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pxb
07 Nov 16 23:09
Joined:
Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
Heavy rain forecast day 1, with more rain day 2 and possibly day 3.

Otherwise, Hobart a result venue that should suit SAF as much as Aus. Assuming Rabada isn't rested, Aus look a huge lay.
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Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 12:36 AM GMT
Why did he stay on his feet
Report anxious November 14, 2016 12:36 AM GMT
Looking good here for the Boks
Report GRANTCKING November 14, 2016 12:36 AM GMT
wow, dallas win
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 12:37 AM GMT
fk me
Report GRANTCKING November 14, 2016 12:38 AM GMT

Nov 13, 2016 -- 6:35PM, slip5 wrote:


grant do you make sure you dont get up early in the morning so you wont get tempted to have a look at the bpl


yes!!!

Report GRANTCKING November 14, 2016 12:38 AM GMT

Nov 13, 2016 -- 6:35PM, anxious wrote:


Abberdonia are you on here again at this time of the night as well


LoveLoveLove

Report peckerdunne November 14, 2016 12:38 AM GMT
TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCHHHHHHHHHHHDDDDDDDDDOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWNNNN... Laugh
Report anxious November 14, 2016 12:38 AM GMT
35 -30
Report GRANTCKING November 14, 2016 12:39 AM GMT
anxious, why is hamlin sending me contact requests GrinWink
Report anxious November 14, 2016 12:39 AM GMT
Are you making it pay ?
Report anxious November 14, 2016 12:39 AM GMT
Hamlin my god is he really
Report anxious November 14, 2016 12:40 AM GMT
Not me Abberdonia he must have feelings for you Laugh
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 12:41 AM GMT
Coop how can steelers win here
Report GRANTCKING November 14, 2016 12:41 AM GMT

Nov 13, 2016 -- 6:40PM, anxious wrote:


Not me Abberdonia he must have feelings for you


LaughLaughLaugh

Report GRANTCKING November 14, 2016 12:41 AM GMT

Nov 13, 2016 -- 6:41PM, tomtimtum wrote:


Coop how can steelers win here


they cant

Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 12:41 AM GMT
1.03 cowboys
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 12:42 AM GMT
still 1.03
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 12:42 AM GMT
with 2 sec left
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 12:42 AM GMT
its impossible to win surely
Report peckerdunne November 14, 2016 12:43 AM GMT
PHILLY DALLAS DOUBLE YUM YUM.........
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 12:43 AM GMT
Oh, they get to the end of the play, thought it would be over when time up
Report peckerdunne November 14, 2016 12:44 AM GMT
8 on the spin but started big dogs............LaughLaugh
Report jucel69 November 14, 2016 12:50 AM GMT
just got back from the shop, amazing result for the cowboys!
Report jucel69 November 14, 2016 12:53 AM GMT
Aus's odds haven't changed for ages now!
Report pxb November 14, 2016 12:54 AM GMT
Been a big earthquake in Christchurch. May affect the Test.
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 12:54 AM GMT
new ball kept it down, will start to go soon now they realise its not doing anything
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 12:54 AM GMT
There it goes!
Report anxious November 14, 2016 12:55 AM GMT
Australia 14-1 Draw 11-2 South Africa 1-5  365
Report jucel69 November 14, 2016 12:56 AM GMT

Nov 13, 2016 -- 6:54PM, pxb wrote:


Been a big earthquake in Christchurch. May affect the Test.


CryThey only had one a few years ago too

Report pxb November 14, 2016 12:58 AM GMT
That's why Aussies call NZ, the Shaky Isles.

