31 PEOPLE UNDER 40 HAVE DIED WITH NO PRE EXISTING CONDITION

*How many individuals are now deemed at the higher risk end of the spectrum.
*How many people are likely to get infected as the disease runs it's course.
*At what stage will immunity offer a shield to greatly impact transmission rates in the community.
*How exactly do the lower risk groups when unchecked pass this on to the higher risk groups.
*To what extent can you actually protect those in higher risk groups.

We all know to a pretty large extent who is vulnerable, the fact the policy makers aren't just rushing the very low risk groups back out there surely suggests there is low confidence still on a lot of understanding the actual transmission links in a population.

lux
13 May 20 08:58
Joined: 06 May 04
| Topic/replies: 2,109 | Blogger: lux's blog
you have the link? ta

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Download the latest file.

stridingedge
13 May 20 08:58
Joined: 14 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 56,498 | Blogger: stridingedge's blog
How many have a pre existing condition 45+

^

Deaths with pre existing conditions

0 - 19      8
20 - 39    127
40 - 59    1554
60 - 79    8066
80+            11169

Cannot say 45.

But 40 and over with pre-existing conditions are 20789 of the 22049 deaths. (94.2%).

I meant in the general population IT?

New day... another thread

Same old spam

STAY ALERT

There's no doubt who the at risk groups are and this has been the case for a long time. Perhaps the significance of obsese and Bame over the outbreak have increased.

The question is knowing this WHY the govt hasn't thought it obvious to relax the restrictions on those who aren't directly affected themselves.

I don't personally buy into the argument of discrimination and public uproar if the lower risk groups were treated differently as a lot of the public are in fact scared to get back to normal even concerning their kids who have a minute risk.

This doesn't mean the alternative is feasible and I'm certainly not suggesting so. A lockdown has obvious indirect implications (which would have been fully apparent at the start by govt) and the influence would rationally only increase further as time passes to the detriment of the whole society.

Can we have a full list of what is considered an underlying condition btw

what are you been restricted from doing, you can ,
go to work
spend all day in the park
,at the beach,
up a mountain,drive 12 hours to get there
go to food shops,garden centre,diy

what exactly are you been stopped from doing

Betting on a dog race.

You can play tennis with strangers but not with your family unless you live with them and have a court in your garden

Can't go round to see friend or family member and observe social distancing in their garden IF this can be done by not going through their house even.

No logic why not with regards the current understanding of the disease.

You can be alert in the park but not in their garden.

----you-have-to-laugh---
13 May 20 10:42
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 8,117 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
Can we have a full list of what is considered an underlying condition btw

^

Great question. Asked for this information. Will post if I get a reply.

From what I've read about the swedes in a few reports there seems to be more of an element of trust between govt and the people.

hang on,hang on,over 70,s are considered vulnerable I thought those who wernt happy,wanted the vulnerable shielded,hidden away ,whilst they jogged on,now they don't want to do all the things their are allowed to do but want to visit,meet the people they say should be shielded,
twang more knicker elastic going on the right

1TP I'm not sure who you are directing that at.

I want to meet some of my friends in their 30's with no conditions.

I can see them in the park but can't go through their back garden and sit outside more than 2m apart listening to a few tunes with a beer.

No trust for me to act in the right way and be alert sensibly.

You can go round their garden as a gardener

Hope this helps

If you have your tunes loud enough the nosey neighbours will not be able to ascertain you are not in fact discussing gardening issues

put your homes up for sale and visit away

8 weeks moaning about been tied to the house ,now you can go anywhere in the country,any park,beech,mountain, etc,and moaning because you cant meet up in the garden ,people have been moaning about been stuck in, I,m beginning to feel sorry for doris

(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)

“So can we go and see our granddaughter or not?”

Boris spoke to the nation on Sunday. Well, I say spoke. He coughed up word salad like someone receiving the Heimlich manoeuvre from Dominic Cummings. We have to return to work while simultaneously not going to work. It’s Schrödinger’s lockdown.

“Well, can we go visit?  I want to give them a hug?”

While social media exploded in anger, bafflement and parody ads that outbred the virus itself, finding an answer has become the new survival skill. What does ‘stay alert’ even mean? How do you ‘control the virus’?

The psychology of the messages is significant. According to Mike Galsworthy of Scientists for EU, the decision to edge the ads in green rather than red is a common subliminal-messaging marketing trick, but this time applied to disease rather than soap powder. It means ‘go’ rather than ‘stop’ – so the nation is unsurprisingly now ‘going’ again.

