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pxb
28 Oct 15 06:40
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
No need to discuss the weather.

A result ground (1 draw in 7 matches), although with some big scores. NZ scored 690 batting second in the last Test played here.

I feel Pakistan will be happy with a draw and bat like it first innings.

England's tail masked their middle order problems and while 3.7 looks a decent price, I can't bring myself to back England.  I have a feeling we will see a batting collapse at some point, and if we do it will probably be England. I'm not going to oppose Pakistan.
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Report jucel69 November 4, 2015 1:06 PM GMT
looked out in real time
Report Whisperingdeath November 4, 2015 1:07 PM GMT
another stupid review
Report johnnythebull November 4, 2015 1:07 PM GMT
so basically DRS is proving Ump made an incorrect decision and yet it stands..BS
Report BJT November 4, 2015 1:07 PM GMT
Both of their reviews showed a freckle out of their favour.  Sorry, no more left..
Report jucel69 November 4, 2015 1:07 PM GMT
draw from 50 to 12
Report Whisperingdeath November 4, 2015 1:09 PM GMT
close, looked out...not given...no reviews left!

Worse for pakistan Umpire can keep giving them not out and nothing Pakistan can do about it. Umpire under no pressure now. he can just say to them " review it then,...oh that's right you have already! "
Report GRANTCKING November 4, 2015 1:09 PM GMT
how many overs left 2nite? 2/3?
Report johnnythebull November 4, 2015 1:09 PM GMT
Eng lay must surely be free money..just can't see any way they win from here
Report BJT November 4, 2015 1:09 PM GMT
3 including this one.
Report DStyle November 4, 2015 1:09 PM GMT
johnnythebull 04 Nov 15 13:07 
so basically DRS is proving Ump made an incorrect decision and yet it stands..BS


no.

that's not right.

the flight of the ball is predictive and contains a margin of error.

it showed that the technology could not be used to overturn the umpire's decision with the required level of certainty.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_hypothesis_testing)
Report jucel69 November 4, 2015 1:09 PM GMT

Nov 4, 2015 -- 1:09PM, johnnythebull wrote:


Eng lay must surely be free money..just can't see any way they win from here


not too expensive either at this point

Report BJT November 4, 2015 1:10 PM GMT
Not even close ffs.
Report GRANTCKING November 4, 2015 1:11 PM GMT
pak going to regret wasting these challenges at some point 2mrow, can just see it now
Report GRANTCKING November 4, 2015 1:11 PM GMT
sorry reviews! challenges is tennis ffs Laugh
Report johnnythebull November 4, 2015 1:15 PM GMT
yeah,i know that DS but that is what is relied on
basically the 'prediction' showed the ball hitting the stumps,albeit clipping,so it should be given out
i don't know if this 'umpire's call' thang is to save them being constantly potentially 'embarrassed' or what
that's the way i see it
either trust the technology or dispense with it
the umpires are all big boys,only human
we can all make errors
shouldn't be an issue
Report bigpoppapump November 4, 2015 1:21 PM GMT
the use of the tech is to prevent howlers.  they shouldn't be asking for marginal decisions to be reviewed.

the draw is much more likely than an England win by the way, not reflected in the relative prices.
Report DStyle November 4, 2015 1:26 PM GMT
it's got nothing to do with embarrassment.

it's got to do with the fact that DRS is based on the scientific method of falisfying a hypothesis.

when a side reviews a decision, they are NOT asking for the decision to be deferred to hawkeye, which is what so many people assume.

they are saying that they believe the umpire has made an absolute howler, and that hawkeye will provide enough evidence to conclusively prove the umpire wrong.

(they may not know this, but this is how it works)

this is what botham doesn't understand, when he asks that a side shouldn't lose a review when it's "umpire's call". They should, because they are wrong.

I've said it before: if the projected path for hawkeye showed a cone of probabilistic flights of the ball, the system would be a great deal better understood. People would then understand that in the case of umpire's call, one of the possible flights of the ball would be that it missed the stumps entirely, and therefore the umpire's decision may have been right.
Report Whisperingdeath November 4, 2015 1:29 PM GMT
I have the draw onside but just cannot see England saving this let alone winning it. Like I have said before I don't like the term free money but if you have deep pockets it is a no brainer to lay England at 4.5.


