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pxb
20 Aug 17 01:03
Joined:
Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
The market looks like it did for the first Test, and forecast is similar. I try to avoid thinking that a match will be more or less a rerun of the last match, but in this case I think it will.

Which means it's unlikely to be any opportunities to make significant money, and I'll look to trade the draw as per usual.
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Report EUGENE KRABS August 29, 2017 6:07 PM BST
dolly
Report Whisperingdeath August 29, 2017 6:07 PM BST
Double teapot?
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:07 PM BST
Cook's never really liked BroadGrin
Report mafeking August 29, 2017 6:07 PM BST
west indies were on their knees at the end of yesterday. could easily have picked up a couple of wickets. was a good dec

they'll demolish them at lords in any event. jimmy who can't buy a wicket today probably get 3 in the first 3 overs
Report Richard LL August 29, 2017 6:07 PM BST
Broad seething!
Report sageform August 29, 2017 6:08 PM BST
and even when the batsman makes a mistake they drop the catch!!
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:08 PM BST
too late but regulation 1st slip catch
Report Angela Rebecchi August 29, 2017 6:08 PM BST
Shocking.
Report East_Coast_Eagle August 29, 2017 6:08 PM BST
Cook having a mare
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:08 PM BST
took his eye off the ball after edgbaston
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH August 29, 2017 6:09 PM BST

Aug 29, 2017 -- 12:07PM, johnnythebull wrote:


Cook's never really liked Broad


Laugh

Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:09 PM BST
this eng team seems to do this a lot

win lose win lose
Report mafeking August 29, 2017 6:09 PM BST
be the 9th time it's happened in the last 3 years
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:10 PM BST
aware of that ..sage ..but quite reasonably Joe deemed our bowlers the better and expected them to deliver even given the nature of the pitch
Report sageform August 29, 2017 6:10 PM BST
The object of test cricket is to win a series or at worst not lose it. England could have batted WI out of the game and taken a draw so ensuring that they could not lose the series. Whole point of the sport!
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:12 PM BST
overestimated the prowess of his bowlers and underestimated that of the WI batters
Report DirkDiggler August 29, 2017 6:13 PM BST
Got the wicket wrong also.
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:15 PM BST
sage, the question is whether you put winning a series above not losing it
or not losing it above winning
Report mafeking August 29, 2017 6:16 PM BST
market gave them no chance. were 20/1+ at the start of play. it wasn't exactly a risky declaration
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:16 PM BST
batting on to ensure a draw at worst would be negative in my eyes and it does teams no favours in the long run
(WI v eng series when strauss was captain if you want the perfect example)
Report frog2 August 29, 2017 6:16 PM BST
Still alot to do. Fingers crossed.
Report peckerdunne August 29, 2017 6:19 PM BST
What is the point of sport..........

We play so we can enjoy not loosing..............off course we do........Laugh
Report Whisperingdeath August 29, 2017 6:19 PM BST
The object of test cricket is to win a series or at worst not lose it

That is not the whole point of sport Sageform.

That is just how it is played by professional cricketers!
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:20 PM BST
pecker LaughLaughLaughLaugh pmsl
Report Richard LL August 29, 2017 6:22 PM BST
I'm slightly suprised to be watching an unscheduled day/night test match.
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:22 PM BST
Joe's doing what horse racing trainers do..prep the horse over the wrong trip on the wrong ground
ready to have it off when it counts..Down Under
Report VardonVoo. August 29, 2017 6:22 PM BST

Aug 29, 2017 -- 12:16PM, wondersobright wrote:


batting on to ensure a draw at worst would be negative in my eyes and it does teams no favours in the long run(WI v eng series when strauss was captain if you want the perfect example)


I'm really asking if an earlier declaration would have been justified to get more overs at them.

