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12 May 20
15:14
Joined:
Date Joined:
25 Aug 05
With the possibility of no vaccine coming, treatments a mile off and tracking and tracing impossible when the virus is so widespread is it now time to go back to the original plan? Shield the vulnerable whilst the fit healthy part of the population build up immunity going about their normal business with some social distancing to control the speed of the spread. Then after a few months once immunity is built things can go back to normal.
Is this in fact what the plan is now by stealth?
If we had had no shielding and assumed that every single person in the UK caught the virus using Ferguson's infection fatality rates we would have had 816,440 deaths. Using Iceland IFR the number would be around 300,000 dead.
That assumes several things:
1. No shielding of sick and vulnerable.
2. Every can actually catch it.
3. After 60-70% of the population has had it we do not have immunity.
4. People can only catch it once.
The interesting this of those 816,400 deaths 793,000 could have been saved by shielding the over 50s.
If we had allowed the under 50s to carry on (63% of the population) the total deaths would be around 16,274 and we would have herd immunity. That number could have been cut further but shielding the vulnerable under 50s. Under the Iceland IFR the number of deaths would have been well under 8,000. Under 4,000 if vulnerable young people were protected.
How tragic for the old/vulnerable part of our society that the government did not shield them earlier and let virus pass through the under 50s.
How tragic for the country that the economy has been trashed and healthy young people have been under house arrest and our way of live has been destroyed when ultimately the only way out of this is likely to be herd immunity anyway in the long run.
Is this in fact what the plan is now by stealth?
If we had had no shielding and assumed that every single person in the UK caught the virus using Ferguson's infection fatality rates we would have had 816,440 deaths. Using Iceland IFR the number would be around 300,000 dead.
That assumes several things:
1. No shielding of sick and vulnerable.
2. Every can actually catch it.
3. After 60-70% of the population has had it we do not have immunity.
4. People can only catch it once.
The interesting this of those 816,400 deaths 793,000 could have been saved by shielding the over 50s.
If we had allowed the under 50s to carry on (63% of the population) the total deaths would be around 16,274 and we would have herd immunity. That number could have been cut further but shielding the vulnerable under 50s. Under the Iceland IFR the number of deaths would have been well under 8,000. Under 4,000 if vulnerable young people were protected.
How tragic for the old/vulnerable part of our society that the government did not shield them earlier and let virus pass through the under 50s.
How tragic for the country that the economy has been trashed and healthy young people have been under house arrest and our way of live has been destroyed when ultimately the only way out of this is likely to be herd immunity anyway in the long run.
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Tobes produces yet more whataboutery without joining the debate
Insider trader swerving more and more as yet another comical idea is shown up
The Tories ‘austerity’ was merely a reduction in borrowing. HTH etc...
Borrowing will now treble at least. Tax rises and misery to come for our kids. Boris should have ignored the hapless scientists.
Borrowing will now treble at least. Tax rises and misery to come for our kids. Boris should have ignored the hapless scientists.
May 12, 2020 -- 7:45PM, InsiderTrader wrote:
Goose not putting his neck on the line saying what he would do.
Trying to tempt me in to the pool eh.
"Come on in, the water's lovely" 
not sure what ist t p, is supposed to be maintaining but he,s quoting the front page of the local paper
Any suggestion will help him angoose
His bosses are desperate for any ideas to get
Them out of this mess they have made
His bosses are desperate for any ideas to get
Them out of this mess they have made
He just wants more opportunities to shoot down any ideas that don't agree with his.
I'm currently reading the 60 page government document.
It's well put together, but is part manifesto and part public inquiry mitigation.
Bet you that Johnson will not have read it cover to cover.
I'm currently reading the 60 page government document.
It's well put together, but is part manifesto and part public inquiry mitigation.
Bet you that Johnson will not have read it cover to cover.
Mrs has got it.
He can't shoot anything down hence 3 threads a day
About the same failed plan
STAY ALERT TO TORY SPAM
He can't shoot anything down hence 3 threads a day
About the same failed plan
STAY ALERT TO TORY SPAM
Mrs has got the document not corona virus, btw
Phew, that's a relief.
