CT2017 - 1st Semi-final: England v Pakistan at Cardiff

What's your book at the moment Charlie? Aren't you massive red? Exactly what I predicted has happened, so surely it's been impossible to trade?

Not having a dig, just curious.

Not massive, but a big red.

And that four didn't help.

Not impossible to trade at any odds.

Currently just under evens on England which is not ideal.

aussies choked..Saffers choked..Eng outdoing both
never had a cat in hell's chance
with their pub bowlers

And now pushed panic button which is really too early for me. Still lots of ammo left though this time.

Pak growing into this competition
won't say they'll be an absolute shoo-in against Bangla but will take some stopping!!

And let's not forget that £500 at 6's can get get you out a bit if needs be.

And if you push that up to 8's then you shouldn't lose.

I hope India do not win this tourney, Indian Nationalism is so Ugly and it's Growing!

Don't know what Indian Nationalism is.

Charlie • June 14, 2017 3:36 PM BST
And let's not forget that £500 at 6's can get get you out a bit if needs be.
Report Charlie • June 14, 2017 3:40 PM BST
And if you push that up to 8's then you shouldn't lose.

What??

What what?

hubristic bottling England getting owned
The Alamo pales into insignificance

Sodi
I think we're on different planets.

£500 what at 6's and what at 8's?

You just backed England 1.4 and below

Then mentioned Pak at 1.36

So I don't know how you're going to get level or even trade the rest of this.

The £500 @ 6's can get you out? Doesn't make sense to me.

THIS IS EPIC BONELESS WONDERYYY

I was referring to backing Pakistan at short odds after taking a big red. I like a get out out plan. £500 at 6's would have helped - could red or gamble. Same stake at 8's would obviously be better.

Sodi
These are average odds: backed England 3.35, backed Pakistan 1.19, laid Pakistan 1.7. Stakes are considerably different.

11 Theresa Mays could not have performed as lamentably as this uber overrated shower

Currently still slightly red. 1.03 gets me green. £500 at 6's makes position tenable. £500 at 8's more so and is the odds where regardless of what you've done before you shouldn't lose.

not out for me

If who hits 6's or 8's? Waiting for Pak to hit that?

How does Pak 1.03 make you all green

Sodi I'm struggling to explain this to you but I'll try.

There only two things are odds and stakes.

In English: the only two things are odds and stakes.

oh my. Taken a beating her. 118-0 Pakistan! Wtf?

Surely Pak dont fk it up from here. Is this a dream? Or is this the reality?

Sodi

I'm honestly trying to answer your questions. What don't you understand?

I think you need to tell him that you've screwed your balls on this so you've put up 30k on Pakistan at 1.1 and need them to hit 1.03 to get even.

I think he's confused about you wanting Pakistan 1.03 when you are basically in this position because of them winning.

Stokie has spanked us again i see.

Pakistan LOVE Cardiff, turned over England here last september when Eng were sub 1.1, monday of course and now this train.

I'm no where near 30k on this. All I can say is two biggest bet by far were Pakistan at 1.36 and 1.1.

Jun 14, 2017 -- 4:13PM, Charlie wrote:

I'm no where near 30k on this. All I can say is two biggest bet by far were Pakistan at 1.36 and 1.1.

I hope yoiu use 2 Step Authentication if you have a huge betting bank!

And now I'm green

And cashed out.

Most disappointing performance from England that I've ever seen

You can't be green ffs, it's been a train and you're on England sub 1.4

And now I'm safe I would like to know a bit more Sodi. Explain please why you're doubting what I said?

I just can't understand it. It's been a one way train, so how are you green, I'm interested more than doubtful.
Can you PM me all your bets?

Sodi I don't lose my temper very often but you're pushing me. You're either a wind up merchant, a cnt (highly probable) or thick. Odds and amount. What don't you understand?

I'll PM you of course I will. I'll place your bets for you and if they they lose will pay your debts.

You winding me up?!

You backed England for lots sub 1.4 .... three times.

Then are somehow all green, yet it being a one way train explain your bets?

Charlie I can hear you swear while typing

Jun 14, 2017 -- 4:23PM, Charlie wrote:

I'll PM you of course I will. I'll place your bets for you and if they they lose will pay your debts.

Is that offer open to everyone

He can be green if he used ever escalting stakes ......like 20X & more, 30X ...I've done it myself in the past.

Jun 14, 2017 -- 4:24PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:

He can be green if he used ever escalting stakes ......like 20X & more, 30X ...I've done it myself in the past.

