Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Schalke 04
24 Jan 15 23:23
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Apr 05
| Topic/replies: 23,227 | Blogger: Schalke 04's blog
After 13 years of betting, betting on a range of sports, Tennis, Football, Snooker, Darts, American Football etc etc I believe CRICKET holds the key to producing regular winners for the system I use in betting. So, on the thread I shall be doing what I believe is the greatest bet there is in sport. I shall follow the rules of the system I have been using for the last 2 years.

I hope you enjoy following the thread and seeing how profitable this system can be.

I shall be using 8 banks of bets, I shall be increasing bets as time goes on and withdrawing money along the way. 8 losing bets in a row is the ONLY way this system can lose. Enjoy

©Schalke 04©
Pause Switch to Standard View Cricket Betting
Show More
Loading...
Report Schalke 04 January 24, 2015 11:32 PM GMT
Start - £443.40

1 - £0.10 / 2 - £0.30 / 3 - £1 / 4 - £3 / 5 - £9 / 6 - £30 / 7 - £100 8 - £300

Bank Increases every time minimum of £43.43 has been won + £10 banked (1)1p (2)3p (3)9p (4)30p (5)£1 (6)£3 (7)£9 (8)£30

Current Winnings for stake increase - £0

Money withdrawn from system - £0

Total Stakes - £0 / Total Winnings - £0

©Schalke 04©
Report pxb January 24, 2015 11:52 PM GMT
What's the system?

In general terms, if you don't want to go into specifics.
Report Schalke 04 January 24, 2015 11:59 PM GMT

Jan 24, 2015 -- 11:52PM, pxb wrote:


What's the system?In general terms, if you don't want to go into specifics.


You shall see once I place bets, pretty straight forward ...

Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 12:00 AM GMT

Jan 24, 2015 -- 11:56PM, King of Dubai wrote:


Schalke 04, I read elsewhere that you post as "Dimitrios - The master of Greek bets"  Is that true??


No, that is not true .. I only ever post as Schalke 04

Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 12:01 AM GMT
next bet: 3rd New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 8/15 - £0.10 to win £0.05
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 12:07 AM GMT
King of Dubai, just curious, where did you hear that and why is it rumoured that I post under another name?
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 12:28 AM GMT
Result: RUN OUT :( ©
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 12:29 AM GMT
next bet: 4th New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 1/2 - £0.30 to win £0.15
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 12:30 AM GMT

Jan 25, 2015 -- 12:18AM, King of Dubai wrote:


Not a rumour mate, somebody admitted it on another forum.The "Dimitrios" thing used to crack me up many years ago, just wondered if it was you.


Well, it's not me mate, I remember Dimitrios ... has he left the forum?

Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 1:18 AM GMT
Start - £443.40

1 - £0.10 / 2 - £0.30 / 3 - £1 / 4 - £3 / 5 - £9 / 6 - £30 / 7 - £100 8 - £300

Bank Increases every time minimum of £43.43 has been won + £10 banked (1)1p (2)3p (3)9p (4)30p (5)£1 (6)£3 (7)£9 (8)£30

1. 3rd New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 8/15 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - lost
2. 4th New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 1/2 - £0.30 to win £0.15 - WON

Current Winnings for stake increase - £0.05

Money withdrawn from system - £0

Total Stakes - £0.40 / Total Winnings - £0.05

©Schalke 04©
Report BJT January 25, 2015 1:20 AM GMT
I don't understand.  You have been using this successful system for over 2 years, and to prove it, you bet 10 pence? 

WTF are you wasting everybody's time posting?
Report pxb January 25, 2015 3:06 AM GMT
Looks like staking system to me.

A staking systems without a winning betting system is pointless.

And if you have a winning betting system, you are much better off trading than using a staking system because of commisions.
Report lanza January 25, 2015 3:10 AM GMT
3rd bet would have been caught, £1 quid to 0.50.
4th  £3 quid to 1.75
5th  £10 to £5
6th £35 to £17.50

seems like our our old friend marty?? 

did something like this when i first started on the runs on the spreads.  was going great until rob key scored 200.  lol.  (i was going under each time)  lol.
Report BJT January 25, 2015 4:58 AM GMT
CoolCoolCool
Report BJT January 25, 2015 5:28 AM GMT
Degenerates like this are the reason bookies make money.  LaughLaughLaugh
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 7:16 AM GMT

Jan 25, 2015 -- 1:20AM, BJT wrote:


I don't understand.  You have been using this successful system for over 2 years, and to prove it, you bet 10 pence?  WTF are you wasting everybody's time posting?


