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I've asked bf to put up the markets for this.
Only 3 Tests played here, all draws, all rain affected, which doesn't tell us much. In the first Test played here, the first innings wasn't even completed.
Surprisingly, it rains less in the hills than it does on the coast. Forecast looks pretty good (with the usual caveats on tropical weather).
So far batting has been about even, but SL bowling better.
Another draw lay I think.
Only 3 Tests played here, all draws, all rain affected, which doesn't tell us much. In the first Test played here, the first innings wasn't even completed.
Surprisingly, it rains less in the hills than it does on the coast. Forecast looks pretty good (with the usual caveats on tropical weather).
So far batting has been about even, but SL bowling better.
Another draw lay I think.
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Jul 2, 2015 -- 10:00PM, King of Dubai wrote:
Do they not have First Class games in Kandy?? Can't find anything :/
http://www.espncricinfo.com/sri-lanka-v-pakistan-2015/content/ground/434211.html
On the right hand side of the screen there is fixtures & results. Click on results & it gives you recent results
Official forecast for Kandy, 'Several spells of showers.' But satellite clear 2 hours before play.
If the reports of a green wicket are correct, should be win toss and bowl.
I'll shift most of my green onto whoever bowls first.
If the reports of a green wicket are correct, should be win toss and bowl.
I'll shift most of my green onto whoever bowls first.
A bit too keen to green up there, but with AFL and Wimbledon on, a busy day.
dean jones talking about what the players are eating for lunch & it's ramadan!!
What sources of audio/video are best to use for trading this match
pak look a touch short here - still respectable first innings total if they get to 300+
Jul 3, 2015 -- 1:03PM, King of Dubai wrote:
On the right hand side of the screen there is fixtures & results. Click on results & it gives you recent resultsCheers jucel69, too drunk to bet anyway as it turned out.
never too drunk to bet, unless of course you pass out!
Sitting very pretty after day 1. Going to try and just milk a bit more in the next 4 days rather than go gung ho!
The weather is still an issue for me. When you see how green the surrounding area is, then you know they have plenty of rain!
Similar thoughts to jucel, but with a bit more faith in the forecast.
Pak a bit short here relative to SL. Expect SL to put up a good bowling performance tomorrow.
Pak a bit short here relative to SL. Expect SL to put up a good bowling performance tomorrow.
Forecast (showers) and satellite (clear) identical to yesterday. Match should move along nicely today.
IM short the draw on this one.... happy with yesterday and hoping to let it ride a bit further. Agree you pxb that SL look a little long.. think they will bowl ok here as well.
Not the best for trading but anything can happen with four days to go. I did lay the draw pre at 2.7 and i am happy to let that ride for a while. Pakistan looks a little short for me but not enough for me to get involved with, which makes Sri Lanka a small value bet @3.15 with a view to lay within the next 12 hrs. GL everyone and happy trading.
One thing you learn over time is how much the last few wickets can change the odds. That last wicket can really get the odds going in the bowling side's favour. Sometimes it can be 40/50 points by the time the change of innings has occurred.
There we go 40 ticks - from 2.6 to 2.2 already! Pak 40-0 after 10 and they will be 1.9!!
That is quite interesting jucel, because by all accounts, the "expected" happened this morning... so for 40 ticks to occur... must keep this one in the memory banks.
And back out again another 50 ticks. That's why we love test cricket.
rain forecast tomorrow, i'm walking away. This looks like the sort of place that attracts rain from nowhere!!! It's got a rainforest feel about it and that can be biblical at times!
have taken profits on the draw lay at 7.6
The potential gain from here is small compared with the potential loss of profit. If the draw price falls back significantly over the next day or so will consider laying it again.
The potential gain from here is small compared with the potential loss of profit. If the draw price falls back significantly over the next day or so will consider laying it again.
Well the draw price has cooled off a bit so gone back in and had a small lay at 5.4. Keeping plenty in reserve in case the price falls significantly further. The weather forecast doesn't look bad although I know they can be misleading but plenty of time left for a result.
Foinavon, didn't know the draw had gone out that far. Must have been draw backers panicking.
Weather looks similar to yesterday. One forecast saying morning rain, but not one I give much credit to.
Could see decent 2nd innings scores and heading for a result late day 4 or early day 5, weather permitting.
All in all, a very satisfactory run up to the Ashes.
Weather looks similar to yesterday. One forecast saying morning rain, but not one I give much credit to.
Could see decent 2nd innings scores and heading for a result late day 4 or early day 5, weather permitting.
All in all, a very satisfactory run up to the Ashes.
