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skips21
29 Jan 13 15:23
Joined:
Date Joined: 06 Nov 08
| Topic/replies: 585 | Blogger: skips21's blog
The DRAW at 4.2

The weather forcast is terrible 60-70% chance of showers/thunderstorms predicted

And we all kno what the south african weather is like when it rains its rains hard

Really cant believe the price on the forcast i wud bet

4/5 sa 7/4 draw 11/2 pakistan
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Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 11:46 AM GMT

Feb 2, 2013 -- 5:45AM, kingmax wrote:


na they will declare overnight... think they will want 400 still


We'll see.  Going to be interesting.  I still think FO was more sensible mind.

Report kingmax February 2, 2013 11:47 AM GMT
even 120 all out would be fun
Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 11:48 AM GMT

Feb 2, 2013 -- 5:47AM, kingmax wrote:


even 120 all out would be fun


agreed

Report peckerdunne February 2, 2013 11:48 AM GMT
Super honesty Kingmax, foolish too,have we not all tried it and failed miserably.

IF YOU DONT WRITE IT DOWN IT WONT HAPPEN...PLAN PLAN PLAN....
Report kingmax February 2, 2013 11:50 AM GMT
have faith guys... SA will be 100 all out.... then the fun begins
Report peckerdunne February 2, 2013 11:52 AM GMT
BANGA BASH IS F IN CRAAAAZZZZZEEEEEE
Report kingmax February 2, 2013 11:55 AM GMT
i know it sounds stupid, but i think by SA batting they bring the draw into play... hard to score on... day 5 washout... leaves pak 1 /12 days to bat it out
Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 12:01 PM GMT

Feb 2, 2013 -- 5:55AM, kingmax wrote:


i know it sounds stupid, but i think by SA batting they bring the draw into play... hard to score on... day 5 washout... leaves pak 1 /12 days to bat it out


they do.  Hence why I'm convinced they will go hard today and declare before close.

Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 12:02 PM GMT
always go easy for first few overs with new ball then attack
Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 12:02 PM GMT
lead of 450 will be more than enough.
Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 12:29 PM GMT
smithy going for the ton - reckon that might have also been a factor in NOT enforcing the FO.
Report rob_dylan February 2, 2013 12:29 PM GMT
Sporting spreads go 19-22 for first wkt dismissal index... Ie every run over fifty partnership is a point.  Seems v.v. Generous, have I misunderstood the rules?  Hope not as I have £5 a run on it.
Report rob_dylan February 2, 2013 12:30 PM GMT
21-24 now
Report tonyf February 2, 2013 12:47 PM GMT
you misunderstood, it is based on whether the dismissal is a catch, bowled, etc
Report rob_dylan February 2, 2013 12:48 PM GMT
Just realised tonyf.  Catastrophically show.  Oh well, you live and learn.  Bllox.
Report rob_dylan February 2, 2013 12:49 PM GMT
Just hope next wicket isnt caught.  Ffs.
Report rob_dylan February 2, 2013 12:51 PM GMT
I clicked on the info thing, and said any runs over 50, but I mistakenly hit the 50up tab for Smith runs.  Wanna get my money back now but that is bad business, will have to just take it on the chin, but fair chance I lose a ton now.
Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 12:51 PM GMT
RTFR!!!
Report rob_dylan February 2, 2013 12:53 PM GMT
Did wonder why the market wasnt increasing, if something is too good to be true it usually is.  No complaints here, my own stupid fault,
Report rob_dylan February 2, 2013 12:54 PM GMT
What does that mean nigel?
Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 12:57 PM GMT

Feb 2, 2013 -- 6:54AM, rob_dylan wrote:


What does that mean nigel?


Read the F**king rules! Excited

Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 12:58 PM GMT
market finally waking up to the fact that PAK can't win this
Report rob_dylan February 2, 2013 12:59 PM GMT
I thought I had nigel.  Like I say I take it on the chin, the only way to take it.  But who hasnt made a daft mistake like that in their betting career?
Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 1:00 PM GMT

Feb 2, 2013 -- 6:59AM, rob_dylan wrote:


I thought I had nigel.

Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 1:00 PM GMT
only joking mate Excited
Report rob_dylan February 2, 2013 1:01 PM GMT
I would love to blame someone, but i have only myself to blame.  Cry
Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 1:03 PM GMT

Feb 2, 2013 -- 7:01AM, rob_dylan wrote:


I would love to blame someone, but i have only myself to blame. 


indeed.  Been there mate.  Annoying.  But as you say part of the game.

Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 1:04 PM GMT
tell you what, Draw could look an amazing lay in the low teens if it happens
Report lanza February 2, 2013 1:05 PM GMT
hopefully smith'l charge and get stumped.  lol. ... or a run out.
Report rob_dylan February 2, 2013 1:06 PM GMT
Now I have to keep an eye on this match, which is generally devoid of betting opportunities, just to see how the next wicket falls.
Report rob_dylan February 2, 2013 1:07 PM GMT
Bowled or lbw would do, and far from beyond the realms of possibility.
Report lanza February 2, 2013 1:11 PM GMT
bowled / lbw +130
run out / stumped / hit wicket  +380

caught -105


ooooo    2 lbw shouts....  lol..
Report lanza February 2, 2013 1:12 PM GMT
obstruction +380... Cool

markets seem dead.  might switch over and watch us probably lose to ireland. Sad
Report lanza February 2, 2013 1:16 PM GMT
shame you hadnt done 1st wicket stand.  101-106... unlucky.
Report rob_dylan February 2, 2013 1:25 PM GMT
That is what i thought i was backing, but 50ups on first wicket stand.
Report lanza February 2, 2013 1:41 PM GMT
Sad
Report rob_dylan February 2, 2013 1:43 PM GMT
Agree with lanza
Report kingmax February 2, 2013 2:05 PM GMT
has any team EVER batted for 3 days?
Report Mariner Paul February 2, 2013 4:29 PM GMT
A pleasing day. You can always rely on Pakistan. Laugh
Report Whisperingdeath February 2, 2013 5:46 PM GMT
Well I didn't expect that!

My Pakistani friend did allude to a crap batting performance first time out but I didn't figure him for Mystic Meg.  In hind sight I should have taken 1.70 when it was available as a couple of wickets from Steyn and Philander were to be expected but not 7 by lunch!

I think Smith will want 600.  He is overly cautious but Force 10 from Navarone wouldn't be able to stop play long enough for a draw!

Some days ve vin, some days ve lose.  Today ve lose! 

Lucky I don't trust Pakistan too much so £92 isn't going to bust my sphincter.
Report tonyf February 2, 2013 6:20 PM GMT
600!!!!!!!!!!  Rubbish
Report tonyf February 2, 2013 6:21 PM GMT
Declare with about 480-500 lead
Report Whisperingdeath February 2, 2013 6:59 PM GMT
600 is only two sessions batting.  He will certainly give the current pair a chance of making centuries and then bif bash Faf will have a tonk.   400 might prove more than enough already but no way in hell will he declare with a lead of 480.  You my friend are dreaming.  He will let his bowlers expand the cracks and continue to rough up the wicket.

A declaration at lunch leaves Pakistan 2 sessions on a day 3 pitch which potentially leaves then around 320 to get over days 4 and 5.  Agreed unlikely but he wont give them a sniff will Smith.
Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 7:04 PM GMT
I reckon he'll leave PAK 550 to get which will probably be done just after lunch.  Draw highly unlikely but still a hugely outside shout if rains sweep in.

PAK cannot win this and 65 is a good value bet to lay IMHO.
Report nicky27 February 2, 2013 8:34 PM GMT
still not sure why smith didn't enforce ,I know you might say he wants his bowlers fresh ,but they only bowled 29 overs , by enforcing the follow on, it takes any issue of when to declare out of the equation and also means you might not even need to bat again
Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 8:41 PM GMT

Feb 2, 2013 -- 2:34PM, nicky27 wrote:


still not sure why smith didn't enforce ,I know you might say he wants his bowlers fresh ,but they only bowled 29 overs , by enforcing the follow on, it takes any issue of when to declare out of the equation and also means you might not even need to bat again


A few ideas :

1) Sponsors, crowd and TV want as much Cricket as possible
2) Gives his lads a chance at batting
3) He was hoping to get a ton in his 100th TM
4) If PAK somehow managed to get > 300 in the innings SA would have some pressure
5) PAK batting half way through the day tomorrow after being out in the field for 50 overs will be tough for them.

All these in total however wouldn't have been enough if I were Graeme Smith.  Knowing what you need to get in the 2nd innings is a far more powerful position to be in.