It's the only way it works, remember, it's not about what an individual bet makes, it's about what it makes overall. I am only 2 bets in and you slate it ... give it time

Report BJT January 25, 2015 7:50 AM GMT
Like 8 months when it goes bust?
Report BJT January 25, 2015 7:52 AM GMT
Simple fact is, it doesn't make money, because it is ridiculous, stupid, and moronic.
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 9:16 AM GMT
next bet: 6th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourner Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 9:28 AM GMT
Start - £443.40

1 - £0.10 / 2 - £0.30 / 3 - £1 / 4 - £3 / 5 - £9 / 6 - £30 / 7 - £100 8 - £300

Bank Increases every time minimum of £43.43 has been won + £10 banked (1)1p (2)3p (3)9p (4)30p (5)£1 (6)£3 (7)£9 (8)£30

1. 3rd New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 8/15 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - lost
2. 4th New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 1/2 - £0.30 to win £0.15 - WON
3. 6th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - WON

Current Winnings for stake increase - £0.05

Money withdrawn from system - £0.05

Total Stakes - £0.50 / Total Winnings - £0.10

©Schalke 04©
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 9:28 AM GMT
next bet: 7th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 9:33 AM GMT
Start - £443.40

1 - £0.10 / 2 - £0.30 / 3 - £1 / 4 - £3 / 5 - £9 / 6 - £30 / 7 - £100 8 - £300

Bank Increases every time minimum of £43.43 has been won + £10 banked (1)1p (2)3p (3)9p (4)30p (5)£1 (6)£3 (7)£9 (8)£30

1. 3rd New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 8/15 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - lost
2. 4th New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 1/2 - £0.30 to win £0.15 - WON
3. 6th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - WON
4. 7th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - WON

Current Winnings for stake increase - £0.10

Money withdrawn from system - £0.05

Total Stakes - £0.60 / Total Winnings - £0.15

©Schalke 04©
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 9:33 AM GMT
next bet: 8th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 4/7 - £0.10 to win £0.06
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 9:41 AM GMT
Start - £443.40

1 - £0.10 / 2 - £0.30 / 3 - £1 / 4 - £3 / 5 - £9 / 6 - £30 / 7 - £100 8 - £300

Bank Increases every time minimum of £43.43 has been won + £10 banked (1)1p (2)3p (3)9p (4)30p (5)£1 (6)£3 (7)£9 (8)£30

1. 3rd New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 8/15 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - lost
2. 4th New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 1/2 - £0.30 to win £0.15 - WON
3. 6th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - WON
4. 7th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - WON
5. 8th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 4/7 - £0.10 to win £0.06 - VOID

Current Winnings for stake increase - £0.10

Money withdrawn from system - £0.05

Total Stakes - £0.70 / Total Winnings - £0.15

©Schalke 04©
Report pxb January 25, 2015 9:48 AM GMT
Schalke, I have a serious question.

Why do you think a German, which I assume you are, can compete in a sport exclusive to the english speaking world and the subcontinent, and notorious for it's complexity?
Report BJT January 25, 2015 10:43 AM GMT
He doesn't, he is simply a degenerate gambler that thinks by backing odds on shots, and using martingale that he will end up rich.  He has a facebook page suggesting he is about to turn 130 dollars into a million, yet he is here a decade after joining Betfair, and still using 10 pence stakes......
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 11:27 AM GMT
next bet: 7th South Africa Wicket = CAUGHT v West Indies @ 4/7 - £0.10 to win £0.05
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 11:32 AM GMT

Jan 25, 2015 -- 10:43AM, BJT wrote:


He doesn't, he is simply a degenerate gambler that thinks by backing odds on shots, and using martingale that he will end up rich.

Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 11:35 AM GMT
I have never used Martingale for your information

Why does a language barrier have to hinder a Germans ability to play cricket? I am pretty sure a german player would learn to communiate with fellow players as they would in any sport.

