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Coronavirus: Number of deaths 'could have been halved if lockdown introduced a week earlier'
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-number-of-deaths-could-have-been-halved-if-lockdown-introduced-a-week-earlier-12004222
Coronavirus deaths could have been reduced "by at least half" if the UK had gone into lockdown a week earlier, one of government's former key advisers has told MPs.
Professor Neil Ferguson, of London's Imperial College, said he believed the right decisions were taken by ministers over COVID-19 but questioned whether they were taken at the right time.
He told the House of Commons science committee of MPs: "The epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced.
"So, had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have reduced the final toll by at least a half.
"Whilst I think the measures, given what we knew about this virus then in terms of its transmission and its lethality, were warranted - I wouldn't second-guess them at this point - certainly had we introduced them earlier, we would have seen many fewer deaths."
Prof Ferguson said he estimated that the number of deaths directly caused by coronavirus would be more than 50,000, meaning 25,000 lives could have been saved by going into lockdown a week earlier.
In March, Prof Ferguson estimated that the pandemic would cause at most 20,000 deaths.
He told MPs that scientists had "underestimated how far into the epidemic this country was" in March.
He also said government advisers did not anticipate how high deaths in care homes would be, as they acted on the assumption that residents would be shielded.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced lockdown measures on March 23.
Prof Ferguson played a leading role in advising the government during the early stages of the pandemic, before being forced to leave the scientific advisory group SAGE after being caught breaking lockdown rules.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-number-of-deaths-could-have-been-halved-if-lockdown-introduced-a-week-earlier-12004222
Coronavirus deaths could have been reduced "by at least half" if the UK had gone into lockdown a week earlier, one of government's former key advisers has told MPs.
Professor Neil Ferguson, of London's Imperial College, said he believed the right decisions were taken by ministers over COVID-19 but questioned whether they were taken at the right time.
He told the House of Commons science committee of MPs: "The epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced.
"So, had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have reduced the final toll by at least a half.
"Whilst I think the measures, given what we knew about this virus then in terms of its transmission and its lethality, were warranted - I wouldn't second-guess them at this point - certainly had we introduced them earlier, we would have seen many fewer deaths."
Prof Ferguson said he estimated that the number of deaths directly caused by coronavirus would be more than 50,000, meaning 25,000 lives could have been saved by going into lockdown a week earlier.
In March, Prof Ferguson estimated that the pandemic would cause at most 20,000 deaths.
He told MPs that scientists had "underestimated how far into the epidemic this country was" in March.
He also said government advisers did not anticipate how high deaths in care homes would be, as they acted on the assumption that residents would be shielded.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced lockdown measures on March 23.
Prof Ferguson played a leading role in advising the government during the early stages of the pandemic, before being forced to leave the scientific advisory group SAGE after being caught breaking lockdown rules.
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Replies: 87
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Guaranteed to come up in the daily briefing just about to start .....
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Witty and Valance alongside Johnson.
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Err its Ferguson the man who is often out by two decimal places. Anyway this is a long game and we may end up doing better than other countries in the long term. Only a fool would attempt to rate countries efforts at present.
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doris biggest problem is in 4 years time,he didn't want to be on show this GE,by next GE he,ll be needing William hague,s baseball cap,doris doesn't look like been the type to embrace a number 1 or 2,like his oven ready Brexit deal there,s nothing underneath
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He just wanted to post the bit in bold type, yet again. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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There was another Professor yesterday suggesting lockdown may have cost 600,000 lives. Choose your expert that suits your agenda but its all just opinion.
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Better just to look at the facts about those who have died from it ( or rather with it which means our figures are somewhat overstated). That tells you clearly that this is a nothing illness for most and its time we just got on with things and let the vulnerable isolate if they choose so.
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He's just announced a load of stuff that everybody already knew...
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Johnson is an idiot prattling on about bubbles that most of us have been doing for months.
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Shhh, don't tell him dotch..
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we already knew it but todays numbers 1st time you can really see most deaths happening outside of hospitals
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Ferguson still commenting. Unbelievable given all the mistakes he has made.
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After he was shown up at pmqs again
BBC laura was spinning for tories about a raft of new annoucements at 5pm Is that it ffs |
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Indeed. Imperial College kept him on also.
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Does anyone know someone who dosent live with their partner who took any notice of the lockdown rules for more than 2 or 3 days. These questions cant be from real people can they? This is just all total rubbish.
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He was following his instinct.
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Boris asked now
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I do think Dorris Day’s (
 ) are numbered.If the scheming Mp’s don’t knife him on the altar of ambition, the Suits will get him for turning to socialism or Industry will get him for doing them up the Khyber Imho he is gawn and Sushi Bumcrack is the favourite to replace him. |
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Aye, Johnson will be regretting handing the keys to No.11 to Little Rishi
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Even reached the point now where schools not certain to be open in September. A total **** joke this country is.Run by idiots for the short term benefit of cowards and what a price the younger generation are going to pay. Shameful.
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Ferguson's model given way too much power by SAGE. His model was nonsense. Check the code. Oh sorry you cannot because he refused to publish the source code.
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Disgraceful question misquoting the Swedish guy.
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Very fond of whacking moles, isn't he.
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What do you do if you want to see your pardnt and your partners parent
Do I have to chose one to include in my bubble Or can I declare my dad as an optician and get an eye test on route to mother in laws? |
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Parent
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ffs when are the Barbers opening again and where is Boris getting his haircut?
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No question yet on advise for BLM protestors.
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Taxi for Johnson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KG3wSRrOp8g |
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That wasn't very nice.
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floundering i think is the word
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schools have gone from 1st june to "hopefully" september. you can tell in his voice he is "gone".totally at sea.
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