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Coronavirus: Number of deaths 'could have been halved if lockdown introduced a week earlier'
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-number-of-deaths-could-have-been-halved-if-lockdown-introduced-a-week-earlier-12004222
Coronavirus deaths could have been reduced "by at least half" if the UK had gone into lockdown a week earlier, one of government's former key advisers has told MPs.
Professor Neil Ferguson, of London's Imperial College, said he believed the right decisions were taken by ministers over COVID-19 but questioned whether they were taken at the right time.
He told the House of Commons science committee of MPs: "The epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced.
"So, had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have reduced the final toll by at least a half.
"Whilst I think the measures, given what we knew about this virus then in terms of its transmission and its lethality, were warranted - I wouldn't second-guess them at this point - certainly had we introduced them earlier, we would have seen many fewer deaths."
Prof Ferguson said he estimated that the number of deaths directly caused by coronavirus would be more than 50,000, meaning 25,000 lives could have been saved by going into lockdown a week earlier.
In March, Prof Ferguson estimated that the pandemic would cause at most 20,000 deaths.
He told MPs that scientists had "underestimated how far into the epidemic this country was" in March.
He also said government advisers did not anticipate how high deaths in care homes would be, as they acted on the assumption that residents would be shielded.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced lockdown measures on March 23.
Prof Ferguson played a leading role in advising the government during the early stages of the pandemic, before being forced to leave the scientific advisory group SAGE after being caught breaking lockdown rules.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-number-of-deaths-could-have-been-halved-if-lockdown-introduced-a-week-earlier-12004222
Coronavirus deaths could have been reduced "by at least half" if the UK had gone into lockdown a week earlier, one of government's former key advisers has told MPs.
Professor Neil Ferguson, of London's Imperial College, said he believed the right decisions were taken by ministers over COVID-19 but questioned whether they were taken at the right time.
He told the House of Commons science committee of MPs: "The epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced.
"So, had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have reduced the final toll by at least a half.
"Whilst I think the measures, given what we knew about this virus then in terms of its transmission and its lethality, were warranted - I wouldn't second-guess them at this point - certainly had we introduced them earlier, we would have seen many fewer deaths."
Prof Ferguson said he estimated that the number of deaths directly caused by coronavirus would be more than 50,000, meaning 25,000 lives could have been saved by going into lockdown a week earlier.
In March, Prof Ferguson estimated that the pandemic would cause at most 20,000 deaths.
He told MPs that scientists had "underestimated how far into the epidemic this country was" in March.
He also said government advisers did not anticipate how high deaths in care homes would be, as they acted on the assumption that residents would be shielded.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced lockdown measures on March 23.
Prof Ferguson played a leading role in advising the government during the early stages of the pandemic, before being forced to leave the scientific advisory group SAGE after being caught breaking lockdown rules.
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Guaranteed to come up in the daily briefing just about to start .....
Err its Ferguson the man who is often out by two decimal places. Anyway this is a long game and we may end up doing better than other countries in the long term. Only a fool would attempt to rate countries efforts at present.
doris biggest problem is in 4 years time,he didn't want to be on show this GE,by next GE he,ll be needing William hague,s baseball cap,doris doesn't look like been the type to embrace a number 1 or 2,like his oven ready Brexit deal there,s nothing underneath
He just wanted to post the bit in bold type, yet again. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
There was another Professor yesterday suggesting lockdown may have cost 600,000 lives. Choose your expert that suits your agenda but its all just opinion.
Jun 10, 2020 -- 5:01PM, Dotchinite wrote:
Err its Ferguson the man who is often out by two decimal places. Anyway this is a long game and we may end up doing better than other countries in the long term. Only a fool would attempt to rate countries efforts at present.
I can't help but wonder if Ferguson advised Doris. And did Doris take his advice?
Jun 10, 2020 -- 5:02PM, Dotchinite wrote:
There was another Professor yesterday suggesting lockdown may have cost 600,000 lives. Choose your expert that suits your agenda but its all just opinion.
