ICC Cricket World Cup 2015

I know England are a poor side, but surely people will take New Zealand more seriously now

Feb 3, 2015 -- 5:11PM, cricketnut2 wrote:

My odds for the 2015 World Cup and I have not yet looked at the market are in Alphabetical OrderAfghanistan 999/1Australia 6/4Bangladesh 499/1England 25/1India 8/1Ireland 499/1New Zealand 9/2Pakistan 14/1Scotland 499/1Sri Lanka 25/1South Africa 8/1United Arab Emirates 999/1West Indies 12/1Zimbabwe 500/1That works out to a 102% book for the teams that can win it.Now the reasoning, behind these odds.Australia the home side and the best side England are generally a poor 1 day side and have been well beaten twice by AussiesIndia are very capable, but on bouncy quicker wickets not for me New Zealand  will surprise and in my opinion have a brilliant batting odi sidePakistan  you never know what you will get from themSri Lanka another very average sideSouth Africa one of the better sides, but are also the biggest bottlers, at the endWest Indies 12/1 Capable of scoring big and low, not quite strong enoughMany will disagree with the odds, but I wouldn't want to be against the home side and each way New Zealand should reach the last 4, South Africa will get to the last 4 and lose and then its 1 other for me. Its going to take 1 month to kick out 6 sides and there may be 1 surprise side that gets through to the quarters, with Bangladesh most likely to be that side. So Basically although the World cup starts on 14th Febraury, the real action won't start until 18th March

After, just 1 week of the tournament, I think that apart from the West Indies, my odds for the World Cup, were more correct than the bookies odds.

Feb 19, 2015 -- 10:16PM, Charkitz wrote:

I know England are a poor side, but surely people will take New Zealand more seriously now

People who follow cricket have always taken the Kiwis seriously.Bat far above their weight.Hoping the Kiwis beat us at Eden Park and teach some grace and humility in the process.

I thought India were good this morning,a lot better than they've shown previously,surely serious contenders now...

After a couple of matches, for most of the sides in the World Cup, here are my revised odds.

Afghanistan 749/1
Australia 5/4
Bangladesh 249/1
England 66/1
India 6/1
Ireland 299/1
New Zealand 7/2
Pakistan 50/1
Scotland 999/1
Sri Lanka 25/1
South Africa 9/1
United Arab Emirates 999/1
West Indies 40/1
Zimbabwe 999/1
And my reason for the changes, well the Afghans, did well against Sri Lanka and can give others in that group a good game. Australia, have looked in excellent form abeit, against a weak opponent. Bangladesh could easily beat at least 1 if not 2 of the bigger teams in their group. England flattened by the 2 favourites and are regressing still further. India turned their arch enemies over and an excellent win today, against SA, so a shortening in price for them. Ireland shorten because they beat West Indies well and could well qualify, for the last 8. New Zealand 2 superb performances and 1 peformance, where they thought they had won, before even batting and played carelessly.Pakistan have shown little interest so far and their fielding, has been diabolical, hence a big price movemnet for them (Backwards) Scotland, did well against New Zealand. Sri Lanka, still not convinced by them. South Africa, today they can't handle real pressure and are bound to bottle things, somewhere along the line. United Arab Emirates, well enough said. West Indies seem to have lacked any fire whatsoever, but did beat Pakistan to recover from their early loss to Ireland and finally Zimbabwe beat the United Arab Emirates and got an unexpected point, with the washed out game with Australia, but still a massive hill to climb for them.

Sorry my last statement is untrue obviously

I'd have SA 3rd favourites after last nights match. Oz and NZ a long way ahead of the rest, maybe Kiwis slight faves. Can see Kiwis giving Aussies a flogging on Saturday but if they play in final it'll be played in Oz obviously, which would make it close to a 50/50 game.

Couldn't imagine Oz or NZ losing to India in the manner that Saffers did

I think people are under-estimating India. Their top order came good against SAF. Their confidence will be up. Look to top their group and get an easy quarter. Could well face SAF again in the semi.

India will almost certainly have to play Oz or NZ at some point in finals. What will happen then?

not sure they can meet in the semi's pxb, if ind finsih 1st/ saf 2nd???

