8000 new infections

Removing freedom for an extended period is doesnt fit in with that and certainly wouldnt be tolerated.

What we should be preparing is a virus with the transmission of measles and the killing power of Marburgs . It will come and if not enough work is

done by everyone it will be the end of civilisation as we know it . (NAP)

What? No horse racing? You cannot be serious!

Sont

The 8k figure may because the government sent out loads of tests to people forming a representative sample then found out how many positive & negative tests returned.
Then multiplied this % up to tge size of England population. So basically nothing to do with loss of smell or for tgat matter a cough or a high temperature.

It is a fairly standard principle, 1936 USA election was an early example of sampling.

?

Dotchinite,of course i am sympathetic for your point,i can't say you aren't wrong.
Someone who works in a fairly large office which is open through lockdown has said that fans were being used in it, how can something like that happen? it is blowing everyones air over the whole office. This is just bonkers.
If Eyeballs 18.07 post is nearer the mark in conjunction with his earlier post regarding a lapse in time of year what then?
Maybe the economy will never be the same? It may/may not die out like Spainish flu,hope i am wrong but it seems as if enough noise being made this is quite long term.

lapsy if this here for the long term then we definitely need to get on with our lives and ignore it. A good place to start would be stopping these silly daily updates they do. Once a week is plenty.
The world gets madder and madder every day. Look at Scotlands new rules that say you can have a barbeque for up to 8 people in your garden but people have to bring their own plates and food and arent allowed to use your inside toilet. Total rubbish and just encouraging people to become even more paranoid. We really need to get a grip quickly and get this virus into context. It seems so many think its ebola.

darwinism in action at durdle door today

just listening to scientist saying theres evdcence of only one person catching virus in open air,most are inside,
all very good but who takes it inside and where do they get it from to take inside, not foooking rocket science to work out if more people are spending most of their time inside,most transmission will be inside,
most deaths in care homes becsase people took it inside them from outside, or his he saying its airbourn and came in through door,s ,window,s air con etc

He was talking about one particular study in one particular environment. A very narrow view.

thank fooook ,he,s me thinking he was stating the bleeding fooooking obvious

Dotch, there are more people who think that COVID-19 is the flu than those who think it is ebola

Raab backing up Johnson's claim that there has been a world beating test and trace system up and running since Thursday

They can't even count how many people have been tested for more than a week.
World beating my @rse

Just a couple of notes,

A German was tested positive after landing on 1st flight to China, no symptons,the mandatory test found he is an asymtomatic carrier.

Arlene Foster reckons track and tracing wil be in place for 2+ years, looks like the long haul.

I think the scary bit is the asymptomatic carriers of the virus could dwarf the infected ones thus the only fail-safe method is testing everyone and not just those with the disease or symptoms. These carriers could be more deadly as they are invisible esp working within the NHS and in hospitals or care homes.

Testing everyone is not fail safe, you can pick up the virus the next day, in fact you can test negative when you have it (during the incubation stage)

https://twitter.com/mrdanwalker/status/1267055539806179329

The state of this lot ffs,thick as mince..

These types of each way no lose tweets are so tedious. Infections fall and he get what one assumes he hopes for, infections rise and he pulls the 'I told you so' line.

I think with testing even the asymptomatics will eventually be detected thro' track and trace. And, once this group of carriers are detected extermination or self-isolation until they are Covid-19 free.

There is no issue with the strategy as it is now as far as I can see. I feel like the most important variable is hospital admissions due to covid 19. As the most most risky things have been eliminated, new infections should fall away naturally, assisted by track and trace. The unknown is whether it can every be fully eliminated in a country such as ours.

I believe where asymptomatics exist there will be Covid-19 patients. However, thro' testing and tracking and tracing the severity of the virus would be significantly reduced, but total eradication will take much longer or until a vaccine is found. Until then, live with it the best as possible.

May 31, 2020 -- 12:46PM, lapsy pa wrote:

Just a couple of notes,A German was tested positive after landing on 1st flight to China, no symptons,the mandatory test found he is an asymtomatic carrier.Arlene Foster reckons track and tracing wil be in place for 2+ years, looks like the long haul.

arlene foster doesn't believe in dinsoaurs so would ignore her .

