MASSIVE MASSIVE VALUE!!!! Saffers vs pakis 1st test

Feb 2, 2013 -- 11:45AM, kingmax wrote:

na they will declare overnight... think they will want 400 still

We'll see.  Going to be interesting.  I still think FO was more sensible mind.

even 120 all out would be fun

Feb 2, 2013 -- 11:47AM, kingmax wrote:

even 120 all out would be fun

agreed

Super honesty Kingmax, foolish too,have we not all tried it and failed miserably.

IF YOU DONT WRITE IT DOWN IT WONT HAPPEN...PLAN PLAN PLAN....

have faith guys... SA will be 100 all out.... then the fun begins

BANGA BASH IS F IN CRAAAAZZZZZEEEEEE

i know it sounds stupid, but i think by SA batting they bring the draw into play... hard to score on... day 5 washout... leaves pak 1 /12 days to bat it out

Feb 2, 2013 -- 11:55AM, kingmax wrote:

i know it sounds stupid, but i think by SA batting they bring the draw into play... hard to score on... day 5 washout... leaves pak 1 /12 days to bat it out

they do.  Hence why I'm convinced they will go hard today and declare before close.

always go easy for first few overs with new ball then attack

lead of 450 will be more than enough.

smithy going for the ton - reckon that might have also been a factor in NOT enforcing the FO.

Sporting spreads go 19-22 for first wkt dismissal index... Ie every run over fifty partnership is a point.  Seems v.v. Generous, have I misunderstood the rules?  Hope not as I have £5 a run on it.

21-24 now

you misunderstood, it is based on whether the dismissal is a catch, bowled, etc

Just realised tonyf.  Catastrophically show.  Oh well, you live and learn.  Bllox.

Just hope next wicket isnt caught.  Ffs.

I clicked on the info thing, and said any runs over 50, but I mistakenly hit the 50up tab for Smith runs.  Wanna get my money back now but that is bad business, will have to just take it on the chin, but fair chance I lose a ton now.

RTFR!!!

Did wonder why the market wasnt increasing, if something is too good to be true it usually is.  No complaints here, my own stupid fault,

What does that mean nigel?

Feb 2, 2013 -- 12:54PM, rob_dylan wrote:

What does that mean nigel?

Read the F**king rules!

market finally waking up to the fact that PAK can't win this

I thought I had nigel.  Like I say I take it on the chin, the only way to take it.  But who hasnt made a daft mistake like that in their betting career?

Feb 2, 2013 -- 12:59PM, rob_dylan wrote:

I thought I had nigel.

only joking mate

I would love to blame someone, but i have only myself to blame. 

Feb 2, 2013 -- 1:01PM, rob_dylan wrote:

I would love to blame someone, but i have only myself to blame. 

indeed.  Been there mate.  Annoying.  But as you say part of the game.

tell you what, Draw could look an amazing lay in the low teens if it happens

hopefully smith'l charge and get stumped.  lol. ... or a run out.

Now I have to keep an eye on this match, which is generally devoid of betting opportunities, just to see how the next wicket falls.

Bowled or lbw would do, and far from beyond the realms of possibility.

bowled / lbw +130
run out / stumped / hit wicket  +380

caught -105


ooooo    2 lbw shouts....  lol..

obstruction +380...

markets seem dead.  might switch over and watch us probably lose to ireland.

shame you hadnt done 1st wicket stand.  101-106... unlucky.

That is what i thought i was backing, but 50ups on first wicket stand.

Agree with lanza

has any team EVER batted for 3 days?

A pleasing day. You can always rely on Pakistan.

Well I didn't expect that!

My Pakistani friend did allude to a crap batting performance first time out but I didn't figure him for Mystic Meg.  In hind sight I should have taken 1.70 when it was available as a couple of wickets from Steyn and Philander were to be expected but not 7 by lunch!

I think Smith will want 600.  He is overly cautious but Force 10 from Navarone wouldn't be able to stop play long enough for a draw!

Some days ve vin, some days ve lose.  Today ve lose! 

Lucky I don't trust Pakistan too much so £92 isn't going to bust my sphincter.

600!!!!!!!!!!  Rubbish

Declare with about 480-500 lead

600 is only two sessions batting.  He will certainly give the current pair a chance of making centuries and then bif bash Faf will have a tonk.   400 might prove more than enough already but no way in hell will he declare with a lead of 480.  You my friend are dreaming.  He will let his bowlers expand the cracks and continue to rough up the wicket.

A declaration at lunch leaves Pakistan 2 sessions on a day 3 pitch which potentially leaves then around 320 to get over days 4 and 5.  Agreed unlikely but he wont give them a sniff will Smith.

I reckon he'll leave PAK 550 to get which will probably be done just after lunch.  Draw highly unlikely but still a hugely outside shout if rains sweep in.

PAK cannot win this and 65 is a good value bet to lay IMHO.

still not sure why smith didn't enforce ,I know you might say he wants his bowlers fresh ,but they only bowled 29 overs , by enforcing the follow on, it takes any issue of when to declare out of the equation and also means you might not even need to bat again

Feb 2, 2013 -- 8:34PM, nicky27 wrote:

still not sure why smith didn't enforce ,I know you might say he wants his bowlers fresh ,but they only bowled 29 overs , by enforcing the follow on, it takes any issue of when to declare out of the equation and also means you might not even need to bat again

A few ideas :

1) Sponsors, crowd and TV want as much Cricket as possible
2) Gives his lads a chance at batting
3) He was hoping to get a ton in his 100th TM
4) If PAK somehow managed to get > 300 in the innings SA would have some pressure
5) PAK batting half way through the day tomorrow after being out in the field for 50 overs will be tough for them.