Report frog2 August 29, 2017 6:23 PM BST
Its true it is the Ashes that count. They will clearly win this series no problem.
Report Injera August 29, 2017 6:23 PM BST
Need to get these runs quickly. Big shadows now.
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:24 PM BST

Aug 29, 2017 -- 12:22PM, Richard LL wrote:


I'm slightly suprised to be watching an unscheduled day/night test match.


years ago pre-floodlights they'd have been off for light quite some time ago

Report Whisperingdeath August 29, 2017 6:24 PM BST
I was at the Oval when Cry Baby Clarke made a sporting declaration. England could have won the game if they thought about the light but they also did not get the win because of stupid rules. If you can play then play ffs! I have played past 9pm on occaision and at times in darkness

And

That my friend Sageform is the point of Sport!
Report tyco161 August 29, 2017 6:26 PM BST
WI going to try and finish this before any slow tactics by the English. Nice going, good game.
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:26 PM BST
but they've been taken off for bad light even under lights in the past
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:27 PM BST
dead ball wtf
Report Cardinal Scott August 29, 2017 6:27 PM BST
Saffers or Australia or India in same boat would not have pulled off this..... Utterly Sensational!
Report tyco161 August 29, 2017 6:27 PM BST
WTF, ump was wrong there. Batter tried to play a shot.
Report Whisperingdeath August 29, 2017 6:28 PM BST
exactley and we are in 2017 thank the Lord!
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:28 PM BST
Mikey gonna have a word with Ravi afterwardsGrin
Report DAN1974 August 29, 2017 6:28 PM BST
start the car
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:28 PM BST
yeah man
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:28 PM BST
mikey will be out there kicking the stumps if it costs them (it wont) Grin
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:29 PM BST
all tuk tuks to leeds
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:29 PM BST
wondersobright    29 Aug 17 18:28 
mikey will be out there kicking the stumps if it costs them (it wont) Grin

he'd get a hernia these daysGrin
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:30 PM BST
Laugh
Report Whisperingdeath August 29, 2017 6:31 PM BST
When I was 11 years old i was taught to walk in from behind the boundary and ensure they could not hit it over your head. Rubbish fielding from Moen!
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:32 PM BST
any of u guys ever had ur a/c hacked?
smn hacked mine this morning and wrote this b0llocksLaugh

johnnythebull    29 Aug 17 10:28 
that was an absolutely abject,shambolic,dispirited,spineless display of bowling as you'll ever have the misfortune to behold by Windies yesterday afternoon..160 odd runs added with total impunity for one wkt down after the 7th wkt had fallen
the amount of free 4s ceded was beyond disgraceful
this side are a rudderless rabble
NO way they survive today
there may be some 'token' resistance but they will eventually crumple like a cheap suit as sure as night follows day
for the odds on hitters free money
Report peckerdunne August 29, 2017 6:33 PM BST
Things changed after the war WD...............Laugh
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:33 PM BST
Laugh
Report Whisperingdeath August 29, 2017 6:33 PM BST
once or twice JohhnyLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Whisperingdeath August 29, 2017 6:34 PM BST
Pecker I still think I could field better than some of these chumps although I can't really throw the ball now. I know I could catch better than many of them. Would back myself with my money too!
Report nc August 29, 2017 6:36 PM BST
shocking call by root
ok if series already won
but to give them this run chase to level it was a crazy decision
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:37 PM BST
quite simply an incredible test match

WI are the longest priced team pre-match (trading around high 20s) to win a test match in over 9 years

the last 67 teams priced 12+ have collectively produced 0 wins

amazing scenes, wd all windies bcks
Report Whisperingdeath August 29, 2017 6:37 PM BST
It was not a shocking decision.

Who died?
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:38 PM BST
Eng backersGrin
Report nc August 29, 2017 6:39 PM BST
catching has been awful in this match
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:39 PM BST
another shocking dropped catch
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:39 PM BST
Stokes morphed into Cook
Report Whisperingdeath August 29, 2017 6:40 PM BST
I think he got the pitch wrong

Over estimated his bowlers

Underestimated the WI batters ( and who could blame him for that! )

So what! Think he would do that against Aus or India?...NO!