PS, I am not German
Report BJT January 25, 2015 11:37 AM GMT

Jan 25, 2015 -- 11:35AM, Schalke 04 wrote:


I have never used Martingale for your informationWhy does a language barrier have to hinder a Germans ability to play cricket? I am pretty sure a german player would learn to communiate with fellow players as they would in any sport.PS, I am not German


lol.  What do you think you are using right now?  Not an even money Martingale, but exactly the same thing.....

Have you not learnt anything in your time here?



Let me put it to you this way.  How much did your last thread make you?  Went from February to October right, doing exactly the same thing as this, except of course to 7 bets, now you have added an extra.  Being such a successful system over the last 2 years, how much has it made you?

Report BJT January 25, 2015 11:39 AM GMT
Yeah, Phil Waters doesn't sound very German to me.....  ConfusedConfused
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 11:44 AM GMT
Look up Martingale and you will see it is NOT called Martingale, it is not the same thing
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 11:48 AM GMT
Who is Phil Waters?

£2,600 is the answer to your question, I only do this system as a hobby and the last thread made a small loss as it quite clearly showed.
Report BJT January 25, 2015 12:05 PM GMT
lol
It went for 8 months, and you put on 400 less than the system required.  It was up 1400 apparantly when you lost the whole show, with the stakes adding up to 1852.  Puts you around 500 down for 8 months, on a system you claim will take you from 130 to a million.


Who is Phil Waters?

The guy that claims:

18th August 2006, 10:16 AM #10
Phil Waters
Guest
I'm Schalke04, dimitrios, Mr_Winner, Stax, Hardy Eustace to name but a few.

I post in the soccer forum mainly.


that he is on the Betfair forum under those names........



As for your 2600, I call bullsiht.  If it was a winning system, you wouldn't be using 10 pence stakes, and it certainly wouldn't be a hobby if you seriously believe you will make a million out of it.

Ridiculous thread, ridiculous poster.

Not sure how much more I will bother biting, but you are clearly taking the piss, and have a SERIOUS amount of time to keep it up....
Report freddiewilliams January 25, 2015 12:58 PM GMT
did u go bust again on facebook schalk
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 3:27 PM GMT
next bet: 8th West Indies Wicket = CAUGHT v South Africa @ 8/15 - £0.30 to win £0.16
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 3:28 PM GMT

Jan 25, 2015 -- 12:05PM, BJT wrote:


lolIt went for 8 months, and you put on 400 less than the system required.  It was up 1400 apparantly when you lost the whole show, with the stakes adding up to 1852.  Puts you around 500 down for 8 months, on a system you claim will take you from 130 to a million.Who is Phil Waters?The guy that claims:18th August 2006, 10:16 AM #10Phil WatersGuestI'm Schalke04, dimitrios, Mr_Winner, Stax, Hardy Eustace to name but a few.I post in the soccer forum mainly.that he is on the Betfair forum under those names........As for your 2600, I call bullsiht.  If it was a winning system, you wouldn't be using 10 pence stakes, and it certainly wouldn't be a hobby if you seriously believe you will make a million out of it.Ridiculous thread, ridiculous poster.Not sure how much more I will bother biting, but you are clearly taking the piss, and have a SERIOUS amount of time to keep it up....


Go away and play with your firetruck

Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 3:32 PM GMT
Start - £443.40

1 - £0.10 / 2 - £0.30 / 3 - £1 / 4 - £3 / 5 - £9 / 6 - £30 / 7 - £100 8 - £300

Bank Increases every time minimum of £43.43 has been won + £10 banked (1)1p (2)3p (3)9p (4)30p (5)£1 (6)£3 (7)£9 (8)£30

1. 3rd New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 8/15 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - lost
2. 4th New Zealand Wicket = CAUGHT v Sri Lanka @ 1/2 - £0.30 to win £0.15 - WON
3. 6th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - WON
4. 7th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 1/2 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - WON
5. 8th Perth Scorchers Wicket = CAUGHT v Melbourne Stars @ 4/7 - £0.10 to win £0.06 - VOID
6. 7th South Africa Wicket = CAUGHT v West Indies @ 4/7 - £0.10 to win £0.05 - lost
7. 8th West Indies Wicket = CAUGHT v South Africa @ 8/15 - £0.30 to win £0.16 - WON

Current Winnings for stake increase - £0.10

Money withdrawn from system - £0.11

Total Stakes - £1.10 / Total Winnings - £0.21

©Schalke 04©
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 3:33 PM GMT
next bet: 9th West Indies Wicket = CAUGHT v South Africa @ 4/7 - £0.10 to win £0.06
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 3:53 PM GMT
Result: Run Out
Report pxb January 25, 2015 8:29 PM GMT
Yep. Martingale. Which is purely a staking system, and has exactly ZERO effect on the probability of you winning over any timescale.