All these in total however wouldn't have been enough if I were Graeme Smith.  Knowing what you need to get in the 2nd innings is a far more powerful position to be in.

indeed nigel ...that is if you need to bat a second time at all

Feb 2, 2013 -- 8:52PM, nicky27 wrote:

indeed nigel ...that is if you need to bat a second time at all

Exactly!  The way they were bowling it would seem quite unlikely.  Any thoughts on why PAK are still in double figures and not > 100?  Risk of SA declaring soon?  Highest ever total on this pitch is 311!

Going to declare before lunch I reckon

when Amla reaches 100

Definitely.  Around a lead of 550.  Market finally getting it - PAK out >100.  Draw still a chance though - a lot of rain monday and tuesday now if PAK keep their heads.

declared!

as expected, I said 480-500, read above

Feb 3, 2013 -- 9:19AM, tonyf wrote:

as expected, I said 480-500, read above

eh? Amla didn't get the ton!

true, but the rest was spot on, some way from 550 and the guy who said 600

not much point posting my views as just seem to get negative comments, so bye, find me on twitter if you want

Feb 3, 2013 -- 9:52AM, tonyf wrote:

true, but the rest was spot on, some way from 550 and the guy who said 600

they declared early because of the chance of rain.

Feb 3, 2013 -- 9:54AM, tonyf wrote:

not much point posting my views as just seem to get negative comments, so bye, find me on twitter if you want

hardly negative.  Posts need challenging

well of course they declared because of rain, that was the point, challenge posts if you want but think first

Feb 3, 2013 -- 10:13AM, tonyf wrote:

well of course they declared because of rain, that was the point, challenge posts if you want but think first

yes, the point being the forecast is worse today than y'day when the declaration views were posted.

Have it your own way

as I won several hundred I don't care

SA 1.05 - seems value.  Big man Jamshed gone

Feb 3, 2013 -- 10:22AM, tonyf wrote:

Have it your own way

I'm not saying I'm right - just putting out other viewpoints.

where are the innings runs layers?

goonjim..what u think about current innings runs

Put a couple up for you

i think they won't make 480. you're welcome.

thats a gud shout..goonjim

Is the recovery going well?

anyone thinks they ll all out today?

rain dance

NB

lol

is day 5 a washout

Feb 3, 2013 -- 3:31PM, Footiefan111 wrote:

is day 5 a washout

no, forecast has since improved

fraw is impossible then

hope it rains for a day might get some market panic

nigel forcast for tomorrow is not very good in terms of heavy thundery showers currently day 5 has improved somewhat

tend to think not much downside laying saffers at mo worst case 1.06 if they start on time

rain is forecast for the afternoon ... may be too late to save pakistan ... they need to survive the new ball and the morning session .... that is a tough ask .... not much batting to come after misbah and shafiq ... but if they get through it looks like a day and half of rain ahead ...

well its meant to be heavy rain and thunderstroms all night? whats the drainage like here?

imo the rain is forcast overnight and into the morning which was endorsed by the commentators with a break early afternoon then more thundery showers late afternoon but of course time will tell

flash flood would be nice

did mariner come out of his pakistan lay king? he tends to lay the away team or outsider of three

where are you guys seeing overnight rain forecast? i am looking at the weather channel forecast and it is saying rain around 1:00pm tomorrow. Before then it is shown as cloudy?

precipitation models Raja but in this neck of the woods could be a washout or a clear day

Saffers look pretty big to me. WHY?

Highest ever 2nd innings chase was 411 and PAK are nearly halfway there but already 4 wickets down.

I've taken PAK out of the equation - they should be 100/1 - it's highly improbable they can even get close to this.

Now the weather - it's moved around a lot the last few days but currently forecast rain both days however a lot less precipitation than was forecast at the start of the game.  So I'd imagine a couple of sessions lost absolute max.

Gotta give PAK credit - they've come out and had a go but with the new ball due shortly their resistance will evaporate and I wouldn't be surprised to see it all over by tea tomorrow. (or lunch if no rain)

Weather forcast - "Chance of rain: 91%" That's Monday.

Tuesday: "Chance of rain: 79%"

dug out the 4th innings stats :

http://anccricket.webs.com/records/test/14.html

Feb 3, 2013 -- 6:56PM, lee_arama wrote:

Weather forcast - "Chance of rain: 91%" That's Monday.Tuesday: "Chance of rain: 79%"

Should be 100% - there's going to be some rain both days - question is how much and what delay it puts on the game?

Being able to move the breaks and finish late helps.

i think you are right nigel ... can't see pak chasing this down ... they have little batting left after misbah and shafiq .... rain is forecast but not till the afternoon .... pak batting may not survive long enough to be saved by rain .... the new ball is due early in the morning ....

Other factor of course is that it's going be very cloudy conditions between the rain - great for bowling.  Just needs a breakthrough from one of the set batsmen.

GAME SET AND MATCH THE MIGHTY SOUTH AFRICA
full bank bet on 1.02 , picking up some lovely risk free free money .
love backing something that CANNOT lose , so easy .

Until the heavens open and it's Noah's Ark LOL

But I'm behind you anyway... On U295.5 runs here and was having a mild sweat for a while there.

of course i am 100 % right again .

Well then... This is a nice short wait. Might well have my winnings in the bank within the half hour.

It's a shame that Steyn doesn't get the media coverage around the world he deserves, especially for someone who is on track to become the greatest fast bowler of the modern era

Certainly the best bowler in the world right now.