2.2 million shielded for 10 weeks now been let outside if they want

for 100,s of them in certain area,s north west/east for example ,will be walking out in to area,s with more covid ,than when they went in to quarantine

Personal choice, unbelievable

Feel more for those in those devolved nations where they are still being told to stay trapped in captivity in this weather with no option :(

May 31, 2020 -- 2:48PM, Cider wrote:

Feel more for those in those devolved nations where they are still being told to stay trapped in captivity in this weather with no option :(

Lol, where are those exactly?

Ha Morpeth Mackem, normally i would agree but credit to her for acknowledging the virus is on the island of Ireland.

I thought i heard there are more cases around today than Mid-March? i may be wrong as was only half listening to the telly yesterday.

None of us are professors but most have been helpful on the thread and tried to paint a fairly realistic picture of the actual risks,good stuff.

like a shadow; i'd get a restrictive order if i was you, Cider

its not personal chopice if the one friend visitor has unknownly got the virus,reason millions havnt been visiting in 1st place

it could be just love i spose..

https://www.gov.scot/news/lockdown-begins-to-ease-in-phase-1/

“People who are shielding will be well into their third month of isolation, of not being able to leave the house at all. They are uppermost in our thoughts as we think about how to safely come out of lockdown and we’ll provide more information for them in the coming weeks.

Jeane Freeman addresses the group who are “shielding”, acknowledging that restrictions have been “incredibly difficult” and how tough it has been to see restrictions eased for those less at risk.

The health secretary says the government will provide “clarity” to those shielding with more information “over the course of the next few weeks”.

“We have not forgotten about you,” she says, stressing changes announced by the UK government yesterday apply to England only.

just said England & Wales on the BEEB

May 31, 2020 -- 2:52PM, Baphornet wrote:

it could be just love i spose..

Any critism of the snp seems to be correlated

Yes, Jeane said that only a few minutes ago apparently, but it's incorrect. Should concentrate on Scotland I guess.

Mr Meadows & unrequited love for the Skye Michelin man

May 31, 2020 -- 3:00PM, Cider wrote:

https://www.gov.scot/news/lockdown-begins-to-ease-in-phase-1/“People who are shielding will be well into their third month of isolation, of not being able to leave the house at all. They are uppermost in our thoughts as we think about how to safely come out of lockdown and we’ll provide more information for them in the coming weeks.Jeane Freeman addresses the group who are “shielding”, acknowledging that restrictions have been “incredibly difficult” and how tough it has been to see restrictions eased for those less at risk.The health secretary says the government will provide “clarity” to those shielding with more information “over the course of the next few weeks”.“We have not forgotten about you,” she says, stressing changes announced by the UK government yesterday apply to England only.

Very sensible, unlike the clowns down here.

She'll change it soon enough.

My good lady is awaiting a transplant. She has been shielding and she will continue to stay indoors.

The change in England (and Wales) allows people in the shielding category to go outside for the first time in 10 weeks. If they want to. Anyone who wants to continue shielding is free to do so. Most of them are old enough to make their own minds up.

We have a nice garden and that does her just fine.

She won't be going anywhere till after her transplant.

Isn't that the point. Not everyone has a nice garden option, but because you do, you favour a blanket instruction for everyone. It's the same through the pandemic. People who are comfortable being locked down tend to advocate continuing the lockdown as a blanket measure.

May 31, 2020 -- 3:21PM, politicspunter wrote:

My good lady is awaiting a transplant. She has been shielding and she will continue to stay indoors.

Not just your wife.

Your whole family needs to shield with her.

In one off the much earlier chats with IT I said to him that the government will allow for a personal decision when things were better, and so they have done.

It's simply far too early at the moment to try and get folks that are rightly shielding (for any number of reasons) to go outside as normal and pretend the danger has gone. It hasn't and it's reckless to pretend that it has.

You're deciding that for everyone, which is wrong. You can decide that for yourself, which is right.

give,m all a test to post why their out,

It's wrong for the government to say it is safe. It's not, far from it.