Anyone going to Lords? Maybe now!
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:41 PM BST
will Eng be priced up as skinny at Lords or more reasonably?
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 6:41 PM BST
I reckon around 1/3-1/4 johnny WI will be double figs again but starting with a 1 this time
Report bunneh August 29, 2017 6:42 PM BST
eng will win easy at lords
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:42 PM BST
Eng free money now
last 5 WI wkts down for 1Grin
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:43 PM BST
wasn't actually an easy run chase re the rr so WD
Report Whisperingdeath August 29, 2017 6:44 PM BST
322 is a great score to win a Test match on the last day anywhere in the world, well done WI!
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:45 PM BST
didn't look at the records
but how many times have Widies won at home latterly?
Report Whisperingdeath August 29, 2017 6:46 PM BST
They need to look athe the light rules because this was a big success!
Report peckerdunne August 29, 2017 6:46 PM BST
Superb stuff...........

Really enjoyable

Test cricket revival...........good for the game
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:47 PM BST
Mikey's made up..will be having a few Red Stripes or possibly smth strongerWink with the boys
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:48 PM BST
dude a ringer for the Ox at the Arse
Report peckerdunne August 29, 2017 6:50 PM BST
The leaf is blazin this night................Laugh
Report johnnythebull August 29, 2017 6:52 PM BST
yeah manGrin
Report Foinavon August 29, 2017 7:11 PM BST
Shai Hope Man of the Match. Well done that man.
Report Foinavon August 29, 2017 7:16 PM BST
Some ridiculous pre-match prices in hindsight. I was looking to back England or lay draw at the time and couldn't see a bet so didn't get involved. Learned the lesson not to come with preconceived ideas as the market was screaming lay England, back West Indies. Well done to those who accepted the challenge.
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 7:20 PM BST
what prices would you have had them then?? given all the info we had BEFORE the start of this test

I think of the people who suggested WI were too big were looking to trade out at shorter during the game (which they did and wd to them)
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 7:24 PM BST
eng 1/8
draw 12/1
WI 25/1

approximately the pre-match odds

which price or prices are ridiculous there??
Report Cardinal Scott August 29, 2017 8:16 PM BST
My 1st post in this thread is me talking bout me sticking £50 on Windies at 30's and calling it a recreational bet ...I did that and it was a recreational bet.

With all the excitement I fotgot to watch the matched amount must have gone well over 50 Mill which I have not seen before on a test match.
Report wondersobright August 29, 2017 8:27 PM BST
wd CS

did you lay any of it back for a profit on other outcomes or just left the £50 @ 30s??
Report Cardinal Scott August 29, 2017 8:31 PM BST

Aug 29, 2017 -- 2:27PM, wondersobright wrote:


wd CSdid you lay any of it back for a profit on other outcomes or just left the £50 @ 30s??


It got lost in all my other trades which probably reached over 1000 bets submitted during the 5 days on here...I won big in the end but it wasn't a train for me.....yesterday I nearly went red.

Report detraveller August 29, 2017 10:07 PM BST
Well done windies. How many catches did England drop?
Report Foinavon August 29, 2017 10:13 PM BST
wondersobright
29 Aug 17 19:24
Joined: 13 Jun 06 | Topic/replies: 43,261 | Blogger: wondersobright's blog
eng 1/8
draw 12/1
WI 25/1

approximately the pre-match odds

which price or prices are ridiculous there??


I wasn't prepared to back England at 1/3 the previous match thinking it was too skinny so I ought to have been prepared to lay at 1/8. The market was heavily influenced by the previous result and the fact that you won't see 1/8 pre-match for the third test shows that the price was wrong.
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH August 29, 2017 10:32 PM BST

Aug 29, 2017 -- 12:46PM, peckerdunne wrote:


Superb stuff...........Really enjoyable Test cricket revival...........good for the game


agreed !! Root was also superb in creating a fantastic match !! he has definitely, yet ironically, gained respect from the cricketing pundits /  gurus etc.........

Report Whisperingdeath August 30, 2017 4:35 AM BST
Absolutely!

But I do think criticism of the England team has been stifled too. I think we got huge problems in aus this winter. I can see the likes of Starc, Cummins and Hazlewood blowing us away at times and their iffy batting making hay while the sun shines and we ain't got no swing!