Geoffrey about Bell...how do you miss it with four and a half inches of bat!
Report DStyle November 4, 2015 1:31 PM GMT
stop asking botham about the review system. it's like asking a donkey their opinion on brain surgery.
Report DStyle November 4, 2015 1:32 PM GMT
he flatly contradicted himself there.

"it's about removing howlers, it wasn't a howler, so the side shouldn't lose a review."
Report bigpoppapump November 4, 2015 1:38 PM GMT
unfortunately DStyle, what you're seeing (on technology being used to make decisions) is a good example of nudge theory. ie the subtle and incremental shifting of the debate.  now that the use of the tech is ingrained its original justification (remove howlers) is forgotten and the general consensus has shifted to a view that cricket decisions can be right/wrong. it's moronic, which of course is why Beefy is a fan. It's also why they should never have opened the door to technology in the first place. it doesn't even remove all the howlers.  still, we get what we deserve; we all subscribe to sky, and they're calling the shots.  I've stopped letting it bother me - the game has turned to sh1t anyway.
Report DStyle November 4, 2015 1:49 PM GMT
what they don't realise is that the moment you start giving the projected path unquestionable accuracy, is that there is no longer any point in having umpires make any decision.

and then everything gets reviewed.

and then botham complains about the game constantly being held up all the time.

and then botham calls for umpires to be given more authority in making decisions on the field.
Report Injera November 4, 2015 3:37 PM GMT
If Hawkeye is showing part of the ball clipping the stumps or part of the ball hitting the batsman in line then I think that should be what stands.

Too much depends on whether the standing umpire has said out or not out. It even affects a captain's/batsman's decision to review.

Much rather defer to Hawkeye than to a standing umpire who has already lost so much authority.

Umpires do not enforce a number of regulations: over rates; substitutes; unofficial drinks breaks and other 12th man incursions.

They don't look for no balls, they refer run outs, stumpings and catches close to the ground.

To defer back to a standing umpire with the phrase 'umpires call' implies the umpire is infallible and Hawkeye not so. The truth is they both have margin for error.

If an LBW review shows the ball clipping leg stump it's given out ONLY IF the umpire has given it out. If he gave it not out, and the bowler reviewed it, the batsman stays in. Crazy
Report johnnythebull November 4, 2015 4:19 PM GMT
agree..at the end of the day we have the human eye vs the computer both giving a verdict on where they predict the ball might have gone
no one can know for certain the exact path of the ball only if he had been bowled out and in as much as he had his pad in the way it's all intelligent conjecture
if we are using the computer as final arbiter we should so do or go back to how it was before 'technology'
ffs a lot of ppl are convinced the world is round when we all know it's still f*cking flat..always has been & always will beWink
Report pxb November 4, 2015 10:02 PM GMT
This could look like the draw is a possibility as long as Cook, Root and Taylor are around, although I can see at least 2 of them out by lunch.

BTW, there is no such thing as 'proof' in science. You can only say that some statement has some probability of being correct based on a particular set of data.

In the case of DRS, it shows the likeliest path of the ball based on the dataset it was calibrated with. It would nice to see the 95% or 99% probability cones, but statistics confuses most people. DRS doesn't take directly into account how wet the ball is, how shiny one side is, how good the bowler is at swinging the ball, etc. And you might be surprised at how large those probability cones are, if you could see them.

All in all, I think the current practice of most of the ball needs to be hitting the stumps to overturn an umps not out is a good solution to the inherent uncertainty of DRS. Although, all of the ball missing is a less good solution to overturning an out call.
Report johnnythebull November 4, 2015 10:15 PM GMT
i thought the whole of the ball had to be hitting to overturn an ump's not out
don't really follow your last sentence..pxb
surely all of the ball missing is pretty incontrovertible?
no system is perfect so i guess we'll all have to live with its anomalies
i don't know if any concrete studies have been done vis-a-vis how 'correct' umpires decisions were prior to the implementation of technology vs since
Report jucel69 November 4, 2015 10:54 PM GMT
The way Cook & Root struggled leads me to only one conclusion, Pak win.
Report pxb November 4, 2015 10:59 PM GMT
Injera,

I believe the rule is more than half the ball must be inside an imaginary line drawn down the centre of the outer stumps to overturn an LBW not out.

