Cricket
I hope you enjoy following the thread and seeing how profitable this system can be.
I shall be using 8 banks of bets, I shall be increasing bets as time goes on and withdrawing money along the way. 8 losing bets in a row is the ONLY way this system can lose. Enjoy
©Schalke 04©
1 - £0.10 / 2 - £0.30 / 3 - £1 / 4 - £3 / 5 - £9 / 6 - £30 / 7 - £100 8 - £300
Bank Increases every time minimum of £43.43 has been won + £10 banked (1)1p (2)3p (3)9p (4)30p (5)£1 (6)£3 (7)£9 (8)£30
Current Winnings for stake increase - £0
Money withdrawn from system - £0
Total Stakes - £0 / Total Winnings - £0
©Schalke 04©
In general terms, if you don't want to go into specifics.
Jan 24, 2015 -- 11:52PM, pxb wrote:
What's the system?In general terms, if you don't want to go into specifics.
You shall see once I place bets, pretty straight forward ...
Jan 24, 2015 -- 11:56PM, King of Dubai wrote:
Schalke 04, I read elsewhere that you post as "Dimitrios - The master of Greek bets" Is that true??
No, that is not true .. I only ever post as Schalke 04
Jan 25, 2015 -- 12:18AM, King of Dubai wrote:
Not a rumour mate, somebody admitted it on another forum.The "Dimitrios" thing used to crack me up many years ago, just wondered if it was you.
Well, it's not me mate, I remember Dimitrios ... has he left the forum?
1 - £0.10 / 2 - £0.30 / 3 - £1 / 4 - £3 / 5 - £9 / 6 - £30 / 7 - £100 8 - £300
Bank Increases every time minimum of £43.43 has been won + £10 banked (1)1p (2)3p (3)9p (4)30p (5)£1 (6)£3 (7)£9 (8)£30
1. 3rd New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 8/15 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - lost
2. 4th New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 1/2 - £0.30 to win £0.15 - WON
Current Winnings for stake increase - £0.05
Money withdrawn from system - £0
Total Stakes - £0.40 / Total Winnings - £0.05
©Schalke 04©
WTF are you wasting everybody's time posting?
A staking systems without a winning betting system is pointless.
And if you have a winning betting system, you are much better off trading than using a staking system because of commisions.
4th £3 quid to 1.75
5th £10 to £5
6th £35 to £17.50
seems like our our old friend marty??
did something like this when i first started on the runs on the spreads. was going great until rob key scored 200. lol. (i was going under each time) lol.
Jan 25, 2015 -- 1:20AM, BJT wrote:
I don't understand. You have been using this successful system for over 2 years, and to prove it, you bet 10 pence? WTF are you wasting everybody's time posting?
It's the only way it works, remember, it's not about what an individual bet makes, it's about what it makes overall. I am only 2 bets in and you slate it ... give it time
1 - £0.10 / 2 - £0.30 / 3 - £1 / 4 - £3 / 5 - £9 / 6 - £30 / 7 - £100 8 - £300
Bank Increases every time minimum of £43.43 has been won + £10 banked (1)1p (2)3p (3)9p (4)30p (5)£1 (6)£3 (7)£9 (8)£30
1. 3rd New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 8/15 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - lost
2. 4th New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 1/2 - £0.30 to win £0.15 - WON
3. 6th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - WON
Current Winnings for stake increase - £0.05
Money withdrawn from system - £0.05
Total Stakes - £0.50 / Total Winnings - £0.10
©Schalke 04©
1 - £0.10 / 2 - £0.30 / 3 - £1 / 4 - £3 / 5 - £9 / 6 - £30 / 7 - £100 8 - £300
Bank Increases every time minimum of £43.43 has been won + £10 banked (1)1p (2)3p (3)9p (4)30p (5)£1 (6)£3 (7)£9 (8)£30
1. 3rd New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 8/15 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - lost
2. 4th New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 1/2 - £0.30 to win £0.15 - WON
3. 6th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - WON
4. 7th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - WON
Current Winnings for stake increase - £0.10
Money withdrawn from system - £0.05
Total Stakes - £0.60 / Total Winnings - £0.15
©Schalke 04©
1 - £0.10 / 2 - £0.30 / 3 - £1 / 4 - £3 / 5 - £9 / 6 - £30 / 7 - £100 8 - £300
Bank Increases every time minimum of £43.43 has been won + £10 banked (1)1p (2)3p (3)9p (4)30p (5)£1 (6)£3 (7)£9 (8)£30
1. 3rd New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 8/15 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - lost
2. 4th New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 1/2 - £0.30 to win £0.15 - WON
3. 6th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - WON
4. 7th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - WON
5. 8th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 4/7 - £0.10 to win £0.06 - VOID
Current Winnings for stake increase - £0.10
Money withdrawn from system - £0.05
Total Stakes - £0.70 / Total Winnings - £0.15
©Schalke 04©
Why do you think a German, which I assume you are, can compete in a sport exclusive to the english speaking world and the subcontinent, and notorious for it's complexity?
