England v Australia - The Ashes

the difference is quality of bowling attack and it's a significant difference

Pitches in England and Wales are not like those in the Caribbean, the comparison is flawed.

Australia are 1.37 to win the Ashes series. Much shorter than any previous Ashes I've traded. I certainly won't be opossing them at that price or probably any price. Bowling simply too good.

Jun 6, 2015 -- 12:22PM, Foinavon wrote:

Pitches in England and Wales are not like those in the Caribbean, the comparison is flawed.

Agree.Hazlewood will much more of handful in Blighty

I am guessing it is the shortest pre-ashes price the aussies have been since the 2002/03 series.

England have a chance on green tops as they do possess skill in helpful conditions but financial constraints will result in sub continental - nuovo Caribbean type pitches.

We care doomed, don't panic and other similar type stuff

It's a real shame KP wasn't batting for Surrey to heap more pressure on the ECB and Whittaker head of selectors! I dont know much about Bayliss but I like the fact he has taken the cleaver to the T20/ODI squad.

The big problem for England as some have already stated is our bowling attack does not match up. It will be interesting what plans Bayliss has to deal with this and we don't have a proper spinner so they go after whatever we throw up. Do we have any containing bowlers? How quick can we rough up the ball?

I don't think we can out bat them. We certainly will not out bowl them. All we can do is out cunning them and with Cook in charge we know that is not going to happen. Over to you Coach!

Actually we're more likely to out bat our out bowl them than out field them

pretty sure oz started the 2006/07 series sub 1.2 against that england team minus vaughan, trescothick, jones and panesar

Starting to get some action in the series markets. Australia to win 4-0 is currently favourite.

The weather and OZ bowler fitness are my main concerns. Look at the difference Boult's injury made to NZ. Warne thinks Harris should play instead of Hazlewood.

Aussies look too short to me. Not won in Eng since 2001, & while this Oz squad has put together a decent run of results there is something of the emperor's new clothes about them.

The last series in Oz was like facing a feral bunch of sociopaths who had been living off raw meat since the previous summer defeat in England. I don't think they will be able to play with the same intensity & Eng have enough quality to be competitive in this series but Eng will need to start the series well & not allow the Aussies to get on top early.

conditions are King.  Given the relative strengths of the two attacks it would be a major surprise for England to serve up anything other than (ahem) "5 day pitches".  I'm a buyer at 20 minutes for the first time Shane Warne whinges about the Cardiff deck having been doctored to be low and slow.  It was a 400-500 deck in 2009 and will inevitably be so again in 2 weeks time.  So although it may be thought that England would be better rolling the dice with a green top or two, it's just not going to happen.  England will try to grind on batsmen friendly pitches and hope for a collapse or two.  Both teams will need to be patient and back up bowlers (seamers and spinners will be crucial).  Last time round (in England) England were able to cobble together enough runs at key moments to squeak home in close matches; this time the Aus batting will probably be stronger and the neutralising effect of conditions on both bowling sides will make it a slog.  Aus by a Test in my opinion but no surprise if it were 1-1 or something.  Couldn't be a backer of Aus at current prices.

I think you are right about pitches, but still think the Australian seamers will take early wickets, leaving England to grind out a score. Without major weather, I be surprised if we see more than 1 draw.

I'm not predicting 4-0, but I can see why it's favourite.

there's no doubt in my mind that their bowling is very good, but i still think their batting isn't top drawer. It can be brittle and it has been in the west indies at times. Piggy Smith and Voges saved them in their first innings in both matches. And the batting wasn't great in the last ashes series.

i think we have a chance if the conditions are helpful for bowling and Broad and Anderson stop bowling like massive ***** when we've got a side more than 6 down.


if we play on batsmen friendly wickets, with no rasheed, we are absolutely f*cked. Australia's real strength is their bowling in good batting conditions and there is an almighty, series deciding chasm between the sides then.

yep not at all convinced by australia's batting and surely brad haddin can't keep bailing them out ? he has a really average test record but always seems to overperform against england.

think they've been skittled for under 300 12 times in the last 3 tours here. if they can't improve on that england will be bang in with a chance

i'd be inclined to take a punt and promote moeen to number 3 and play rashid as well. he might be the answer to england's continuing problems in getting out the tail. much harder for tail enders to slog if they're not sure which variation he's bowling

my one bet for the series is Smith top Aussie bat @ 11/4 - that'll do for me

The Rashid card is a big one that is unlikely to be played. Cook has no faith in him and and Aussie will go after him. That said the pitches might be 5 day batting paradises but may get dry too. I think it is a good joker to try in that the lad can be acommodated as he can bat and we have to take 20 wickets to win a match. He may be useful in the second innings once, maybe twice. Ballance has to go and Ali could be given a try at 3.