Where is Butler?

Shirley Hameed needs prepping for the tour?

I would have given Mason Crane a go rather than Malan whom we do not need when we have Butler ( is he injured or something? ).
Report wondersobright August 30, 2017 10:01 AM BST
foinavon

I wasn't prepared to back England at 1/3 the previous match thinking it was too skinny
fair enough, that's your opinion

funnily enough I did back england @ 1/3 at edgbaston (not a single) but the only time I saw england that big was when hills initially went up and it didn't last when other prices came out as it was well out of line!! england were sub 1.2 on here at the start of their innings

The market was heavily influenced by the previous result
I agree it was influenced but it was right to be influenced imo
I expected england to win comfortably at edgbaston but WI were so tame and everything about their performance was pitifully bad

you could argue that 1/8 represented a bit of an overreaction (matter of opinion and tbh I disagree)

my opinion is that the threat of rain at edgbaston held the draw price down there and meant england were artificially bigger for the 1st test because of this...circumstances which weren't present at headingley as the f/c was for pretty much 5 days of uninterrupted play (if needed) and headingley is traditionally a high result frequency venue in england anyway

the fact that you won't see 1/8 pre-match for the third test shows that the price was wrong
this is tosh

you cannot use future prices to backfit an argument about prices for a match that has happened in the past

its a completely different test, played at a different ground, different weather f/c etc and we have new information from headingley (principally that WI can be at least competitive if they apply themselves through the test which wasn't apparent at all after edgbaston)

really interested to hear what prices you would have had all 3 outcomes at in a 100% book as there was lots of juicy and obvious value to be had if you felt 1/8 england was so wrong
Report pxb August 30, 2017 11:47 AM BST
I can see this England team struggling in Aus. Anderson and Broad look past it to me. Aus batting isn't that great at the mo, but bowling a class above.
Report Foinavon August 30, 2017 11:51 AM BST
Value in Test cricket is subjective because of its unpredictable nature, unlike a coin toss where it is defined mathematically.
There is a massive difference between 1/8 and the 1/3 or even the pre-match low of around 1/4 at Edgbaston. If you think 1/8 was value then fair enough, I don't. Visiting teams often perform under par in the first Test of a series and some improvement is to be expected. I would not have backed England at 1/5 (which is where I expected it to be) let alone 1/8
We don't know what the weather will be at Lords yet but if the conditions turn out to be similar I think England will be priced around 1.25 to 1.3. I would back them at 1.3 assuming the weather prediction is good enough for the loss of no more than two sessions.
Report wondersobright August 30, 2017 12:25 PM BST
so you would have priced england @ 1/5 in a 100% book?
and the draw and WI prices out of interest?

If you think 1/8 was value then fair enough
I haven't said that
my view is that 1/8 was not ridiculous (as in far shorter than it should have been)
even laying 1/5 I think you would have been filled in and I doubt in the long run you could have won laying england @ 1/5 in that game
Report Fatslogger August 30, 2017 12:25 PM BST
I've had a grand total on England at 1.31, 1.34 and even a bit of 1.36 for the final test. The market over reacted to the first test, perhaps, as if first test prices correct, you'd expect an annihilation quite a lot of the time so could argue that one eventuating shouldn't have changed things that much. Pxb's original point about not expecting each test to follow the pattern of the last one is a very good one and England's recent home record is of swingy games and series so in that sense it's easy to say now that WI were amazing value around 30. It would, however, also be correct to say that this result was seriously astonishing, given how bad WI generally are on tour and that England mostly puts the weaker sides away at home rather comfortably. I've won a fair bit backing the opposition the test after a solid England win (didn't do so after the first test against SA though) but didn't remotely see this one coming. Don't think I'll be backing a side at under 1.2 again though, pre match.
Report wondersobright August 30, 2017 12:29 PM BST
I wouldn't consider the difference between the edgbaston and headingley prices to be solely down to the WI edgbaston performance
like I said, I consider that to be draw related more than anything although undoubtedly it was a factor as WI were bigger odds for headingley than they were for edgbaston

