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My initial thoughts before further research is that Saf at around 2.80 represents value. Perth a result deck. Philander comes in for Tahir. Klienveldt is improving. Saf bowlers rested, and salivating about playing at the WACA. Aus bowlers dog tired, Siddle spent and doesnt eat meat anymore so how will he recover haha, Hilfy no good. Starc will be a factor but massive questions over the attack. Clarke is due a test where he does get a 200... Looks like Saf to me.... Thoughts...
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should be a SA win...but the weather on tuesday / the fact they only need a draw to retain number 1 ranking concern me. need a wicket before close to keep them motivated
Chance of a thunderstorm on Tuesday evening but it will be over by then.
Draw price should go out really and Aus shorten till Cowan gets out!
Great start from the aussies. I just can't see them keeping it up however earlier market price does make more sense now - it was us punters who were wrong.
SA might be happy enough to draw if it goes close to the distance, but Australia have nothing to lose and everything to gain by winning so I expect they'll be having a crack.
Warner is possibly the key - his ability to score quickly could turn the match Australia's way if he bats for long enough.
Hard to go past SA though. Australia need over 200 more than the biggest chase in 100+ years of Test cricket history.
Warner is possibly the key - his ability to score quickly could turn the match Australia's way if he bats for long enough.
Hard to go past SA though. Australia need over 200 more than the biggest chase in 100+ years of Test cricket history.
the match will never turn australia's way Anoma, only 2 possible outcomes, they could never run down 600
i have lumped on at 1.23
one of my biggest ever bets
if Australia survive 6 more sessions then I am fine with losing my cash
it is not something they would do once in every 4 or 5 attempts though
it has never been done before i dont think in any test
one of my biggest ever bets
if Australia survive 6 more sessions then I am fine with losing my cash
it is not something they would do once in every 4 or 5 attempts though
it has never been done before i dont think in any test
Dec 2, 2012 -- 11:52AM, d13phe wrote:
i have lumped on at 1.23one of my biggest ever betsif Australia survive 6 more sessions then I am fine with losing my cashit is not something they would do once in every 4 or 5 attempts thoughit has never been done before i dont think in any test
Yeah, I also think the odds are wrong and have a similar bet. I reckon it's more like :
SA 1.11
Draw 20
AUS 20
I'm in the D13 camp.
If Aussies chase this down, it'll be worth the money.I will stand and applaud.
Very hot next 2 days. No rain. Draw price insane.
If Aussies chase this down, it'll be worth the money.I will stand and applaud.
Very hot next 2 days. No rain. Draw price insane.
What is going on here then? It seems unfathomable to most punters and yet the price is most getting hammered in.
I firmly believe that if the market was "that" wrong it would move.
just a classic case of short term trade vs long term value
people exiting positions and making a short term trade on the fact Aus might go well
people exiting positions and making a short term trade on the fact Aus might go well
Agreed d13. SA look very likely to win (making them good value at 1.27), but they're also going to trade higher until wickets fall (making them good lay value too). It's the beauty of Betfair in a nutshell 
well worth keeing an eye on the BoM forecast. Perth has had unseasonal rains very recently
Like others I am happy to lose a fair wad if Australia pull this one off. I do not think they will. Its a 100/1 shot to me. The pressure as they get near (and the evidence that they are not near is overwhelming) will be huge.
There is not evidence sufficiently explicit to be safely inferred that Australia have the tools to chase this down. No side has done this let alone this side. When considering the approach of Channel 9 commentators, the notion that Australia will pull it off is understandable - but sadly a misapprehension.
It is important to consider that measuring fact is not how exciting the findings are, it is what they objectvely say. I wonder if the 2002-07 side would be capable of pulling this off. Frankly the myth is hard to entertain that a side merely comprising Clarke and Hussey can achieve this, most of the pundits expressing themselves present findings that have the status of a wild guess.
There is no credible way of arguing that 632 represents a 16/1 shot. History presents counter evidence and this side is not one of the best batting sides of all time. I have read a lot of suspiciously coincidence dependant explanations for people's claim that Australia will win this.
I would however like to be around to see it, should it happen. Records are there in sport to be broken. I just dont see the record having stood in the early 400s for 70 years being trumped by 200 runs.
Good luck all.
There is not evidence sufficiently explicit to be safely inferred that Australia have the tools to chase this down. No side has done this let alone this side. When considering the approach of Channel 9 commentators, the notion that Australia will pull it off is understandable - but sadly a misapprehension.
It is important to consider that measuring fact is not how exciting the findings are, it is what they objectvely say. I wonder if the 2002-07 side would be capable of pulling this off. Frankly the myth is hard to entertain that a side merely comprising Clarke and Hussey can achieve this, most of the pundits expressing themselves present findings that have the status of a wild guess.
There is no credible way of arguing that 632 represents a 16/1 shot. History presents counter evidence and this side is not one of the best batting sides of all time. I have read a lot of suspiciously coincidence dependant explanations for people's claim that Australia will win this.