That you may win over x bets, is pure random chance, assuming you don't have a winning betting system, and it appears you don't.

That advice is actually worth a lot of money, but I expect you will dismiss it out of hand.
Report Charkitz January 25, 2015 10:28 PM GMT
I used the martingale system once at Crown Casino, about 15 years ago. Went in there with my brother, told him I was going to do double or nothing on roulette, BLACK. Was virtually impossible to lose I said. So 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256 and 512 dollar stakes. All up just over a grand. Was only there for about half an hour, then it happened... RED, RED, RED, RED, RED, RED, RED, RED, RED... My brother implored me not to do the 10th spin, it was a lot of money for us at the time. But the thought of pulling out and then have it landing on black was too much for me, so I went through with it. To our relief it landed on BLACK!!

Despite getting out of it, I learnt my lesson, never again!! Was a mug thing to do! Shalke it doesn't work. As the others have pointed out it is useless unless you have some sort of edge or effective betting system, otherwise it's just random. It's ok if you want to gamble but useless if you actually want to make money.
Report Schalke 04 January 25, 2015 11:24 PM GMT
Please guys, I think you know it's NOT Martingale I am using in this thread, Martingale is ONLY what Charkitz described ... as you can see I am not betting even money shots, therefor the system Iam using is referred to as "Super" Martingale ...

I believe Cricket holds the answer to making "Super"Martingale a success ... as with a lot of "challenges" "Systems" I have done on the forum this is a first attempt.I have done manymanymany bets on this market over the last 13 years and with my experience on it I had to go with this ... instead of saying this and thatabout it, why don't you all justsee how it pans out. Nobody can say it will do well or fail, that is the purpose of trying it out ...
Report BJT January 26, 2015 3:09 AM GMT
Of course we can.  It is called mathematical theory, or probability.  The longer you run it, the more chance of crashing with a big thud.  As you found out with your last thread, 8 months in, nearly 3,000 posts, and you lost the lot plus more in a series of 7 bets out of thousands.

It is simply a matter of time.

Martingale doesn't work, and is a road to the poor house.  So you think you put that system on steroids and it will all of a sudden work?  Umm no, it is exactly the same chance of success.

This is one of those ones where you don't need to run it for thousands of bets, because probablity tells you straight out, that it will not work.  As you have proven, over and over again.  To think that cricket is the answer is just another degenerate gambler trait. 

Will give you the tip.  A 1.50 shot, is 1.50 whether it being a catch in cricket, Australia to beat England, or me needing to siht in the next half an hour.  They all have the same probability, and all have the exact same long term return.
Report BJT January 26, 2015 3:12 AM GMT
Keep going though if you like.  I am sure you will draw a lot of attention by people waiting for that moment where you crash and burn.  As long as you keep betting, it will happen, there is nothing surer.
Report pxb January 26, 2015 4:58 AM GMT
Martingale applies to independant events, coin tosses etc, which generally don't occur in sports.

Which got me thinking. Maybe more later.
Report Schalke 04 January 26, 2015 2:21 PM GMT
and thats why I make profit on betting, ok the odd thread makes losses but its never a big loss, and plenty threadshave made me money ..

Again, this is NOT Martingale that I am using, Iwon't repeat   myself again.

BJT, your posts may mean a lot to you but when I produce profit through my ways of betting then that is all that matters, for you to slate something that has not yet been proven (Unless you can show me) then I shall continue with the challenge on what I consider the best regular winning bet in sport ... all I can say is, we ashall see what happens
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- January 26, 2015 6:49 PM GMT
good luck, i think they are correct and your system flawed

but.....
Report Schalke 04 January 26, 2015 7:40 PM GMT
We shall see, thats the whole point of trying it and NOT using huge amounts of cash. I have for 13 years wanted to try this and here we are ... lets see how good a market it is and what I think it is.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- January 27, 2015 4:24 PM GMT
Is it worth carrying a running total for bets to level stakes
so you see if your betting system helps or hinders ?
Report Schalke 04 January 27, 2015 5:10 PM GMT
^^ yeah, could do that mate ...
Report Schalke 04 January 27, 2015 5:11 PM GMT
I will add a little level stakes amount to my table and see how it goes, I shal ljust call it £1 per bet to be simple
Report pxb January 27, 2015 10:24 PM GMT
The 'system' appears to be, back caught for the next wicket between wickets 3 and 7 or 8. It might have some merit, if there were liquid BF markets for next wicket to fall. There isn't, and presumably bookies know the probability of middle order dismissals and price odds appropriately in their favour.