I'm thinking they might relocate the Test.
Report jucel69 November 14, 2016 1:04 AM GMT
raining
Report jucel69 November 14, 2016 1:06 AM GMT
Bavuma has become an impressive middle order player
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 1:07 AM GMT
Was just thinking the same, very solid and organised
Report jucel69 November 14, 2016 1:08 AM GMT

Nov 13, 2016 -- 7:07PM, tomtimtum wrote:


Was just thinking the same, very solid and organised


he's got a bit of 'mongrel' in him too, as the aussies say

Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 1:10 AM GMT
This is only QDKs 11th test and hes only 23, feels like hes been around forever
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 1:11 AM GMT
12th test!
Report GRANTCKING November 14, 2016 1:27 AM GMT
Grin
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 1:28 AM GMT
who wins this PRO
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 2:09 AM GMT
rain, covers on!
Report pxb November 14, 2016 7:35 AM GMT
Aus only 2 down, behind still, and 2 extended days to go. Draw is starting to look like a runner. Although can't see Aus winning this.
Report Cardinal Scott November 14, 2016 7:41 AM GMT
Huge number of play & misses in that last session, Aus fortunate to only be 2 down, they still have a shot at not losing here!
Report Fatslogger November 14, 2016 7:52 AM GMT

Nov 14, 2016 -- 1:35AM, pxb wrote:


Aus only 2 down, behind still, and 2 extended days to go. Draw is starting to look like a runner. Although can't see Aus winning this.


My position has improved with some trading and obviously a fair bit of the draw moving in and I've gone flat on the draw to be green SA, although still have a large Aus red. By contrast to you pxb (and to the market), I see the Australia win as rather more likely than the draw. Either needs a lot of batting from Aus but with two extended days to come, it's feasible enough for them to win setting somewhere above 200 with enough time left that draw is a non runner. Assuming normal rates of scoring (fair enough with Warner gone), Aus about 200 on by close tomorrow. They'd need to score faster than that and some on day 5 to set up a declaration offering the carrot of 300 in 75 overs or so mid morning day 5 which does then give the draw real legs but I just don't see them lasting that many overs. Having said that, my analysis does seem to suggest that Aus will really struggle to set up a win without being bowled out and then managing to defend a fairly smal total somewhere under 300 so perhaps the prices are the right way round. SA should be shorter though either way.

Report pxb November 14, 2016 8:06 AM GMT
I see the Australia win as rather more likely than the draw. Either needs a lot of batting from Aus but with two extended days to come, it's feasible enough for them to win setting somewhere above 200 with enough time left that draw is a non runner.

That's what I call a Goldilocks Score. Enough, but not too many.
Report Fatslogger November 14, 2016 8:17 AM GMT

Nov 14, 2016 -- 2:06AM, pxb wrote:


I see the Australia win as rather more likely than the draw. Either needs a lot of batting from Aus but with two extended days to come, it's feasible enough for them to win setting somewhere above 200 with enough time left that draw is a non runner.That's what I call a Goldilocks Score. Enough, but not too many.


I've already made a horrible Goldilocks play this test looking for the draw near 3s.

With a long time left, Aus could up the scoring rate if they bat really well but with so much time left, they similarly can't really afford to take many risks until they're say 150 ahead if only 3 or 4 down well after tea tomorrow and even then it could backfire.

Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 11:05 PM GMT
Ball doing plenty
Report pxb November 14, 2016 11:15 PM GMT
Australia settling in for a draw I think.
Report jucel69 November 14, 2016 11:17 PM GMT
Whinging Warne
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 11:19 PM GMT
Been coming a while
Report jucel69 November 14, 2016 11:23 PM GMT
poor shot really, needed to see the opening bowlers off. Again, terrible game awareness.
Report anxious November 14, 2016 11:23 PM GMT
South Africa will win this im  sure
Report anxious November 14, 2016 11:25 PM GMT
Once Smith goes they wiil fold
Report Fatslogger November 14, 2016 11:26 PM GMT
It's a very long way for Aus to bat to make it interesting, yes.
Report anxious November 14, 2016 11:26 PM GMT
South Africa without de villers , steyn  and morkel  have been too good for the Aussies
Report anxious November 14, 2016 11:28 PM GMT
Granted they got the conditions on the first day
Report Cardinal Scott November 14, 2016 11:29 PM GMT
Abbott was on the money yesterday afternoon, could have had 6 wickets easy!  Part of me wants to lump on the Saffers but I won't
Report Cardinal Scott November 14, 2016 11:31 PM GMT
Voges trying to save his test career.
Report brooky87 November 14, 2016 11:31 PM GMT
pxb how can aussies settle for a draw theres 2 days left
Report jucel69 November 14, 2016 11:33 PM GMT
I'm surprised there is so much nibble this morning. A bit of sun and a drying deck, maybe it's the early start?
Report pxb November 14, 2016 11:34 PM GMT
Not go for runs. Smith didn't score a run for 10 overs.
Report jucel69 November 14, 2016 11:36 PM GMT
Aleem Dar has joined Dharmasena as feckin clueless
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 11:37 PM GMT
Talking out my pocket but can't say with 100% certainty that he didn't hit that
Report luckynot November 14, 2016 11:43 PM GMT
what is that annoying waft of the bat about from smith ?
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 11:45 PM GMT
How bizarre
Report jucel69 November 14, 2016 11:46 PM GMT
Voges needs to be dropped, he's been poor for a long time now
Report tomtimtum November 14, 2016 11:47 PM GMT
Cant drop someone with a 67 avg Grin
Report pxb November 14, 2016 11:56 PM GMT
Australia will to bat all day to stand a chance. And that looks very unlikely now.
Report tomtimtum November 15, 2016 12:00 AM GMT
0+1 on debut, gotta hurt
Report tomtimtum November 15, 2016 12:01 AM GMT
Haven't seen a team bowl this well since I don't know when
Report jucel69 November 15, 2016 12:11 AM GMT

