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Only 4.4% of French population infected by coronavirus: Pasteur institute
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-france-immunity/only-4-4-of-french-population-infected-by-coronavirus-pasteur-institute-idUKKBN22Q0RM
PARIS (Reuters) - A study led by the Pasteur Institute says a mere 4.4% of the French population - or 2.8 million people - have been infected by the novel coronavirus, much higher than the official count of cases but way too low to achieve so-called “herd immunity”.
In a study published on Wednesday in the journal Science, researchers say the infection rate in the worst-hit parts of France - the eastern part of the country and the Paris region - is between 9 and 10 percent on average.
“Around 65% of the population should be immune if we want to control the pandemic by the sole means of immunity”, the study says.
Herd immunity refers to a situation where enough people in a population have immunity to an infection to be able to effectively stop that disease from spreading.
The rate of infection was measured by the Pasteur Institute as of May 11, the day when France started to unwind its almost two-month-long national lockdown.
“As of a consequence, our results show that, without a vaccine, the herd immunity alone will not be enough to avoid a second wave at the end of the lockdown. Efficient control measures must thus be upheld after May 11”, researchers say.
France’s overall death toll from the virus rose to 27,074 on Wednesday, the fifth-highest in the world, and total number of cases officially stood at 177,700, the seventh-highest total.
The Pasteur Institute also said the lockdown put in place on March 17 in France led to a drastic decline of the coronavirus’ reproduction rate, going from 2.9 to 0.67 over the 55-day virtual standstill of the country.
A Spanish study also published on Wednesday showed similar results, saying about 5% of the country’s population had contracted the disease and that there was no herd immunity in Spain, also emerging progressively for long lockdown.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-france-immunity/only-4-4-of-french-population-infected-by-coronavirus-pasteur-institute-idUKKBN22Q0RM
PARIS (Reuters) - A study led by the Pasteur Institute says a mere 4.4% of the French population - or 2.8 million people - have been infected by the novel coronavirus, much higher than the official count of cases but way too low to achieve so-called “herd immunity”.
In a study published on Wednesday in the journal Science, researchers say the infection rate in the worst-hit parts of France - the eastern part of the country and the Paris region - is between 9 and 10 percent on average.
“Around 65% of the population should be immune if we want to control the pandemic by the sole means of immunity”, the study says.
Herd immunity refers to a situation where enough people in a population have immunity to an infection to be able to effectively stop that disease from spreading.
The rate of infection was measured by the Pasteur Institute as of May 11, the day when France started to unwind its almost two-month-long national lockdown.
“As of a consequence, our results show that, without a vaccine, the herd immunity alone will not be enough to avoid a second wave at the end of the lockdown. Efficient control measures must thus be upheld after May 11”, researchers say.
France’s overall death toll from the virus rose to 27,074 on Wednesday, the fifth-highest in the world, and total number of cases officially stood at 177,700, the seventh-highest total.
The Pasteur Institute also said the lockdown put in place on March 17 in France led to a drastic decline of the coronavirus’ reproduction rate, going from 2.9 to 0.67 over the 55-day virtual standstill of the country.
A Spanish study also published on Wednesday showed similar results, saying about 5% of the country’s population had contracted the disease and that there was no herd immunity in Spain, also emerging progressively for long lockdown.
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****, latest loons in England think 25% have been infected
Let's run that herd immunity,sounds a great idea''work will set you free''they wouldn't would they..
As usual OP is misleading; 4.4% of 67m equates to 2.68m with 27k deaths because of Covid-19.
Some loons think 10% will be enough
Not sure how you have missed the hundreds of threads on here
Not sure how you have missed the hundreds of threads on here
May 14, 2020 -- 1:57PM, impossible123 wrote:
As usual OP is misleading; 4.4% of 67m equates to 2.68m with 27k deaths because of Covid-19.
imp123, you appear to have an obsession in regard to providing critical reviews of some of my posts.
However, first point of note is that the article was prepared by Reuters, not by myself.
Secondly, if you are going to engage in fact checking activities, you really do need to check your facts.
France has a population of approximately 65.3 million.
65.3 million x 4.4% = 2.87 million.
Quite how you believe that 67 million x 4.4% = 2.68 million really is something that only you can answer.
My arithmetic arrives at 2.95 million.
Give an infection death rate of 0.91%.
For this to be true the number of infections (not just deaths) must disproportionately high in the vulnerable and old.
For this to be true the number of infections (not just deaths) must disproportionately high in the vulnerable and old.
IT
Wouldn't it be slightly higher than that because of the time lag between having the virus and dying.
It could be 3 weeks from a positive test to a final outcome- either good or bad.
That roughly fits in with other setups 1-1.5% , but until have confidence in number of people infected is pretty difficult to calculate.
Puts UK (&France/ItalyUSA/Spain etc. ) in a pretty poor position. Too many have died but not anywhere near enough cases for a "heard immunity " situation.
I am beginning to think UK government plan is to reduce cases then leave to simmer, keeping rate close to 1 rather than massive effort to reduce.
We seem to be a long way from "only" 20 deaths /1500 cases a day . We are not even bothering to test everybody who believes they are ill.
Wouldn't it be slightly higher than that because of the time lag between having the virus and dying.
It could be 3 weeks from a positive test to a final outcome- either good or bad.
That roughly fits in with other setups 1-1.5% , but until have confidence in number of people infected is pretty difficult to calculate.
Puts UK (&France/ItalyUSA/Spain etc. ) in a pretty poor position. Too many have died but not anywhere near enough cases for a "heard immunity " situation.
I am beginning to think UK government plan is to reduce cases then leave to simmer, keeping rate close to 1 rather than massive effort to reduce.
We seem to be a long way from "only" 20 deaths /1500 cases a day . We are not even bothering to test everybody who believes they are ill.
Corona virus is only a baby,it sleeps,it creeps,and when it get older it leaps.
^^
Oh dear! Just when I thought things were looking up. Maybe fight coronavirus with Corona beer.
Oh dear! Just when I thought things were looking up. Maybe fight coronavirus with Corona beer.
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