Also unsurprisingly, for a government that gained power with ‘take back control’, they’re now using the same Jedi mind-trick to sidestep the blame for any subsequent deaths. ‘Control the virus’ puts the responsibility ball firmly in the public’s court, by saying “we got it under control, now over to you and if it gets worse it’s your fault”.

And we’ve seen some interesting developments. Apparently, having a massive party and doing a conga down the street is OK while having more than ten people at a funeral isn’t. Presumably doing a conga at a funeral would make it permissible, although it might affect the solemnity of the occasion a bit.

“Couldn’t we drive across and meet them in a park or something?”

Well, you can drive to work, if you have to, or maybe not, if you don’t. Got that? There’s going to be an app to trace your every movement and contact and immediately report it to a centralised government authority. It’s apparently a way of defeating the virus by copying Germany: East Germany, in 1981 that is. Given the virus worst affects cities, the government, naturally, decided to test the app on the Isle of Wight. Oh, and the company, who didn’t have to tender is a start-up owned by the brother of one of Dominic Cummings’ aides.

“Well, when CAN we go and visit our granddaughter?”

Lockdown restrictions are set to be reduced from today. Or maybe yesterday. Or later this week when we publish some detail, according to Dominic Raab. It all depends on which early-morning news programme you tuned in to. Soon we’ll be allowed to go fishing and play tennis and golf as many times a day as we want. Well I say, that’s jolly good form.

Forget your grandkids. Get back to work!

(With credit to Alistair Cowan and the team at Radio Free Kinsley for the original material)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/millions-with-health-conditions-at-risk-from-covid-19-if-forced-back-to-work

Eight million people with underlying health conditions should be exempted from plans to get the country back to work and normal life, according to scientists who warn that easing lockdown too quickly could propel the Covid-19 death toll to 73,000 this year.

About 80% of the population have little to fear from a return to work, but 20% are vulnerable from one or more common conditions such as diabetes, obesity and heart problems, say researchers from University College London (UCL) in a Lancet study published on Wednesday.

Most of those are not considered clinically extremely vulnerable by the Department of Health and so instructed to shield entirely for 12 weeks.

NHS England originally said the shielding list included 1.5 million people. On Monday, the government said it numbered 2.5 million across the UK. The list focuses on people whose immune systems are impaired, for instance by chemotherapy or taking anti-rejection drugs after organ transplantation.

Dr Amitava Banerjee from the UCL Institute of Health Informatics, who led the study, said the government is “only ever talking about the extremely vulnerable – they are rare in the population, whereas these diseases we are looking at are some of the commonest chronic diseases.”


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He added: “If we are going to start getting out of lockdown, we need clearer guidelines – definitely for this group. I could not find this high-risk group in the 50-page document. If a man is under 70 and has diabetes or heart disease or kidney disease, which is a substantial proportion of the population, we need a clear message that nothing has changed.

“We all know people at work who have these conditions. It is a given. These are exactly the people who we need to give clear guidance to.”

Someone who is on the minimum wage and has COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder), who is at high risk of sickness or death from coronavirus, may otherwise head back to work, Banerjee warned.

Union leaders have voiced concerns over Boris Johnson’s exhortations to people in manufacturing and other jobs that cannot be done from home to return to work from Wednesday.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics this week showed that people in some of the lowest-skilled occupations had the highest death rates, with 21.4 deaths per 100,000 men. Men working as security guards had one of the highest rates, with 45.7 deaths per 100,000.

In their study, Banerjee and colleagues have calculated the number of over-30s who have underlying conditions and are likely to die either from Covid-19 or because they are not seeking the treatment they need.

They look at three scenarios: doing nothing in the hope of creating herd immunity, which would lead to up to 80% of the population becoming infected; mitigation, which was the strategy before the lockdown, when people were asked to keep their distance and wash their hands, which is presumed to have led to a 10% infection rate; and suppression during the lockdown.

Returning to an infection rate of 10% would lead to 37,000 deaths over the year if the relative risk of dying is twice that people with underlying conditions usually run. It is 73,000 if the risk is tripled. The relative risk of death from the virus is currently uncertain.

Prof Harry Hemingway, senior author, said: “Vaccines and drugs will take time to develop and evaluate. What works right now is two things. Firstly keeping the population infection rate as low as possible, and avoiding infection in the people at highest risk (direct effects of infection).

“Secondly we need to continue to deliver high-quality medical care to vulnerable people to prevent excess deaths in those who are not infected with coronavirus (indirect effects of the emergency).”

Sarah Harper, professor of gerontology at the University of Oxford, said it was an important paper showing how taking account of combinations of age and underlying conditions might show some people to be more vulnerable to Covid-19 than those on the official extremely vulnerable list.