Indeed Dotch, more expert opinions than you can shake a stick at and they can't all be right.
Jun 10, 2020 -- 5:02PM, Dotchinite wrote:
There was another Professor yesterday suggesting lockdown may have cost 600,000 lives. Choose your expert that suits your agenda but its all just opinion.
That's a lot of deaths.
Better just to look at the facts about those who have died from it ( or rather with it which means our figures are somewhat overstated). That tells you clearly that this is a nothing illness for most and its time we just got on with things and let the vulnerable isolate if they choose so.
He's just announced a load of stuff that everybody already knew...
Johnson is an idiot prattling on about bubbles that most of us have been doing for months.
we already knew it but todays numbers 1st time you can really see most deaths happening outside of hospitals
Jun 10, 2020 -- 5:15PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:
He's just announced a load of stuff that everybody already knew...
Dressing up re-announcements as new announcements is a feature of this administration
Ferguson still commenting. Unbelievable given all the mistakes he has made.
After he was shown up at pmqs again
BBC laura was spinning for tories about a raft of new annoucements at 5pm
Is that it
ffs
BBC laura was spinning for tories about a raft of new annoucements at 5pm
Is that it
ffs
Jun 10, 2020 -- 5:29PM, InsiderTrader wrote:
Ferguson still commenting. Unbelievable given all the mistakes he has made.
He was invited to attend in front of the select committee
Does anyone know someone who dosent live with their partner who took any notice of the lockdown rules for more than 2 or 3 days. These questions cant be from real people can they? This is just all total rubbish.
I do think Dorris Day’s ( 
) are numbered.
If the scheming Mp’s don’t knife him on the altar of ambition, the Suits will get him for turning to socialism or Industry will get him for doing them up the Khyber
Imho he is gawn and Sushi Bumcrack is the favourite to replace him.
) are numbered.If the scheming Mp’s don’t knife him on the altar of ambition, the Suits will get him for turning to socialism or Industry will get him for doing them up the Khyber
Imho he is gawn and Sushi Bumcrack is the favourite to replace him.
Aye, Johnson will be regretting handing the keys to No.11 to Little Rishi
Even reached the point now where schools not certain to be open in September. A total **** joke this country is.Run by idiots for the short term benefit of cowards and what a price the younger generation are going to pay. Shameful.
Ferguson's model given way too much power by SAGE. His model was nonsense. Check the code. Oh sorry you cannot because he refused to publish the source code.
Jun 10, 2020 -- 5:41PM, InsiderTrader wrote:
Ferguson's model given way too much power by SAGE. His model was nonsense. Check the code. Oh sorry you cannot because he refused to publish the source code.
There were two models, both produced similar results.
The Times article that you refused to acknowledge detailed them.
Jun 10, 2020 -- 5:42PM, InsiderTrader wrote:
Disgraceful question misquoting the Swedish guy.
Aren't you, on occasion, guilty of misquoting 
Jun 10, 2020 -- 5:46PM, Angoose wrote:
Jun 10, 2020 -- 4:42PM, InsiderTrader wrote:Disgraceful question misquoting the Swedish guy.Aren't you, on occasion, guilty of misquoting
Tegnell has since clarified his position. Remember you pal Ferguson said Sweden achieved the same as the UK without the need for lockdown. Kids in Sweden not missed a day of school. No last generation there.
What do you do if you want to see your pardnt and your partners parent
Do I have to chose one to include in my bubble
Or can I declare my dad as an optician and get an eye test on route to mother in laws?
Do I have to chose one to include in my bubble
Or can I declare my dad as an optician and get an eye test on route to mother in laws?
ffs when are the Barbers opening again and where is Boris getting his haircut?
Taxi for Johnson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KG3wSRrOp8g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KG3wSRrOp8g
schools have gone from 1st june to "hopefully" september. you can tell in his voice he is "gone".totally at sea.
No one was going to send theor kids anyway,people have more sense..
More chance of kids getting run over by a submarine than getting killed by covid.