Although, all of the ball missing is a less good solution to overturning an out call.. Because there is some uncertainty with ball tracker, a ball that is predicted to just miss the stumps may in fact have gone on to hit the stumps. Therefore, you can not say the umpire was clearly wrong in giving it out. He may in fact have been right. The criteria should be the ball is missing by some margin, say half the width of the ball to make it consistent with overturning a not out decision. (Without getting into probabilities)
Report Fatslogger November 5, 2015 1:16 AM GMT
Although then you'd not be overturning a lot of outs. The problem with what I think of as hard employment of tracking tech (as in if ball clipping bail or stump, out) is that batsmen would then be out a lot more and the balance between bat and ball might be adversely affected. On some of the more turgid surfaces in tests that might not be too harmful but imagine how few runs the teams would have scored in the Ashes.

On his game, find it very hard to see a draw.  The only path is really for Cook to stay in all day but enough wickets to fall steadily at the other end that England can't afford to take risks going for the runs but obviously not enough wickets to be all out. I suppose if England end up 9 down, Stokes won't be scoring any but then he doesn't look like he'll be able to stay in either, based on first innings.
Report Esox November 5, 2015 5:54 AM GMT
Started the thread because I saw an in form Kevin Pieterson knocking 6s all over the place, then everything I wrote would not post, dont know why.
Report Esox November 5, 2015 5:57 AM GMT
The Dolphins v Lions thread that is. England could use KP right now.
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 6:04 AM GMT
out
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:05 AM GMT
that's all she wrote..be lucky to get 150
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 6:05 AM GMT
People again backing england down to 4.1. Must be bonkers
Report Esox November 5, 2015 6:05 AM GMT
Oh no Joe. Cry
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 6:06 AM GMT
Pak 1.25 is a cracking bet. Only 6 wickets left in 89 overs
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 6:08 AM GMT
Baba is going to be hoarse by the end of the day
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:09 AM GMT
X still well low at 14.5..i suppose optimism is healthy
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 6:09 AM GMT
england are still 8sLaugh
Report Esox November 5, 2015 6:19 AM GMT
Be lucky to get to lunch.
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:20 AM GMT
'when you're down & troubled & you need a helping hand...'
Report pxb November 5, 2015 6:20 AM GMT
Looking good for Pak backers.
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:21 AM GMT
to think Eng were 1.51
Report Injera November 5, 2015 6:21 AM GMT
Toast anyone?
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:22 AM GMT
chalk & cheese their spinners & ours
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 6:23 AM GMT

Nov 5, 2015 -- 6:21AM, johnnythebull wrote:


to think Eng were 1.51


and even worse 2s last night. The ball did plenty in Pak's 2nd innings, it just the fact we bowled loads of full tosses/long hops. It was pretty obvious really

Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 6:23 AM GMT
*it's
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 6:24 AM GMT
Last time England were here they were out for 70 odd on a flat track, so it is to be expected once it turns and keeps low
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 6:24 AM GMT
5 down
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:25 AM GMT
i got up to lay Eng thought i'd wait a bit didn't botherSad
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 6:25 AM GMT
plumber than a plumb
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 6:25 AM GMT
still can get 5% roi. Better than the banks!
Report sageform November 5, 2015 6:26 AM GMT
Off to the beach by lunch What a shower
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:27 AM GMT
good bowling but pretty pathetic in all honesty
talk the talk but can't walk the walk
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 6:27 AM GMT
They might as well have a slog now
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:28 AM GMT
f*ck me!
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 6:29 AM GMT
Laugh
Report Esox November 5, 2015 6:29 AM GMT
LaughLaughLaugh
Report rommel November 5, 2015 6:29 AM GMT
boneless wonders,f***************** meeeeeeeeeeeeee
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 6:30 AM GMT
It's doing plenty to be fair but expecting us to get 284 was a stretch of anybody's imagination
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:30 AM GMT
4 for 13 in half an hour..capitulation doesn't even come into it
Report rommel November 5, 2015 6:32 AM GMT
easy sitting here tho,boundary every fckn ball sitting here on my big fat a***Laugh
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:32 AM GMT
if these spinners were bowling at their own batsmen i guarantee they wouldn't have lost 4 in 30 mins
Report rommel November 5, 2015 6:33 AM GMT
ooo johnny youre so right it hurts
Report rommel November 5, 2015 6:34 AM GMT
why the fck didnt i pile on pak?????
Report rommel November 5, 2015 6:36 AM GMT
wouldnt fancy that spin tho jeez
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:41 AM GMT
which is the more value bet..Eng at 65 or the X at 55?Grin
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:43 AM GMT
c'mon Adil..another 4 hour tenure at the crease..brah
Report rommel November 5, 2015 6:45 AM GMT
write england off at your peril
Report rommel November 5, 2015 6:45 AM GMT
Laugh
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:46 AM GMT
is it April 1st out there?
some joker's obviously told England they've got a 3rd inns!
Report rommel November 5, 2015 6:46 AM GMT
think back 45 minutes and think,i knewwwwwww i fckn knewwwwwwwwwww
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:48 AM GMT
get a medic on for CookGrin
Report rommel November 5, 2015 6:49 AM GMT
HOLD ON,HAVE WE BEEN TOO HASTY
Report rommel November 5, 2015 6:50 AM GMT
writing these men of steel off
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:51 AM GMT
ia word..NOWink
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 6:51 AM GMT
in a
Report rommel November 5, 2015 6:52 AM GMT
its gotta be an out b4 lunch job,feet up,read the times,phone mater
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 7:07 AM GMT
England down to 6th after this defeat. Pak go to 2nd
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 7:17 AM GMT
the enforcer to come in..he & Cook both get tons..job's a goodun
Report rommel November 5, 2015 7:22 AM GMT
nice litle callopso,lunch,beer by the pool,you know it makes sense
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 7:38 AM GMT
Broadie getting a bit p*ssed off with Rashid

