets jostle around. By my method the worst case scenario is you've now guaranteed yourself at least 2/3rds of your maximum profit on all outcomes plus some extra profit possible using the amount you've allowed yourself to play with if events change. In a Goldilocks scenario the market could flip several times so you can end up doing pretty well.

Getting all green over four or five days uses all sorts of methods but for me the least useful is trying to predict the final outcome and lumping on short odds just because they seem better than "fair" value. There are only about 50 Tests in a year so even if your judgement on this was exceptionally good you could still find yourself at the wrong end of a long losing spell and a vastly reduced bank. I much prefer to take smallish positions which are highly geared to a modest change in fortunes. You won't go badly wrong punting on 10-1 shots and higher but you'll get plenty of opportunities to trade out for a free bet if the long-odds outcome even only briefly becomes more plausible. What's more you may well get good odds on both the other outcomes at different times in the match even if the long shot doesn't do much. This way you can cover both your reds cheaply at different times and maybe end up all green.

Other people look to back the draw early doors and trade off during a first innings big scoring spell. Me, I don't like a position that could quickly go seriously wrong after a Wicket McFlurry, so I'd probably get out pre-match or skip the trade entirely.

Some people put on a position days ahead based on weather reports, which are highly variable and often totally wrong.

Cardinal Scott is a big advocate of what he calls "Tick-Nicking" especially after hours - I usually get stuffed over trying to do this as the market always seems to drift much further than I expected when I've only partially matched the other side of the trade.

Pxb used to do well despite certain restrictions in Aus.

You'll find a way that suits you, I'm sure. There's something about the interplay between the odds of three outcomes in a market priced by independent traders that throws up opportunities that simply don't occur in binary outcome markets.

Good luck.

Thanks to all for some exceptionally good advice. There's quite a lot for me to take in so will have a good think and reply later.