lords I will consider the prices much nearer the time when the weather f/c is clearer
but instinctively I'd consider england 1/3+ a fair bet for lords granted a toss win & a reasonable f/c
Report detraveller August 30, 2017 12:29 PM BST
One things for sure, England will get embarrassed in Aus. Stokes and Root the only two players who look good. And of course England have no spinner.
Report wondersobright August 30, 2017 12:30 PM BST
the correct score markets will be interesting det
or the hcaps, be interesting to see the prices for -2 and even -3 aus
Report Foinavon August 30, 2017 2:15 PM BST
In percentage terms I would have thought 83 Eng 11 draw 6 WI which is around 1.2/9/17

1.2 is the price at which I would have neither backed nor layed. As it was I left it alone as I came with the preconceived notion of backing Eng or laying draw and neither price was attractive.
Report mafeking August 30, 2017 2:18 PM BST
england very inconsistent but oz no great shakes as evidenced again today and less than 12 months ago they were annihilated by what is probably the poorest south africa side since readmission. like england they have 2 top class batsmen but the rest of the top 7 is full of no names who wouldn't scare anyone. sure on their own decks they will find it easier

gotta remember even on the last shambolic last tour england had a stronger batting line up than the current one 150/5 or worse in virtually every 1st inns then brad haddin came in and got 50+ every time

would imagine there will be some very short tests with neither batting line up that strong. the massive advantage oz do have is that england nearly always lose in brisbane and perth where they struggle to deal with the extra bounce. if they can limit the damage in those 2 test then they have a chance
Report detraveller August 30, 2017 2:25 PM BST
In my opinion, oz know perfectly well how bad they are. England should Be thabkful  to root and windies for making them realise, but I still don't think Ebgöand know how bad they are. They will realise that when they are down under. Fear the day the tail doesn't wag.
Report wondersobright August 30, 2017 2:46 PM BST

Aug 30, 2017 -- 8:15AM, Foinavon wrote:


In percentage terms I would have thought 83 Eng 11 draw 6 WI which is around 1.2/9/171.2 is the price at which I would have neither backed nor layed. As it was I left it alone as I came with the preconceived notion of backing Eng or laying draw and neither price was attractive.


ok cheers

that's not a bad mindset to approach the market tbf and I'm happy to accept those prices although they are between 2-5% out from the prices on here pre-match so I wouldn't call that deviation ridiculous

Report Injera August 30, 2017 3:52 PM BST
Oz have injury concerns to Starc and now Hazlewood (side strain).

They lack the bowling depth we have. There can't be any confidence in either batting lineup.

The Gabba is a graveyard for England. Only a miracle from Cook and Trott saved us in 2010 when we went onto win 3-1. Perth is unkind too. Lose at the Gabba and I reckon we're toast.
Report mafeking August 30, 2017 3:59 PM BST
not absolutely certain but think we've lost every series since the war when we've lost the first test
Report mafeking August 30, 2017 4:00 PM BST
actually saved by a deluge on day 5 in 1998 but still lost the series. point still stands though we almost certainly must avoid defeat in brisbane
Report Whisperingdeath August 30, 2017 4:26 PM BST
Smith and Warner I'll give you but raise you Renshaw and Handscombe who might not be world beaters but are dilligent, stoic and not untalented if a little boring. They could well score runs if the sun shines imho.

It all is set up for some good betting possibilities I think.

Broad and Anderson can look like Luke Skywalker and a Pakistani Magician at times but on others they looked like tired out medium pace trundlers. I can see us skittling them and being hit for 500 in equal measure.

Timing is everything.
Report Injera August 30, 2017 5:20 PM BST
Weather key too. Damp and chilly in Melbourne 2010. Oz inserted and 98 a.o. Jimmy and Trem 8 between them.
Report geordie1956 August 30, 2017 5:48 PM BST
Assuming they are both fit I would definitely have Wood and Woakes in the squad...Wood has that bit of pace which we will undoubtedly need out there...as problematic as the batting might be in some key positions the bowling yesterday left me worried for the Winter
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