Maybe cis they keep their kids away from submarines, and don't encourage them to
go out in lightning stormd
go out in lightning stormd
yhtl. I think saddo means that all the evidence shows kids have virtually zero risk of dying from covid if you look at the facts. Only a moron would keep his children away from school.
The tories got rumbled,no herd immunity ripping through the schools,,,to take home tpo parents and grandparents..
And we're still waiting for Sir Keira to lay out his ideas for helping the nation. The empty suit is too busy shouting from the sidelines... "Your fault, your fault, your fault" and then silence.
There are a few folk worried about catching corona from their kids,
Even if only a few kids have died from corona virus
Government don't seem to offer guarantees it won't happen
Schools in other countries suggest they are points of spreading infection.
Wouldn't be calling folks morons under those circumstances
Even if only a few kids have died from corona virus
Government don't seem to offer guarantees it won't happen
Schools in other countries suggest they are points of spreading infection.
Wouldn't be calling folks morons under those circumstances
Still no announcements on eye tests
Funny that
Funny that
Worst of all scenarios now,5/6k catching it daily,still level 4(haha they "lost" that in the dailys), not safe.Having to push a bit now just because a lot of Europe are able to operate safely.
Jun 10, 2020 -- 8:19PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:
There are a few folk worried about catching corona from their kids, Even if only a few kids have died from corona virus Government don't seem to offer guarantees it won't happenSchools in other countries suggest they are points of spreading infection. Wouldn't be calling folks morons under those circumstances
Government don't seem to offer guarantees it won't happen
Everything in life has a risk.
Chance of under 18 dying very remote. Last time I checked it was 12 in the UK.
Passing it on... could happen. If you are extremely vulnerable family can choose. But dont lose a generation of kids for the sake of it.
They are much more likely to pass on flu in the flu season but no one worries.
Norway says was a mistake to shut schools. Will not do this in phase 2.
Kids missing 6 months of schooling is tragic. Absolutely tragic.
Kids missing 6 months of schooling is tragic. Absolutely tragic.
After 3 months of this nonsense most people dont seem aware that this is a mild illness for all bar the very old or the already dying. The idea that kids might take it home to the parents shouldnt really worry anyone unless they have a serious illness. For most parents of school aged children this is still a nothing illness.
I really dont get how so many supposedly intelligent people have got so scared about this that they are prepared to cause devastation to the economy and their own kids futures. We really do need to a get a grip here.
I really dont get how so many supposedly intelligent people have got so scared about this that they are prepared to cause devastation to the economy and their own kids futures. We really do need to a get a grip here.
Wasn't Boris at deaths door almost,55 and a bit fat but a tennis player.
put the kids in the commons 100,s of rooms and the mp,s in a school hall
lapsy. All anyone needs to do is look at the official stats which show you that 42% of the dead were 85 or more and another 33% at least 75. Given the huge percentage (95 ish) who had underlying illnesses its not hard to work out who is at risk.
Sadly people are incapable of doing this and the result is the total farce of where we are now with talk of schools not even opening in Sept and millions losing their jobs.
Anyway thats me done with posting on here about this, its all got like Groundhog Day and if people want to live scared existences worrying about an illness that would put them in bed for a couple of days then good luck to them. Pity theyve screwed the future for the youngsters.
Sadly people are incapable of doing this and the result is the total farce of where we are now with talk of schools not even opening in Sept and millions losing their jobs.
Anyway thats me done with posting on here about this, its all got like Groundhog Day and if people want to live scared existences worrying about an illness that would put them in bed for a couple of days then good luck to them. Pity theyve screwed the future for the youngsters.
after this covid fiasco with the cabinet, scientist, journalists allegedly well educated, id say that education isnt that important .
Dotchinite,i know but the young will spread it,cases in schools that retuned already.
I do sympathise but too late to reverse policy.
I'm not scared myself though avoid supermarkets and public except what is a must, i cannot give it to my elderly parents and haven't seen them/family since xmas,many would be in my shoes,they morally couldn't cope with giving that to a vulnerable person.
