Cricket
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How can India be 1.77 to beat South Africa today but only 2.56 in the outright market? Discuss
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because if the match is a washout, they go through automatically, and apparently theres some non zero chance that'll happen. if thats the case all bets in match odds market are off and so it isnt forced to price that possibility in. if the match is rain affected, then indias edge decreases since the contest becomes more of a crapshoot. so, theres x% (chance washout) + y% (chance india wins a non washed out contest) that india go through to contest the final, which combines to form their outright price, whereas their match odds price stipulates that a contest takes place and assumes that india has x% chance of winning a full contest y% chance of winning an abbreviated contest. short version, their outright price is positively impacted by chance of rain, but their match odds price is negatively impacted.
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There is always that. Still the forecast is clear after 6.
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CMM - Yes currently 1.51
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