The draw went out to 8 at one point pxb as Pakistani wickets fell. I missed the peak but was happy to trade out near that price and wait for things to cool before laying again. I'm hoping you are right and Sri Lanka dig in tomorrow morning in which case the draw price should fall further allowing a better value lay. (If I'm lucky again it will be around the time I fall out of bed).
Jul 4, 2015 -- 10:10PM, Foinavon wrote:
The draw went out to 8 at one point pxb as Pakistani wickets fell. I missed the peak but was happy to trade out near that price and wait for things to cool before laying again. I'm hoping you are right and Sri Lanka dig in tomorrow morning in which case the draw price should fall further allowing a better value lay. (If I'm lucky again it will be around the time I fall out of bed).
It's a strange old deck. All different types of green grass & starting to get very dusty now even with all that grass covering. Once again though, poor batting from Pak, some dreadful shots tbf.
Some cricinfo muppet says it looks like the rain is settling in and the draw drops a 100 points. Made a bit of money on it though.
Jul 5, 2015 -- 6:11AM, pxb wrote:
Some cricinfo muppet says it looks like the rain is settling in and the draw drops a 100 points. Made a bit of money on it though.
missed that movement!!
the draw at 12s is mesmerising!! The ball is doing all sorts and we are not even half way through!! Not going to get any easier for the batsmen either
SL will do well to get another 100 runs. Mathew's arse will be tweaking, he will be playing for the draw from here!!
missed that movement!!Cry
It's not every day you back the draw at 6.4, and lay it at 4.4 ten minutes later.
It's not every day you back the draw at 6.4, and lay it at 4.4 ten minutes later.
Jul 5, 2015 -- 7:34AM, pxb wrote:
missed that movement!!CryIt's not every day you back the draw at 6.4, and lay it at 4.4 ten minutes later.
great feeling when you hit something like that.
ball seems to be getting wet & has subsequently stopped swinging as much. The nuances, oh the nuances of test cricket!!
Good morning, late riser today.
See the draw has gone out to 12 so cashed out again. Should have put more on last night but always glad to see a profit.
Very nice game this, well the whole series really.
See the draw has gone out to 12 so cashed out again. Should have put more on last night but always glad to see a profit.
Very nice game this, well the whole series really.
You would think that winning would be a walk in the park from here for Sri Lanka and the logical thing to do would be to transfer all the green to them. Still have some niggling doubts though, the weather, at what point will they declare, will they be bowled out cheaply tomorrow morning, will Pakistan go for glory or could they bat out a draw?
Sitting on my hands for now, anyone else have a view on the situation?
Sitting on my hands for now, anyone else have a view on the situation?
I'm keeping green on the draw only because of weather concerns.
Pakistan will have to score the highest total of the match to win. Not sure that happens very often. In fact I believe it's very rare.
Pakistan will have to score the highest total of the match to win. Not sure that happens very often. In fact I believe it's very rare.
Thanks Injera. Think I'll stick with level green on all results and walk away from the table now.
We have Cardiff on Wednesday so not long to wait for more action.
We have Cardiff on Wednesday so not long to wait for more action.
I think SL will try and bat past 350, to 375 maybe. Leaving 4.5 sessions to bowl out Pak.
But I feel they will be bowled out before lunch for around 340. A tough chase, but possible.
I don't expect to lose many overs to rain and a result looks very likely.
But I feel they will be bowled out before lunch for around 340. A tough chase, but possible.
I don't expect to lose many overs to rain and a result looks very likely.
I don't think Mathews will declare. He's ultra negative and will want to bat on and on and on. Again, he will still be thinking about that chase by Pak last year in Sharjah; 300 in 60 overs.
Looks cloudy across central SL so may have the odd shower today. I'm keeping that in mind as I really don't trust the weather in Kandy.
If Matthews were to fall early do you guys think that that would "perversely" lower the Sri lankan price as well as the Pakistani price? I am thinking that if Sri lanka bat slowly and conservatively their price may even lengthen... (hope not as I am green on Sri Lanka)
Maybe I am used to a NZ approach but WTH is Matthews doing blocking etc with the weather problems.... they are nigh on 300 ahead. What is the risk? Pathetic.
Pak need 376 off 170 overs. There will have to be a fair bit of rain to prevent a result now.
Jul 6, 2015 -- 8:02AM, Winner_of_all-the-TIME wrote:
draw seems more likely guys?
how??
new ball pitch, depends how many they lose in the first 15!
Jul 6, 2015 -- 8:54AM, pxb wrote:
Ali gone.
