Cricket
Otherwise, Hobart a result venue that should suit SAF as much as Aus. Assuming Rabada isn't rested, Aus look a huge lay.
Nov 14, 2016 -- 12:35AM, slip5 wrote:
grant do you make sure you dont get up early in the morning so you wont get tempted to have a look at the bpl
yes!!!
Nov 14, 2016 -- 12:35AM, anxious wrote:
Abberdonia are you on here again at this time of the night as well
Nov 14, 2016 -- 12:40AM, anxious wrote:
Not me Abberdonia he must have feelings for you
Nov 14, 2016 -- 12:41AM, tomtimtum wrote:
Coop how can steelers win here
they cant
Nov 14, 2016 -- 12:54AM, pxb wrote:
Been a big earthquake in Christchurch. May affect the Test.
They only had one a few years ago too
I'm thinking they might relocate the Test.
Nov 14, 2016 -- 1:07AM, tomtimtum wrote:
Was just thinking the same, very solid and organised
he's got a bit of 'mongrel' in him too, as the aussies say
Nov 14, 2016 -- 7:35AM, pxb wrote:
Aus only 2 down, behind still, and 2 extended days to go. Draw is starting to look like a runner. Although can't see Aus winning this.
My position has improved with some trading and obviously a fair bit of the draw moving in and I've gone flat on the draw to be green SA, although still have a large Aus red. By contrast to you pxb (and to the market), I see the Australia win as rather more likely than the draw. Either needs a lot of batting from Aus but with two extended days to come, it's feasible enough for them to win setting somewhere above 200 with enough time left that draw is a non runner. Assuming normal rates of scoring (fair enough with Warner gone), Aus about 200 on by close tomorrow. They'd need to score faster than that and some on day 5 to set up a declaration offering the carrot of 300 in 75 overs or so mid morning day 5 which does then give the draw real legs but I just don't see them lasting that many overs. Having said that, my analysis does seem to suggest that Aus will really struggle to set up a win without being bowled out and then managing to defend a fairly smal total somewhere under 300 so perhaps the prices are the right way round. SA should be shorter though either way.
That's what I call a Goldilocks Score. Enough, but not too many.
Nov 14, 2016 -- 8:06AM, pxb wrote:
I see the Australia win as rather more likely than the draw. Either needs a lot of batting from Aus but with two extended days to come, it's feasible enough for them to win setting somewhere above 200 with enough time left that draw is a non runner.That's what I call a Goldilocks Score. Enough, but not too many.
I've already made a horrible Goldilocks play this test looking for the draw near 3s.
With a long time left, Aus could up the scoring rate if they bat really well but with so much time left, they similarly can't really afford to take many risks until they're say 150 ahead if only 3 or 4 down well after tea tomorrow and even then it could backfire.
Nov 15, 2016 -- 12:01AM, tomtimtum wrote:
Haven't seen a team bowl this well since I don't know when
Yeh i've had a few cheeky draw bets in double figures that haven't worked!
Was sort of convincing myself that it might ease out and a decent p'ship would develop
next winter should be amusing. they look in utter disarray
Will Aus be favs for the 3rd Test? I suspect they will be. Day-nighter.
Nov 14, 2016 -- 11:15PM, pxb wrote:
Australia settling in for a draw I think.
they did a fine job of it
Nov 15, 2016 -- 12:47AM, GRANTCKING wrote:
SA was buying currency after day 1
Was the Thai not free money in this one?
Got quite a few draw lays in from close yesterday, thinking the prices were a bit low and that I could probably buy back later. Fortunately the draw never got back up to a price that appealed so I got away with a reasonable sized win in a test I totally screwed up trading on day 2.
After the fact.
Nov 15, 2016 -- 7:58AM, pxb wrote:
There are some brilliant Test trading gurus on here.After the fact.
They'll have banked their virtual thousands again this test, yes.
By contrast I think I've been incredibly lucky both these tests although I have also done the odd sensible thing.
My opening position would have been a SA back but I got spooked by the rain and was not sure if I would be able to follow the match so left it as I had a good position in the England game, which, as it happens I squandered, nil desperandum!
I think SA are a very good side in development. Was not sure how their batting would cope against Starc but he does not seem to be at his best. Hazlewood by contrast has been magnificent and got some speed back to make him a very difficult proposition. AB was a big blow and so we thought would Steyn be but I saw Abbot in India and was quite impressed on unresponsive pitches as well as when he got reverse.
SA were always going to outbowl Aus I just didn't expect to out bat them so easy. Duminy and Elgar were a revalation in the first Test. I am not sure I expect them to do that again particulalry in tandem! I knew all about QDK. Aus top 4 looked very strong at home and it was always about them getting a start or not. A tail that starts at 5 is always going to be a problem.
Aus in deep trouble. I would expect SA to continue to stick the knife in. Will look forward to pxb's pitch report, ground history and bias,pink ball analysis, which, is ashley quite important if wickets are likely to fall in clumps with the lights on. I expect some input from you technical betters as this should be your game as changing conditions will favour in and out moves.
The pacers have been on target from ball one. Their bowling first up today was brilliant. Lets see who gets the axe in the aussie team.
Nov 15, 2016 -- 7:58AM, pxb wrote:
There are some brilliant Test trading gurus on here.After the fact.
we cant all read the psychology of the market in adavance like urself 
Nov 15, 2016 -- 7:09AM, Fatslogger wrote:
Nov 15, 2016 -- 12:47AM, GRANTCKING wrote:SA was buying currency after day 1Was the Thai not free money in this one?Got quite a few draw lays in from close yesterday, thinking the prices were a bit low and that I could probably buy back later. Fortunately the draw never got back up to a price that appealed so I got away with a reasonable sized win in a test I totally screwed up trading on day 2.
was never going to be a thai after day 1
Nov 15, 2016 -- 2:55PM, GRANTCKING wrote:
Nov 15, 2016 -- 7:09AM, Fatslogger wrote:Nov 15, 2016 -- 12:47AM, GRANTCKING wrote:SA was buying currency after day 1Was the Thai not free money in this one?Got quite a few draw lays in from close yesterday, thinking the prices were a bit low and that I could probably buy back later. Fortunately the draw never got back up to a price that appealed so I got away with a reasonable sized win in a test I totally screwed up trading on day 2.was never going to be a thai after day 1
I know that and indeed knew it at the time but still screwed my position backing the draw at 3.6 during the rain day. Lucky to have got it back, really, although I'd have had a huge win if I'd guessed the market would bottom out at 3.4 rather than looking for lower, including further backs.