England will need to work out a permutation. They have plenty of batting down to 9 but have to work out how to take 20 wickets. Wood can bat at 9 with Anderson and then The Enforcer. England have more back up options in Stokes, Ali, Root and Rashid.

Personally I'd like to see Stokes bat at 3. He has it all and needs to learn his craft.

I'd like to see England line up something like

Co ck
Lyth
Bell
Root
Ali
Stokes
Butler
Rashid
Wood
Anderson
Broad / Finn

I am not sure Rashid is actually that good but given the right circumstances he may come up trumps. It will be an attritional series but a line up like this with 7 bowling options allows the wicket takers to bowl with conviction and not constriction.

England's problem if pitches take spin, is Lyon is better than any of the English offerings.

England's best chance of winning matches is their middle order around Root get good batting conditions, pile on the runs, while Aus get the misty overcast conditions for batting, you almost never see in Aus.

Aus win 3-1 is probably my favoured outcome.

Warnie's a clown if he doesn't think Hazlewood should be in Oz team. Hazlewood is the next Glenn McGrath and arguably our best bowler now imo. Harris not far behind (when he's fit) then comes Johnson who just edges it over Stark, despite losing pace over last year or so.

Whichever of those four bowlers misses out they will be quite unlucky, as the 4th best Oz pace bowler is still far superior to the poms best pace bowler.

Still got major question markets over Oz batting. They always seem to bat in first gear and are too stubborn to shift down a gear or two when the game situation requires them to. Luckily for them they don't have to face the quality bowlers that Oz possess.

Despite Oz clearly having the superior team, home advantage for the poms will ensure a tightly fought series. Possible 2-2 scoreline... Home ground advantage is being underestimated by betting markets, just like it has for the last 1000 test matches

mafeking 22 Jun 15 21:06 
yep not at all convinced by australia's batting and surely brad haddin can't keep bailing them out ? he has a really average test record but always seems to overperform against england.

think they've been skittled for under 300 12 times in the last 3 tours here. if they can't improve on that england will be bang in with a chance

i'd be inclined to take a punt and promote moeen to number 3 and play rashid as well. he might be the answer to england's continuing problems in getting out the tail. much harder for tail enders to slog if they're not sure which variation he's bowling


this, this and this again.

two basic leg break deliveries at the tail: the chucked up above the eyeline big rip leg break and the googlie. about 10* more effective than the **** anderson and broad bowl like to bowl at the tail.

Get Broad out and put some other 83 mph **** from the country championship

A decent quick leftie will often get the nod. I think it's a good call.

England must be brave leave Ballance out in favour of a more dynamic number 3. I too would opt for Moeen and bring in Rashid at 8.

A number 8 is there to get 30s not tons. Rashid can do that. He doesn't have to be the main spinner either. We have 2 others. He can be used when conditions suit and especially if/when we're bowling last with plenty to defend.

Hard to find room for the excellent Plunkers unless they leave Broad out. Can't see them doing that..

It will be a classic series. Not sure Dad's Army will stay the distance..

King of Dubai 23 Jun 15 16:35 
Surely they will only pick from "pre-Ashes training camp squad" to begin with, so we won't be seeing Rashid??

They'll probably draft him in when Moeen can't run through them on a 5th day pitch and the series is lost!


and then cook wont have the stones to bowl him, throwing the ball to root first.

imo Cook is the real stumbling block for England

Would like to see Rashid play, but there is no point picking a bowler that the captain won't bring on. Maybe England should change the captain.

you cannot put Moeen at 3.  He's an adequate 7, in no way qualified technically to bat 3.

Jun 26, 2015 -- 4:55AM, bigpoppapump wrote:

you cannot put Moeen at 3.

Batted the entire 5th day at Lord's last year. As technically good an innings you'll see given the context.

Just don't like the similarity of the top 4.

AUS are shi tting themselves, FACT

Why. Are they on a percentage of the gate and worried that the game might not go the distance?

Jun 29, 2015 -- 4:20AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:

Why. Are they on a percentage of the gate and worried that the game might not go the distance?

look, plain and simple, the sight of alistair kock at the crease strikes the fear of death into the aussies, they dont want any piece of this series

http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/667901.html

The scorecard from Moeen's one and only Test Century.  Without dismissing his achievement entirely it's worth pointing out the way the pitch had flattened out - witness both team's second innings scores versus their first.  I'd also look at the nature of the SL bowling (no quicks) which is the very weakness MA displays most consistently. 

