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pxb
20 Oct 14 00:24
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
Both teams were unimpressive in the warm up match.

Pitch will play a big role and nobody seems to know how it will play.

Tend to think not a draw, but a good performance by the batting side will bring the draw in quite a lot.
Pause Switch to Standard View Pakistan vs Australia, 1st Test at Dubai
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Report OzBattla October 22, 2014 12:01 PM BST
I have a good green the Pakkies so took the $2.04 Aussies for a small win. All red draw at this stage.
Report pxb October 22, 2014 10:33 PM BST
Judging by the way the ball spun late yesterday, batting first will prove to be a big advantage. This pitch is only going to get drier.

If Pak manage to get past 300, I don't fancy Australia's chances.
Report OzBattla October 22, 2014 11:24 PM BST
Have to agree pxb, Pakistan appear in a good spot. It looked to me like the Aussies took the new ball but where then told after a few overs that the little wasnt suitable for Johnson/Siddle?? Anyone else get that impression? Seemed strange that they only bowled 2 overs each with it. Obviously tired but would expect a 5 over burst before the end of play would be manageable. Shafiq looked compact. First ten overs in the morning obviously will be the key. Get through those overs intact and take the new ball away and Pakistan will be in a commanding position.
Report OzBattla October 22, 2014 11:24 PM BST
Light.
Report pxb October 23, 2014 8:36 AM BST
A wicket at last.
Report OzBattla October 23, 2014 8:47 AM BST
Pakistan in the driving seat massively imo. Anything over 350 will be a very good score.
Report kt22 October 23, 2014 9:08 AM BST
Can see Aus getting into trouble here trying to force the pace.Hope we make a good start and get a sub evens draw lay.
Report Whisperingdeath October 23, 2014 9:12 AM BST
I haven't been watching. Wqas going to ask if there has been any spin and what are these Paki bowlers like but just saw MJ's first wicket and have reverted to the if you bet on Pakistan you deserve to lose your money view!

Pakistan must be in the driving seat though.
Report OzBattla October 23, 2014 9:43 AM BST
Yeah can absolutely see the Aussies pushing the pace and being all out
Report OzBattla October 23, 2014 9:58 AM BST
Lay the draw at the change of inns for mine..
Report Whisperingdeath October 23, 2014 10:04 AM BST
Am moving to lay the draw too as it covers the Pakistan money back guarantee!

Even money seems a good price with 3 and a half days to go! Have not been watching until today and hoping for some pitch advancement.
Report kt22 October 23, 2014 10:05 AM BST
Yeh taking some now
Report kt22 October 23, 2014 10:07 AM BST
WD always good to have cover against Pak 2nd inningsWink
Report Whisperingdeath October 23, 2014 10:50 AM BST
curse of the commentator! cant see O'keefe taking too many test wicketsLaugh
Report Whisperingdeath October 23, 2014 11:04 AM BST
what a great knock! where do pakistan find these players!  What a shame their country is such a rotten state!

100 of 80! I hope he will cut loose soon!
Report kt22 October 23, 2014 12:05 PM BST
happy Gazza got 2.
Report pxb October 23, 2014 12:05 PM BST
If any team can win from here, it is Australia, but a big ask.
Report kt22 October 23, 2014 12:09 PM BST
Will be great viewing
Report kt22 October 23, 2014 12:21 PM BST
wonder if Alistair is watching for some ideas.
Report lanza October 23, 2014 5:04 PM BST
how are we getting result here now? warner gets a quick 200, aussies make 600-650 around tea on day 4 and pak crumble 2nd time around?

wicket looked flat, gonne need some major advancement to get a result, both attacks looked poor today.  draw to go really low tomor?
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 23, 2014 5:10 PM BST
tend to think that only a poor aussie run rate and a few wkts falling will see the draw shorten, given that the current run rate is above 3.5 r/p and the ball is reverse swinging, and spinning, think we might see the draw trade a little higher at some point on day 3 Cool
Report ayt October 23, 2014 5:57 PM BST
draw ll trade much lower here..pak made 400+++ against aussie after 26 years,,thats matterCool
Report lanza October 23, 2014 6:01 PM BST
think the aussies score at 4 rpo tomor (thanks to warner) = 360 in the day = 470 = +20 ish at the close of play.