That's why it's always good to make all your cash before the last innings. The last innings can be real ebb & flow
Had a stupid speculative bet on Pak after the first wicket at 10s
Just remember jucel that Pakistan are not going to get another 312 runs so do lay off at some stage....
Jul 6, 2015 -- 9:51AM, tyco161 wrote:
Just remember jucel that Pakistan are not going to get another 312 runs so do lay off at some stage....
timing is everything!!
This is the right approach, no point propping and copping! If you go aggressive against Mathews he fills his pants.
Timing is indeed everything... good luck. Im green on Sri Lanka but better pakistan win than a draw for me
laid some off now. The odds are stuck at 4. Normally when they stick like this for ages, there is a wicket
I was just about to suggest it is time to lay some off... 10 to 4 is a nice movement...
flip fu*kin' flop
Starting to think about laying Pak soon. They love a collapse!
Starting to think about laying Pak soon. They love a collapse!
Pak are such an enigmatic team, they can win and lose you fortunes! To be fair they owe me a lot over the last few years
I'm afraid you will need a lot of rain.
I have a largeish green on Pak, as I thought they were a chance. Hope no one backed Lanka at short odds.
I have a largeish green on Pak, as I thought they were a chance. Hope no one backed Lanka at short odds.
Jul 6, 2015 -- 12:53PM, pxb wrote:
I'm afraid you will need a lot of rain.I have a largeish green on Pak, as I thought they were a chance. Hope no one backed Lanka at short odds.
I'm massive green on Pak, makes up for all the stings I have had from them over the years!
It's been a strange series, I've been massively down at times, but always managed to claw it back & won handsomely in all 3. I haven't lost on a test match now since 7th August 2014 when England beat India @ Manchester. That really stung as I had a huge green on the draw & there was impending doom on the last two days. India couldn't even bat a session (with 10 wickets) and that was with Broad injured and Anderson sick.
Don't ask about the WC though & various 20/20 matches!! Probably done well to make a few grand in the last year & hours & hours of stress.
Don't ask about the WC though & various 20/20 matches!!
Probably done well to make a few grand in the last year & hours & hours of stress.
Good on you Jucel... dont get greedy and keep it at the short odds though> I find that in test cricket to make money is to lay short odds, and back long odds consistently over time. I almost never back short odds in test matches.
Yeh me too. I've already greened up with a heavier leaning to Pak.
Weather looks good for a result.
I don't go big on Tests any more. I don't need the stress. Besides big loses mess with your psychology and result in dumb moves.
I don't go big on Tests any more. I don't need the stress. Besides big loses mess with your psychology and result in dumb moves.
Jul 6, 2015 -- 10:51PM, pxb wrote:
Weather looks good for a result.I don't go big on Tests any more. I don't need the stress. Besides big loses mess with your psychology and result in dumb moves.
Yes, I've had some biblical losses in the past. I don't keep so much money now in my BF account & therefore my exposure is less. It stops spontaneous and stupid bets. I've had some very stressful nights watching radars/pontificating about my position.
I keep some in skrill and some in deposit accounts that take time to access. If you have loads in the BF account, sometimes you can have a brain fade as it's so accessible.
Especially when you have had a few too many... feel bulletproof at times. Although I do find for trading that a couple of beers is not too bad as it makes you less risk averse and you do tend to put on trades that are worth it that otherwise may not have been contemplated. A very fine line...
However I always remember when I've had a few too many and I lose. Always blame the grog then.
The worst is if you have a trade on & fall asleep (drunk), then wake up to a loss. Painful to say the least
The worst is if you have a trade on & fall asleep (drunk), then wake up to a loss. Painful to say the least
haha I know what you mean there... done that once or twice... trade with the intention of trading out and not being able to stay awake. I do not drink too often so no problems there but sometimes coming back from a night out I have to discipline myself not to log into the account.
Just flicked on the match, Pakistan have gone from 1.45 into 1.15 based on the fact they have scored 20 odds run or so today
rain lingering around in the 2nd and 3rd sessions according to Rameez Raja
looking at the pictures I hardly doubt rain is going to have an affect for the time being
Need 3 wickets with the new ball for 30 runs & then could get interesting. If it rains the market will go wild
What pictures are OK to watch this match for trading?
Is it TenCricket from satellite or a stream from TenCricket.com or some other source of pics?
Is it TenCricket from satellite or a stream from TenCricket.com or some other source of pics?
This will be the 6th highest successful run chase in a Test match
Pakistan move up to number 3 in the world rankings
This is the Pakistan we know and hate. Great one game, dreadful the next.
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