I am pessimistic re UK,the policy is half baked and hope i am wrong but it seems to be set for a while yet,too many cases each day, you are right with ground hog days.
I do sympathise but too late to reverse policy.
I'm not scared myself though avoid supermarkets and public except what is a must, i cannot give it to my elderly parents and haven't seen them/family since xmas,many would be in my shoes,they morally couldn't cope with giving that to a vulnerable person.
I am pessimistic re UK,the policy is half baked and hope i am wrong but it seems to be set for a while yet,too many cases each day, you are right with ground hog days.
12 deaths isn't a remote chance
How many did they infect, who infected somebody else
Leading to 60,000 deaths because we locked down too late
And still we get folk telling us about remote chance...
How many did they infect, who infected somebody else
Leading to 60,000 deaths because we locked down too late
And still we get folk telling us about remote chance...
yhtl. IF you dont think 12 deaths isnt a remote chance you are clueless. Stop posting your rubbish and go back and hide in your house and leave the grown yups to live their lives.
Lol, it's you peddling rubbish, as well you know
Get back to your 3 pints, maybe cut back to 2 if it's making you
irrational and abusive again
Get back to your 3 pints, maybe cut back to 2 if it's making you
irrational and abusive again
Christ this George Floyd killing is affecting us all. I am broadly in agreement with Dotty.
Why do you need to strictly enforce a 2M rule if people are not infected?
Will you die if you briefly pass less than 2M from someone?
Why do you need to strictly enforce a 2M rule if people are not infected?
Will you die if you briefly pass less than 2M from someone?
Dotchinite is spot on, we know who needs isolating by now. They can't see anyone, so what's the point of isolating their grandchildren, they can't see them anyway. Hide those who need hiding, or those who want to be hidden and let the youngsters crack on.
Always amazed that Johnson fans think he's a patriotic Brit.
If his grandad hadn't changed their name to Johnson when they became naturalised British citizens during WW1 he'd have been born Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Kamal. In New York.
In Brexiter terms, "a Turkish Yank"
If his grandad hadn't changed their name to Johnson when they became naturalised British citizens during WW1 he'd have been born Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Kamal. In New York.
In Brexiter terms, "a Turkish Yank"
if the 1.5/2 million are shielding and we have still had 66,000 deaths,how do we no who should be locked away,are you saying everyone over 55,60 and as well as the deaths theres 1000,s left with internal organ injuries,do you think people are going to risk that,your 2 million suddenly becomes 3,4,5 million kept apart,the countries child minding gone in a second and people not going with their normal lives,worrying,looking after their elderly family
But grandparents are allowed to see their kids at school if
They are their teachers.
They can meet them at the zoo
At a drive in movie, ( if they can find one)
Take them for an eye test
But can't have them round on their birthday for cake...
They are their teachers.
They can meet them at the zoo
At a drive in movie, ( if they can find one)
Take them for an eye test
But can't have them round on their birthday for cake...
out of interest how many drive ins are there in britain?
https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/d/united-kingdom--newcastle-upon-tyne/outdoor-c...
Not sure I will sing through grease whilst sat in the motor
yhtl Nothing irrational about my posts and the figures I quote are all official statistics. You just arent interested in facts that argue against your irrational fear. If you maintain 12 deaths (with virtually all having serious illnesses) doesnt represent a remote risk then theres little point in discussing anything is there as clearly you wont accept any stats that dont suit your purpose.
on world at one staunch tory who up until January worked for doris tim montgomerie currently shredding the current government,
on dom cummings who he likes rather than a genius says 50% of his ideas are barking mad,ridiculous,and 50% are good,in normal times that isn't a problem but becomes a problem when you surround yourself with people who think 100% of your idea,s are brilliant,because they darnt say anything different,as montgomerie,s an arch brexiteer doesn't look good for Brexit,singapore on thames here we come
on dom cummings who he likes rather than a genius says 50% of his ideas are barking mad,ridiculous,and 50% are good,in normal times that isn't a problem but becomes a problem when you surround yourself with people who think 100% of your idea,s are brilliant,because they darnt say anything different,as montgomerie,s an arch brexiteer doesn't look good for Brexit,singapore on thames here we come
Tim Montgomerie, the journalist who founded the influential ConservativeHome website, used to be an enthusiastic supporter of Boris Johnson. But, in an article for the New Statesman, he says he has lost faith in the prime minister because he now thinks the PM has given up listening to a wide range of voices and is now intolerant of criticism. Here’s an extract.