if this continues won't have time to get his century
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 7:42 AM GMT
draw flying in now
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 7:43 AM GMT
and England, brilliant stuff. Had a fun bet on both as a long suffering Englishman!
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 7:46 AM GMT
Overall England have played well, but it has been a few individuals rather than as a team. There is a lot of dead wood in the side. Hasn't helped losing 3 tosses
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 7:48 AM GMT
they didn't apply themselves enough in the 1st half hour irrespective of how testing the bowling was
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 7:49 AM GMT
1.15 Pak was massive..gone now
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 7:50 AM GMT
Surely they play a few shots now, pointless trying to poke about
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 7:52 AM GMT
defeatist..juce..they can bat 2 sessionsWink
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 7:56 AM GMT
good 50 in the circumstances
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 8:01 AM GMT
Bell,Root,Taylor,Bairstow,Patel..combined total..8 match winning runsCry
Report jucel69 November 5, 2015 8:02 AM GMT

Nov 5, 2015 -- 8:01AM, johnnythebull wrote:


Bell,Root,Taylor,Bairstow,Patel..combined total..8 match winning runs


dogshit

Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 8:03 AM GMT
ain't that good
Report pxb November 5, 2015 8:59 AM GMT
England have the run rate well under control here.Excited
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 9:17 AM GMT
fin d'histoire
Report johnnythebull November 5, 2015 9:22 AM GMT
pak touched 6.6,Eng 1.51,X 2.16..plenty of volatility
absorbing match save for limp 4th inns by Eng
Report Fatslogger November 6, 2015 1:02 PM GMT
First test I've really done any trading on, rather than just having bets that looked like good ones at the time in terms of my (almost certainly flawed) perception of value. Think I had 19 matched bets and was pretty happy with most of them, although the various draw lays and high exposure had me just a little nervous at one point or another. I managed to get one trading draw back in at 3.5 when the draw had drifted despite wickets not falling in Pak second innings (think when they were 4 down) thinking I'd be able to lay it back when things crashed and then a wicket fell but have to recognise that as an occupational hazard and I still won pretty big on the Pak win. Thanks to everyone who answered my naive trading questions, especially pxb and BJT. Much appreciated.
Report pxb November 6, 2015 7:49 PM GMT
Fatslogger, It's nice to have someone serious about learning how to trade Tests.
Report Fatslogger November 6, 2015 8:37 PM GMT
Given that I've been a cricket tragic and indeed cricket message board tragic for many years and have been gambling with Betfair for the last two it's a bit odd that I've not found you all before. It's not as if I've not been betting on cricket in that time either, although I've been concentrating on some football minor markets that have some profitability. Anyway, will be keeping a closer eye on the test match markets from now on. Clearly there are some principles that are fairly obvious if you know cricket and some that are far less so.
Report Foinavon November 6, 2015 8:47 PM GMT
A thing to bear in mind Fatslogger is that although the market can appear to stagnate at times, a position which is looking favourable can sometimes turn against you at remarkable speed. You have to be alert for such tipping points as momentum can build very quickly especially when there is weather about.
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