India will almost certainly have to play Oz or NZ at some point in finals. What will happen then?

Aus will this. India's batting is the only thing that can stop them.

NZ won't do as well in Aus as they do at home. I don't expect them to make the final. Look to play their quarter and semi in Aus.

New Zealand will play the quarter final and semi final in New Zealand, regardless of what position they finish on in group stage, unless they play Australia, in which case the top team out of those two will have home ground advantage

So if NZ play India in quarter or semi final, they will play in NZ, and therefore give them a flogging

Pool A 1st and 2nd both play in Oz. Doubt NZ will be 3rd or lower in group.

As I said, even if NZ finish 3rd or fourth in their group, they will play the quarter final in NZ

And if they finish 1st or second in their group, they will still play the quarter final in NZ

Either way it doesn't matter, they will be playing quarter final in NZ if they qualify

Charlitz, just checked and you are right. They also get a semi in NZ, unless they play Aus.

nz 5.2 and ind 7.8 wonder where the value is in that!! impossible for india to win, this tournament will be won by bowlers, not batsmen

Limited overs cricket is a batsmen's game. Obviously helps if you have top class bowlers but at this stage I would rather back 7.8 than lay it. India have the 2 leading batsmen in the betting to top the scoring charts; Dhawan and Kohli. Rohit Sharma capable of hitting a double hundred against any team in the world is due a score soon.

India will most likely top the group so play a "weaker" side from Group A and more than likely make the semi final at least.

busy doing a mini reversal of nz.  Was poor effort by eng / sl to compete for 2nd place.  Looks cert now that nz / aus will now occupy a1:a2 spots and with ireland possibly making it out of qualification, you'd have to fancy both nz and aus to win both their quarters. (both at home)

If nz + aus do finish 1+2,  then i think they miss each other in the semi's which is what i was hoping wouldnt happen before. 

still loads of possible permutations on the quarter lineups with possibly only india b1, saf b2 looking set.

I thought India looked pretty good and are back in the mix. They could get Engerland, Bangla or SL in quarters and have the big match experience and mentality for a semi final and final. Not sure they will win a semi or final but if the bat first at The G or SCG they have a fighting chance. Their bowlers were tighter and The Shik was a man transformed. Rahane is 5 ft 5 ins I am told and that is all I have to say about that!

I still think NZ batters will get found out against either Aus or SA bowlers in a semi final. SA need Phillander and probably needed a good kicking. I would have thought a wounded Protea ( whatever that is ) is a dangerous animal.

Unfortunately I can only see Aus undone by themselves, a bad toss,  Duckworth Lewis, magical Indian batting or inspired SA Bowling, batting and fielding. I'd find it hard to swallow an Aussie win but they look the best team at the moment. SA can match them player for player but the doubts are always there. Maybe they should re-employ Suzie the waitress.

I watched Dhawan bat thru the summer and thought he looked good. Just that he had poor luck. And I rated Rahane from the first time I saw him bat. Sharma missed out in the last match (great runout by AB), but probably the best ODI batsman in the world.

SAF bowling just doesn't look as good as it should be. And their batting was unimpressive against India's less than world class bowling.

Tend to agree with you about NZ. They have been good, but not as good as the scores would suggest. I expect Aus to beat them handily on Saturday.

BTW, a wounded Protea just wilts, seeing as it's a flower.

haha.  very good pxb.

are you kidding me! are you kidding me!

A Protea is a flower?

FFS! Political correctness gone mad. Even Wildebeast would have been better. Now we know why SA are bottlers, they are pansies!

I wouldn't bet against NZ pxb but i don't think they are the full ticket either. Dangerous floaters! I was thinking today how a quarter final against Windies with Pollard, Bravo and Narine in their side would be!

I am losing interest at times. There should be two games every day.