Jan 25, 2015 -- 10:43AM, BJT wrote:
He doesn't, he is simply a degenerate gambler that thinks by backing odds on shots, and using martingale that he will end up rich.
Why does a language barrier have to hinder a Germans ability to play cricket? I am pretty sure a german player would learn to communiate with fellow players as they would in any sport.
PS, I am not German
Jan 25, 2015 -- 11:35AM, Schalke 04 wrote:
I have never used Martingale for your informationWhy does a language barrier have to hinder a Germans ability to play cricket? I am pretty sure a german player would learn to communiate with fellow players as they would in any sport.PS, I am not German
lol. What do you think you are using right now? Not an even money Martingale, but exactly the same thing.....
Have you not learnt anything in your time here?
Let me put it to you this way. How much did your last thread make you? Went from February to October right, doing exactly the same thing as this, except of course to 7 bets, now you have added an extra. Being such a successful system over the last 2 years, how much has it made you?
£2,600 is the answer to your question, I only do this system as a hobby and the last thread made a small loss as it quite clearly showed.
It went for 8 months, and you put on 400 less than the system required. It was up 1400 apparantly when you lost the whole show, with the stakes adding up to 1852. Puts you around 500 down for 8 months, on a system you claim will take you from 130 to a million.
Who is Phil Waters?
The guy that claims:
18th August 2006, 10:16 AM #10
Phil Waters
Guest
I'm Schalke04, dimitrios, Mr_Winner, Stax, Hardy Eustace to name but a few.
I post in the soccer forum mainly.
that he is on the Betfair forum under those names........
As for your 2600, I call bullsiht. If it was a winning system, you wouldn't be using 10 pence stakes, and it certainly wouldn't be a hobby if you seriously believe you will make a million out of it.
Ridiculous thread, ridiculous poster.
Not sure how much more I will bother biting, but you are clearly taking the piss, and have a SERIOUS amount of time to keep it up....
Jan 25, 2015 -- 12:05PM, BJT wrote:
lolIt went for 8 months, and you put on 400 less than the system required. It was up 1400 apparantly when you lost the whole show, with the stakes adding up to 1852. Puts you around 500 down for 8 months, on a system you claim will take you from 130 to a million.Who is Phil Waters?The guy that claims:18th August 2006, 10:16 AM #10Phil WatersGuestI'm Schalke04, dimitrios, Mr_Winner, Stax, Hardy Eustace to name but a few.I post in the soccer forum mainly.that he is on the Betfair forum under those names........As for your 2600, I call bullsiht. If it was a winning system, you wouldn't be using 10 pence stakes, and it certainly wouldn't be a hobby if you seriously believe you will make a million out of it.Ridiculous thread, ridiculous poster.Not sure how much more I will bother biting, but you are clearly taking the piss, and have a SERIOUS amount of time to keep it up....
Go away and play with your firetruck
1 - £0.10 / 2 - £0.30 / 3 - £1 / 4 - £3 / 5 - £9 / 6 - £30 / 7 - £100 8 - £300
Bank Increases every time minimum of £43.43 has been won + £10 banked (1)1p (2)3p (3)9p (4)30p (5)£1 (6)£3 (7)£9 (8)£30
1. 3rd New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 8/15 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - lost
2. 4th New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 1/2 - £0.30 to win £0.15 - WON
3. 6th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - WON
4. 7th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - WON
5. 8th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 4/7 - £0.10 to win £0.06 - VOID
6. 7th South Africa Wicket = CAUGHT v West Indies @ 4/7 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - lost
7. 8th West Indies Wicket = CAUGHT v South Africa @ 8/15 - £0.30 to win £0.16 - WON
Current Winnings for stake increase - £0.10
Money withdrawn from system - £0.11
Total Stakes - £1.10 / Total Winnings - £0.21
©Schalke 04©
That you may win over x bets, is pure random chance, assuming you don't have a winning betting system, and it appears you don't.
