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Cricket
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Can anyone please help me figuring out exactly how do the odds move at an event like a wicket or a 6 and who sets the pace?
E.g. SL (1.40) at home and 6 down need 40 runs of 30 balls against Aus and a wicket falls, how would the odds be decided after the wicket? 1.70 or 1.80 or 2.20?
Thanks! : )
E.g. SL (1.40) at home and 6 down need 40 runs of 30 balls against Aus and a wicket falls, how would the odds be decided after the wicket? 1.70 or 1.80 or 2.20?
Thanks! : )
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You are assuming that cricket odds are determined in a similar manner to soccer, where statistics from the past are a reliable indicator of the progress/outcome of a match.
I know there are people using statistical models to predict cricket matches, although few if any, will be granular to the level of a six, a wicket maybe. To answer your question: There are more factors at play in cricket (pitch, weather, batsmen/bowlers left, fielding tactics, ground size, overs left) and I don't think models are that influential in setting in-play odds. Punter perceptions are likely the most important factor in determining odds at a significant event. |