Agree about the 2 matches. Especially given the time zone difference between NZ and Aus. Could have a day game in NZ and then a day/nighter in Aus, with minimal overlap.

looks like England and India in the quarterfinal,didnt think Sri Lanka would come back from that last night....

also, who works out these fixtures, some countries played 4 and others only played 2, or just playing their 3rd...

hardly fair is it

About halfway through the tournament and the market is as drunk as a monkey. Oz and NZ should be equal $3 favourites, they're streets ahead of the rest. And India better chance of winning the World Cup than Sri Lanka??? Having a laugh surely

Tomorrows Oz v Sri Lanka game is the most important match of tournament so far imo. If Oz lose then NZ big favourites to win the WC for mine, if Oz win then they should avoid playing Kiwis in NZ again and I'd fancy them to beat the Kiwis at the MCG in the final

the sa pak game is interesting tomorrow because it could very well be abandoned. 2pm start and heavy rain due approx 6pm. That could wipe out the 2nd inns and mean Ind are assured of top place

Ah yes, Pak/SA tomorrow, Oz/SL Sunday

Interesting indeed Jucel, if Saffers finish 2nd in their group then they could meet Oz in the quarters if SL beat Oz on Sunday. Lots of ifs, buts and maybes but there's a real chance that Oz, NZ and SA could all end up on the same side of the draw. If that did eventuate then it'd be a massive uphill task for Saffers or Aussies to win the cup. Would be NZ's to lose imo

So with the Saffers losing it brings the prospect of Oz, Nz and SA all being on the same side of the finals draw much closer to reality. If SL beat Oz tomorrow there should be carnage in the WC Winner market. Assuming the market is smart enough to realise the ramifications of a SL win tomorrow that is...

Given the importance of the game, Oz will be well up for it and should win comfortably, $1.30 seems to be a bit of a gift. Question is... smack the 1.30 or get greedy and wait for a better price at some stage???

Feb 20, 2015 -- 5:26AM, cricketnut2 wrote:

Feb  3, 2015 -- 10:11PM, cricketnut2 wrote:My odds for the 2015 World Cup and I have not yet looked at the market are in Alphabetical OrderAfghanistan 999/1Australia 6/4Bangladesh 499/1England 25/1India 8/1Ireland 499/1New Zealand 9/2Pakistan 14/1Scotland 499/1Sri Lanka 25/1South Africa 8/1United Arab Emirates 999/1West Indies 12/1Zimbabwe 500/1That works out to a 102% book for the teams that can win it.Now the reasoning, behind these odds.Australia the home side and the best side England are generally a poor 1 day side and have been well beaten twice by AussiesIndia are very capable, but on bouncy quicker wickets not for me New Zealand  will surprise and in my opinion have a brilliant batting odi sidePakistan  you never know what you will get from themSri Lanka another very average sideSouth Africa one of the better sides, but are also the biggest bottlers, at the endWest Indies 12/1 Capable of scoring big and low, not quite strong enoughMany will disagree with the odds, but I wouldn't want to be against the home side and each way New Zealand should reach the last 4, South Africa will get to the last 4 and lose and then its 1 other for me. Its going to take 1 month to kick out 6 sides and there may be 1 surprise side that gets through to the quarters, with Bangladesh most likely to be that side. So Basically although the World cup starts on 14th Febraury, the real action won't start until 18th MarchAfter, just 1 week of the tournament, I think that apart from the West Indies, my odds for the World Cup, were more correct than the bookies odds.

Well Sri Lanka, my odds 25/1, have proved me wrong, but I still reckon that the Aussies and New Zealand were both overpriced by the bookies, with Bangladesh, still most likely to be that Surprise side

The tournament is wide open and eventually may come down to one bowler having a great game top of the innings. Starc proving head and shoulders above the rest. If he has a bad day there is plenty of fire power around in the top four plus SL to win this. SL appear to have the weakest attack.

betfair have partially settled some bets on to qualify for quarter final. i have no idea how they have worked it out. i've got about £560 liability on that market and its showing only £407 exposure. How the **** will i no if they settle it properly or if they balls up as usual.

dont even no how to contact them as there is no live chat showing.

BF partially settle a market, the same way they fully settle, bet by bet.

Any problems will occur, if they eliminate an outcome, which still has a chance, and I don't remember that ever happening.

i've backed sri lanka, eng, wi and pak all to qualify and none of them are determined yet for some reason my aus wallet liability has gone down £240. i have no idea what they have done.

