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Now, there are significant doubts as to the validity of the data released by Iran.
However, looking at the daily reported cases, there does appear to be the possibility of a second wave beginning to build.
The 7 day rolling average of new cases peaked on 2 April at 3,009 and fell to 992 on 3 May.
However, it has been rising from that point, reaching 1,582 today when 1,958 new cases were reported.
One to keep an eye on.
However, looking at the daily reported cases, there does appear to be the possibility of a second wave beginning to build.
The 7 day rolling average of new cases peaked on 2 April at 3,009 and fell to 992 on 3 May.
However, it has been rising from that point, reaching 1,582 today when 1,958 new cases were reported.
One to keep an eye on.
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Another week of data and the resurgence in the number of detected new daily cases continues.
7 day rolling average of new cases has risen to 2,032, 67% of the peak experienced on 2 April. Early signs also emerging of a reversal in the decline of the 7 day rolling average reported deaths.  |
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Have their testing criteria changed between the end of March and now?
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@aliostad on twitter, i have just started following him and have no way of checking what he says but what he has been reporting is worrying, the hospital system looks to be really struggling.
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I'd take any country's figures outside Western Europe and parts of SE Asia with a huge pinch of salt. It's carry on as normal in places like Mexico, Brazil abd Iran. They must have the highest per capita fatality figures in the world, but they are nowhere near
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Data up to the end of May, and the increase in the daily numbers of new reported cases continues to creep back up.
7 day rolling average up to 2,252 at the end of the month, 75% of the maximum figure of 3,009 from 2 April.  |
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Angoose reminds me of a character from the Wizard of Oz, wonder if anyone can guess who, clue: it's not Dorothy.
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Why does data discomfort you ?
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The 2 million+ people who have missed cancer screenings and treatment because of a virus is a worry, yes.
The UK data that records deaths where a person has simply contacted the virus rather than actually died from it and thus inflated numbers hugely, is also a worry. Then there are the rise in drink consumption as reported by alcoholchage.uk and the 10 fold increase in calls to domestic abuse helplines. |
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These are all worrying issues.
Not sure where you are getting your ten fold increase in regard to domestic abuse though, Refuge reported a 66% increase just last week. The local charity that I am involved with has experienced increased volumes of around 40%. They are particularly concerned that their contact is all via telephone, their experience tells them that face to face contact is much more effective for establishing trust. |
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Irony of people taking other countries results with a pinch of salt
Our clown government have been and still are fiddling figures. Most countries should get some second uptick as lockdown is released If timing is right it should be small. |
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There is a far greater awareness of abuse issues, so as folk have time to
reflect they don't put off that phone call. The levels of phone calls are probably a welcome increase as abuse has historically been massively under reported. So long as it's not just abuse that has recently started. |
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Not sure where you are getting your ten fold increase in regard to domestic abuse though, Refuge reported a 66% increase just last week.
domestic abuse website had a 10 fold increase in visit to it's site. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52755109 point I'm making is that it is very narrow thinking to just concentrate on death toll figures for the virus itself and not think or consider any other negative side effects that the lockdown has caused, as said, the figures themselves are misleading. |
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The figures aren't misleading, they are what they are.
They do, however, require careful and appropriate interpretation. |
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no they are definitely misleading, telling us corona virus related deaths means nothing. It gives people the impression every single person why has died in their figures has died because the virus played a key part in their passing which is not the case.
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Perhaps data just isn't for you.
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not misleading data no, I don't know think over 2 million missed cancer screenings is for other people either, Hancock doesn't give it much of a mention and he's the health secretary.
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The National Council of Resistance has been warning for weeks that Iran is massively underreporting the death rally there.
They are normally pretty well informed, and the first to bring the regime's atrocities to the attention of the world. They have reported that planes were still travelling to and from China long after they were supposed to have stopped. |
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Those flights were Mayan Air, who are believed to be the carrier for the clandestine links between the IRGC and the PLA.
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Mahan - apologies, autocorrect
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I used to fly to Qeshm on Fars Air from Dubai.
Just a thirty minute flight, but, my goodness, were you pleased when it landed. The crew would then waltz through passport control, all of them weighed down with bags of McDonalds takeaway.  |
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Unusually large urban populations as well, won't help them. About 60m live in urban areas.
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All real. Used to also have to endure a farcical finger printing process, imposed on UK passport holders as a tit-for-tat measure by the Iranians.
They didn’t have the correct equipment, the ink pad used was intended for use with a rubber stamp. |
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NCRI reporting 48,800 deaths as of today.
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The People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) announced this afternoon, June 2, 2020, that Coronavirus has taken the lives of more than 48,800 in 324 cities across Iran.
3555 in Qom, 3745 in Khuzestan, 3110 in Khorasan Razavi, 1545 in Sistan and Baluchistan, 1532 in Lorestan, 1071 in Fars, 935 in Kurdestan, 580 in Kerman, 548 in North Khorasan, 245 in Hormozagan. This is in addition to reports obtained from other provinces. |
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the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, (A left wing, Anti Iranian Government who've spent 50+ years trying to overthrow the Iranian leadership) are basing their findings on phoning up hospitals asking for reports, if the Iranian state said there were 48,000 deaths the PMOI would say there were 150,000 deaths, we've no idea if they are accurate or more likely inaccurate, there's no breakdown of actual direct deaths from the virus, no numbers on patients who already has serious health issues, no patient ages etc, that is not to say the Iranian government are accurate either of course. But it laughable to use such a source, hardly independent.
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The officially reported figure is 7,942 versus an unofficial estimate of 48,800.
Question is then, how would you price up the two figures for being closet to the "actual" figure ? |