No amount of staking complexity will solve this problem.

Whether any particular sequence of bets makes money is irrelevant, but that takes us into the realm of probability, a subject you appear not to be familiar with.
Report Schalke 04 January 27, 2015 10:32 PM GMT
I am not backing only between 3 and 7 or 8, I will simply back any wickets while I am in the house and able to get on the computer, so it's completely random selections unless I get time to watch a fuull match ... but, as for th prices teh bookies make CAUGHT, I think average odds of 1/2 is a give away .. I am well aware of probability, the reason why I have chosen to take advantage of this market
Report pxb January 27, 2015 11:26 PM GMT
Let's say for the sake of argument, you have discovered that bookies misprice the odds of caught, then you are wasting your time with 10p bets.

Bet big. These things don't last.

And as I have pointed out, the amount you bet has zero effect on the probability of you winning over any series of bets. Although it may affect whether you actually win or not, but that is purely due to chance.

BF does have a mode of first dismissal market and I'll take a look.
Report Schalke 04 January 28, 2015 12:07 AM GMT
Cricket dismissal odds have been the same for the last 13 years ... BUT, the only way I have ever seen making a profit on this market possible is to do a staking plan based on what I am doing now, it is no use just lumping the odd one, or playing level stakes on this market .. I have in my 13 years watching cricket and doing bets on dismissal never seen any long running negative sequenses. there is always caught wickets in every match ... only problem is cricket is not and all day everyday sport and it is very time consuming to sit and bet a match all the time ..

Betting big is not an option ... and I shall not be using BF for next dismissal as it has already been pointed out by yourself liquidity is always an issue

Lets just see how this goes with what I have started, I won't be on the comp all that often but when I am I will place any bets I can on this one market ..
Report lanza January 28, 2015 1:17 AM GMT
couldnt you do a stop at a winner bet?  we use to take these manually when i worked for 365.

i remeber someone saying.... dog meeting wimbledon...stop at a bet winner 2nd favs done the card.  Then listed the stakes.
Report lanza January 28, 2015 1:18 AM GMT
sorry...forget that. You dont know the odds they will use.
Report Schalke 04 January 28, 2015 1:39 AM GMT
next bet: 1st Wicket = CAUGHT - Perth Scorchers c Sydney Sixers @ 1/2 - £0.30 to win £0.15
Report BJT January 28, 2015 6:41 AM GMT

Jan 27, 2015 -- 10:32PM, Schalke 04 wrote:


I am not backing only between 3 and 7 or 8, I will simply back any wickets while I am in the house and able to get on the computer, so it's completely random selections unless I get time to watch a fuull match ... but, as for th prices teh bookies make CAUGHT, I think average odds of 1/2 is a give away .. I am well aware of probability, the reason why I have chosen to take advantage of this market


Schalke 04 • January 28, 2015 12:07 AM GMT
Cricket dismissal odds have been the same for the last 13 years ... BUT, the only way I have ever seen making a profit on this market possible is to do a staking plan based on what I am doing now, it is no use just lumping the odd one, or playing level stakes on this market .. I have in my 13 years watching cricket and doing bets on dismissal never seen any long running negative sequenses. there is always caught wickets in every match ... only problem is cricket is not and all day everyday sport and it is very time consuming to sit and bet a match all the time ..

Betting big is not an option ... and I shall not be using BF for next dismissal as it has already been pointed out by yourself liquidity is always an issue

Lets just see how this goes with what I have started, I won't be on the comp all that often but when I am I will place any bets I can on this one market ..



The sad thing is, you have no idea how much you contradict yourself.  You can state you have been doing this for 13 years all you like, nobody on here agrees with you, and for good reason. There is no mathematical benefit in what you are doing.

Before going into the probability of it all, which you claim to know, but clearly have no idea, let me ask you a simple question.