3.5rpo = aussies still 20 odd behind
3 rpo = aussies still 70 odd behind. but looking at this aussie line up i cant see many who can / hang about with it.

thinking aussies are around 470/6 close of play. For some reason i thought this was the ground where ab de villiers scored the then sa record (278) but its not (just checked)  but thinking warner goes big tomor. 

pak 6.4-6.6
aus 3.4-3.45
draw1.79-1.80

cant see this pak attack casuing many probs unless the leggie starts to rip it square.  book talk...want pak to drift big to 10,  little aus drift to 4.0 and draw to shorten to 1.4  as they end day 3 all square. Laugh

i wish.  lol
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 23, 2014 7:17 PM BST
Grin
Report pxb October 23, 2014 9:40 PM BST
Another scenario is Warner gets out, Rogers stays in and they crawl along at 2 an over for a couple of sessions.

You generally get one surprise in a Test match and it may be Australia's middle order struggling as Clarke nurses his hamstring and avoids quick singles.

Still, I expect Aus to bat into day 4 and the draw sub 1.5.
Report Whisperingdeath October 24, 2014 3:18 AM BST
Tough call. I expect a few twist and turns yet. Big assumptions that Aussie bat into a lead. Still a long way to go and pitch may play a part yet but consensus may be right so I am going to reverse out of draw lay at 1.89 for a small loss and maybe a buy back later  for a specualtive punt on the pitch.
Report lanza October 24, 2014 10:20 AM BST
Morning lads,  these double headers are a nightmare,  fell asleep towards the end of the nz innings, just woke up.

Happy to see warner still there, but lost to many wickets for me.  need a 100-1/2 session for me run bets now.
Report Esox October 24, 2014 10:33 AM BST
Warner out Cry
Report lanza October 24, 2014 10:40 AM BST
i feel like im having a shocker. Sad
Report Whisperingdeath October 24, 2014 10:53 AM BST
doh, I bought the draw back at 1.82 for a small loss last night! Probably the right decision to be fair to me.  I do think Pakistan win this game though but there is a long way to go and Pakistan have not played their Joker yet!

I'd rather be out when Pakis are involved but can still enjoy the cricket.
Report Esox October 24, 2014 11:34 AM BST
249 for 6 : 205 runs behind. Aus in trouble.
Report Esox October 24, 2014 12:18 PM BST
272/8 : 182 behind. Pakistan odds on.
Report lanza October 24, 2014 12:25 PM BST
need another 20 to salvage things.  come on mitch!
Report ayt October 24, 2014 3:12 PM BST
pakistan win the match
Report blackcap October 24, 2014 9:55 PM BST
pakistan are bowling last as well are they not? Cannot believe Pakistan are still so long. Oh yes thats right.. its Pakistan.
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 1:40 AM BST
Expect Aus to trade odds on at some stage during the chase.Should be a volatile final dayGrin
Report DStyle October 25, 2014 8:42 AM BST
very very pedestrian batting from pakistan given the lead.
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 8:46 AM BST
Pak have a better chance of winning if Aus bowl them out,taking the hard decisions away from them.They always meander along in these situations.
Report B1GTONY76 October 25, 2014 9:25 AM BST
any thoughts on dec score ?
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 9:40 AM BST
Another session with 100 runs and half a session after tea will be plenty.But they will bat on too long and waste time if not dismissed.
Report GRANTCKING October 25, 2014 11:09 AM BST
draw looks free here, pak have batted far too slowly
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 11:24 AM BST
Showing intent now
Report GRANTCKING October 25, 2014 11:33 AM BST
after that one over gone straight back into their shell, wtf are they doing
Report GRANTCKING October 25, 2014 11:47 AM BST
now they will have to waste 13 odd overs to get past 420, mug batting from a mug team
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 11:58 AM BST
Shocked
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 11:59 AM BST
And they will lose overs at the turn, very poor when 9 wkts in the hutch Shocked
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 12:01 PM BST
only 123 overs left in game and 384 ahead with 9 wkts left, yes what on earth are they doing Confused
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 12:04 PM BST
Plenty trading left in this match.Can see all results trading odds on
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 12:05 PM BST
for sure, but just terrible cricket and now a review wasting more time and 400 ahead Laugh
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 12:07 PM BST
that one ball took 5 mins Grin
Report GRANTCKING October 25, 2014 12:10 PM BST
TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR LaughLaughLaugh
Report GRANTCKING October 25, 2014 12:10 PM BST
absolutley pathetic, they shouldve been in 20/20 mode an hour ago, aus wouldve been batting now
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 12:10 PM BST
You'd think it was the English in dire straihtsWinkInstead of Pak in a strong position
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 12:12 PM BST
2 singles from that over Happy
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 12:14 PM BST
Yes, great batting by pakistan, but very poor tactically
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 12:15 PM BST
Pitch still playing ok.Misbah might not have faith in his newish attack
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 12:19 PM BST
yes, Clarke not happy Grin
Report GRANTCKING October 25, 2014 12:22 PM BST
pak have sttled for a draw, god I hate test cricket, so risk averse, give me the IPL anyday Cry
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 12:28 PM BST
great batting by younis, think pakistan will win Happy
Report DStyle October 25, 2014 12:28 PM BST
450 with a declaration an hour before the close is a pretty vanilla declaration.

