Olympics 2012
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30 Jul 12
21:01
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Mens
Before looking at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational a bit of info on the Olympics Mens marathon bet which I put up on Twitter earlier today. I think the mens marathon will probably be contended by the three Kenyans (no shock there!) but I have gone for the outsider of the three - Emmanuel Mutai.
The favourite and justifiably so is Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich who I had a big bet on to win the London marathon earlier this year and duly obliged. That made it four straight marathon wins after being 3rd on his debut and I really wouldn't want to put people off betting him but to me his price is about right and he has been downplaying his chances a bit by saying he might be too tall for the tricky turning course.
Abel Kirui has won the last two World Championship marathons but apart from those wins he actually hasn't got the best record in big city marathons. The second favourite is 21 year old Ethiopian Ayele Abshero who made his marathon debut in January and produced the fastest ever time for a debutaant. However I think he will find the course very different and will lack a bit of experience for this.
Emmanuel Mutai is a cracking each way bet in my opinion just by looking at his performances over the last three years. In 2009 he was 4th in London and 2nd in the World Champs, 2010 2nd London and 2nd New York, 2011 1st London and 2nd New York. That is incredibly consistent running but the reason he is such a big price is that he was 7th in London this year but there is a simple explanantion for this (as I pointed out at the time) - he was lucky to run at all in April as a month before he had a bout of typhoid. He only actually ran to qualify for the Olympics and did actually miss out on selection but Moses Mosop pulled out injured and Mutai was brought in to replace him. I have managed to get on Betfair at around 13/14 to win £1k and Betfred for the podium - @ 12/5. Any price around 8/9/10 e/w is too big.
Womens (put this up a while ago)
I have found a runner in the Womens Marathon who seems to have been overlooked. Mary Keitany is a justifiable short priced favourite - she made her debut in the 2010 New York marathon alongside American Shalane Flanagan and the American beat her by twenty seconds finishing 2nd to Keitanys 3rd. Flanagan has only run one marathon since when breaking the course record and winning the US Olympic trial in Houston earlier this year. Reading all her interviews she has clearly geared up for this event whereas so many marathon runners peak for the big money events. She would dearly love to improve on her bronze medal in the 10k from the 2008 Olympics and I think she is the dark horse in the field. Whilst she doesn't have the fast times of the favourites she hasn't run on the fast courses and I think the course will not be conducive to really fast times making those at the head of the market particularly vulnerable. I backed Flanagan @ 25/1 and 20/1 last week but 14/16 e/w is still a good price.
Before looking at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational a bit of info on the Olympics Mens marathon bet which I put up on Twitter earlier today. I think the mens marathon will probably be contended by the three Kenyans (no shock there!) but I have gone for the outsider of the three - Emmanuel Mutai.
The favourite and justifiably so is Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich who I had a big bet on to win the London marathon earlier this year and duly obliged. That made it four straight marathon wins after being 3rd on his debut and I really wouldn't want to put people off betting him but to me his price is about right and he has been downplaying his chances a bit by saying he might be too tall for the tricky turning course.
Abel Kirui has won the last two World Championship marathons but apart from those wins he actually hasn't got the best record in big city marathons. The second favourite is 21 year old Ethiopian Ayele Abshero who made his marathon debut in January and produced the fastest ever time for a debutaant. However I think he will find the course very different and will lack a bit of experience for this.
Emmanuel Mutai is a cracking each way bet in my opinion just by looking at his performances over the last three years. In 2009 he was 4th in London and 2nd in the World Champs, 2010 2nd London and 2nd New York, 2011 1st London and 2nd New York. That is incredibly consistent running but the reason he is such a big price is that he was 7th in London this year but there is a simple explanantion for this (as I pointed out at the time) - he was lucky to run at all in April as a month before he had a bout of typhoid. He only actually ran to qualify for the Olympics and did actually miss out on selection but Moses Mosop pulled out injured and Mutai was brought in to replace him. I have managed to get on Betfair at around 13/14 to win £1k and Betfred for the podium - @ 12/5. Any price around 8/9/10 e/w is too big.
Womens (put this up a while ago)
I have found a runner in the Womens Marathon who seems to have been overlooked. Mary Keitany is a justifiable short priced favourite - she made her debut in the 2010 New York marathon alongside American Shalane Flanagan and the American beat her by twenty seconds finishing 2nd to Keitanys 3rd. Flanagan has only run one marathon since when breaking the course record and winning the US Olympic trial in Houston earlier this year. Reading all her interviews she has clearly geared up for this event whereas so many marathon runners peak for the big money events. She would dearly love to improve on her bronze medal in the 10k from the 2008 Olympics and I think she is the dark horse in the field. Whilst she doesn't have the fast times of the favourites she hasn't run on the fast courses and I think the course will not be conducive to really fast times making those at the head of the market particularly vulnerable. I backed Flanagan @ 25/1 and 20/1 last week but 14/16 e/w is still a good price.
