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Didnt see a thread for this game..so here goes.
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9 an over is never easy to chase..anything is possible but under lights it should be a little difficult to chase. odds should be 1.4/1.45.
ball is moving a bit n there is some help for slow bowlers...lancs have gud bowling attack for this conditions
The bowling in these games is usually utter filth. More full tosses and wide balls than your average Prem League match.
it is certainly not going to be an easy chase but looking at the batting line up of notts, one can say that it is going to go all the way till the last ball having both team still in the game.
the rain at present is about how heavy its been for the last 90 mins or so near derby
if this is reduced to 10 overs or less Notts will be 1.50 to win this game. They are huge value currently
according to my calculations (almost certainly wrong) off 10 overs they will require 104. With 10 wickets in hand an absolute doddle.
think they said earlier if they play 5 overs they need 39
nothing is an absolute doddle in T20 in my experience.
yes i haven't got a DL right yet so no surprise i'm completely wrong
played 1 and have 7 runs so need 42 of 4 overs according to BBC radio Lancashire
how could they possibly need just 39 from 5 overs?
but that's if called off after 5 overs. Considerably higher if able to loe 9 wicket in the chase
Take the Lancashire score, divide by 20 multiply by the number of overs and add a bit, probably.
radar suggests it will start again very soon.
If all 20overs are available then Notts just need to be 35 for zero by end of 5overs to be at par but as the overs gets reduced the runs per over will increase.
it won't stop raining, then restart, if they come on again, theyll finish whatever overs are left.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0.0 1 2 5 8 12 19 30 45 66 87
0.1 2 4 6 9 14 20 30 46 66 87
0.2 3 5 7 10 15 21 31 46 66 87
0.3 5 6 8 12 16 22 32 46 66 87
0.4 6 8 10 13 17 23 33 47 66 87
0.5 8 9 11 14 18 24 33 47 66 87
1.0 9 11 13 15 19 25 34 48 66 87
0.0 1 2 5 8 12 19 30 45 66 87
0.1 2 4 6 9 14 20 30 46 66 87
0.2 3 5 7 10 15 21 31 46 66 87
0.3 5 6 8 12 16 22 32 46 66 87
0.4 6 8 10 13 17 23 33 47 66 87
0.5 8 9 11 14 18 24 33 47 66 87
1.0 9 11 13 15 19 25 34 48 66 87
Get on bbc radio Lancashire folks.. Chaka Khan on now.. bloody hell
It's earlier than 9.25pm. Need 20 minutes to get the covers off so 15mins or so to get it going.
odds on Completed Match suggests that it is not going to start :(
its drifting.... rain might have just eased out and the match may start in sometime :)
Jul 3, 2012 -- 9:02PM, I win every time! wrote:
someone just hoovered up lol
ye bloody hell lol
42 off 4 is a tough ask even with 10 overs!! i am on notts but not too sure here.
Rain has stopped. Target seems to be 5 more overs and 49runs to get.
Got to fancy Notts. All 10 wkts, 4 overs, will have a big swing at every ball. 10/over should be no probs.
ok, i might be wrong. Anyways, getting 42 off 4 overs having 10wickets in hand is easy provide each bowler gets only 1 over to bowl
ok, i might be wrong. Anyways, getting 42 off 4 overs having 10wickets in hand is easy provided each bowler gets only 1 over to bowl
Some are Gonna be Shafted by D/L at Nottingham tonight! What a Flippin X Factor in cricket betting!
Y is ccm still holding price surely they don't come off here
BRUTAL bowling by this **** Arafat. Lost the game for Lancs
Not just the bowling, D/L itself ruins cricket.
Srich - I'm not referring to D/L. Lancs had a chance until that plonker bowled
I dont think they did. You have 10 wickets available, you hit the boundaries easily. D/L has never taken enough account of wickets in hand.
D/L never seems to set a fair score.
All over completed match to get out unscathed, this better finish
All over completed match to get out unscathed, this better finish
If I were to devise a system, it would be a fluctuating required total based on wickets down.
Or the team batting should have maybe 3 wickets for what is a slog
which is why is it a futile system, devised by two buffoons, one of whom takes exception to any criticism of it.
its all over. luckily for the first time i was on a DL favoring side otherwise usually i ended up on the wrong side and lost it
It's a joke all they need to do is slog. They don't have to build an innings, surely it should be looked at.
Well least im out unscathed Of this joke of a match
Well least im out unscathed Of this joke of a match
yea lancashire got a very challenging score of 178 and D/L made a joke of it.
I'm not complaining. Free money on completed match! Didn't even need to bet on the game
the duckworth lewis method is effective and fair, apart from at these extremes where it evidently requires tweaking.
to call it futile is the sign of a moron.
to call it futile is the sign of a moron.
I think authorities are under pressure to complete matches due to gate receipts and keeping crowd interested/coming back
Yeah, D/L still favours the batting team in really reduced chases.
Lancs were odds on before the rain and when they came back on were 2.7. Needs adjusting when reduced to a slog, more in favour of the bowling side.
Lancs were odds on before the rain and when they came back on were 2.7. Needs adjusting when reduced to a slog, more in favour of the bowling side.
Duckworth and Lewis should be shot!! Should never be used for 20/20
a really great way to actually work this stuff out would be to look at the betfair odds across a season to see when it gets out of kilter.
the problem with D/L for T20s for very short run chases is as follows:
top order batsman have a much greater scoring potential than those lower down the order.
this is factored in the resources calculation used by D/L but as the overs remaining gets down to less than 7 or 8 the difference in remaining resource, based on the remaining wickets becomes smaller and smaller and the resource remaining approaches a function solely of overs remaining, especially so when there are less than 7 wickets down.
this is an invalid assumption to make for higher run rates, which is of course happens far more often in t20s than ODIs.
there is a gigantic difference between expecting 5,6,7 to get 11+ an over, and expecting 1,2,3 to get it, i.e. there has to be a much greater weighting for remaining wickets in calculating remaining resource for T20s when the chase is shorter than 7/8 overs.
top order batsman have a much greater scoring potential than those lower down the order.
this is factored in the resources calculation used by D/L but as the overs remaining gets down to less than 7 or 8 the difference in remaining resource, based on the remaining wickets becomes smaller and smaller and the resource remaining approaches a function solely of overs remaining, especially so when there are less than 7 wickets down.
this is an invalid assumption to make for higher run rates, which is of course happens far more often in t20s than ODIs.
there is a gigantic difference between expecting 5,6,7 to get 11+ an over, and expecting 1,2,3 to get it, i.e. there has to be a much greater weighting for remaining wickets in calculating remaining resource for T20s when the chase is shorter than 7/8 overs.
nailed it DStyle. Works well for 50 over cricket, not T20
short game didnt help lancs
that said reckon in those conditions notts would have fancied chasing 178
that said reckon in those conditions notts would have fancied chasing 178
definitely easier though SY - as the market movement showed.
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