seems fine. they could have gone harder this morning i think and got another half hour
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 12:31 PM BST
Misbah is as conservative as any English skipper.....well apart from Cook he is on a completely different level
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 12:32 PM BST
the pakistan 2nd innings r/r was only 3.5 and only 2 wkts down at end, if it is a draw pakistan will reflect on their poor tactics on day 4 of this test
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 12:33 PM BST
cook would of declared at tea with at least 425 on the board Cool
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 12:35 PM BST
No would have batted till tea.Day 6
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 12:36 PM BST
Grin
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 12:38 PM BST
My fav English captain.Be a travesty if not in charge for the AshesGrin
Report DStyle October 25, 2014 12:40 PM BST
PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH 25 Oct 14 12:32 
the pakistan 2nd innings r/r was only 3.5 and only 2 wkts down at end, if it is a draw pakistan will reflect on their poor tactics on day 4 of this test


it's not though is it.

they secured the draw first, which is the right thing to do, getting to 150 only one down at a conservative rate, and now they've upped the rate significantly. they can now be aggressive in their fielding which is presumably important given that they'll be a lot of spin.

it's pretty normal, certainly not poor. a bit conservative, but the result, as it nearly always does, is going to hinge largely on how they well they bowl in the first 60 overs of Aus' innings.
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 1:05 PM BST
would love Aus 0 for 65 at stumps.Get the market nervous
Report Blake84 October 25, 2014 1:48 PM BST
I can't believe how many referrals are umpires call. Hawkeye is a load of sh#t anyway but umpires call should be disregarded in case of referrals. I have no bets on, just something that always sh#ts me.
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 1:50 PM BST
tuk tuk time
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 1:53 PM BST
The point was about the 3.5 r/r when only finished 2 wkts down and pakistan were way ahead in the match statistically and historically, IMO this was way to conservative and poor tactics, given at the time there was around only 120 overs left in the game, with a spinning and bouncing ball on a day 5 pitch Happy
Report Whisperingdeath October 25, 2014 1:54 PM BST
A lot of experts on the timing of the declaration! Sometimes best leave it to the professionals, they know what they are doing and a bit of W.A.T on the wicket doesn't hurt. No point giving up 150-1 on a flat wicket.
Report DStyle October 25, 2014 1:55 PM BST
Blake84 25 Oct 14 13:48 
I can't believe how many referrals are umpires call. Hawkeye is a load of sh#t anyway but umpires call should be disregarded in case of referrals. I have no bets on, just something that always sh#ts me.

i don't agree with that. you should only go to hawkeye for howlers. umpires call isn't a howler, therefore you lose a review.
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 1:55 PM BST
not experts whispering, just good opinions Cool
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 1:56 PM BST
do not get me started on the referral system Happy
Report GRANTCKING October 25, 2014 2:02 PM BST
AUS v spin LaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report GRANTCKING October 25, 2014 2:02 PM BST

Oct 25, 2014 -- 1:50PM, kt22 wrote:


tuk tuk time


GrinGrinGrin

Report Whisperingdeath October 25, 2014 2:03 PM BST
Blake

I have some sympathy but if you played cricket in days of yore you might remember hardly anybody was given out lbw. People think Swann was a great bowler, better than the likes of Derek Underwood but he wouldn't have taken half his wickets without DRS.