If you claim to be a profitable punter over the last 13 years, with many winning threads, why are you not still using those strategies?  Is all good having a winning thread, but you are doing is guaranteeing winning threads, because your probability of short term success, is very high.  The problem though, is the probability of long term success is nil.


The longer you run it, the closer you are to busting your bank.  Doesn't mean it won't happen straight away, but expectation is: (Assuming 100% expected wins vs expected win)
100 bets, you .946% chance of an 8 loss sequence.
200 bets, 1.948%
500 bets, 4.894%
1000 bets, 9.608%
2000 bets, 18.348%
5000 bets, 39.815%
10000 bets, 63.801%


The longer you run it, the more chance you have of going bust.  So while you are locking in profits, and profits, and profits, when you hit the losing run, which you will do if you run it long enough, it will wipe out all profits, to the point where the guy running flat stakes was already at.

It is simple mathematics.

You have nearly a 1% chance of going bust after 100 bets.  If you lay every 100.00 shot you can find, is it a winning strategy if you win the first 99 sequences?  That is essentially what you are saying here.


If you are running a couple of % below, ie averaging 1.50, and running strike rate of 65%, then your %s change quite a bit.  ie, expected longest losing sequence at 66.667% hits 8 in a row at 6565 bets.  At 65%, that figure is 4441, and at 64% it is 3545 bets.


I notice you suggested keeping track of level stakes.  Once again, I don't think you understand.  The only meaningful comparison, would be expected wins / total wins.

Either way, if you aren't going to take peoples advice on here that you are heading for yet another big thud, then I look forward to the ensuing train wreck, as I suspect is everybody else that will monitor.  One can only hope you really do think you are onto the holy grail, and it will be that much more entertaining because you will continue to run it. 
Don't disappoint your fans.

Report pxb January 28, 2015 6:54 AM GMT
BJT. based on bet365's pricing of the toss, I calculated the odds of winning after 20 next wicket bets as 1.4%. Which of course decreases with more bets.

Mind you, this did give me an idea.
Report BJT January 28, 2015 7:06 AM GMT
Yeah, well I haven't looked at the markets.  Wouldn't have expected it to be too user friendly though.  Realistically speaking, given B365 will block anybody close to returning 95% from betting, or at least getting anything above them risking you 10 bucks, there really is no risk of him being anything close to a winning punter.

He doesn't even understand the flaw in this gem from him:
I will simply back any wickets while I am in the house and able to get on the computer, so it's completely random selections unless I get time to watch a fuull match ......
I have in my 13 years watching cricket and doing bets on dismissal never seen any long running negative sequenses. there is always caught wickets in every match ...

LaughLaugh


Care to share?  Might be able to give you some input, or may trigger something creative for myself?Blush
Report pxb January 28, 2015 7:50 AM GMT
Not really a big insight, but Schalke despite all his whatevers, might be on to something with the mispricing of dismissals.

2 problems; how to estimate the probability of a particular type of dismissal, then how to bet at good odds, the real problem. BF's first dismissal on the BBL final is currently $29 traded both markets. I've traded FDs in the past and it might go $500.

But the market could be biased by the overall likelyhood of catches. So I'll lay catch.
Report BJT January 28, 2015 8:41 AM GMT
Just did the 2014/15 ODI's, as in all of them that were completed, except about 2 series with bottom of the minnows, and out of 629 wickets, 397 of them were caught.  63.12%, or 1.5843 break even before fees.

1.46 few dollars traded on the Sixers first, and the Scorchers same price actually.