That advice is actually worth a lot of money, but I expect you will dismiss it out of hand.
Despite getting out of it, I learnt my lesson, never again!! Was a mug thing to do! Shalke it doesn't work. As the others have pointed out it is useless unless you have some sort of edge or effective betting system, otherwise it's just random. It's ok if you want to gamble but useless if you actually want to make money.
I believe Cricket holds the answer to making "Super"Martingale a success ... as with a lot of "challenges" "Systems" I have done on the forum this is a first attempt.I have done manymanymany bets on this market over the last 13 years and with my experience on it I had to go with this ... instead of saying this and thatabout it, why don't you all justsee how it pans out. Nobody can say it will do well or fail, that is the purpose of trying it out ...
It is simply a matter of time.
Martingale doesn't work, and is a road to the poor house. So you think you put that system on steroids and it will all of a sudden work? Umm no, it is exactly the same chance of success.
This is one of those ones where you don't need to run it for thousands of bets, because probablity tells you straight out, that it will not work. As you have proven, over and over again. To think that cricket is the answer is just another degenerate gambler trait.
Will give you the tip. A 1.50 shot, is 1.50 whether it being a catch in cricket, Australia to beat England, or me needing to siht in the next half an hour. They all have the same probability, and all have the exact same long term return.
Which got me thinking. Maybe more later.
Again, this is NOT Martingale that I am using, Iwon't repeat myself again.
BJT, your posts may mean a lot to you but when I produce profit through my ways of betting then that is all that matters, for you to slate something that has not yet been proven (Unless you can show me) then I shall continue with the challenge on what I consider the best regular winning bet in sport ... all I can say is, we ashall see what happens
but.....
so you see if your betting system helps or hinders ?
No amount of staking complexity will solve this problem.
Whether any particular sequence of bets makes money is irrelevant, but that takes us into the realm of probability, a subject you appear not to be familiar with.
Bet big. These things don't last.
And as I have pointed out, the amount you bet has zero effect on the probability of you winning over any series of bets. Although it may affect whether you actually win or not, but that is purely due to chance.
BF does have a mode of first dismissal market and I'll take a look.
Betting big is not an option ... and I shall not be using BF for next dismissal as it has already been pointed out by yourself liquidity is always an issue
Lets just see how this goes with what I have started, I won't be on the comp all that often but when I am I will place any bets I can on this one market ..
i remeber someone saying.... dog meeting wimbledon...stop at a bet winner 2nd favs done the card. Then listed the stakes.
Jan 27, 2015 -- 10:32PM, Schalke 04 wrote:
I am not backing only between 3 and 7 or 8, I will simply back any wickets while I am in the house and able to get on the computer, so it's completely random selections unless I get time to watch a fuull match ... but, as for th prices teh bookies make CAUGHT, I think average odds of 1/2 is a give away .. I am well aware of probability, the reason why I have chosen to take advantage of this market
Schalke 04 • January 28, 2015 12:07 AM GMT
Cricket dismissal odds have been the same for the last 13 years ... BUT, the only way I have ever seen making a profit on this market possible is to do a staking plan based on what I am doing now, it is no use just lumping the odd one, or playing level stakes on this market .. I have in my 13 years watching cricket and doing bets on dismissal never seen any long running negative sequenses. there is always caught wickets in every match ... only problem is cricket is not and all day everyday sport and it is very time consuming to sit and bet a match all the time ..
Betting big is not an option ... and I shall not be using BF for next dismissal as it has already been pointed out by yourself liquidity is always an issue
Lets just see how this goes with what I have started, I won't be on the comp all that often but when I am I will place any bets I can on this one market ..
The sad thing is, you have no idea how much you contradict yourself. You can state you have been doing this for 13 years all you like, nobody on here agrees with you, and for good reason. There is no mathematical benefit in what you are doing.