Umpiring was never an exact science and wafer thin decisions undeterminable by the human eye are not what cricket is about. I think DRS was brought in to over turn howlers and stop fielding teams intimidating Umpires. I remember when Clarke took 3 Indian wickets in the final over of a Test and two were missing by a mile but the Umpire was got at. Now intimidating appeals can be parried with a simple retort of " are you calling for a review? " That shuts them up!

Having said that I have some sympathy when it shows hitting quite clearly! We should just remember what it was like and for those of you too young to remember the first time Javed Miandad was given out LBW in Pakisatn was during a World Cup with neutral Umpires!  There's another thing. Biased umpires were all over the world.
Report Whisperingdeath October 25, 2014 2:05 PM BST
Truth,

Opinions are like azaleas ( man with two brains! ).......everyone has got one!Laugh
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH October 25, 2014 2:06 PM BST
well summed up, but not sure on the azaleas quote though Grin
Report Whisperingdeath October 25, 2014 2:11 PM BST
From the Man with two brains a Steve Martin film. Very funny.

Man brings wife home for first time. Mexican house keepers are waving a welcome from the porch. Wife says Honey what are those two ****s doing on the porch and he says they're not ****s Honey, they're azaleas!

loses a bit in translation but makes me chuckle everytime I think of it! I use it in the pub to see if anyone is on my wavelength by referring to people as azaleas.
Report Whisperingdeath October 25, 2014 2:12 PM BST
and I use it sometimes on these forums as shole = azalea
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 2:12 PM BST

Oct 25, 2014 -- 2:02PM, GRANTCKING wrote:


AUS v spin


Like Scots and independenceWink

Report Whisperingdeath October 25, 2014 2:16 PM BST
Grant is half English and loyal to the Queen and Empire!

You are fishing in the wrong river kt! I might advise you to time your digs when Aus play England, you will have better ammunitionLaugh
Report Whisperingdeath October 25, 2014 2:17 PM BST
Blake did you missed an easy even money bet on Toulon? I didSad
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 2:19 PM BST
WD if I saved my digs for the Ashes they would be exhausted before drinks, 1st session, day 1, 1st test
Report Whisperingdeath October 25, 2014 2:21 PM BST
I am not looking forward to it I can tell you!
Report Whisperingdeath October 25, 2014 2:22 PM BST
Did I misinterpret that?

Are you saying you have as much faith in Aus as we do in Team Flower Power?
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 2:25 PM BST
No you got it.Expecting a nice 0-5 bookend weather permitting
Report ayt October 25, 2014 2:28 PM BST
Grant i win again..
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 2:32 PM BST
WD if one was half English wouldn't it be batter value to highlight the superior half?
Report kt22 October 25, 2014 2:33 PM BST
*better
Report pxb October 25, 2014 10:33 PM BST
I anticipated Australia's middle order might struggle, but much worse than I thought.

A draw seems a pretty remote possibility.
Report earlycrow October 25, 2014 11:32 PM BST
This is a very poor Australian side, the fact that they would be the number one side in the world by winning this series is a blight on Test cricket and underpins the fact it is close to going onto life support
Report mafeking October 26, 2014 12:10 AM BST
would say there really isn't much choose between almost anyone at the moment. home advantage is just massive

even the likes of sri lanka and new zealand have shown promising signs recently

the fact that there is a lot of wide margin home series wins is down to the lack of warm up matches both before and during the series. very difficult with loads of back to back tests for the away side to find form quickly enough

as for the rankings it's farcical that australia somehow briefly got to number on the back beating england and south africa when they are still carrying a 0-3 and 0-4 series result on their record. south africa have lost 1 series in 5 years (?) and haven't lost away for longer than that
Report slip5 October 26, 2014 10:38 AM GMT
16/1 for the draw is value
Report slip5 October 26, 2014 10:42 AM GMT
these two batters are capable to bat 28 overs and also natan lionheart
Report Injera October 26, 2014 11:14 AM GMT
Lyon's only allowed one innings..
Report Kelly October 26, 2014 11:16 AM GMT
Posts are ahead of time .  Wonder can we backdate our bets by an hour ?
Report slip5 October 26, 2014 11:30 AM GMT
poor decison by 3rd umpire, darren lehman seething
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