Didn't discriminate on when those wickets were taken, was just a total, but 1.46 looks a pretty decent lay price and a terrible price for old mate to be backing at lol...
Report Schalke 04 January 28, 2015 8:51 AM GMT
next bet: 2nd Sydney Sixers Wicket = CAUGHT v Perth Scorchers @ 4/7 - £1 to win £0.57
Report Schalke 04 January 28, 2015 8:55 AM GMT
Result: Bowled
Report Schalke 04 January 28, 2015 8:57 AM GMT
next bet: 3rd Sydney Sixers Wicket = CAUGHT v Perth Scorchers @ 4/7 - £3 to win £1.71
Report BJT January 28, 2015 8:59 AM GMT
England 1st Innings    R    BF    4s    6s    SR    
A J Strauss*    st †Adnan Akmal b Abdur Rehman    56     150     5     0    37.33    
A N Cook    c †Adnan Akmal b Umar Gul    1     5     0     0    20.00    
I J L Trott    lbw b Umar Gul    2     10     0     0    20.00    
K P Pietersen    lbw b Abdur Rehman    32     44     4     0    72.73    
I R Bell    st †Adnan Akmal b Saeed Ajmal    5     28     0     0    17.86    
E J G Morgan    lbw b Abdur Rehman    10     14     0     1    71.43    
M J Prior†    b Abdur Rehman    6     19     0     0    31.58    
J M Anderson    b Abdur Rehman    4     22     0     0    18.18    
S C J Broad    lbw b Saeed Ajmal    4     19     0     0    21.05    
G P Swann    c Abdur Rehman b Saeed Ajmal    16     18     3     0    88.89    
M S Panesar    not out    0     1     0     0    0.00    
Extras    (b 1, lb 4)    5    
Total    All Out   (55.0 overs @ 2.56 rpo)    141    

Fall of Wickets   
1-5 (Cook)       2-7 (Trott)       3-64 (Pietersen)       4-75 (Bell)   
5-88 (Morgan)       6-98 (Prior)       7-106 (Anderson)       8-121 (Broad)   
9-133 (Strauss)       10-141 (Swann)
Report BJT January 28, 2015 9:00 AM GMT
Ouch.  Guess you didn't watch that game...
Report BJT January 28, 2015 9:02 AM GMT
England 1st Innings    R    BF    4s    6s    SR    
A J Strauss*    lbw b Herath    26     40     2     0    65.00    
A N Cook    lbw b Lakmal    0     5     0     0    0.00    
I J L Trott    st †H A P Jayawardene b Herath    12     24     3     0    50.00    
K P Pietersen    b Welegedara    3     18     0     0    16.67    
I R Bell    b Herath    52     87     8     1    59.77    
M J Prior†    lbw b Herath    7     7     1     0    100.00    
S R Patel    lbw b Herath    2     21     0     0    9.52    
S C J Broad    lbw b Herath    28     15     5     1    186.67    
G P Swann    c Dilshan b Randiv    24     26     6     0    92.31    
J M Anderson    not out    23     26     4     0    88.46    
M S Panesar    lbw b Randiv    13     11     2     0    118.18    
Extras    (lb 2, w 1)    3    
Total    All Out   (46.4 overs @ 4.14 rpo)    193    

Fall of Wickets   
1-0 (Cook)       2-40 (Trott)       3-43 (Strauss)       4-65 (Pietersen)   
5-72 (Prior)       6-92 (Patel)       7-122 (Broad)       8-157 (Swann)   
9-157 (Bell)       10-193 (Panesar)   

Lucky there, Swann 8th wicket...  lol
Report BJT January 28, 2015 9:04 AM GMT

Jan 28, 2015 -- 8:57AM, Schalke 04 wrote:


next bet: 3rd Sydney Sixers Wicket = CAUGHT v Perth Scorchers @ 4/7 - £3 to win £1.71


Wouldn't it be easier just to arb?  If you are getting 1.57 caught, B365 has 3.00 not caught....    Make 6 months legitimate system money in 1 go....  ConfusedConfused

Report BJT January 28, 2015 9:14 AM GMT
Bangladesh (target 263)    R    BF    4s    6s    SR    
Tamim Iqbal    b Mohammad Hafeez    64     89     6     1    71.91    
Nazimuddin    c Umar Gul b Aizaz Cheema    30     33     4     1    90.91    
Jahurul Islam    b Shahid Afridi    23     31     3     0    74.19    
Mushfiqur Rahim*†    b Shahid Afridi    3     5     0     0    60.00    
Shakib Al Hasan    b Umar Gul    64     66     4     0    96.97    
Mohammad Mahmudullah    lbw b Mohammad Hafeez    0     1     0     0    0.00    
Nasir Hossain    b Umar Gul    47     49     3     1    95.92    
Abdur Razzak    b Saeed Ajmal    1     3     0     0    33.33    
Mashrafe Bin Mortaza    b Saeed Ajmal    1     3     0     0    33.33    
Shafiul Islam    lbw b Umar Gul    1     2     0     0    50.00    
Shahadat Hossain    not out    0     7     0     0    0.00    
Extras    (lb 2, w 5)    7    
Total    All Out   (48.1 overs @ 5.00 rpo)    241    