Nov 14, 2016 -- 6:01PM, tomtimtum wrote:


Haven't seen a team bowl this well since I don't know when


Yeh i've had a few cheeky draw bets in double figures that haven't worked!
Was sort of convincing myself that it might ease out and a decent p'ship would developLaugh

Report mafeking November 15, 2016 12:13 AM GMT
the most flattering test average of all time. hasn't got a run against a decent attack in 2 years

next winter should be amusing. they look in utter disarray
Report jucel69 November 15, 2016 12:19 AM GMT
All flat track bullies
Report tomtimtum November 15, 2016 12:21 AM GMT
Amazing
Report tomtimtum November 15, 2016 12:21 AM GMT
Came out of nowhere
Report jucel69 November 15, 2016 12:22 AM GMT
rip snorter
Report jucel69 November 15, 2016 12:22 AM GMT
this is an absolute shallacking!
Report jucel69 November 15, 2016 12:24 AM GMT
all over before lunch
Report tomtimtum November 15, 2016 12:24 AM GMT
His captain is saying "Leave the reviews for me"
Report anxious November 15, 2016 12:28 AM GMT
Is this a 3 or 4 test series
Report jucel69 November 15, 2016 12:29 AM GMT
3
Report pxb November 15, 2016 12:29 AM GMT
Pity this isn't a 5 match series.
Report anxious November 15, 2016 12:30 AM GMT
ta think South Africa will beat them again
Report Cardinal Scott November 15, 2016 12:30 AM GMT
Saffers home season coincides with Aus & that's why they play 3 match series.
Report mafeking November 15, 2016 12:34 AM GMT
they've got pakistan up next who after better than the saffers on a line through england Laugh
Report anxious November 15, 2016 12:34 AM GMT
In December -January  Australia play 3 tests against Pakistan , they could lose that as well
Report mafeking November 15, 2016 12:34 AM GMT
are better
Report anxious November 15, 2016 12:34 AM GMT
Yep Pakistan will be tough to beat
Report pxb November 15, 2016 12:35 AM GMT
I was looking for a draw back to lay down to 4. Obviously didn't work. Still made a decent profit on this.

Will Aus be favs for the 3rd Test? I suspect they will be. Day-nighter.
Report mafeking November 15, 2016 12:36 AM GMT
gonna be bowled out twice in around a day's play
Report GRANTCKING November 15, 2016 12:47 AM GMT
SA was buying currency after day 1 Cool
Report GRANTCKING November 15, 2016 12:49 AM GMT

Nov 14, 2016 -- 5:15PM, pxb wrote:


Australia settling in for a draw I think.