Of course it's not guaranteed to be totally without risk. Potentially it will never be. What they are allowing for is people to make their own judgement in the knowledge that effectively being captive, especially if they live alone, is hugely detrimental to a of people.

They are not captive, they are safe.

If Addenbrookes in Cambridge transplant unit knew that any of their candidates for a transplant were out walking the streets they would go ballistic.

I believe specific direct advice from a physician overrides the general, nationwide guidelines.

I accept that easing of the restrictions is necessary sooner rather than later but i wish the gov't would display some honesty and say that its a mix of health (the enormity of being sheltered in your home without contact with others is unprecedented and debilitating) and the financial cost which determines the change. They are suggesting that it is significantly safer as the 5 criteria have been met ... thats debateableas goal posts seem to move but they should explain that it is a caculated risk. The gov't prefer to avoid real explanations as they have done so much wrong ...attempting to shift the blame to the science ...but all evidence is they now reacting politically without saying that is the reality.

May 31, 2020 -- 3:57PM, Cider wrote:

I believe specific direct advice from a physician overrides the general, nationwide guidelines.

Cider, my lady is typical of folks that are shielding. Folks that have had transplants, whose immune systems are shot, folks awaiting them etc. There are multiple different health issues of course involved but it's simply wrong to say all who have been shielding can now go out,it's safe. The opposite is true.

Spot on geordie. Lockdown was always going to be a limited time thing for many reasons and its time has gone. The Government should now be honest about the risk (and lack of it for most people) and let everyone make their own mind up about how to live.

I think they are

Well we actually need to know why they've not moved from 4 to 3. It's far from clear, I sense there's some politics in there from the scientists.

Lefties again eh, Cider

Scientists aren't politicians. They advise, the politicians make the decisions, sometimes they get it right, sometimes they don't.

Well I don't see why they've not moved from 4 to 3, substantively. Boris seemed to think that was going to happen on Wednesday. Scientists aren't politicians but many of them are very political.

The irony is that on Thursday all the journos were so preoccupied by Dom they didn't even notice

Pretty simple really, the criteria has not been achieved to move from Level 3 to Level 4.
Transmission remains high at approx. 8k new cases per day in the community in England.

the right hate scientist,s,proff,s expert,s etc because daddy cant palm someone,s had with silver to get them in like the city or spads

The scientists don't make decisions, they advise. It's totally up to the government to decide which phase of the process we are at, to move to a lower or back to a higher number. This isn't guesswork, it has to be based on rock solid data.

that transmission data is out of date, and the trend is substantially down.

So let's say that it is 6k, that is still high.
Johnson took a gamble at the Liaison Committee, and his gamble didn't work.

transmission is not high or rising exponentially, r was in fact lowered.

0.7 to 0.9

That's not high obviously, it means nee cases are exponentially falling.

As I say, it's far from clear.

#new

unless you no where the 115,000 tests are taking place ,transmission rates,positive results dot mean a lot

Cider, are you privy to the detailed criteria being applied by SAGE ?

Spain had 4 deaths yesterday, Germany had 6. We had 215. We still have big problems.

Epidemic is in general circulation

Seems to me to be exactly where we are at.

Question to Van-Tam yesterday "There are still an estimated 8k new cases per day, who is being infected?"

A. "We'll need to get to the bottom of that."

May 31, 2020 -- 4:20PM, Cider wrote:

Epidemic is in general circulation Seems to me to be exactly where we are at.

What colour is white ?

just contact DC Thompson & ask for a Benao subscription

350,000 postal test,s still not sorted ,and the new capacity includes 40,000 antibodt tests,what can possibly go wrong,

people in hospital down,2000 deaths a week always a help,

May 31, 2020 -- 4:20PM, politicspunter wrote:

Spain had 4 deaths yesterday, Germany had 6. We had 215. We still have big problems.

That data from Spain seems suspect, but regardless, deaths occur 3 weeks after infection, typically.

Suspect because you would prefer it to be something else or suspect because there are genuine and identifiable flaws in their measurement techniques ?

We have the second highest deaths toll in the world, we have had the highest in Europe (by the proverbial mile) last day or so.

I don't know how Spain reports figures but considering their earlier level, it seems unlikely to be accurate. They key point is that death registration figures are lagged and you wouldn't base decisions today based on recent registered death figures.