WD, quite a few bowlers in this comp, below their best, including Steyn and M Johnson.

Pakistan are the outsiders to watch.

You must have laid a team that has been eliminated. Go look at your statement.

there's nothing new on my statement. i will have to try and contact them tomorrow.

there are either trying to be partial settle because 1 of sri lanka and eng will qualify and 1 of wi and pak will qualify from the other group, or they have made a mistake.

*they are either trying to

That's right. One of two must be a winner, although which one isn't known yet. Hence your liability has decreased from when both teams could lose.

You'd think they wouldn't bother adjusting the liability in this situation, but they do.

convincing win for SA this morning,still a long way to go....

For me SA have the best team to combat Aus bowlers and batsmen. India have the batsmen to defeat anybody. Aus and SA are the two best teams for me but SA haven't really shown up yet. Today was a brain fart by SL.

Starting to enjoy this competition at last!

Would be nice for WI to throw a cat amongst the pidgeons but can't see it happening really, would be funny though.

Re WI, if the ball swings a soupcon, then they will be 30 odd for 3, or less. None of their top 3/4 batsman move their feet at all.

works both ways Juce.

I think Taylor can be a fine bowler on his day. One good spell.. MugCullum, Williamson, LT and who knows what is possible then the clouds blow away? But your prediction is much more probable!

They looked pretty disinterested in the game against the UAE, even when they had them 5/6 down for peanuts. They have got a few players who I think are wrong uns'. Smith and Samuels, I wouldn't pay them in washers! Plus I've just put a few k back on NZ to win the competition at 6.4. Their odds are worse now than before the tournament started

quite a big over reaction from the saffers win.  went from plus 5 to 3.6 at one point.  NOw drifted to 4 ish.  Expect both saf(4.00) and nz (6.2/6.4)  to move closer together as nz beat windies.

maybe 4.5 saf   5 nz.  maybe closer.

agree lanza
its tough how things have worked out for sa, they are defo 3rd favs imo if nz win their qf as they have potentially 2 away games to win if they are to win outright...only got themselves to blame I suppose for not winning their group but I think they are as good as any team left in this comp on their day
the choke b0ll0cks I cannot stand as an argument tbh

assuming 4.5 Lanza !!!!  SA to win two matches worst case 1.9 v NZ Zealand and 2.8 v Australia which is 4.3 that is current odds, so a free back IMO As New Zealand need to beat Windies and Australia need to beat Pakistan and India to justify the 4.3, Even India are bigger at 5.6 now than before they thrashed Bangladesh, some great value pre Aussie & Kiwis Matches

^I think a crash course in mathematics might be needed tbh

Maybe if you had learnt mathematics then you would understand !!!!!!

pmsl
wrong again lol

If only there were a few more punters like your good self, then I could possibly justify paying premium charge

sorry pttt.  im thinking if aus win tonight, and win well then sa might drift slightly to 4.5.  When nz then play, the massive overreaction to the sa win (v sri lanka) might reverse slightly and sa might be closer to 5.0 than 4.0.

all if's and but's, just hoping aus and nz win.

premium charge is a rip off.  Im not sure anyone paying it should be happy.  Iv paid almost 43k now and i aint happy.  I only carry on (for next few months atleast) because i cant do what i do anywhere else. 20% is managable, 60% im good but i aint that good.

gl lads.

you have no idea who I am and the level to which I am educated or whether I am a winner at the game and where I have my edges

PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH  • March 19, 2015 6:24 PM GMT 
If only there were a few more punters like your good self

what's that then a punter that can work out double prices or 1 that knows that betfair prices reflect the conditional probabilities, or heaven forbid both lol

aus and nz win their qfs = you are trading out for a 0.5-0.75 point loss from 4.3 imo
you get a result in either game = you are gunna get some green
its not a free bet as your worst case scenario is actually 4.3-1 not 4.3

perhaps now you have had your errors pointed out you can admit you've dropped a b0ll0ck, not many do that on here

I never implied that scenario you made up, i said that SA to win both matches was 4.3 pre Australia match, if Australia had been beat by Pakistan then that price would have been considerably shorter, however as we all know Australia won and the price is still 4.3 SA, hence it was a free bet or trade !!!!