“For example, a man aged 66-70 years with no underlying conditions is not currently considered high-risk. Yet he has a higher background one-year mortality (1.07%) than that of a woman aged 56-60 years with one underlying condition (0.91%), who is considered high-risk. Similarly, it shows that generally women’s mortality risk at any given age is the same as men’s who are around five years younger,” she said.

“The blanket and arbitrary use of age – for example age 70 as a rough cut-off for the high-risk mortality category – has been questioned by many already. This paper highlights the difference between men and women, and the importance of identifying underlying health conditions.

“Importantly, the authors suggest that this enables a publicly available tool for individuals to use to develop better understanding of who is at risk based on reliable health data. The association between population risk and individual risk is complex, but a transparent public health approach enabling people to understand the evidence behind government messages would be welcomed by many.”

It comes after warnings that the 2.5 million who are shielding themselves, and their family members, face an “impossible choice” between paying the bills and their health. Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, extended the furlough scheme but the 2.5 million – as well as people living with them – do not have an automatic right to be paid via the scheme, it emerged.

Joined: 14 Sep 10 | Topic/replies: 56,507 | Blogger: stridingedge's blog

*How many individuals are now deemed at the higher risk end of the spectrum.

A lot more than was thought initially?

Someone who is on the minimum wage and has COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder), who is at high risk of sickness or death from coronavirus, may otherwise head back to work, Banerjee warned.

Someone with COPD should have had the letter to stay home until at least June.

stridingedge
13 May 20 11:24
Joined: 14 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 56,508 | Blogger: stridingedge's blog
Joined: 14 Sep 10 | Topic/replies: 56,507 | Blogger: stridingedge's blog

*How many individuals are now deemed at the higher risk end of the spectrum.

A lot more than was thought initially?

^

I have requested a breakdown of deaths by pre-existing condition.

Lets see if they answer.

I would like to no and never seems to get mentioned,at this stage you,d be extremely unlucky to come within 2 metres of someone directly coughing in your face,so how are up to 20,000 a day ,catching it,is most transmission from person to person or picking it up from hard surfaces

Not just coughing. Breath in on the tube etc.

Yes will be interesting.

I've had a hunch with the numbers of deaths we've seen in a lockdown situation that whilst a very large chunk of the population have the very low risk, there have not been enough considered in the higher risk groups.

Obviously if you aren't shielding enough of the right people in the first place (and the shielding was terrible to begin with in any case even of the really most vulnerable!) you are going to get more deaths than should have been the case.

New cases in Europe yesterday:

UK -          3402

New cases in Europe yesterday:

UK -          3402
Italy -        1402
Spain -      1377
France -     802
Sweden -   602
Poland -     595
Germany - 458
Belgium -   330
Portugal -  234

Meanwhile the Tories are easing the lockdown. They want to kill us.





Ex twitter

How many tests were done in each of those countries?

if its past on by breathing,for all intents and purposes its past on as normal flu is,which has been denied from the start as has that masks are helpful, if your breath can pass the droplets no scientist,dr, etc is going to say masks don't help,never mind repeat it 24,7 for 8 weeks

It's staggering that 10 years of austerity that led to a shortage
of ppe has led to government not giving advice to wear a mask.

One bad policy feeding into another

Getting back to the opening post.  Imo an indiscrimate virus killing 10% of people regardless of age would be worse.  40% of deaths are allegedly in care homes where people have 1 year left to live.  Many will have advanced parkinsons, alzheimers and dementia.

Many live long active lives in care homes, moving in after the death of a lifelong spouse and finding homemaking too much to handle.


Some folk try to write off these old folk


Most of them are loved by friends and family

£600/1000 a week and loons on here think private care home owners fill them with people with months to live,

which is exactly why you don't enter one until there's no other option, unless the government picks up the tab

I'll top myself so my kids get my money rather than going into a care home

----you-have-to-laugh---
13 May 20 12:26
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 8,131 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
It's staggering that 10 years of austerity that led to a shortage
of ppe has led to government not giving advice to wear a mask.

^

How much extra 'ppe' (that has a shelftime) do you think the government would have had without 'austerity'?

I agree with the sentiment expressed from at least one leading scientist that if you live in a care home you shouldn't get hospital treatment at the moment.  Might sound harsh, but it's the best way of saving lives.

They should have known how much having carried out disaster planning exercises

It's not for me to calculate how much they were short by.



But short they were and combined with flippant disregard by an idiot prime minister the death toll is a national disgrace.

