Jan 24, 2015 -- 11:52PM, pxb wrote:
What's the system?In general terms, if you don't want to go into specifics.
You shall see once I place bets, pretty straight forward ...
Jan 24, 2015 -- 11:56PM, King of Dubai wrote:
Schalke 04, I read elsewhere that you post as "Dimitrios - The master of Greek bets" Is that true??
No, that is not true .. I only ever post as Schalke 04
Jan 25, 2015 -- 12:18AM, King of Dubai wrote:
Not a rumour mate, somebody admitted it on another forum.The "Dimitrios" thing used to crack me up many years ago, just wondered if it was you.
Well, it's not me mate, I remember Dimitrios ... has he left the forum?
Jan 25, 2015 -- 1:20AM, BJT wrote:
I don't understand. You have been using this successful system for over 2 years, and to prove it, you bet 10 pence? WTF are you wasting everybody's time posting?
It's the only way it works, remember, it's not about what an individual bet makes, it's about what it makes overall. I am only 2 bets in and you slate it ... give it time
Jan 25, 2015 -- 10:43AM, BJT wrote:
He doesn't, he is simply a degenerate gambler that thinks by backing odds on shots, and using martingale that he will end up rich.
Jan 25, 2015 -- 11:35AM, Schalke 04 wrote:
I have never used Martingale for your informationWhy does a language barrier have to hinder a Germans ability to play cricket? I am pretty sure a german player would learn to communiate with fellow players as they would in any sport.PS, I am not German
lol. What do you think you are using right now? Not an even money Martingale, but exactly the same thing.....
Have you not learnt anything in your time here?
Let me put it to you this way. How much did your last thread make you? Went from February to October right, doing exactly the same thing as this, except of course to 7 bets, now you have added an extra. Being such a successful system over the last 2 years, how much has it made you?
Jan 25, 2015 -- 12:05PM, BJT wrote:
lolIt went for 8 months, and you put on 400 less than the system required. It was up 1400 apparantly when you lost the whole show, with the stakes adding up to 1852. Puts you around 500 down for 8 months, on a system you claim will take you from 130 to a million.Who is Phil Waters?The guy that claims:18th August 2006, 10:16 AM #10Phil WatersGuestI'm Schalke04, dimitrios, Mr_Winner, Stax, Hardy Eustace to name but a few.I post in the soccer forum mainly.that he is on the Betfair forum under those names........As for your 2600, I call bullsiht. If it was a winning system, you wouldn't be using 10 pence stakes, and it certainly wouldn't be a hobby if you seriously believe you will make a million out of it.Ridiculous thread, ridiculous poster.Not sure how much more I will bother biting, but you are clearly taking the piss, and have a SERIOUS amount of time to keep it up....
Go away and play with your firetruck
Jan 27, 2015 -- 10:32PM, Schalke 04 wrote:
I am not backing only between 3 and 7 or 8, I will simply back any wickets while I am in the house and able to get on the computer, so it's completely random selections unless I get time to watch a fuull match ... but, as for th prices teh bookies make CAUGHT, I think average odds of 1/2 is a give away .. I am well aware of probability, the reason why I have chosen to take advantage of this market
Schalke 04 • January 28, 2015 12:07 AM GMT
Cricket dismissal odds have been the same for the last 13 years ... BUT, the only way I have ever seen making a profit on this market possible is to do a staking plan based on what I am doing now, it is no use just lumping the odd one, or playing level stakes on this market .. I have in my 13 years watching cricket and doing bets on dismissal never seen any long running negative sequenses. there is always caught wickets in every match ... only problem is cricket is not and all day everyday sport and it is very time consuming to sit and bet a match all the time ..
Betting big is not an option ... and I shall not be using BF for next dismissal as it has already been pointed out by yourself liquidity is always an issue
Lets just see how this goes with what I have started, I won't be on the comp all that often but when I am I will place any bets I can on this one market ..
The sad thing is, you have no idea how much you contradict yourself. You can state you have been doing this for 13 years all you like, nobody on here agrees with you, and for good reason. There is no mathematical benefit in what you are doing.
Before going into the probability of it all, which you claim to know, but clearly have no idea, let me ask you a simple question.
If you claim to be a profitable punter over the last 13 years, with many winning threads, why are you not still using those strategies? Is all good having a winning thread, but you are doing is guaranteeing winning threads, because your probability of short term success, is very high. The problem though, is the probability of long term success is nil.
The longer you run it, the closer you are to busting your bank. Doesn't mean it won't happen straight away, but expectation is: (Assuming 100% expected wins vs expected win)
100 bets, you .946% chance of an 8 loss sequence.
200 bets, 1.948%
500 bets, 4.894%
1000 bets, 9.608%
2000 bets, 18.348%
5000 bets, 39.815%
10000 bets, 63.801%
The longer you run it, the more chance you have of going bust. So while you are locking in profits, and profits, and profits, when you hit the losing run, which you will do if you run it long enough, it will wipe out all profits, to the point where the guy running flat stakes was already at.
It is simple mathematics.
You have nearly a 1% chance of going bust after 100 bets. If you lay every 100.00 shot you can find, is it a winning strategy if you win the first 99 sequences? That is essentially what you are saying here.
If you are running a couple of % below, ie averaging 1.50, and running strike rate of 65%, then your %s change quite a bit. ie, expected longest losing sequence at 66.667% hits 8 in a row at 6565 bets. At 65%, that figure is 4441, and at 64% it is 3545 bets.
I notice you suggested keeping track of level stakes. Once again, I don't think you understand. The only meaningful comparison, would be expected wins / total wins.
Either way, if you aren't going to take peoples advice on here that you are heading for yet another big thud, then I look forward to the ensuing train wreck, as I suspect is everybody else that will monitor. One can only hope you really do think you are onto the holy grail, and it will be that much more entertaining because you will continue to run it.
Don't disappoint your fans.
Jan 28, 2015 -- 8:57AM, Schalke 04 wrote:
next bet: 3rd Sydney Sixers Wicket = CAUGHT v Perth Scorchers @ 4/7 - £3 to win £1.71
Wouldn't it be easier just to arb? If you are getting 1.57 caught, B365 has 3.00 not caught.... Make 6 months legitimate system money in 1 go....