For any serious number 3 prospect surely you want to see a good player of quick bowling and the short ball? To my eye he plays uppishly through gully off the back foot or he pulls the straighter short balls (again in the air).  He's also been out bowled in 5 of his 17 innings (29%) which is too high for a proper batsman.  Ian Bell (for example's sake) has been bowled 29/190 Test Innings = 15% of dismissals; and has generally batted higher than Ali so facing fresher bowlers with a newer ball (all things being equal).

Not saying Ali cannot do a job down the order but he doesn't look like a proper Test 3 to me.

I don't think he is a 3 either at least not yet. Better to keep him down the order for a spot of counter attacking on decent pitches. This will be a war of attrition and having him coming in at 7 or 8 will be useful.

I think Bell is our technically best batsman. I hope he recovers his form. He needs to bat at 3 for me and take responsibility giving the likes of Stokes, Butler and Ali a softer ball to twaite around. Root at 4 as he is playing so well.

If Ding Dong can't cut the mustard at 3 I would drop him and give Stokes a go at 3 which is a bold move but exciting. I remember Bell never made the first century in a match for a very long time. He is a wonderful player but needs to stand up and be counted as far as I am concerned. I'd give him two games to show his class. There appear to be a number of hungry young batters around at the moment. Fortes fortuna adiuvat and also as we say down my way qui audet adipiscitur Rodney.

"Bonnet de Douche" WD

oui mon diu

apres moi le deluge my favourite i think

jonny bairstow for one in red hot form. there is a case for taking the gloves off buttler in test cricket at least so he can concentrate on his batting. he's too good long term to be burdened with keeping and just chipping in with fast scoring cameos. he needs to be batting higher up the order in all forms

a good player but like many at the moment too much bottom hand for Test Cricket ihmo. he does deserve a chance though and I would put Bell under pressure. Plenty of Tyro's and Young Guns out there. I like the way Broad got dropped despite being " The best white ball bowler in the the World! "

This series will be closer than most think, Australia have been getting to many runs from the tail to dominate over 5 tests and 3 of the top 6 are suspect, bowlers are all top shelf and will prove the edge but it will be tough hard ashes cricket

Anyone think Bayliss will drop Ballance and play a more aggresive number 3?

Shirley a new coach must make his mark and the first way is via selection. Rashid is now in the 13 but Bayliss has said he may play as a SECOND spinner. That would mean leaving out either Wood or Stokes.

That won't happen.

Could play Bell at 3, as WD says, shove the rest up one and Rashid at 8.

Cherche La Femme my favourite

I'd say the choice is between Rashid and Ballance and I think Rashid will get the nod. Pitch might be dry. Sure he gets wacked first up but if Aussie bat last then he could be the man. 4 seamers plus Ali and Root should be enough bowlers for the first innings. Whether Aus will need to bat twice is another question!

I agree with many that their batting is brittle but our bowling looks toothless on 5 day Accountant's wickets.

Garcon le petit pois

Harris is a massive loss for the Aussies. 57 wickets at 20.63 is a difficult gap to fill (Cook 8 times & Bell 7). He seems to stifle us in the same way that Mcgrath did.
All the others have limited experience in England & have not fared particularly well!
Johnson's record in England - 23 wickets at 37.78
Nathan Lyon's record in England - 9 wickets at 33.66
Mitchell Starc's record in England - 11 wickets at 32.45
Josh Hazlewood has never played a test in England
Not sure Siddle will play. Since he made the ridiculous decision to become a vegan he looks a shadow of his former self

Add to that England have only lost 3 home series in the last 8 years - 2 to SA & a strange one to SL last year

I've changed my tune a bit in recent months & I now think England have a decent chance. The bowling and the opener are still a concern, but I'm hoping Stokes and Wood can rise to the occasion & support Anderson/Broad. I'd like to see Ali & Rashid play to bolster our attack.

Eng - in this order for me - Cook, Lyth, Bell, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Rashid, Ali, Wood, Anderson, Broad. I have Broad at 11, but if it were up to me I would have him as 'absent injured' every innings. Might make him grow a pair of bollox!

Aus - Warner, Rogers, S Marsh, Clarke, Smith, M Marsh, Haddin, Johnson, Starc, Lyon, Hazlewood.

TBH, I'm glad Harris is out. It means we will see Hazlewood and Starc with the new ball, and they will really trouble the England batsmen. Johnson past his best, but is still capable of mopping up the tail. Series will hinge on how well England's middle order fare.

Australia's batting lineup not the best, but should be good enough against England's bowling.