20,000 care home patients slaughtered by a government supported by one leading scientist and 2 or 3 folk on betfair forum

Lack of PPE in the NHS is overblown as can be seen from the death figures.  Higher in construction and security than the NHS.  A far biggest balls up was not ramping up testing earlier. Far too early to say if the death figures are too high or not.  Come back in 3 years and see where everyone is.

That's s very bold statement,doubt you can back it up with facts.

Suspicious of the care home deaths myself and will be a matter of great interest to find out what happened in these places and WHEN , how the virus got into these homes, how it spread between homes. Not so sure its been established and interested to understand it.
Is it possible it was much earlier than thought?

That post is for the joker

Maybe we'd save an extra 1,000 care home patients from an extra year, but at what cost?  Thousand of organ donations and cancer treatments for a start.  So you'd happily condemn them to death?

ONLY THE RIGHT COULD say death figures show ppe is overblown,anyone else would say the fact nhs workers are wearing it proves its saving lives, doris and co used to stand on boxes making speeches about health and safety been for the nanny state,now telling us how much,how many pieces they buy,because its crucial to keep people safe
twang the rights knicker elastic going again

Brexit was meant to see a bonfire of so called red tape,you wont hear a tory in next 5 years on tv arguing to cut red tape nap

I'd try to save life logically and pragmatically.  Run with your heart without using your head and you'll lose lives

I'm not on the right.  I'm in the centre and I voted to remain.  I only voted Tory to keep that plonker Corbyn out.

the tory,s have let the cat out of the bag,in the world of industry ppe ,health and safety,rules ande regulation has been the workers bible for 30 years,same 30 years tory,s have been calling it red tape,the general public now no,s all about it

You ain't in the centre on this

You are way way right wing

The Lib Dems are closest to my views, but they are a right mess thanks to their obsession with PC.  Not one stand out MP, which points to institutional ineptitude.

----you-have-to-laugh---
13 May 20 13:04
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 8,133 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
They should have known how much having carried out disaster planning exercises

It's not for me to calculate how much they were short by.

^

Sorry I thought you were blaming the 'austerity' for lack of stockpiling PPE incase of a once in a 100 year pandemic.

31 PEOPLE UNDER 40 HAVE DIED WITH NO PRE EXISTING CONDITION

Every week in the UK, 12 people apparently fit and healthy people – all aged 35 and under – die from a previously undiagnosed heart condition.
They often bear no symptoms and are at the peak of their lives.

I am, it is a consequence

Counting the number of gloves (pairs or single) or masks or gowns simply isn't in public domain

If you can post figures I can do the maffs for you

i have asked this before.any answers please.did the government pay the care homes to take the elderly in to free up beds in the hospitals for covid patients?

May 13, 2020 -- 2:07PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

20,000 care home patients slaughtered by a government supported by one leading scientist and 2 or 3 folk on betfair forum

Slaughtered!!
What a complete Muppet you are
You hate old people anyway as they are Brexit voting tories
Also you revel in misery and death
85 % of care homes are privately owned, it's up to them to sort out ppe
Nothing to do with the government

May 13, 2020 -- 2:55PM, nineteen points wrote:

i have asked this before.any answers please.did the government pay the care homes to take the elderly in to free up beds in the hospitals for covid patients?

That wouldn't be the govts decision to discharge patients back to care homes, it would be individual doctors

May 13, 2020 -- 2:59PM, jucel69 wrote:

May 13, 2020 --  1:07PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:20,000 care home patients slaughtered by a government supported by one leading scientist and 2 or 3 folk on betfair forumSlaughtered!!What a complete Muppet you areYou hate old people anyway as they are Brexit voting toriesAlso you revel in misery and death85 % of care homes are privately owned, it's up to them to sort out ppeNothing to do with the government

Potentially one of the lectures from this episode is, or should be, that privatised care should be rolled back in the western world.

They returned to their existing care homes as far as I can see

Don't really know if previous none care home residents were allocated care homes, but I doubt it.

"Potentially one of the lectures from this episode is, or should be, that privatised care should be rolled back in the western world."

who's going to pay for that?

would it be a pre cursor to paying for your NHS treatment?

Society

Gov seem to be very conviently accused of things the NHS bosses, (let's not forget there is a lot of high pay grades in that orginisation) should be taking responsibility for,it's not like they should not be prepared for contagious diseases and having systems in place.

It's like theses people are exempt from scrutiny and Boris is responsible for every piece of equipment and policy down to the last plaster.

Media to quick to politicise situation as well.

and inhabitants and their families.