I would however like to be around to see it, should it happen. Records are there in sport to be broken. I just dont see the record having stood in the early 400s for 70 years being trumped by 200 runs.
Good luck all.
Have to agree, a lot would need to go right for the Aussies. Warner a quick 80-100, Pup another 200, Hussey 100+ and good contributions from Cowen, Wade, Punter and Johnson. Anythings possible - you do get value for money with your shots at the WACA.
Pretty unlikely though, history says this will be notably difficult and not sure this is a team to break this sort of record.
Pretty unlikely though, history says this will be notably difficult and not sure this is a team to break this sort of record.
Yes Ted. I notice http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/perth.shtml saying chance of showers or a thunderstorm around lunch time. Ward was saying the same on Sky. However http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Western_Australia/Perth/ usually a reliable site and gives an ok Tuesday. I suppose we should have a better idea tomorrow when various sites update. Bit frustrating to have to factor this into the odds, wonder how much of it is built into the current draw price.
Draw price definitely being forced down by weather worries.
History is against Australia but I think they are a very good show here.
Perth pitches get better for batting as the test goes on. South Africa just got 570 and should have got more. They mostly got themselves out. Clarke and Hussey are in amazing form, Pontings last innings ever and Australia's batting has dominated all series apart from 1st innings this test.
Its a big target but if they bat the way they have been all series they should chase it down imo.
Perth pitches get better for batting as the test goes on. South Africa just got 570 and should have got more. They mostly got themselves out. Clarke and Hussey are in amazing form, Pontings last innings ever and Australia's batting has dominated all series apart from 1st innings this test.
Its a big target but if they bat the way they have been all series they should chase it down imo.
If they bat til Tea on Tuesday their natural scoring rate (and the quick scoring pitch) will mean they've won the match. Heavily reliant on significant contributions from Warner, Hussey and in particular Clarke to get anywhere near this though. Can't really rely on Watto and Punter these days, actually Watto has a history of not kicking on from a half century. Important to see off the first 10 overs tomorrow, ball should go soft after that and nothing really in the pitch. Aussies could easily trade 4 or 5 at some stage tomorrow.
If there was no weather worries draw would be a ridiculous price but presumably that's what's keeping it down.
If there was no weather worries draw would be a ridiculous price but presumably that's what's keeping it down.
Let's get this in perspective. Aussies will need to survive a minimum (unless serious rain) of 1,000 deliveries. It only needs 10 lapses of concentration (or 1% of all deliveries) for SA to claim the victory unless they ramp up the run rate. Odds are not 1.27 - 1.15 absolute maximum.
Only second time Aus have had to score over 600 to win test last time Bradmans first test 1928 needing 728 they were 66 all out
Teams score 600+ on roads all the time
They are playing on a road
There is no reason they cant chase it down
They are playing on a road
There is no reason they cant chase it down
agreed Lix, it is very important to make that distinction
Dec 2, 2012 -- 7:52PM, dfsdfs wrote:
much much better than a 13-1 chance imo
More chance of DFS ending their non-stops sales IMHO.
it will be tough be you still expect south africa to win this with 180 overs remaining in the match
I think we all expect SA to win and Aus should be longer.
The record scores batting last to win are not one wicket victories. The reason they have chased down 400 is that the pitches have still been fantastic on day 5. The situation here is that the pitch is still good on day 4. 10 more overs and the ball will stop seaming. Aus have aggressive batsmen at the top who could easily score 350 in a day on a true pitch, fast outfield and attacking fields. 400 on the board at the end on day 4 will have everyone spooked. That is the reason Aus are so short.
It could be fascinating and I'd suggest anyone wanting to lump on SA would be best served waiting a couple of sessions you might see 1.5 or more assuming Cowan doesn't get out first ball!
The record scores batting last to win are not one wicket victories. The reason they have chased down 400 is that the pitches have still been fantastic on day 5. The situation here is that the pitch is still good on day 4. 10 more overs and the ball will stop seaming. Aus have aggressive batsmen at the top who could easily score 350 in a day on a true pitch, fast outfield and attacking fields. 400 on the board at the end on day 4 will have everyone spooked. That is the reason Aus are so short.
It could be fascinating and I'd suggest anyone wanting to lump on SA would be best served waiting a couple of sessions you might see 1.5 or more assuming Cowan doesn't get out first ball!
First hour very important... Pitch is playing well Aus 0- at drinks market will start to overreact. ny rain in Perth usually pretty quick cant see much play lost... Either way if Aus gets thru first hour could be some really good trading opps.
As Lix posted earlier will only need one poor session from aussies and it's done. A couple of loose balls.
Only way aussies can win is everything goes for them - certainly not impossible - just highly unlikely.
Convinced myself and loaded up even further - Gulp! Going to be nerve wracking looking at the Cricinfo app on phone when the alarm goes off at 7am! Good luck all!
