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pxb
18 Jul 16 00:10
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
Looks like Anderson back, and probably Stokes as well. Some people including me, think Rashid should come in for Ali.

Looks like just showers in the forecast, and we shouldn't lose too many overs at a usually result venue.

If it weren't for Shah, I'd call an England win. Usually decent first innings scores, so a draw back to lay to start.

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By:
the whizz kids
When: 18 Jul 16 03:12
Market loving Eng again.LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Jul 16 07:41
Two draws in the last ten tests at Old Trafford, both against Australia and both significantly rain affected: the 2013 test I'd entirely forgotten and the 2005 test I definitely hadn't (Lee and McGrath holding England off the win for 4 overs). The three before that were all draws though. You have to go back to this one of them:

http://www.espncricinfo.com/england/engine/match/63806.html

for a draw without rain and tests aren't played like that any more. 

I'm laying the draw at 4.2 expecting it a bit longer nearer to the match aiming then to back it, for same reasons as pxb, although these sides could spoil such an approach as both will remain better with ball than bat. England should be a fair bit more threatening for Anderson's return.
By:
pxb
When: 18 Jul 16 08:14
The only thing that would make me change my mind about a draw back to lay if it looks like a greentop and I think that unlikely.
By:
detraveller
When: 18 Jul 16 10:11
I can't believe England are whining about the way Pakistan celebrated in the last game :/ They open their mouth too early without knowing anything.

As for the second test, i expect an England win. Purely for the reason that Pakistan won't play too good games in a row.
By:
Foinavon
When: 18 Jul 16 10:18
I just layed the draw again. Got some 3.6 yesterday. Not expecting to have to trade.
By:
detraveller
When: 18 Jul 16 10:22
Be careful with managing your funds lads, the India test starts on Thursday as well.
By:
anxious
When: 18 Jul 16 10:24
Manchester will definitely spin , England beware.
By:
detraveller
When: 18 Jul 16 10:25
And looking at the weather forecast, rain will play a role.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 18 Jul 16 10:44
Can't call this. England lay looks a possibility around evens as I expect another seesaw battle. Not looked at pitch or weather or teams yet!
By:
Mike-lfc
When: 18 Jul 16 11:29
England are always crap at Lords. I expect 2-1 England with one draw
By:
geordie1956
When: 18 Jul 16 12:28
England more likely to win 2nd test, especially if Anderson & Stokes back but they are currently short at 2.02 - I will lay that & hopefully back them at somewhere around 2.75 - 3.00

If we have reasonable weather possibility of another really good test match - little between both sides overall except they have by far the best spinner so we need to have a method to try & negate opportunities for him - if Stokes back to his best that will be a big bonus to England and to me will increase the possibility of England winning
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Jul 16 14:45
Forecasts to be taken with pinch of salt this far out but looks showery on Friday then fine after that. Ought to be able to make time lost up even if a session or so lost on day 1 in that case.
By:
detraveller
When: 18 Jul 16 14:47

Jul 18, 2016 -- 12:28PM, geordie1956 wrote:


England more likely to win 2nd test, especially if Anderson & Stokes back but they are currently short at 2.02 - I will lay that & hopefully back them at somewhere around 2.75 - 3.00 If we have reasonable weather possibility of another really good test match - little between both sides overall except they have by far the best spinner so we need to have a method to try & negate opportunities for him - if Stokes back to his best that will be a big bonus to England and to me will increase the possibility of England winning


If the market love stays the same for Eng, you'd need them in big trouble to get a price of 2.75-3.00

As a comparison, they were that price at 96-4 chasing 283 at Lords. And at 130-4 they were back at 2.00.

By:
detraveller
When: 18 Jul 16 14:48
@Fats Sunday forecast tricky too. I think I will wait for it to rain on Day 1 to lay the draw.

Is backing the draw at 3.8 till the start of the game a good idea?
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Jul 16 14:57

Jul 18, 2016 -- 2:48PM, detraveller wrote:


@Fats Sunday forecast tricky too. I think I will wait for it to rain on Day 1 to lay the draw.Is backing the draw at 3.8 till the start of the game a good idea?