Very Dangerous Game I might add!

That's what he did, like he said. But Sodi doesn't get it.

Cardinal - if that's the way people go though, it's hardly trading, it's just loading on small odds? which when eventually it goes wrong you lose the lot?!

Jun 14, 2017 -- 4:25PM, Sodiology wrote:

Cardinal - if that's the way people go though, it's hardly trading, it's just loading on small odds? which when eventually it goes wrong you lose the lot?!

Yes. That's why I said earlier that when you are asking people for advice, you need to know their betting style.

I just don't get the point of trading if you're gonna load on pak at 1.1?
Might as well not trade and just back short odds?!

Jun 14, 2017 -- 4:25PM, Sodiology wrote:

Cardinal - if that's the way people go though, it's hardly trading, it's just loading on small odds? which when eventually it goes wrong you lose the lot?!

Yes it'll work and keep on working but there will be a time where it won't work and then it will kill you!

Sodi - first Forum Rule.

1. No one loses on Betfair.

Sodi.
I forgive you. You have no idea what you're talking about. Wind up merchant. Now fck off.

But saying that I'll be pleased to see you on the forum more often. So will apologise and hope to see you tomorrow and will admit what you said earlier was prophetic but not useful.

So maybe first paragraph was wrong.

By contrar with Charlie, I've just just taken my £5k loss. Oops.

Contrast even.

Jun 14, 2017 -- 1:43PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:

No LBW dismissals, I always look out for that when talk is of tricky pitch!

Sorry I was referring to Charlie when I meant fats, as he was the one who kept going in low.

Although Charlie you did say 1.38 on England.

SODIOLOGY,,I TOTALLY AGREE WITH U,,WHAT U HAVE SAID ABOUT CHARLIE..

When comms are talking down the pitch, look at number LBW dismissals and LBW shouts

Sodi I think I have posted every bet I have made today. There may be a few I haven't though. The issue is not about the bets made it's about the stake made.

Maybe Sodi is just trolling the forum today. We've never seen him before here.

I been here years mate.

Maybe. I have no issues with him and can see where he's coming from. Consistenly posting will tell.

Not gonna read the thread so apologies if posted already...

We're the home side. We won our group. Our strength is power hitting. So why the hell are we playing in Cardiff on a used pitch?????

Morgan's criticism of Lord's v SA was poor but there he would be perfectly justified.

Sodi, you here for the long term?

a wkt been celebrated
as if it were a good ball
it was f*cking crap
begging to be smote
over the boundary
just poorly executed
Eng you are as big an embarrassment
as your footballing peers
you can both do one

Johnny why dont your poems rhyme?

I know Haikus dont have to rhyme but this one isn't a haiku either.

Sodi you fainted or what? Here for the long term?

well played Pakistan..dismissed and dissed by the so called cognoscenti
in hindsight maybe it wasn't that great an achievement
to beat such a capitulative overrated team of non performing flat track bully handjobs!

Embarrassment to the country today ....

Outnumbered at home ....

Played pathetically ....

Changes needed.

I'd echo that. Apart from thought England would win easiy.

I said right at the toss Pakistan win this. I said after the first over I could see the right Pakistan had turned up. I knew the bowlers will kill England in the later stages.

I still lost

I can trade Windies v Afghan with freedom now

bowlers win matches..find some England!

I need to thank whoever made the post saying they could see England at evens and in trouble??

They made me make a bet. Just the one and it worked

Sodi so are you here for the long haul or just a one off?

One off. Rarely get time with work. What other forums do you post on?

Nothing really. Occasionally chit chat and footy.

And very occasional Politics.

Sometimes in the mood for a verbal punch-up.

Sodi why question my integrity?

Just read all threads where Sodi has previously posted. As is to be expected with anyone some negative comments but nothing at all to suggest he's a troll. Genuinely seems an honest bloke.

Also reread all posts on this thread. Abuse comes from me not him.

The main issue between us seems to be me betting short odds on both teams along with some, in my opinion, snidey remarks from him. Believe it or not I'd rather not do it (bet both teams at short odds) and it may well be the way to the poor house. 

I'm not trying to defend myself as I have nothing to defend - it's my money and I'll do what the fck I want with it - but will try and justify the idea. Now I've written the last sentence justification does seem a tad tricky but it raises an interesting point (for me): Are all bets at the same odds equal in worth? E.g. is a back (or lay) at say 1.4 the start of the first innings the same as an equivalent bet at some stage in the second innings? This is leading me back as to what is "value"?