Fall of Wickets   
1-45 (Nazimuddin)       2-90 (Jahurul Islam)       3-100 (Mushfiqur Rahim)       4-135 (Tamim Iqbal)   
5-135 (Mohammad Mahmudullah)       6-224 (Nasir Hossain)       7-228 (Abdur Razzak)       8-230 (Mashrafe Bin Mortaza)   
9-235 (Shafiul Islam)       10-241 (Shakib Al Hasan)   



First wicket caught, next 9 obviously not caught.  Goodbye money.....
Report Schalke 04 January 28, 2015 9:16 AM GMT
Result: Bowled
Report Schalke 04 January 28, 2015 9:18 AM GMT
Fantastic bowling today from Perth ... Sixers going to have to get their finger out
Report Schalke 04 January 28, 2015 9:18 AM GMT
next bet: 4th Sydney Sixers Wicket = CAUGHT v Perth Scorchers @ 4/7 - £9 to win £5.54
Report Schalke 04 January 28, 2015 9:23 AM GMT
next bet: 5th Sydney Sixers Wicket = CAUGHT v Perth Scorchers @ 4/6 - £30 to win £20
Report lanza January 28, 2015 9:31 PM GMT
so this was down...  henriques run out.

next 4 wickets...caught.   already highlights the danger tho.
Report lanza January 28, 2015 9:35 PM GMT
so on this series you were -43.30.

what was next bet?  90/45   1st perth wicket.   so basically risked 90 quid to bank 1.70.

not for me this!  good luck tho.
Report BJT January 29, 2015 1:26 AM GMT
Didn't post any more, so still sitting on 4 losses in a row for mine...
Report pixie January 29, 2015 5:19 PM GMT
As has been pointed out, any system that relies solely on a staking plan to succeed will never work. Also a minority market like method of next batsman out is going to be unworkable (betting on the handicap draws on the rugby at 14/1 used to be profitable although unworkable in the long term, not sure if it still is).

I once took on a punter that had been barred from a rival bookie for placing stop-at-a-winner bets. I took him on as couldn't see how he could possibly win as he had no obvious advantage from the selections he was making (in fact he showed to me, by the number of selections he was making that he was a guesser) with a view to restricting him (or hedging) once he was chasing with bets to take out over £3k. It's much easier to chase your way out of trouble these days when punters can bet on bank cards as it means they don't have to walk into betting shops with a sackful of money and it makes them braver. Anyway, I knocked him out after just two or three weeks, with him never having the balls (or funds) to lay out to win £3k.

A lovely punter and was amazed that the traders of the other firm had given him the boot - a daft call on their behalf.
Report BJT February 18, 2015 4:29 PM GMT
Sorry, this page isn't available

The link you followed may be broken, or the page may have been removed.




Oh oh...  Facebook page gone.  Maybe he already turned his 100 into the million predicted?  Pretty quick, good job...  LaughLaugh
Report pxb February 18, 2015 9:01 PM GMT
This thread promoted me to put prices in the first dismissal markets. Someone kept laying 'caught' at frankly poor early prices. I thought it might be our friend S04.

And caught kept winning. I have 10 consecutive wins in this market since the start of the WC.

Prices are getting tighter now and I'll continue with it to see if that brings in more trades.

I feel a bit sorry for S04, but he got good advice on this thread and gave no indication he took any notice. Some people you can't help.
Report catfloppo March 22, 2015 1:11 PM GMT
I love the term "Super Martingale"!

Is it defined as "a method by which money can be extracted from  inept gamblers using basic mathematics"
Report hardestgame March 23, 2015 9:37 AM GMT
why are south africa favourites for tonight
Report YOMOMMA March 23, 2015 10:18 AM GMT
Ans) Because Betfair is full of tw@ts. I'd have New Zealand 1.9.
Report CLYDEBANK29 March 23, 2015 11:08 AM GMT
Doesn't Betfair just follow the Asian markets like it does in football?  South Africa 3 points shorter in the outright than before New Zealand bt the Windies.
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH March 23, 2015 7:05 PM GMT
Yes, SA were 4.0 after their first 1/4 win, i backed them on the basis that one of the next three favs would get beat, they all won easily and now 3.95 Laugh
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com