India v Australia - 1st Test at Pune

Feb 24, 2017 -- 2:32PM, Foinavon wrote:

Thanks Fatslogger. My biggest lay was at 8 so nowhere near, unfortunately. Needed another partnership.

That it was available for anything you could remotely make money on is a bit amazing, looking back. The market was wise to the state of the pitch rather more than it sometimes is. Another regret this match is not just laying the draw massively early on although I did lay it pretty hard, to be fair. Given that my opening actions were mostly lays of Australia, I suppose I've done fairly well since to be in any kind of shape.

Actually, was worse than that. My first five bets were:

Lay Aus at 5 for £500
Back draw 4.5, 4.7, 4.9 for £500
Lay Aus at 4.1 for £500

Well I never!

I feared a decent Aus batting counter attack at least once in this series or India getting caught on a minefield but did not imagine a first innings capitulation. I did not watch much today and I am glad I didn't as I would have lost a lot of money. This looks like a train wreck for some but I did. George Michael Young Guns .......... caution pays! Only had a minuscule bet. Will let it ride and cash out for a smaller loss if enough people believe in miracles. Game over for me. Well done Aus. We might get better prices on India next match and might go nut deep ante post.

Glad India have got the worst of the pitch. They have the better spinners and didn't have to even the odds by producing a dry pitch that favours the team winning the toss by so much!

That it was available for anything you could remotely make money on is a bit amazing, looking back

I expected India to do a lot better than they did, perhaps Kohli did too.
My initial pre-match draw lay, alluded to in the first post on this thread was at 4.2 and I later cleared the red at 15.
Was hoping for a second bite of the cherry but not to be.

Well done to the brains trust. PMSL what a set a losers you lot are. Stick to betting on tiddlywinks.

I'm in a good position on Aus with just small reds on India and draw, after some good trades early yesterday.

Aus losing this looks very unlikely. They could get another 100 from here, which should be way out of India's reach, batting last.

Well done WD for another accurate assessment. You couldn't make it up.

Foinavon, draw went to 11 early in India's innings, before the 1st wicket I think. I know because I just missed a draw lay at 10.5.

Thanks pxb, I'm interested to see how India fare in their second innings although it's likely to be a lost cause when they get the chance.

Smith having Moeen Ali type luck

Winviz has Aus winning by over 200 runs. Will take something remarkable for India to come even close.

We can safely assume no more rank turners in this series.

Aus won't mind batting out most of the day if they can.

India really suffering from terrible DRS usage

Starc doing it again.

India's odds have hardly moved since the start of the day. Just goes to show if Aus had been rolled their odds would have plummeted.

Amla's just dropped me a load of cash

Soon the draw will swap odds with India. I've got a massive red on the draw that I might need to cover soon.

Why cover the draw red Jucel? No way this is a draw.

That wicket has eased my draw worries

Feb 25, 2017 -- 5:36AM, tyco161 wrote:

Why cover the draw red Jucel? No way this is a draw.

Because I have 20k red on the draw & it was just starting to tweak me. You can imagine all sorts of crazy things at times

More chance of me playing for India than the draw happening and i'm fooking English.

haha yes I can imagine, yep that is the problem chasing short odds.... the mind starts to do messy things and starts conjuring up rain from the Sahara to dump on Pune :)

but its only day 3 with 60 overs to go... so no way this is a draw :)

Feb 25, 2017 -- 5:39AM, tyco161 wrote:

haha yes I can imagine, yep that is the problem chasing short odds.... the mind starts to do messy things and starts conjuring up rain from the Sahara to dump on Pune :)

India should be at least 10s

NZ under the pump in the ODI, can't see them getting close, on a difficult pitch

The market always loves India.

no NZ's only hope is a huge partnership from these 2. Tempted to start laying India at some stage soon. Have not pulled the trigger yet but then again... backing short odds not really my thing.

5s

I've backed SAF.

Draw should be 500 in this match. But India 20/0 and they will be at 5.

If you back Aus, you have to stop looking at the odds if India have a good start. Otherwise you could start making mistakes

Who in their right mind would be backing India now at 4/1. I do have a feeling that Aus could be a big price before tea. 1.5ish

Who in their right mind would be backing India now at 4/1.

I'll take a wild guess and say "Indians".

Feb 25, 2017 -- 5:51AM, pxb wrote:

Who in their right mind would be backing India now at 4/1.I'll take a wild guess and say "Indians".