It will take some time to finish this, I'll try again tomorrow.

I may be sh!te at betting and explaining it but at least I'm honest about it. Question my methods by all means but please don't question my integrity they're not the same things.

Not read the thread.

My thoughts with regard to England are very negative. They are a much vaunted bunch of blokes and rightly so. They get all the help financially and technically. How on earth did they let that happen. I saw the SL game at Cardiff. It was bleedin obvious. This thing about biffing the ball around may be part of the problem.

That sort of pitch is my sort of pitch. Without bulging biceps you have to think about how and where you get your runs. From my experience which was a long time ago I remember it is hard to cream it though the covers, over the top or cut and pull with any degree of certainty. You don't try and hit 4's. Just pork it around. Drop the ball and run. Place between the fielders and run. Wait for a bad ball. Get he field in close to stop you stealing runs and then try and hit it hard when they come in through gaps with huge power or over the top. When they come in close hit it directly at them and hard. We were truly awful and the thinking let us down.

India v Pakistan! Forget me! Could be huge. I wouldn't be surprised if Pakistan won but just cannot see it at the Oval particularly if Pakisatn bat first.

This is good for cricket and ashley good for England!

Charlie I enjoy reading your posts and, for what it's worth, don't think anybody was bringing your integrity into question. You enunciate your bets as the game progresses and fair play to you for doing that, I don't personally most of the time, one cause I'm superstitious and two I would get shot down in flames. Having said that Sodmi was obviously a snidey fooker who needs a good kicking (joke).
P.s how's the neighbours ?

Money
Thanks for that. It was all down to me getting a little, shall we say, over-excited.

Funny you should ask about my neighbours. Toward the end of the match yesterday there was a knock on my door. It was said neighbour and his  eight or nine year old son. First thing he said was "nice shorts" which was close but were actually boxers. He then said he'd kicked all his footballs over into my garden and could he have them back. I said no problem, went in to back garden had a mooch around and found six or seven balls which I threw back to him. About two minutes later there was another knock on the door. This time it was the son by himself with two cans of Fosters for me!

As I said previously they are good neighbours apart from the few hours a week when they put their music on.

Cardinal Scott
14 Jun 17 15:41

I hope India do not win this tourney, Indian Nationalism is so Ugly and it's Growing!


Ohh Your Eminence,

We need to keep matters of God and State out of the conversation. I have to say I hope India win this Tourney or Bangladesh as I don't like Pakistan!

Having said that and I can't say this because we don't get political on here ( but I agree with your last satement ).

As always, interested in how Charlie trades a game and how abusive he gets as it goes on; the hole gets deeper and the drink kicks in more. It probably needs its own thread but I do wonder whether the key to it is that there's a lot of value backing the chasing side at short odds chasing a sub optimal total, which is when you'll be in trouble. Or it may just be that with the escalating stakes option available for several consecutive setbacks, you've just remained lucky long enough. Assuming that a whole bank loss has been very rare in a long career of doing this though, we probably ought to look for a different explanation than just luck.

Personally I'm neither disciplined enough to start small nor ballsy enough to go so deep, so not the trading approach for me. I just quietly lose on bowling first, wiping out the batting side then chasing easily trains. Course, if SL had just held their catches against Pakistan I'd probably have won more that game than I lost this one so there is an upside in the batting side losing wickets and getting me quite red on the bowling side, it just didn't materialise this game.

England        1.36    100    Back    14/06/2017 10:06    -100
England        1.39    100    Back    14/06/2017 10:21    -100
England        1.41    30    Back    14/06/2017 10:59    -30
England        1.42    20    Back    14/06/2017 10:59    -20
England        1.53    100    Back    14/06/2017 11:35    -100
England        1.55    40    Back    14/06/2017 12:22    -40
England        1.59    30    Back    14/06/2017 12:22    -30
England        1.6    20    Back    14/06/2017 12:25    -20
England        1.58    100    Back    14/06/2017 12:26    -100
England        1.84    60    Back    14/06/2017 12:37    -60
England        1.81    100    Back    14/06/2017 12:38    -100
Pakistan    1.7    100    Lay    14/06/2017 13:21    -70
Pakistan    1.69    100    Lay    14/06/2017 13:24    -69
Pakistan    1.56    100    Lay    14/06/2017 13:35    -56
Pakistan    1.68    50    Lay    14/06/2017 13:26    -34
Pakistan    1.36    4000    Back    14/06/2017 15:02    1440
England        4.6    1000    Back    14/06/2017 15:11    -1000
Pakistan    1.1    8000    Back    14/06/2017 15:27    800
England        48    86.8    Back    14/06/2017 16:16    -86.8
England        48    86.1    Back    14/06/2017 16:16    -86.1

Catalogues of shame! Did that amount to a ton win or so?