Australia wont get away with that against India,maybe not a bad time for a wakeup call,India gone out slightly since last night....

lets see what the price are sa are to lay tonight if nz win, I estimate 4.7-4.9 to lay

said that SA to win both matches was 4.3 pre Australia match
thank you for confirming that a 1.9 and 2.8 double is a 4.3 chance, nice chatting with you

*lets see what price sa are to lay tonight if nz win

The price is 4.2 after the Kiwis won, sometimes hard to second guess the market, i made a point earlier this week that after SA beat Sri Lanka, 4.0 SA was a good value trade price, as it happpens the next three favs one and now 4.2, so a small loss, but had a reasonable chance of the price being much shorter !!!

Told you NZ was absurd at 6.0, 6.2

It would be nice the opposition would ....

market was twitchy in both games.  4.5 was matched for a few k. 

When aussie looked like hammering pak, 4.5 was more than nibbled only for pak to put up some resistance and see aussies drift out a little.

when new zealand were smashing windies... 4.5 was nibbled again.

Big market move i didnt expect was large drift of india,  5.8 ish into 5.2-5.3 when beating banga only to drift ever since.

India and actually nz look big to me now.    probably both get hammered now.

Can we now say the World Cup starts now.

Pretty much wipe the from guide out for the lead up matches to the semis I would have thought.

If anything recent matches shown the run up matches was only bogus entertainment.

Nice to see a contest when it appears

how the **** are south africa favourites aginst new zealand.

Beats me too Yomomma. NZ are playing at the garden of Eden which is a fortress for them. I would have the prices the other way around. Also after today NZ have shown that their middle order and Guptill may be ok so they can get a score without McCullum  or Williamson. Scratching my head here.

Think its an even game, kiwis maybe very slight favs if I had to choose !!!

wd on your trade pttt

nz look huge to me at 6/5

Thanks but I lost small as I expected one of the favs to get beat, but they all won, agreed on Kiwis fair price 6/5

typical betfair prices following the bookies nowadays as some P/C payers have left, so can get some good early value !!!

Bfair market manipulations really annoy me.

They fudged it one way, I needed to go the other. So I had to get in my car, withdraw from the atm and hit the tabs to do the necessary cross matching as well as other online bookies. Very frustrating.

Anyway I managed to green out.

Lucky to do so given the fake markets and bogus matchplay at times.

The WI match v NZ cost me a little. Didn't really think WI would simply make up the numbers without any sort of serious challenge.

Anyway, now I think things will get serious I think it is safer to simply play the match odds markets where the traders can give one the cover one needs at times.

+

SA still have this massive imbalance in the bowling. Duminy & Tahir to bowl 20 in Auckland with Ab as backup is asking a lot. However, NZ have a poor record at Eden Gardens,one win in the last four & two in the last 7. I've still got a heavy weight on NZ for the Tournament so hoping they can take the Saffers to the cleaners!

SA the value for me with 4 teams left,just feel they might finally do it,both semis hard to call especially India/Aus,I dont understand how Aus can be as short as the are to win it out...

NZ just need to be careful through Steyn's overs. Apart from that it looks like a walk in the park for them.

Have to admit to being wrong about NZ. They are looking a tight outfit but still think SA are better than they have been playing.

Both games look tight and exciting to me. Aus v India I sincerely hope is a humdinger and not an anti climax. can't help thinking the game is going to be something to remember for a long time.

No predictions, no bets for me. Am just going to enjoy the cricket and DRAMA.

I was moving my lips, you knew i was lying! India and SA for me but definately no bets. Too close to call.

How literally do we want to take the form from the pool stages and from the warm-up matches?

I pose the question because I have this nagging feeling that maybe NZ are a little flattered by some of those results. I would certainly have South Africa shorter than 4/5 to beat them on Tuesday.

It's worth remembering that these two sides played an ODI series in October. But for the rain, it would have been a 3-0 whitewash to SA. Maybe a lot has changed in the meantime, but they didn't seem particularly closely matched six months ago.