Before going into the probability of it all, which you claim to know, but clearly have no idea, let me ask you a simple question.
If you claim to be a profitable punter over the last 13 years, with many winning threads, why are you not still using those strategies? Is all good having a winning thread, but you are doing is guaranteeing winning threads, because your probability of short term success, is very high. The problem though, is the probability of long term success is nil.
The longer you run it, the closer you are to busting your bank. Doesn't mean it won't happen straight away, but expectation is: (Assuming 100% expected wins vs expected win)
100 bets, you .946% chance of an 8 loss sequence.
200 bets, 1.948%
500 bets, 4.894%
1000 bets, 9.608%
2000 bets, 18.348%
5000 bets, 39.815%
10000 bets, 63.801%
The longer you run it, the more chance you have of going bust. So while you are locking in profits, and profits, and profits, when you hit the losing run, which you will do if you run it long enough, it will wipe out all profits, to the point where the guy running flat stakes was already at.
It is simple mathematics.
You have nearly a 1% chance of going bust after 100 bets. If you lay every 100.00 shot you can find, is it a winning strategy if you win the first 99 sequences? That is essentially what you are saying here.
If you are running a couple of % below, ie averaging 1.50, and running strike rate of 65%, then your %s change quite a bit. ie, expected longest losing sequence at 66.667% hits 8 in a row at 6565 bets. At 65%, that figure is 4441, and at 64% it is 3545 bets.
I notice you suggested keeping track of level stakes. Once again, I don't think you understand. The only meaningful comparison, would be expected wins / total wins.
Either way, if you aren't going to take peoples advice on here that you are heading for yet another big thud, then I look forward to the ensuing train wreck, as I suspect is everybody else that will monitor. One can only hope you really do think you are onto the holy grail, and it will be that much more entertaining because you will continue to run it.
Don't disappoint your fans.
Mind you, this did give me an idea.
He doesn't even understand the flaw in this gem from him:
I will simply back any wickets while I am in the house and able to get on the computer, so it's completely random selections unless I get time to watch a fuull match ......
I have in my 13 years watching cricket and doing bets on dismissal never seen any long running negative sequenses. there is always caught wickets in every match ...
Care to share? Might be able to give you some input, or may trigger something creative for myself?
2 problems; how to estimate the probability of a particular type of dismissal, then how to bet at good odds, the real problem. BF's first dismissal on the BBL final is currently $29 traded both markets. I've traded FDs in the past and it might go $500.
But the market could be biased by the overall likelyhood of catches. So I'll lay catch.
1.46 few dollars traded on the Sixers first, and the Scorchers same price actually.
Didn't discriminate on when those wickets were taken, was just a total, but 1.46 looks a pretty decent lay price and a terrible price for old mate to be backing at lol...
A J Strauss* st †Adnan Akmal b Abdur Rehman 56 150 5 0 37.33
A N Cook c †Adnan Akmal b Umar Gul 1 5 0 0 20.00
I J L Trott lbw b Umar Gul 2 10 0 0 20.00
K P Pietersen lbw b Abdur Rehman 32 44 4 0 72.73
I R Bell st †Adnan Akmal b Saeed Ajmal 5 28 0 0 17.86
E J G Morgan lbw b Abdur Rehman 10 14 0 1 71.43
M J Prior† b Abdur Rehman 6 19 0 0 31.58
J M Anderson b Abdur Rehman 4 22 0 0 18.18
S C J Broad lbw b Saeed Ajmal 4 19 0 0 21.05
G P Swann c Abdur Rehman b Saeed Ajmal 16 18 3 0 88.89