Only way aussies can win is everything goes for them - certainly not impossible - just highly unlikely.
Convinced myself and loaded up even further - Gulp! Going to be nerve wracking looking at the Cricinfo app on phone when the alarm goes off at 7am! Good luck all!
just hoping for no wickets in 1st hour tomorrow then will really make hay out of my 1.2 lay hoping for a 1.5 bounce for a nice little 4 figure green all round 
1.24 on South Africa is over the odds for me, was expecting somewhere 1.11 or lower for Saffers at this point. BUt with 2 sunny days in Perth, Lay of the Draw at 8.00's is a decent bet for me. Cant remember the last time a test side bat 2 days consecutively at the WACA
Also 3.65 for the Test Match to End Day 4- Evening session looks a decent odds to me...
Australia need 592 runs in around 180 overs with 10 wickets in hand
Morning sessions runs anyone? I think line should be around Under 96.5 V Over 96.5 runs
Always a nightmare with Warner session runs WCE....
Not taking a chance with Perth weather on Tuesday...will lay Aus if they trade below $7.
630 runs against the top three paceman/seamers in the world...rain around tomorrow...no thanks
No doubt its a road but Aus bats minus Clarke Huss. are average
Not taking a chance with Perth weather on Tuesday...will lay Aus if they trade below $7.
630 runs against the top three paceman/seamers in the world...rain around tomorrow...no thanks
No doubt its a road but Aus bats minus Clarke Huss. are average
im in Perth, today is an absolute belter of a day.The thing with the rain here, is it comes and then it goes...usually doesnt hover around for too long. Only a 10% chance of precipitation tommorow late afternoon (around 3pm onwards)
Even if it rained tommorow, the most overs I reckon could be lost is around 25 overs....expect at least 155 of those 180 overs to be bowled
What odds do people have the match ending today?
Id have it around Game Ends 4th Day (37.5%) V Game Ends 5th Day (62.5%)
I'd have it more like 1.4 the game goes to a 5th day based on saffers 3rd inns and how easy batting looked
anyway im back to the NBA, catch u boys later............be back after the Lakers V Orlando game
superb from morkel.
really really great bowling on a good deck
really really great bowling on a good deck
nice to see South Africa give Ponting a guard of honour.........thanks for the memories Punter
Is it worth bottling out and greening up on the draw? 
Never really thought about how ridiculous Bradman's average is.
Not gonna be a draw. The extra bounce here means things will happen be it runs or wickets. Never as dead a track as Adelaide was.
never laugh at that myself - cant even look at replays
the way he reached for the bottom of his box immediately after getting hit would suggest something got trapped.
Mark Taylor reckons Usman Khawjha should take punters spot
highest scorer starc what the highest odds on that
payday a day early 
a very pleasing result to wake up to!
well done South Africa.
a very pleasing result to wake up to!
well done South Africa.
Dec 3, 2012 -- 8:34AM, Footiefan111 wrote:
highest scorer starc what the highest odds on that
ha ha - yeah that cost me a tenner!
and so ends another wonderful test series, more like a boxing match as always with SA Aus. Punter bows out and today is the day we cast to one side his undignified remarks to Javagal Srinath (who was only enquiring if he was ok) in 99 or Nottingham in 05 or Melbourne in 2010. Today is the day we remember a superb competitor who went on maybe a season too long. Wish him well though.
Not boasting but today was a rare vanilla betfair day for me as I went uncomfortably heavy on SAF. I wonder how many people like the Tests down under for the "walk the dog" gamble - I never seem to do as well in home Tests, Im sure i get too bogged down in the detail within sessions. Made four months worth of bunce. Anyway enough of the bragging but i do fess up when i **** up.
Well done to FAF who was an unlikely saviour and wore the hell out of Siddle & Co at Adelaide which had a bearing on the 3rd as well as the second Test. My abiding memory of the series though was Kallis batting in the 2nd Test at 9 with freedom, t'was a joy to watch.
See you for the Sri Lanka series - should be some good opps
Not boasting but today was a rare vanilla betfair day for me as I went uncomfortably heavy on SAF. I wonder how many people like the Tests down under for the "walk the dog" gamble - I never seem to do as well in home Tests, Im sure i get too bogged down in the detail within sessions. Made four months worth of bunce. Anyway enough of the bragging but i do fess up when i **** up.
Well done to FAF who was an unlikely saviour and wore the hell out of Siddle & Co at Adelaide which had a bearing on the 3rd as well as the second Test. My abiding memory of the series though was Kallis batting in the 2nd Test at 9 with freedom, t'was a joy to watch.
See you for the Sri Lanka series - should be some good opps
Great Series. Financially a very good series too, haha. Hopefully Aus Sl will provide some great opportunities as well.
Dec 4, 2012 -- 12:16AM, OzBattla wrote:
Great Series. Financially a very good series too, haha. Hopefully Aus Sl will provide some great opportunities as well.
Out of interest was there any rain in Perth today?
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