Cricket
England has a good record here. Does spin later and if Pak are not too far adrift after the 1st innings, Shah could make it close.
I expect an England win, but too short for me at 1.7.
Aug 7, 2016 -- 4:26PM, tomtimtum wrote:
good call from Athers, that Azhar wicket was the key moment
How long had England got before that? Looked like a mountain to climb at that point, although according to the market not as much as when Pakistan one down early in the afternoon session today.
Aug 7, 2016 -- 4:27PM, Charlie wrote:
Hope you all listened to Juce about laying the draw.
Didn't even catch that post. One of the many problems with having a family is that you can't follow the game or the board closely enough. What price did he suggest it at? I was too red to heed it anyway but I did get some England at 11.5 so I suspect I was on the same page.
He said lay the draw even down to 1.1.
Aug 7, 2016 -- 4:31PM, Charlie wrote:
Without a doubt Juce is the best test match betterist ever. He said lay the draw even down to 1.1.
Can't even find it scrolling up the thread is so busy.
He's definitely right in thinking that the market under appreciates how things can change. Just because it looks flat right now doesn't mean that a side isn't going to go up in smoke. If juce had a big draw green to lay all the way down to 1.1 he'll be emerging from this test with an absolute ocean of cash. Actually does raise a question around how much I tend to leave a red lying around. I could easily enough have gone all green for lots after picking the two third umpire decisions in the Pakistan innings on day 3. In a potentially swingy game, that can be absolute gold if you're also able to get later decisions right.
Nice catch. How good is Woakes at everything? I bet he shags cats like a pro.
Aug 7, 2016 -- 4:33PM, Charlie wrote:
Of course not Tom. Far too stupid to take advice.
i stayed away too after backing England and bailing out for no loss or win..good call juce
Aug 7, 2016 -- 4:34PM, tomtimtum wrote:
I dont like getting too involved on last day, would hate to throw away previous few days work
That tends to be my view as I'm a master of cocking up the final day trying to be too clever. I thought I'd nailed it by backing India at short prices on the final day in that test with what turned out to be all my green, once not being able to understand prices on 365 was accounted for. Think those were fair enough bets mind; it's usually going for long odds things looking to cash them back in and seeing a train that gets me.
jucel69 • August 6, 2016 12:17 AM BST
Very rarely do you see a draw in England when there are 5 full days of play.
Pak lost 7 for 143 today and England didn't even bowl that well on the best day for batting. Broad & Finn are both struggling, Anderson had the 2 warnings hanging over his head and Ali is sh1te.
Come second innings, it will only take Broad or Finn to fire & the Pakis will get blown away.
I can see the draw going lower as England potter along, but like many test matches, it will come alive from nowhere.
I'll be laying the draw under evens all the way down, even if it goes sub 1.1
Also Shah was just starting to get a few to grip last night.
180 overs is a long long time.
tomtimtum
07 Aug 16 16:46
Has vince dropped the match?!
Thats funny for you!
Aug 7, 2016 -- 4:53PM, Charlie wrote:
I think Juce deserves a round of applause for that. I really hope he has. He's a good bloke.
Good call although mostly talking about a different part of the match than today's bit. I got a heavy lay of the draw in at the end of day 3 too, well overnight at 1.85, which looks good now but didn't for an awful long time.
Aug 7, 2016 -- 4:53PM, Charlie wrote:
I think Juce deserves a round of applause for that. I really hope he has. He's a good bloke.
He's also got a nicely comical turn of phrase. If he reads this he'll be bigger headed and smugger than I am though, which is a nasty thought.
When do we start to get a little twitchy about them seeing it out? Another 5-6 overs? I'd be starting to worry from there.
Going down I think. I'd be tempted to review.
No. Specifically:
Come second innings, it will only take Broad or Finn to fire & the Pakis will get blown away.
I can see the draw going lower as England potter along, but like many test matches, it will come alive from nowhere.
I'll be laying the draw under evens all the way down, even if it goes sub 1.1
Aug 7, 2016 -- 4:59PM, Charlie wrote:
FSNo. Specifically:Come second innings, it will only take Broad or Finn to fire & the Pakis will get blown away.I can see the draw going lower as England potter along, but like many test matches, it will come alive from nowhere.I'll be laying the draw under evens all the way down, even if it goes sub 1.1
Okay, got you. He may have done what I did and gone red enough on draw already that the lay under 1.1 wasn't really an option but then he's also a brave man so might still have got some more green at that point. What you really wanted in this game was to have called England's second innings early and got on the draw big then. I really didn't think they'd be able to bat so well for so long though. I actually expected the draw to be dead in the water a long way before the end of day 4.