Report nicky27 February 2, 2013 8:52 PM GMT
indeed nigel ...that is if you need to bat a second time at all
Report nigelpm1 February 2, 2013 8:56 PM GMT

Feb 2, 2013 -- 2:52PM, nicky27 wrote:


indeed nigel ...that is if you need to bat a second time at all


Exactly!  The way they were bowling it would seem quite unlikely.  Any thoughts on why PAK are still in double figures and not > 100?  Risk of SA declaring soon?  Highest ever total on this pitch is 311!

Report tonyf February 3, 2013 8:54 AM GMT
Going to declare before lunch I reckon
Report tonyf February 3, 2013 9:08 AM GMT
when Amla reaches 100
Report nigelpm1 February 3, 2013 9:10 AM GMT
Definitely.  Around a lead of 550.  Market finally getting it - PAK out >100.  Draw still a chance though - a lot of rain monday and tuesday now if PAK keep their heads.
Report nigelpm1 February 3, 2013 9:16 AM GMT
declared!
Report tonyf February 3, 2013 9:19 AM GMT
as expected, I said 480-500, read above
Report nigelpm1 February 3, 2013 9:49 AM GMT

Feb 3, 2013 -- 3:19AM, tonyf wrote:


as expected, I said 480-500, read above


eh? Amla didn't get the ton!

Report tonyf February 3, 2013 9:52 AM GMT
true, but the rest was spot on, some way from 550 and the guy who said 600
Report tonyf February 3, 2013 9:54 AM GMT
not much point posting my views as just seem to get negative comments, so bye, find me on twitter if you want
Report nigelpm1 February 3, 2013 10:07 AM GMT

Feb 3, 2013 -- 3:52AM, tonyf wrote:


true, but the rest was spot on, some way from 550 and the guy who said 600


they declared early because of the chance of rain.

Report nigelpm1 February 3, 2013 10:08 AM GMT

Feb 3, 2013 -- 3:54AM, tonyf wrote:


not much point posting my views as just seem to get negative comments, so bye, find me on twitter if you want


hardly negative.  Posts need challenging

Report tonyf February 3, 2013 10:13 AM GMT
well of course they declared because of rain, that was the point, challenge posts if you want but think first
Report nigelpm1 February 3, 2013 10:20 AM GMT

Feb 3, 2013 -- 4:13AM, tonyf wrote:


well of course they declared because of rain, that was the point, challenge posts if you want but think first


yes, the point being the forecast is worse today than y'day when the declaration views were posted.

Report tonyf February 3, 2013 10:22 AM GMT
Have it your own way
Report tonyf February 3, 2013 10:23 AM GMT
as I won several hundred I don't care
Report nigelpm1 February 3, 2013 11:47 AM GMT
SA 1.05 - seems value.  Big man Jamshed gone
Report nigelpm1 February 3, 2013 12:48 PM GMT

Feb 3, 2013 -- 4:22AM, tonyf wrote:


Have it your own way


I'm not saying I'm right - just putting out other viewpoints.

Report goonjim February 3, 2013 12:51 PM GMT
where are the innings runs layers? Confused
Report ayt February 3, 2013 1:13 PM GMT
goonjim..what u think about current innings runs
Report tonyf February 3, 2013 1:22 PM GMT
Put a couple up for you
Report goonjim February 3, 2013 1:39 PM GMT
i think they won't make 480. you're welcome.
Report ayt February 3, 2013 2:04 PM GMT
thats a gud shout..goonjim
Report peckerdunne February 3, 2013 2:07 PM GMT
Is the recovery going well?
Report ayt February 3, 2013 2:20 PM GMT
anyone thinks they ll all out today?
Report kingmax February 3, 2013 3:00 PM GMT
rain dance
Report kingmax February 3, 2013 3:04 PM GMT
NBLaughLaugh
Report ayt February 3, 2013 3:07 PM GMT
lol
Report Footiefan111 February 3, 2013 3:31 PM GMT
is day 5 a washout
Report nigelpm1 February 3, 2013 3:33 PM GMT