It's nuts but will continue to get shorter quickly if they get off to a good start.

38 overs bowled in the session!

Would it be fair to say if SOK outperforms Nathan Lyon, he will be the number 1 test spinner and possibly take on the mantle as head spinner for say an Ashes series?

^^ Outperforms in this series

Feb 25, 2017 -- 6:02AM, East_Coast_Eagle wrote:

Would it be fair to say if SOK outperforms Nathan Lyon, he will be the number 1 test spinner and possibly take on the mantle as head spinner for say an Ashes series?

Nah, he's still just a roller

Test match ending today paying 4/1

min 51 overs left

India need a World record run chase . Lead currently 439 for Aussies.....odds on India at 5.60

This is defo a bank job on Aus and turn off for a few days. If you watch the odds it could send you bonkers

Any run predictions here?

Time not an issue. Going to stick my head out and say India can make 300 runs or they will be bowled out today.

think 300 runs for India 2nd innings run should be the line

Kane out

Actually I take back my statement, India won't be bowled out today.

I agree with jucel. I have a modest Aus back in the 1.3s. If it goes higher I'll hit it big.

They will fight back, will bat with a bit more patience in 2nd innings.

Taylor out too, cloverland

Now Taylor out. All over for NZ you'd say.

Feb 25, 2017 -- 6:24AM, pxb wrote:

Now Taylor out. All over for NZ you'd say.

Yeh it's a really difficult deck, all the NZ players are struggling to time the ball.
They have less chance of winning than India!

Some interesting statistics from this game:
Batting v New Ball (the first 20.0 overs): 219/6 (71.0 overs)
Batting v Old Ball (after the 20th over): 431/24 (151.0 overs)

Reflecting back on the game, it was a mistake of India to take the new ball in Australia's first innings. Don't think Steve Smith will take the new ball anytime soon in this match either.

B365 have India 2nd innings run line at 283.5 runs

now down to 282.5 runs

Sunil Gavaskar reckons India will do well to get 300, if they get 350 it will give them confidence for the remaining matches

why the hell are aussies 1.25?
this price has made me empty my betfair account for the first time in ages

and if india get to 40-50 for no wicket, ill be forced to make a deposit and go in again

will hill are 1/4 aussies, no comm.
same price as betfair, thats unreal

yet you can back india runs over 280.5 at 5/6?

i know its nearly 7am but im foookin confused

the wicket is hard to bat on, i think the prices are fair

i personally think it will go overs, India can't bat badly 2 times in a row , surely?

1/4? i make them 1/100

lol india 5/2
aussies 2/7
will hill

India 1 down

Reckon it was worth a review still

Timber

This game may be over but it would be fun to see a hundred run partnership, ideally for the next wicket!

East Coast

Were you someone else before you became an East Coast Eagle?

This could be over today guys

Feb 25, 2017 -- 7:18AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:

East CoastWere you someone else before you became an East Coast Eagle?

Yes , no second guessing for who that was.

well that might well be it,  both reviews gone as well.

ample time left today 43.3 overs, wished I did get on the 4/1 for the test to be over today

Runs line now down to 227.5 with B365

Didn't take nearly enough of the 1.25 - was waiting for chunks at 1.3 and higher so will not quite cover my loss on Aus getting over 150 on second innings runs unless there's a significant recovery. Reckon 120/2 would see Aus 1.3? Suspect the market love might return at that point.

Well, all the pundits were wrong. Aus has smashed India.

This is just embarrassing for India. 8 down now and looks like they will win today.

And the Aus spinners have taken all the 2nd innings wickets.

when was the last time india was bowled out within three days at home
and only scored about 200 runs in 2 innings?

I am struggling with this. I think it would have been conceited to think Aus had no chance in this match but the manner and margin is quite breathtaking. Something not right for me.

My own take was that Aus had a decent top 3 and if Warner kicked off and Renshaw stuck sound Smith could add to their woes and the rest would grow taller.  smith in the second innings and Renshaw in the first is what I am talking bout.

Credit to Aus for having a plan

I am still scratching my head over this. If's.......... I genuinely thought England could give India a match. For me the whole Tour hit a bump when Cook delayed his declaration in the first Test and did not put India under pressure. India have cracked under pressure here.

I do think the dry pitch brought the Aussie spinners to the party. India were hoist on their own petard.....Good!