Aug 7, 2016 -- 5:13PM, tomtimtum wrote:
Btw, this thread is now the most popular thread in the history of this cricket forum!
Aug 7, 2016 -- 5:19PM, the whizz kids wrote:
Managed to lay Pak for £2. free green
Wont be saying that in 10 overs time when Pak only need 60 to win!!
How many overs before the PRO returns to the thread, to cheer the draw on
U r talking about the king of pros ???
tomtimtum
07 Aug 16 17:07
Hope you greened WD, or your peanuts will be twitching soon
Twitching but the ring is holding firm!
Aug 7, 2016 -- 5:20PM, tomtimtum wrote:
Aug 7, 2016 -- 5:19PM, the whizz kids wrote:Managed to lay Pak for £2. free greenWont be saying that in 10 overs time when Pak only need 60 to win!!
well done to everyone who profited Hard luck to those who didnt
watched some tv during tea and just after. Contemplated 1.01 lay of England but thought nah.
England have only done this 3 times previously
I am going to have a hot bath and read Prospect Theorey!
Aug 7, 2016 -- 5:24PM, tomtimtum wrote:
one day terry, one day!
Impressive.
2-1.
Aug 7, 2016 -- 5:23PM, TerryHurlock wrote:
did you back England at the start whizz?
Backed the draw for some reason during day 3 at 2.8 and then got rid at 3.6 about an hour later.
Had 700 red on draw with only 60 green on results.
Then went balls deep laying the draw between 1.85 and 2.3 yesterday.
Tbh not been trading well the last few weeks including this one but happy to be 1.1 green in the end.
Cant wait for the C P L FILTH FINAL aFTER THAT not.....
JUICE WILL BE ON IT I GUESS.............
I hope you draw backers greened out. There must have been plenty of opportunites so I hope you guys were prudent.
Phew, don't feel euphoric at all, highly relieved. I looked at decimation at one point. Went all in yesterday. was facing an 85% cash out loss.
Cash out or hold your nerve BOOM
Back your judgement! To be fair when I made my bets I was thinking Pakistan would win and it just went down hill. I compounded it by backing the draw lay heavy! Relief!
TerryHurlock
07 Aug 16 17:29
WD whizz..green is good,is the final tonight pd?
Absolutely no chance!
I wouldn't say I'm shot but I have just had two 4 figure wins in days. I am finally back in the Small Time and I am going to recharge and move on to the Carribean for the Test! Don't want to waste this opportunity of having cash in the bank to gear up or get out of trouble!
tomtimtum
07 Aug 16 17:32
WD, I need to teach you some cricket trading
Absolutely NO chance!
Some days ve vin
Some days ve lose
Today ve vin!
TerryHurlock
07 Aug 16 17:33
that feeling off relief is weird feeling alright,feels like you just got away with something!
I did!
Decimation. In fact worse than decimation. I was all in looking down the barrels. Luckily I have an electric oven!
I am actually spent today. Going to have a bath rather than taking one for a change!
Much prefer the cat and mouse of 5 day tests. Loads of time to judge which way the market will react.
Aug 7, 2016 -- 5:08PM, Charlie wrote:
I am on 10% commission for bigging Juce up. And as for you FS I thought you were a tw@t and I was completely wrong. I'd put you in you in the good bloke category.
Err, thanks. The truth is that I'm really a monumental tw@t but I've been so keen to impress you that I've pretended to be a good bloke for weeks to get you on side.
Pretty glad I won on this. I managed to sink a grand into a short odds back of NZ, which would be feeling seriously horrible now if I'd also lost £3.5k on this one. I've almost done well enough here and in the Sri Lanka Australia test to think I've some idea how to trade after all.
Just came back from work. Glad i cashed out of draw back at 1.49 when i had backed it at 1.51. Didnt get greedy and have hence prevented a disaster! You just cant trust Pakistan! 124/3 to 125/7! Incredible! Must have been a great viewing experience. Sadly I mised it :/
Made a packet in the end. You can never trust the Pakistan team. Gave a bit back messing about with the draw but all in all a very profitable test match!!
History at this ground is that the team batting 2nd wins, and it looked like that until Eng openers 2nd innings started to pile up a big score. Not much I could do after that, except to trade my reds down.