M S Panesar not out 0 1 0 0 0.00
Extras (b 1, lb 4) 5
Total All Out (55.0 overs @ 2.56 rpo) 141
Fall of Wickets
1-5 (Cook) 2-7 (Trott) 3-64 (Pietersen) 4-75 (Bell)
5-88 (Morgan) 6-98 (Prior) 7-106 (Anderson) 8-121 (Broad)
9-133 (Strauss) 10-141 (Swann)
A J Strauss* lbw b Herath 26 40 2 0 65.00
A N Cook lbw b Lakmal 0 5 0 0 0.00
I J L Trott st †H A P Jayawardene b Herath 12 24 3 0 50.00
K P Pietersen b Welegedara 3 18 0 0 16.67
I R Bell b Herath 52 87 8 1 59.77
M J Prior† lbw b Herath 7 7 1 0 100.00
S R Patel lbw b Herath 2 21 0 0 9.52
S C J Broad lbw b Herath 28 15 5 1 186.67
G P Swann c Dilshan b Randiv 24 26 6 0 92.31
J M Anderson not out 23 26 4 0 88.46
M S Panesar lbw b Randiv 13 11 2 0 118.18
Extras (lb 2, w 1) 3
Total All Out (46.4 overs @ 4.14 rpo) 193
Fall of Wickets
1-0 (Cook) 2-40 (Trott) 3-43 (Strauss) 4-65 (Pietersen)
5-72 (Prior) 6-92 (Patel) 7-122 (Broad) 8-157 (Swann)
9-157 (Bell) 10-193 (Panesar)
Lucky there, Swann 8th wicket... lol
Jan 28, 2015 -- 8:57AM, Schalke 04 wrote:
next bet: 3rd Sydney Sixers Wicket = CAUGHT v Perth Scorchers @ 4/7 - £3 to win £1.71
Wouldn't it be easier just to arb? If you are getting 1.57 caught, B365 has 3.00 not caught.... Make 6 months legitimate system money in 1 go.... 
Tamim Iqbal b Mohammad Hafeez 64 89 6 1 71.91
Nazimuddin c Umar Gul b Aizaz Cheema 30 33 4 1 90.91
Jahurul Islam b Shahid Afridi 23 31 3 0 74.19
Mushfiqur Rahim*† b Shahid Afridi 3 5 0 0 60.00
Shakib Al Hasan b Umar Gul 64 66 4 0 96.97
Mohammad Mahmudullah lbw b Mohammad Hafeez 0 1 0 0 0.00
Nasir Hossain b Umar Gul 47 49 3 1 95.92
Abdur Razzak b Saeed Ajmal 1 3 0 0 33.33
Mashrafe Bin Mortaza b Saeed Ajmal 1 3 0 0 33.33
Shafiul Islam lbw b Umar Gul 1 2 0 0 50.00
Shahadat Hossain not out 0 7 0 0 0.00
Extras (lb 2, w 5) 7
Total All Out (48.1 overs @ 5.00 rpo) 241
Fall of Wickets
1-45 (Nazimuddin) 2-90 (Jahurul Islam) 3-100 (Mushfiqur Rahim) 4-135 (Tamim Iqbal)
5-135 (Mohammad Mahmudullah) 6-224 (Nasir Hossain) 7-228 (Abdur Razzak) 8-230 (Mashrafe Bin Mortaza)
9-235 (Shafiul Islam) 10-241 (Shakib Al Hasan)
First wicket caught, next 9 obviously not caught. Goodbye money.....
next 4 wickets...caught. already highlights the danger tho.
what was next bet? 90/45 1st perth wicket. so basically risked 90 quid to bank 1.70.
not for me this! good luck tho.
I once took on a punter that had been barred from a rival bookie for placing stop-at-a-winner bets. I took him on as couldn't see how he could possibly win as he had no obvious advantage from the selections he was making (in fact he showed to me, by the number of selections he was making that he was a guesser) with a view to restricting him (or hedging) once he was chasing with bets to take out over £3k. It's much easier to chase your way out of trouble these days when punters can bet on bank cards as it means they don't have to walk into betting shops with a sackful of money and it makes them braver. Anyway, I knocked him out after just two or three weeks, with him never having the balls (or funds) to lay out to win £3k.
A lovely punter and was amazed that the traders of the other firm had given him the boot - a daft call on their behalf.
The link you followed may be broken, or the page may have been removed.
Oh oh... Facebook page gone. Maybe he already turned his 100 into the million predicted? Pretty quick, good job...
And caught kept winning. I have 10 consecutive wins in this market since the start of the WC.
Prices are getting tighter now and I'll continue with it to see if that brings in more trades.
I feel a bit sorry for S04, but he got good advice on this thread and gave no indication he took any notice. Some people you can't help.
Is it defined as "a method by which money can be extracted from inept gamblers using basic mathematics"