Without rain or dead flat pitches, I don't foresee any draws.

Starc has a suspect attitude for mine. Watching him cry off against India last year set the alarm bells ringing for me. Hazlewood unproven at this level. Last time around (2013) Pattinson and Starc were meant to rip England a new one!! Both made little impression over the series, with Pattinson getting injured and Starc dropped a few times

England look rejuvenated under Bayliss and Australia are as strong as ever. Should be a cracking series. Michael Clarke & co. has the extra motivation of winning the Ashes for the first time in 14 yrs in the English soil. Australia deservedly starts the series as favorites, but you never know. A good first 2 days of Cricket from England will change the whole complexion of the series.

Lyon 0-57 from 6

Good write up jucel. I think many feel Ballance could make way for Rashid but I'll believe it when I see it. Would give Cook more options and we lose little from the batting.

Ballance isn't the key to winning this series. I reckon the openers, our exciting lower middle order and our 5th day options will be..

the indian batting line up england made look pretty hapless by the end of the series made 400 in each first innings last winter

i do think the potency of the oz attack is being overegged somewhat. starc and hazlewood are still very raw at test level

I am starting to believe and then I look at my Betfair Balance!  Wake up folks!

Having said that I do think England should be able to put up a fight and if they do the chips will fall where the chips will fall.

My instinct is to oppose Aus at evens or odds on. I dont think they will win 3 Test Matches particularly if England start well.  A good toss and a benign batting strip might be a good equaliser.

I don't think we have the bowling attack to win this series but we may have a lot of bowlers in the side which may help.

We have a few biffers which on a flat deck might deflate some Aussie conceit. We also have a long batting effort which will need to be dismissed. I hope they take the game to Aus in the hope one or two of 8 will come off.

Harris is a big loss but I rate Starc and Hazlewood highly, that with MJ and Lyon to me means Aus have the tools. I don't think we shall see trundler friendly wickets. The have enough pace to obtain reverse in dry conditions. It might boil down to luck and like I said where the chips fall.

Their batting can be fragile but we need 20 wickets to win a match.

Defense de fume

Given England's batting fragility and Australia's bowling, I'd be amazed if we go into the first test of five with only four specialist batsmen. Might be an option later in the series if we're behind and we prepare pitches to nullify Johnson et al, but first up, I doubt it. It truly is a new era under Strauss/Bayliss if Ballance is dropped.

I think only way Rashid plays is if he's picked ahead or Ali or Wood.

Jul 2, 2015 -- 12:18AM, mnbfrankel wrote:

England look rejuvenated under Bayliss and Australia are as strong as ever. Should be a cracking series. Michael Clarke & co. has the extra motivation of winning the Ashes for the first time in 14 yrs in the English soil. Australia deservedly starts the series as favorites, but you never know. A good first 2 days of Cricket from England will change the whole complexion of the series.

How do you figure they are rejuvenated under Bayliss when they haven't played an International match under him as yet?

Outside Smith and Warner, Australia's batting looks very suspect. Get both of them cheaply and England are in the game. Australia's tail however is the best in the world, they have gotten them out of difficulty many times over the past 2 years.

relative performance of the quick bowlers always decides the Ashes, FWIW

(Obviously it's only a week away and we're all giddy with excitement about what's key for both sides etc.  But it's about whose quicks are better...).

Have to be careful not to let heart rule head in these matches.

Can England win one? Possibly maybe probably.
Can England win two? Unlikely in my opinion.

Looks like the market has got it right in this first Test. I'm thinking of laying England at 4 and a bit since if they lose the price will be much bigger next time and I want to keep the draw onside for now. Waiting to see if the England price contracts nearer the off.

Ryan Harris has retired!!!

To be honest it was a big ask for him to return at his age from major surgery

And Hazlewood is being given the run around by Jesse Ryder in the Essex match - 26 off his first over with new ball!

I could score runs on that pitch

Jul 2, 2015 -- 3:14PM, JustWinBaby wrote:

Outside Smith and Warner, Australia's batting looks very suspect. Get both of them cheaply and England are in the game. Australia's tail however is the best in the world, they have gotten them out of difficulty many times over the past 2 years.

I am fairly sure you could go through every team in world cricket and single out 2 players that if removed cheaply put them under immense pressure

Dad's Army losing Private Godfrey must surely hurt...

Mitchell Starc will run riot this summer. Will miss rhino coming in at the tail and smashing england around with the bat more.

It seems unlikely that we will see a significantly lower price for England pre-match and it might go higher so have decided to take the price on offer and lay England now. Hoping for a docile track to bring the draw into play.