"It took six years for Margaret Thatcher’s governments to begin to stop listening to alternative voices. The same patterns had emerged within six months of Johnson becoming prime minister, and within six weeks of his general election victory last December. In her early years the Iron Lady relished argument and intellectual debate – and those internal jousts strengthened her for the public battles with her true opponents. In the starkest of contrasts, the team inside today’s No 10 has often preferred to greet internal dissent with retribution – much of it pre-briefed to favoured journalists. Throughout the Westminster village every Tory had quickly learned the score: do, say and tweet as you are told – or else. In February’s reshuffle we learned that earning the disfavour of key prime ministerial adviser Dominic Cummings was fatal, even if you were chancellor of the Exchequer. Everyone was dispensable. Except Dom."
In an interview on the World at One Montgomerie, who is particularly close to Sajid Javid, the former chancellor who was effectively sacked because he would not let No 10 choose his advisers, said he was especially worried about the influence of Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s chief adviser.
"What I worry about is that [Cummings] is a brilliant figure, but half of his ideas are crazy, and half of his ideas are good. He shouldn’t be in a leadership position, he shouldn’t be in a dominant position. And I’m afraid that is what has happened inside Downing Street ... The Vote Leave operation that Dominic Cummings ran during the EU referendum has essentially been transplanted into Downing Street, and there is a lack of diversity in thought and personnel as a result."
"It took six years for Margaret Thatcher’s governments to begin to stop listening to alternative voices. The same patterns had emerged within six months of Johnson becoming prime minister, and within six weeks of his general election victory last December. In her early years the Iron Lady relished argument and intellectual debate – and those internal jousts strengthened her for the public battles with her true opponents. In the starkest of contrasts, the team inside today’s No 10 has often preferred to greet internal dissent with retribution – much of it pre-briefed to favoured journalists. Throughout the Westminster village every Tory had quickly learned the score: do, say and tweet as you are told – or else. In February’s reshuffle we learned that earning the disfavour of key prime ministerial adviser Dominic Cummings was fatal, even if you were chancellor of the Exchequer. Everyone was dispensable. Except Dom."
In an interview on the World at One Montgomerie, who is particularly close to Sajid Javid, the former chancellor who was effectively sacked because he would not let No 10 choose his advisers, said he was especially worried about the influence of Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s chief adviser.
"What I worry about is that [Cummings] is a brilliant figure, but half of his ideas are crazy, and half of his ideas are good. He shouldn’t be in a leadership position, he shouldn’t be in a dominant position. And I’m afraid that is what has happened inside Downing Street ... The Vote Leave operation that Dominic Cummings ran during the EU referendum has essentially been transplanted into Downing Street, and there is a lack of diversity in thought and personnel as a result."
nineteen points 10 Jun 20 17:14
schools have gone from 1st june to "hopefully" september. you can tell in his voice he is "gone".totally at sea.
He's been out of his depth as soon as his premiership started getting serious. He's a good time charlie. Thought this PM lark was going to be a jolly good jape.
schools have gone from 1st june to "hopefully" september. you can tell in his voice he is "gone".totally at sea.
He's been out of his depth as soon as his premiership started getting serious. He's a good time charlie. Thought this PM lark was going to be a jolly good jape.
seething waiting for the next free money,left wing policy to come along,before we have a good laugh at watching doris implement a chlorinated brexit
saddo used to claim that he disliked the tories and yet most of his posts seem to be having digs at anyone who points out their failures and weak leadership.
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