Hmm, danger that forecast will improve and you get stranded and cloudy weather on day 1 could easily see wickets fall early. Difficult to call at this stage. I'd be happy enough going in red or green on draw though. The main question is where prices will go pre game and that's dependent on forecast more than anything.

By:
pxb
When: 18 Jul 16 18:31
I still don't see much to worry about in the forecast, but this is Manchester and you can never discount prolonged drizzle this far out.

I was hoping to back the draw around 5, but that now looks unlikely. Same consideration as the first match - 2 better bowling than batting sides and it should move along nicely from day 3.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 18 Jul 16 19:20
Having layed the draw at 4.2 and 3.8 I'm hoping to back it around 4.7 to go in with a big draw green for progressively laying off from about 3.8 down. Don't imagine it will happen like that though.
By:
Injera
When: 18 Jul 16 19:47
Still trying to work out what happened at Lord's..

Both sides took 20 wickets cheaply on what was a benign surface. England did it without Jimmy, Stokes and with little from Moeen and Finn.  The match ended inside 4 days.

Geez, we must have batted badly!!!
By:
mafeking
When: 18 Jul 16 20:45
didn't think it was as flat as lords usually is. certainly on days 3 and 4 no batsman really looked in and you always felt something might happen just round the corner

might be a series where cook, root and bairstow will have get the bulk of the runs if england are to turn it around. one thing england's much vaunted batting strength down the order doing it against average seam bowlers quite another against top class leg spin
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 18 Jul 16 21:23
Injera

The Lords pitch has not been itself certainly this season. Having said that no team had scored less than 350 first up hence an England lay when Pakistan went in to bat.

With regard to the target people put up the stats for Lords batting last which were reasonably encouraging, however, the big 4th innings totals were usually chasing 550+.

Whilst not being a devil the pitch itself has lacked pace making it difficult to score runs. There was also some uneven bounce. Modern batsmen seem unable to play ( Bat ) Test Cricket anymore and failed miserably.

Whilst I was Adam Ant England could not win they got a lot closer than I thought they would. The pitch was not throwing up grenades and England could have, should have won in hindsight. Root, Bstard and Moen had brain farts. Hales was Hales, Cook got a good one. Vince didn't realise they bowled to a plan, that is why he hit half a dozen beautiful cover drives before he knicked off.

I think the batting from both teams will improve and pitches may get better for batting but if it swings or is dry then we ain't seen nothing yet!

Two bowlers are going to get the chop from the side! Fair enough two better ones are coming in but really the batting needs surgery. Moen should be given a chance to bat higher up and Rashid should come in to help him.
By:
detraveller
When: 19 Jul 16 00:13
WD why you so Adam Ant? :D
By:
pxb
When: 19 Jul 16 01:28
Anderson, Stokes and Rashid in the squad.

You'd have to say a much stronger bowling lineup.
By:
pxb
When: 19 Jul 16 03:14
The main question is where prices will go pre game and that's dependent on forecast more than anything.

Forecasting the forecast is a profitable trick.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 19 Jul 16 07:17
DT

Maybe I misread the situation!

The pitch was probably better than I though! England lost this game Pakistan did not win it.

I looked at some of the matches posted for high 4th innings scores at Lords. Sometimes Lords can be a road and when that happens there are usually two high first innings scores and the teams scoring 300-400 batting second are normally chasing 500-550. Slips in around the bat, not pressure to stop the run rate almost the opposite, fielding teams encouraging the batsmen to play shots when they have no chance of winning the game.

My view was there was sufficient in the pitch for a very decent bowling attack and was not just expecting Shah to spin England out either. I expected a contribution from the the Masters of the Dark Arts and so they did. I also figured England did not have the patience or skill required to play this out and so it was.