Grin they did a fine job of it

Report tomtimtum November 15, 2016 12:54 AM GMT
24 overs, 8 for 40, superb stuff from SAF
Report sonofshinner November 15, 2016 6:53 AM GMT
OZ players faced about 27 balls per man this test.
Report Fatslogger November 15, 2016 7:09 AM GMT

Nov 14, 2016 -- 6:47PM, GRANTCKING wrote:


SA was buying currency after day 1


Was the Thai not free money in this one?

Got quite a few draw lays in from close yesterday, thinking the prices were a bit low and that I could probably buy back later. Fortunately the draw never got back up to a price that appealed so I got away with a reasonable sized win in a test I totally screwed up trading on day 2.

Report pxb November 15, 2016 7:58 AM GMT
There are some brilliant Test trading gurus on here.

After the fact.
Report Fatslogger November 15, 2016 8:11 AM GMT

Nov 15, 2016 -- 1:58AM, pxb wrote:


There are some brilliant Test trading gurus on here.After the fact.


They'll have banked their virtual thousands again this test, yes.

By contrast I think I've been incredibly lucky both these tests although I have also done the odd sensible thing.

Report Whisperingdeath November 15, 2016 11:40 AM GMT
Coulda should woulda!

My opening position would have been a SA back but I got spooked by the rain and was not sure if I would be able to follow the match so left it as I had a good position in the England game, which, as it happens I squandered, nil desperandum!

I think SA are a very good side in development. Was not sure how their batting would cope against Starc but he does not seem to be at his best. Hazlewood by contrast has been magnificent and got some speed back to make him a very difficult proposition. AB was a big blow and so we thought would Steyn be but I saw Abbot in India and was quite impressed on unresponsive pitches as well as when he got reverse.

SA were always going to outbowl Aus I just didn't expect to out bat them so easy. Duminy and Elgar were a revalation in the first Test. I am not sure I expect them to do that again particulalry in tandem! I knew all about QDK. Aus top 4 looked very strong at home and it was always about them getting a start or not. A tail that starts at 5 is always going to be a problem.

Aus in deep trouble. I would expect SA to continue to stick the knife in. Will look forward to pxb's pitch report, ground history and bias,pink ball analysis, which, is ashley quite important if wickets are likely to fall in clumps with the lights on. I expect some input from you technical betters as this should be your game as changing conditions will favour in and out moves.
Report detraveller November 15, 2016 1:30 PM GMT
I can't believe Australia have collapsed with such consistency. 10-85 and 8-32 in a single test! Last I remember SA scoring 330 odd and winning by an innings was against Bangladesh.

The pacers have been on target from ball one. Their bowling first up today was brilliant. Lets see who gets the axe in the aussie team.
Report GRANTCKING November 15, 2016 2:55 PM GMT

Nov 15, 2016 -- 1:58AM, pxb wrote:


There are some brilliant Test trading gurus on here.After the fact.


LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh we cant all read the psychology of the market in adavance like urself Cool

Report GRANTCKING November 15, 2016 2:55 PM GMT

Nov 15, 2016 -- 1:09AM, Fatslogger wrote:


Nov 15, 2016 -- 12:47AM, GRANTCKING wrote:SA was buying currency after day 1Was the Thai not free money in this one?Got quite a few draw lays in from close yesterday, thinking the prices were a bit low and that I could probably buy back later. Fortunately the draw never got back up to a price that appealed so I got away with a reasonable sized win in a test I totally screwed up trading on day 2.


was never going to be a thai after day 1

Report Fatslogger November 15, 2016 3:52 PM GMT

Nov 15, 2016 -- 8:55AM, GRANTCKING wrote:


Nov 15, 2016 --  7:09AM, Fatslogger wrote:Nov 15, 2016 -- 12:47AM, GRANTCKING wrote:SA was buying currency after day 1Was the Thai not free money in this one?Got quite a few draw lays in from close yesterday, thinking the prices were a bit low and that I could probably buy back later. Fortunately the draw never got back up to a price that appealed so I got away with a reasonable sized win in a test I totally screwed up trading on day 2.was never going to be a thai after day 1


I know that and indeed knew it at the time but still screwed my position backing the draw at 3.6 during the rain day. Lucky to have got it back, really, although I'd have had a huge win if I'd guessed the market would bottom out at 3.4 rather than looking for lower, including further backs.

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