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I have added to Flanagan in the womens marathon that takes place tomorrow in the shape of Kenyan second string Edna Kiplagat who I think is a cracking each way bet at around 8/1. Basically her form over the last few years is as follows - 2010 won Los Angeles won New York (beating debutants Flanagan and Keitany), 2011 3rd London 1st World Championships then this year in London she was 2nd. On a tricky course I really do find it difficult to see her out of the top three.
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Re Edna Kiplagat
Apart from her debut in 2005 she has never been out of the top 3 in a marathon. Small win bet and larger place bet for me on Edna. |
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The Kenyans have been struggling with the exception of the awesome Rudisha and I think it is sensible to get an Ethiopian on side. Abshero could really be anything and is way too short based on one fast race at the distance and I would rather go for the experienced Getu Feleke who reminds me a lot of Gelana who won the womans race last week, 14/1 or 16/1 each way seems a reasonable price.
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The winner will be one of the Kenyans, one of the Ethiopians or Samuel Tsegay from Eritrea. At one point last week, you could pretty much Dutch those seven for a profit. If I was to go for one, I'd go for Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich.
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After Wanjiru changed the way Olympic marathons are run in 2008, we won't see a tactical race won in 2:10+ like usual. The pace wii be rapid with a halfway split of 63/64 mins and a winning time of c.2:07
That counts out all but the East Africans. I simply don't think Kirui is fast enough & Mutai is inconsistent. Abshero won in Dubai in 2:04 but that course is set up for world records (pancake flat, 13 miles straight out, 13 miles back on the other side of the road). He won't break 2:09 here. Kipsang looked awesome in Frankfurt where he missed the WR by 4s & again in London when winning. He's a strong front runner and will trade odds on during the race. He's my tip. |
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1st 5k - 15:23
2nd 5k - 15.24 3rd 5k - 14.11 Jeez!! |
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And now he's odds on. Time to cash in.
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Cram should get a BF account.He moved the market plenty last night when he said Mo looked in trouble and again now with Kipsang.
Of course he may already have one. |
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It's potentially easy to make money out of commentators. You can try and trade the movements they create from what they say, or alternatively, if you disagree, get the value by the resulting overreactions.
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Could be another great tip from Steven Downes in RP, Kirui got every chance and tipped up at 11/2.
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Still think Kipsang wins. 1/2 odds Kirui is crazy.
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Men / Marathon / Gold Medal Winner
Stephen Kiprotich Back 21474867855 12-Aug-12 12:48 65 Men / Marathon / Gold Medal Winner Stephen Kiprotich Back 21474938409 12-Aug-12 12:51 48 Now 1.3 3 mins later |
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Stephen Kiprotich in from 75 to odds on within a couple of kms.
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1.1 now - some people getting smashed
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Amazing turnaround this. Kipsang kicked and looked good and then the Ugandan came from nowhere. This would have caught a lot of people out.
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Poppydog - that is great punting. Didn't think he had a chance. tbh I'd barely heard of him before the race.
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Gone too soon?
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I don't think so.
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Would have been nice to have a slip with 'Kiprotich' on it.
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Though I'm not backing at 1.02.
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With this finish, you have to think it was tactical when he dropped off the pace.
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Was it the camera angle or did kiraur pull the lead back to about 30 metres a few kms ago. Baced Kirau at 5/1 at that stage and then next pictures show the leader a long way infront again.
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some pre race layers got burnt big here
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Well I predicted the wrong Kiprotich!
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Aaaw happy scenes
 Feeling really sad that all this will be over by tomorrow  |
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phil jones, doh!
asked such a personal question it left the poor bloke dumbstruck what an idiot |
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Just what I thought Judo.
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Hope someone helped that Ugandan who had collapsed, plenty standing around gawping but couldn't see anyone helping.
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Gave the excuse it was lost in translation.
Don't think so |
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started too late, temperature too high, runners finishing distressed
they normally have the marathon very early to benefit the runners not the crowds and TV |
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I was surprised they both started at 11.
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didn't expect such a fine weather, you can't blame them
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not good to see athletes in such a distressed state though
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All 3 Ethiopians failed to finish. Selectors screwed up by just picking the 3 quickest based on the Dubai race in January.
Gebrselassie should be furious. He would have fought a better fight you feel. |