With a bit more application and forethought England could have won this. Cook got a good one, bad luck. Hales played a rash shot but that is his game. Root really could have broken the back of the total and his brain fart really cost England maybe 50 odd runs. Those 50 runs build a lot of pressure and build a lot of confidence. Bstard ( I thought he played well ) might not have looked so under pressure throughout and maybe Moen would not have played that shot. England imho were very close. The 80 odd runs do not tell the full story.

Having said that I was supremely confident all day and knew at some point one wicket would lead to 3 or 4 and again so it proved at the end. I have repaid the remortgage on my caravanBlush!

I guess you didn't really need to hear all that DT! Can't help myself at times. Apologies to anyone who has just wasted 30 seconds of their lives reading the drivel I have already stated before. I guess some people just like the sound of their own type and can't help saying I told you soWhoops!
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 19 Jul 16 07:19
I think Ben Foakes scored 141 yesterday
By:
the_don
When: 19 Jul 16 07:34
Cook
Hales
Root
Bairstow
Vince
Stokes
Buttler(w)
Woakes
Rashid
Broad
Anderson
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 19 Jul 16 10:05
erm Butler has a broken something!

Ali instead of Butler or Vince for me
By:
Fatslogger
When: 19 Jul 16 12:25
Well someone has to play instead of Buttler in that line up. I would play Borthwick but obviously England won't. The actual side will almost certainly be same top 5 batsmen, Stokes, Bairstow, Woakes, Broad, Anderson with either Ali or Rashid. Don't know where Ali should bat. Even if going for Rashid as the spinner, which I'm sceptical about, I'd still pick Ali ahead of Vince but again don't think England will.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 19 Jul 16 16:28
Yep Ali has shown he has what it takes certainly in the lower middle order. he deserves a chance to move up and stake a claim. I would like to see two spinners operate. It is also a shame that Borthwick did not get a chance at 5. He is supposed to be a good bat and we could have had a look at his leg spin too. I believe that Rashid deserves a chance too. He is 28, only just learning his craft. Give him a run. Cull the batsmen who are not cutting it yet.
By:
Injera
When: 19 Jul 16 16:59
Cook
Hales (bat properly son, it's a 5 day match)
Root
Vince (we know you like a drive but your best shot against classy lefties is the leave..)
Jonny (attack man! A few boundaries from you and Misbah would have put 8 on the rope!)
Stokes (fit to bowl now, should have batted at Lord's)
Borthwick
Woakes
Rasher
Broad
Anderson

Won't happen, but that's my team. Harsh on Moeen but he's in the team to bowl. Rasher at OT is the pick. Bat first and Borthers will like a bowl in the fourth innings.
By:
the_don
When: 19 Jul 16 22:33
*sorry, meant to say with my team if all fit this is who I'd like to see.

If/when Buttler is fit I think Bairstow is more than capable of moving up to 4, with Root at 3. Until then I'd go with 3.Root 4.Vince 5.Stokes 6.Bairstow 7.Ali
By:
jucel69
When: 20 Jul 16 07:40

Jul 19, 2016 -- 12:13AM, detraveller wrote:


WD why you so Adam Ant? :D


WD is adamantine!

By:
sonofshinner
When: 20 Jul 16 07:43
lay of the paks...wounded animal to kick in.
By:
pxb
When: 20 Jul 16 09:20
I don't see much to worry about in the weather. Worst case we lose the 3rd session day1, but should make most of that up.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 20 Jul 16 10:42
Draw has moved out a bit now so the market may agree with you.
By:
Mike-lfc
When: 20 Jul 16 15:41

Jul 20, 2016 -- 7:43AM, sonofshinner wrote:


lay of the paks...wounded animal to kick in.


don't think it's wounded animal more the fact that most teams beat England at Lords

By:
Fatslogger
When: 20 Jul 16 15:56
Draw inching up to my back at 4.5. If it hits that I'm going in happy enough although if it gets up to my larger back at 4.7 I'll be happier still, albeit then sweating on the risk of early wickets.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 20 Jul 16 18:40
I bought one of my first girlfriends Kings of the Wild FrontierWink
By:
pxb
When: 21 Jul 16 02:38
Sunday now looking iffy, and I've gone green on the draw.
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