Feb 3, 2013 -- 9:31AM, Footiefan111 wrote:


is day 5 a washout


no, forecast has since improved

Report kingmax February 3, 2013 3:51 PM GMT
fraw is impossible then
Report kingmax February 3, 2013 4:03 PM GMT
hope it rains for a day might get some market panic
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH February 3, 2013 4:41 PM GMT
nigel forcast for tomorrow is not very good in terms of heavy thundery showers currently day 5 has improved somewhat Shocked
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH February 3, 2013 4:46 PM GMT
tend to think not much downside laying saffers at mo worst case 1.06 if they start on time Surprised
Report RajaFiaz February 3, 2013 4:54 PM GMT
rain is forecast for the afternoon ... may be too late to save pakistan ... they need to survive the new ball and the morning session .... that is a tough ask .... not much batting to come after misbah and shafiq ... but if they get through it looks like a day and half of rain ahead ...
Report kingmax February 3, 2013 4:58 PM GMT
well its meant to be heavy rain and thunderstroms all night? whats the drainage like here?
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH February 3, 2013 5:01 PM GMT
imo the rain is forcast overnight and into the morning which was endorsed by the commentators with a break early afternoon then more thundery showers late afternoon but of course time will tell
Report kingmax February 3, 2013 5:11 PM GMT
flash flood would be niceLaughLaughLaugh
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH February 3, 2013 5:15 PM GMT
Laugh
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH February 3, 2013 5:16 PM GMT
did mariner come out of his pakistan lay king? he tends to lay the away team or outsider of three
Report RajaFiaz February 3, 2013 5:22 PM GMT
where are you guys seeing overnight rain forecast? i am looking at the weather channel forecast and it is saying rain around 1:00pm tomorrow. Before then it is shown as cloudy?
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH February 3, 2013 5:26 PM GMT
precipitation models Raja but in this neck of the woods could be a washout or a clear day
Report nigelpm1 February 3, 2013 6:15 PM GMT
Saffers look pretty big to me. WHY?

Highest ever 2nd innings chase was 411 and PAK are nearly halfway there but already 4 wickets down.

I've taken PAK out of the equation - they should be 100/1 - it's highly improbable they can even get close to this.

Now the weather - it's moved around a lot the last few days but currently forecast rain both days however a lot less precipitation than was forecast at the start of the game.  So I'd imagine a couple of sessions lost absolute max.

Gotta give PAK credit - they've come out and had a go but with the new ball due shortly their resistance will evaporate and I wouldn't be surprised to see it all over by tea tomorrow. (or lunch if no rain)
Report lee_arama February 3, 2013 6:56 PM GMT
Weather forcast - "Chance of rain: 91%" That's Monday.

Tuesday: "Chance of rain: 79%"
Report nigelpm1 February 3, 2013 9:33 PM GMT
dug out the 4th innings stats :

http://anccricket.webs.com/records/test/14.html
Report nigelpm1 February 3, 2013 9:34 PM GMT

Feb 3, 2013 -- 12:56PM, lee_arama wrote:


Weather forcast - "Chance of rain: 91%" That's Monday.Tuesday: "Chance of rain: 79%"


Should be 100% - there's going to be some rain both days - question is how much and what delay it puts on the game?

Being able to move the breaks and finish late helps.

Report RajaFiaz February 3, 2013 9:59 PM GMT
i think you are right nigel ... can't see pak chasing this down ... they have little batting left after misbah and shafiq .... rain is forecast but not till the afternoon .... pak batting may not survive long enough to be saved by rain .... the new ball is due early in the morning ....
Report nigelpm1 February 4, 2013 7:41 AM GMT
Other factor of course is that it's going be very cloudy conditions between the rain - great for bowling.  Just needs a breakthrough from one of the set batsmen.
Report Millionaire_Morse February 4, 2013 9:09 AM GMT
GAME SET AND MATCH THE MIGHTY SOUTH AFRICA
full bank bet on 1.02 , picking up some lovely risk free free money .
love backing something that CANNOT lose , so easy .
Report lee_arama February 4, 2013 9:12 AM GMT
Until the heavens open and it's Noah's Ark LOL

But I'm behind you anyway... On U295.5 runs here and was having a mild sweat for a while there.
Report Millionaire_Morse February 4, 2013 9:25 AM GMT
of course i am 100 % right again .
Report lee_arama February 4, 2013 9:25 AM GMT
Well then... This is a nice short wait. Might well have my winnings in the bank within the half hour.
Report JustWinBaby February 4, 2013 12:16 PM GMT
It's a shame that Steyn doesn't get the media coverage around the world he deserves, especially for someone who is on track to become the greatest fast bowler of the modern era
Report nigelpm1 February 4, 2013 1:29 PM GMT
Certainly the best bowler in the world right now.
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