More evidence of the intention to intervene on a localised basis.
Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC)
The Centre will also have a response function that will advise on the overall prevalence of COVID-19 to help inform decisions to ease restrictions in a safe way. It will identify specific actions to address local spikes in infections, in partnership with local agencies – for example, advising Ministers, businesses and local partners to close schools or workplaces where infection rates have spiked, to reduce risk of further infection locally. p.37/38
More evidence of the intention to intervene on a localised basis.
Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC)
The Centre will also have a response function that will advise on the overall prevalence of COVID-19 to help inform decisions to ease restrictions in a safe way. It will identify specific actions to address local spikes in infections, in partnership with local agencies – for example, advising Ministers, businesses and local partners to close schools or workplaces where infection rates have spiked, to reduce risk of further infection locally. p.37/38
We need to re-open for the sake of society (and the economy). But we need to do it when the time is right. Every single country that loosens controls sees a spike in cases. If we do it soon with such a high base rate then the risk of a second wave and a catastrophic re-closing is extremely high. Politically, that's suicide for the government and there will be next to no confidence from the public next time they are told to go to the beach again.
The sad reality is that we were way too slow to close down, meaning the virus already had a firm hold. Therefore we get a widespread infection, a huge number killed and a much slower descent. These are just simple facts. Trying to ignore the last one and rushing to re-open is just naive.
There's the other point too. There appears to be strong evidence that the reason the government has again taken a tougher line that it would idealogically want is that our European neighbours are less than happy with how we've handled it and are talking about only opening borders to countries with comparable levels of infection. If major trade and holiday areas such as France, Germany, Spain etc all opened up to Ireland and the rest of Europe but said we're barred, then - again - Johnson is toast. He needs to get his sh!t together quickly.
The sad reality is that we were way too slow to close down, meaning the virus already had a firm hold. Therefore we get a widespread infection, a huge number killed and a much slower descent. These are just simple facts. Trying to ignore the last one and rushing to re-open is just naive.
There's the other point too. There appears to be strong evidence that the reason the government has again taken a tougher line that it would idealogically want is that our European neighbours are less than happy with how we've handled it and are talking about only opening borders to countries with comparable levels of infection. If major trade and holiday areas such as France, Germany, Spain etc all opened up to Ireland and the rest of Europe but said we're barred, then - again - Johnson is toast. He needs to get his sh!t together quickly.
Edwina currie the environment sec who ate eggs live on air during salmonella poisoning outbteak was on itv this morning educating us on common sense,fortunately she didn't move on to tell us about jumping into bed with john major,
john selwyn gummer on tomorrow to educate us
john selwyn gummer on tomorrow to educate us
Finished reading the document.
I kid you not, but there are four totally blank pages at the end plus the final page that only contains document identification details.
I kid you not, but there are four totally blank pages at the end plus the final page that only contains document identification details.
'Another factor that could impact herd immunity is whether other coronaviruses – those that cause the common cold, for example – offer protection to this one. We don’t know, but it’s possible.'
(Germany’s leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten)
Would explain why everywhere the number of deaths/cases drops after 4-6 weeks regardless of policy.
(Germany’s leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten)
Would explain why everywhere the number of deaths/cases drops after 4-6 weeks regardless of policy.
Why would it explain it other than to your satisfaction for your particular version of reality ?
Dont you find it a little strange that no where in the world has the exponential growth of cases just gone up and up.
Regardless of policy the growth appears to slow down everywhere after 4-6 weeks with only a max of 20% being infected.
Regardless of policy the growth appears to slow down everywhere after 4-6 weeks with only a max of 20% being infected.
How else do you explain from Brazil to Germany to UK to USA to Belarus to Australia to Sweden that this leveling off is always happening?
It starts with exponential growth and then the growth rates stop and cases/deaths go up in linear fashion.
It starts with exponential growth and then the growth rates stop and cases/deaths go up in linear fashion.