Less than that when stuff is removed but wasn't about winning it was about not losing. I was about a grand down and didn't want to lose. It's a stance I have for most if not every game. The figures look horrific but aren't that bad in my opinion. If I swap sides I'm prepared to lose twice what I would have lost by not swapping. I consider that a bargain.

Hopefully some of my ramblings about 6's and 8's will make a bit of sense. Once I'm committed (backing at 1.1) if things go wrong which in this case would have been a Pakistani collapse then £500 @ 8's seriously reduces debt. It's also game on and I'm confident I can worm my way out. It's not that dangerous even if the worst that could happen did as there's always the option to red (but I'm not keen on that). It's not an all-in system.

This isn't the same as what I did betting on the NZ-Bangladesh game. There I bet at 1.07/8 for no good reason. That was a mistake.

I'm sure smarter people than me will tell me where I'm going wrong. To be honest I don't give a fook.

£500 at 8's being a bet on England.

And while I'm here FS regarding me being abusive.

I'm rarely abusive towards other posters regardless of how much drink I've had. If I am it's normally because I feel aggrieved at what someone is saying or has said. In this case someone telling me that what I was doing was impossible, in effect calling me a liar, eventually got to me. Read the posts and you'll find that I wasn't trying to be confrontational for a good while. But in much the same way that I go for it in betting I'll go for it when replying to posts. I did try to apologise several times (maybe half-arsed but I at least made an attempt).

I have no ill feeling toward Sodi and would like to see him post again. 

Swearing is something I do a lot when betting. I rarely swear when out and I'm very, very careful not to swear in hearing distance of someone who I consider may be offended by it. I may well be a an ex-forces working-class oik but I'm not all bad. This is a gambling forum and swearing is acceptable in my opinion.

Dude you don't need to make an apology or post your bets. I think many people on this forum are honest I trust them if they say they did something. I also think most people are also curteous.

Sorry Charlie, wasn't being entirely serious and I've certainly no problem with sweariness.

On your gambling I remain somewhat in awe and somewhat wondering where the catch is. Certainly you did far better than me this game but then I got overexcited and bet too much in the face of a train.

Charlie, nothing untoward I can see.

Doubling down is something I do on Tests if I get in jam, but a dangerous game. More power to you if you can make it work.

My final apology!

I realise I am becoming overly tetchy recently and reading too much into things. So sorry to all concerned.

Since I put up the figures two things have been bugging me. It's took me well over an hour this morning and just goes to show how stupid I am at times. The first was FS's remark about all the effort required for winning a ton. Well I hadn't even won that much but thought it was down to commission. But the feeling wouldn't go away that something didn't seem right. The second was my posting of average lay figures for Pakistan at 1.7 at 15:54 :

These are average odds: backed England 3.35, backed Pakistan 1.19, laid Pakistan 1.7. Stakes are considerably different.

I only had four lays of Pakistan the highest was 1.7 the lowest 1.56 so no way could the average be 1.7. I double checked and treble checked the figures but couldn't see what was wrong. In my mind Betfair had clearly fcked up and had got the sub-total for Pakistani lays wrong. But I have quite a lot of faith in Betfair so decided to check everything again. Starting with this blog to see if any clues were there.   

Charlie • June 14, 2017 1:12 PM BST
I'm on England at 1.56 and laid Pakistan at 1.88 so not entirely happy.. Was it possible I'd made this up and went to lay them but bet wasn't taken? I do try and be accurate when I post though. 

I go back to the Profit & Loss Statement for the game but there is no sign of a lay of Pakistan at 1.88. I click the Average odds on option On and Off a few times but nothing there. Then I notice the right-hand scroll bar and give it a tug down and lo and behold there's another page:

Pakistan    1.88    100    Lay    14/06/2017 12:54    -88   

What a tw@t I am.

You eventually clocked the error and reflected on your betting. I'm bad at both. Think I've got a bit too excited about a run of success and breached my previous approach to limited overs cricket, which was that I wasn't totally sure I was good at it and bet relatively small amounts accordingly.

Right time is NOW ...Surrey Lay 1.34

^ Wrong Thread ^