I also can't help looking at the scorecard from the one time in the tournament when NZ faced a decent attack. Yeah, they somehow got the win against Australia, but they were virtually all-out for 150. That top order, I reckon, still has something to prove when the chips are down.

Obviously anything can happen in a one-off game, but I wouldn't be chasing NZ at the price.

NZ at home, playing their best cricket for many years, all departments firing, SA 4/5th bowling options a concern against the powerful NZ top 7, match prices have Saffers slight Favs, yet saffers 4.1 and NZ 5.3 in outright markets, does not make any sense, especially as the Kiwis tend to give the Aussies their hardest battles !!!

the markets rarely make sense on betunfair where they r not using bots to arb bets off against the professional bookies. it's full of losers. look at england/sri lanka odds as an example.

the premium charge is responsible for inefficient prices that occur.

Remember the SA bottling job, which they are experts at, in World Cups, they I put in my very 1st post, for this World Cup.

can't see either of these SFs being cakewalks for the respective victors
should be some ebbs & flows & imho the winners will be those who respond the better to pressure
all 4 capable of wobbling..should be the b*llocks
even tho' the batting has been awesome...still contend that the side whose bowlers perform best will lift the trophy
let's get ready to rumble

let's get ready to grumble!

This could be a Brazillian Love Affair unless there is grass on the pitch at Sydney.

India 5.9 to lay with 3 teams left is a great value bet. They are 3.2/3.25 to beat Australia and will be odds against versus New Zealand. I make them at least 6.4 and have layed accordingly.

They are a good side but will not beat Aus and NZ back to back.

quite a lot of rain in Sydney, not ideal for India's spinners

new zealand 2.76??? what price if aus or india get through to final 3's aus 2.30/2.40 india, if i was not already on them at a big price i would be having a bit of that

NZ SHOOD BE 2.68 AND INDIA 6.00 AT LEAST.

AUS AND NZ ARE THE BEST IN THEIR HOME CONDITIONS.

AUSTRALIA PRICE IS ABOUT RIGHT NOW AT 2.14/2.16. MUGS WERE BACKIGN 2.04 EARLIER.

I reckon an Aus/NZ final will be 1.55/2.82
Therefore with NZ at 2.76 at the moment, maybe pile on NZ & hope Ind have a purple patch in the game & make a profit

Aus/Ind game is being played on the same pitch that SA rolled SL in the quarters. Could be interesting as SL were undone by spin!

9/4 looks big for India.
be very surprised if they didnt go much shorter in-play, maybe even fav's at some point..
expecting a nail biter

It's all about the grass or lack of it. Could be exciting. Would like to see India bat first and score 300+. Interesting to see Convicts under pressure.

How will India cope with Starc? I have a feeling MJ may be put to the sword. If the Indian openers can cope with any early swing we shall have a ball game.

My view is Aus are the better side, certainly in the bowling department ( Sydney pitch excepted ). India though have some advantages. Experience being one of the keys. Aggressive batting is another. Not many teams will come at the Aus bowlers like the Indians.

It may come down to the home advantage being neutered by the Sydney pitch. I have not made a small fortune on this World Cup, mainly because I did not start with a large one! I am going to have my first bet tonight for fun. Half will be on India if they bat first and the other half of the bet if they lose a couple of early wickets. I think we could be in for a treat. I don't care who wins as long as it is not Australia

I don't care who wins as long as it is not Australia

Sh1t !

Does anyone have an opinion on who will/should win player of the tournament?

As far as i can see, leading contenders would be;

guptill
starc
boult
mccullum
maxwell
de villiers

Anyone see past any of the above? Who do you think will get it?

smith maybe if he scores well in the final???, his ton in the semi helped

if starc/boult get crucial wickets in the final it will be 1 of them
if mccullum gets 100 off 50, 80 off 40 etc and sets up a nz victory it will be him

Its nearly, all over, some great cricket, in probably the best World Cup ever. there's no doubt, as I predicted at the start, is that the Aussies are streets clear of every other side and have won the World Cup comfortable. New Zealand have played really well, but have been comfortably beaten on the day.

well done aussies , well deserved ....