The England spinners did not get as much help and the gulf in class between the two sets of spinners showed.

I still think Aus look flaky from 4 down. I expect a better pitch in Bangalore with an even contest for 3 days.

This is good for cricket and gambling!

I had reservations about this match and didn't lump on. I could have made a small fortune here by starting with a large one!

Get rid go M Marsh and bring in Agar for me. A bold move which they won't make.

I am not sure what India do. I would replace Saha but don't know who with. Think about getting Sharma out depending on who is available and the type of wicket. Maybe add a batsman.

I have not been able to watch the match or thread properly, glad some of you won big. Hope none of you lost big. I think if you were smart and watching from the off you could......if you had a pair........made a lot of money after the end of day 1. Easy to say in hindsight perhaps as I thought India would make a good score day 2 but the signs were there if you were smart enough. I am not sure I would have been myself but I think a couple of you were, well done oh and to you pxb! Your boys gave one hell of a beating!

Can Australia go on to win the series  ? 2004 was the last time they won in India - almost as long ago as the last time they won in England.

WD, I did say in the OP,

Nobody seems to rate Aus chances, but win the toss and they might make it close.

But I wasn't expecting such a decisive win.

Makes the next game in Bangalore interesting.

Very surprised at this result , most thought Australia would struggle here but their spinners have done the business here big time , lets see now what India are made of.

Harbajhan Singh came out before the game and said Australia would be lucky if they lost the series 0-3.

Karma has a way of coming back to bite us , don't they?

“If Australia play well, India will win 3-0. That is if Australia play well. Otherwise, 4-0,” he said ahead of the first Test against India in Pune starting today.

Wonder what he will come out and say next.

Yes pxb

Win the toss in India and you have a big chance! I think many of us had such a big down on Aus, perhaps rightly so we took our eyes of what was in front of us.... a very dry pitch. Personally I have been up my airse so much recently I have forgotten about the fundamentals of the game.....the pitch and toss are very important. Overlook them at your peril! Oh and the weather. We are in the dryer season I think and that brings Aussie seamers into it more than the English seamers and their two are better than our 3 or 4!

I always thought Aus were capable of winning A Test here batting first and putting up a big total, not like this. I think they worked hard and thought about if after th tour of SL.

not convinced about O'Keefe getting MoM.

a 2nd innings ton in a such a low scoring match on a bunsen is a huge achievement.(cf Gooch's headingley knock against the windies in 1991, where Gooch rightly got it over Daffy)

put it the other way around.

if a bowler took 7-40 on an absolute road in the second innings, while they're were numerous first innings centurions, who would get it?

If he didn't offer so many chances I probably would agree with you DStyle. But point taken, a great innings nonetheless under the conditions.

I fell asleep - what were the highest odds for India whilst Aus were batting? What was the lowest India went to second dig? Did the draw come in at all in the final innings?

Hoping for a flat deck next with a big draw back to lay!

The thing with Agar is, he either has a good game or a bad game and not much in between, while consistency in Test cricket is valued. And I can't see Lyon or Okeefe being replaced on this tour.

My question really was what is the point of Mitchell Marsh in the Test Team? 

Both remaining spinners take the ball away from India's right handlers. We know Agar can bat. Eddie Jones would not keep an unchaged side. Cricket does not like to change a winning team. it would be exciting to see Aus with 3 spinners because I don't think we will get a Bunsen next up. Aus have one very good and one good seamer. That is more than enough but I guess they fear India going after the spinners on a flat wicket.

Yes, you could be right about the pitch. After such a thrashing there are bound to be changes made making it more difficult for us to know what to do
from a betting point of view.

Next Test is at Bangalore, FWIW here's the venue Test history

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/team/match_results.html?class=1;id=683;type=ground

Four draws in the last eight Tests going back to 2001, although only one Test since 2012, a rain-ruined draw vs SA.

Bangalore going to be a slow and low road. Can Australia banish the demons of their Sri Lankan tour by playing the spinners well. Except for Steve Smith there are still major questions marks with their top 6.

Most pressure on Warner IMO, he needs a big score in these conditions otherwise it will confirm my thinking of him as a flat track bully.

1st innings Australia got bailed out by Mitch Starc's cameo late on day 1 which basically setup the match for them.

Having said all that I don't want to downplay Australia's performance. Beating India by over 300 runs in India clearly means they played exceptionally well.

Saved yourself with that last post!