Unlikely eh. With what confidence level do you make that statement ?

I don't mean the figure itself isn't accurate. I have no idea if they require an official test, or how they report figures at the weekend, or how they report community or care home deaths, or comorbidity deaths.

Germany were averaging 2,000 new cases a day for the last 15 days of April, probably similar prevalence to us now. But they've only averaged under 500 a day for the last 15 days of May despite easing the lockdown. I don't see why we wont follow a similar trend.

New estimate in.

As of week 30 May 2020.

0.07 new infections per 100 people per week.

39,000 / 7 = 5570 per day.

or 1 in 1428 per week

Thank you very much.

Good work Cider, i hope you are correct the numbers per day are dropping and really should be a week after OP.
I know you are putting the risk as a chance of a person catching it which isn't wrong and might very likely to be the correct way of doing it.
The alternative way is saying 40k new people are catching it this week.
Point of the thread is there are still plenty of people catching this and to be careful,the new cases daily updates are only tested cases.

It's not really attributing meaning or drawing conclusions from the data. What's important to remember is the latency of the data. It's not 1 in 1428 now, but a week ago. That means, on a similar path we could be around 1 in 1850 now.

Whatever the politics, all these gatherings for protests are definitely a variable, and anecdotally there's lots of evidence of the measures being circumvented around the country on top of the protest gatherings. It's definitely an unknown now compliance is on the wane. There's a theory that the virility of the virus itself is reducing. The data doesn't support that the hypothesis in incorrect.

3 days after Valance said 8000 suspected cases, your estimate at 5570the daily brifing gave suspected cases at 3900.
Of course it could be but the cynical part of me would be suspicious of admitting a higher estimate to not spook the public on the verge of trying to get people back to work?

1700 confirmed cases off under 100,000 tested yesterday, but they reckon the other 50 million have only 4,000 between them,

The estimate on the slides was 39K so 5570 per day. That was ending 30 May so almost a week ago.

People are meant to be coming forward for a test 1st timer. So the question really is how many people either have symptoms and aren't requesting a test, or are asymptomatic.

We don't get the data but it would be quite interesting to know how many of the confirmed tests are in the community.

New estimate in.


11 positives out of 19,933. Or 0.055%


As of week 7 June 2020.

0.06 new infections per 100 people per week.

33,000 / 7 = 4715 per day.

or 1 in 1700 per week.



As the proportion of those testing positive in England is decreasing over time, it is likely that the incidence rate is also decreasing. However, because of the low number of new positive cases, we cannot currently measure a statistically significant reduction.

11 positives in 8 households it's really heading towards being negligible. It doesn't fit the narrative craved by many of course, but this is subsiding quickly, in the community at least.

People like Prof John Edmunds that the OP referenced are absolute frauds.

Good morning Cider,dropping but almost 5k new cases a day!
Ireland had single figure new cases the last few days(tested only)
Given it was 8k 2 weeks ago.say 5k now,would it be reasonable to assume people getting infected are halving every 2 weeks?
Maybe it is longer than you think but that is conjecture on my part.

How can you label him a fraud now,the numbers were in late May and bound to decrease,that 8k was mentioned by every scientific advisor and politician days after OP.

Whatever way you look at it,the late lockdown has resulted in a protracted end date of actually having control.

I highlighted it at the time lapsy, he was using out of date data, where the run rate is consistently down. I wouldn't claim to be smarter than he is, so he was being deliberately misleading to push his preferred narrative. This is not a game though, these people are playing with real lives and livelihoods.

As you may see from my figures, it's 0.055 to 2 significant dp but ONS has (technically correctly in statistical terms) rounded up but could just as easily be 0.5. My prediction of 1 in 1850 is close to being spot on, but remember that is a week old now so it will be less than 1 in 2000 currently. I would put it at around 3600 per day right now.

Halving every two weeks is ballpark right I would say, with track and trace operational we can expect daily positive cases to go quite rapidly below 1000.

*0.05 sorry.

Just as an aside HSE (Irish health service) says we better get used to mask wearing for the next couple of years,not the kinda thing you want to be hearing.