May 13, 2020 -- 3:09PM, breadnbutter wrote:

Gov seem to be very conviently accused of things the NHS bosses, (let's not forget there is a lot of high pay grades in that orginisation) should be taking responsibility for,it's not like they should not be prepared for contagious diseases and having systems in place.It's like theses people are exempt from scrutiny and Boris is responsible for every piece of equipment and policy down to the last plaster. Media to quick to politicise situation as well.

Exactly the CEO of the NHS has got away scot free
Never even hear his name mentioned!

I think they say after 10 years of cutrs,austerity we did our best ,over to you ,MR TORY
PROMISING 40 MORE HOSPITALS
50,000 new nurses
oven ready social care solution

rather gives the game away that fair cop guv we,ve fooked up

Where technological advance is key, or competition is important, I can understand privatisation, but does a state-run care home infrastructure really provide (significantly) less bang for buck than for-profit care homes?

It's generally accepted that the NHS can't continue in it's current form in the future, without increasing the burden even further.  Blissful ignorant thinking.

It's the greatest inequality in our system that some residents have to spend their life savings and home on care home fees.  That's why pensions are now compulsory.  It levels that playing field.

We are probably about to enter a great depression, that's going to shorten millions of lives in the future as governments finance their debt mountain.  The last thing we need is the government spending pointless billions transitioning private care homes into the NHS.

DONT WORRY doris has had social care plan  oven ready in the oven for 4 months,just keeping it to himself

breadandbutter, if you gave your wife less and less housekeeping year after year would you still expect her to keep everything spick and span,new cleaning stuff, furniture,bedding,well stock food supplys,kids well fed and clothed etc?

May 13, 2020 -- 3:36PM, 1st time poster wrote:

DONT WORRY doris has had social care plan

Always look out for double spaces. Those posts can't be quoted using the normal quote feature unless you precede your own post with a >

May 13, 2020 -- 3:36PM, 1st time poster wrote:

DONT WORRY doris has had social care plan  oven ready in the oven for 4 months,just keeping it to himself

>like so

30,000 care homes deaths
care homes closing
care homes going bust

you ,d think someone with a care home silver bullet hidden in a oven,would be gagging to share it with us, who no,s doris might have a vaccine in the same oven

31 PEOPLE UNDER 40 HAVE DIED WITH NO PRE EXISTING CONDITION

we no,weve read your other 50 threads, not sure if you want a medal,doesnt really help the other 60,000 does it

May 13, 2020 -- 3:56PM, InsiderTrader wrote:

31 PEOPLE UNDER 40 HAVE DIED WITH NO PRE EXISTING CONDITION

get on facebook, twitter etc. and organise some disobedience on the streets

potentially ask people directly on the streets if you think they might share your opinion about the government doing a grave mistake.

By staying on this forum you are going to achieve exactly nothing.

...even if it's all caps.

good luck getting any under 35,s on the streets most are off school,uni,or getting paid for staying in their pit,not usually the ingriedients for a revolution

Won't know until you try. And it's not like you need a large percentage. In a country of 66 or so million people, even a tiny percentage will be able to put on a display.

This revolution will NOT be televised

slight problem with your plan is 80% of those 66 million are happy with the lockdown,sort of reduces your pool slightly

a tiny bit.

Still, even a demonstration with just IT walking the streets with his dog, if he has one, and a poster will do a whole lot more than his threads on here.

If he doesn't have a dog, he can always look for a second human or a (lifesized) cardboard person.

Perhaps some crowd funding could be undertaken to raise funds to allow private post mortems to be performed on these 31 in order to uncover undiagnosed pre existing health conditions ?

insider and dotch marching on number 10,2 metre,s apart,cant even sneak off to the pub for afters,with their luck bound to be raining, I marched on commons during steel strike in late 70,s

Did you wear a donkey jacket ?

no done up with kipper ties ,flares and star jumpers,hours march ,then off down soho,carnaby street, we were in last year of apprenticeship but asked to go to fill out the numbers on the train,freebie and a tenner for expenses,
the big union man with his banne at the frontr looked round after about 40 mins and he was leading a few dozen the rest had legged it

The good old days

certainly were,spent half my life at meetings,marching to keep them steelworks open,

Brum Uni Student Union provided free coaches every Wednesday in the late 1970's to London if you agreed to protest when you got there.  Nobody said how long you had to protest for though...

at least we made the effort,some lads got off the train stuffed the banners in the litterbins on concourse and turned up 12 hrs later pished,

Maybe we can raise funds to buy a dog fot I t



I am not donating but can applaud myself for having the capacity to donate