Gummer kid eating burger
I see a tory pattern around food and risk taking
BE ALERT TO TORY SPAM
I see a tory pattern around food and risk taking
BE ALERT TO TORY SPAM
When folk stay home because of threat the virus growth slows
Funny innit
And he wants to get people out and get them infected
100 threads on same subject....
Funny innit
And he wants to get people out and get them infected
100 threads on same subject....
May 12, 2020 -- 9:22PM, InsiderTrader wrote:
How else do you explain from Brazil to Germany to UK to USA to Belarus to Australia to Sweden that this leveling off is always happening? It starts with exponential growth and then the growth rates stop and cases/deaths go up in linear fashion.
How many variables do you suppose there are in this COVID-19 box of tricks ?
Angoose
12 May 20 20:29
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 16,357 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
May 12, 2020 -- 8:22PM, InsiderTrader wrote:
How else do you explain from Brazil to Germany to UK to USA to Belarus to Australia to Sweden that this leveling off is always happening? It starts with exponential growth and then the growth rates stop and cases/deaths go up in linear fashion.
How many variables do you suppose there are in this COVID-19 box of tricks ?
^
You actually just sit on the fence on everything.
Never have one opinion.
Never put your neck on the line.
Just criticise anyone who does have one.
12 May 20 20:29
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 16,357 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
May 12, 2020 -- 8:22PM, InsiderTrader wrote:
How else do you explain from Brazil to Germany to UK to USA to Belarus to Australia to Sweden that this leveling off is always happening? It starts with exponential growth and then the growth rates stop and cases/deaths go up in linear fashion.
How many variables do you suppose there are in this COVID-19 box of tricks ?
^
You actually just sit on the fence on everything.
Never have one opinion.
Never put your neck on the line.
Just criticise anyone who does have one.
trader have you really not found any experts offering any views of what we should be doing apart from the few who want to treat us like animals?
who is it better to listen to, people who called this a pandemic back in january or those who said there was nothing to worry about?
May 12, 2020 -- 9:10PM, InsiderTrader wrote:
'Another factor that could impact herd immunity is whether other coronaviruses – those that cause the common cold, for example – offer protection to this one. We don’t know, but it’s possible.'(Germany’s leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten)Would explain why everywhere the number of deaths/cases drops after 4-6 weeks regardless of policy.
Drosten has, by his own account, received a lot of death threats and the like from people. Today he (shortly) talked about conspiracies in his podcast. Will no doubt receive more. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/virologist-christian-drosten-germany-coronavirus-expert-interview
.
.
how about someone who warned about a person getting a on a plane in china with a highly contagious disease and bringing it to the uk two years ago?
IT, I'm just not in the mood to play your game today.
It's becoming rather tedious.
It's becoming rather tedious.
why has it taken you so long to reach this stage? i am through and out the other side 
Q: How close we are to achieving herd immunity?
A: To achieve herd immunity we need 60-70% of the population to carry antibodies to the virus. The results of antibody tests suggest that in Europe and the US, in general, we are in the low single digits, but the tests are not reliable – all of them have problems with false positives – and herd immunity is also not the whole story. It assumes complete mixing of the population, but there are reasons – in part to do with the social networks people form – why the whole population may not be available for infection at any given time. Networks shift, and new people are exposed to the virus. Such effects can drive waves of infection. Another factor that could impact herd immunity is whether other coronaviruses – those that cause the common cold, for example – offer protection to this one. We don’t know, but it’s possible.
A: To achieve herd immunity we need 60-70% of the population to carry antibodies to the virus. The results of antibody tests suggest that in Europe and the US, in general, we are in the low single digits, but the tests are not reliable – all of them have problems with false positives – and herd immunity is also not the whole story. It assumes complete mixing of the population, but there are reasons – in part to do with the social networks people form – why the whole population may not be available for infection at any given time. Networks shift, and new people are exposed to the virus. Such effects can drive waves of infection. Another factor that could impact herd immunity is whether other coronaviruses – those that cause the common cold, for example – offer protection to this one. We don’t know, but it’s possible.
May 12, 2020 -- 9:52PM, jollyswagman wrote:
why has it taken you so long to reach this stage? i am through and out the other side
you will like this one angoose, about the approaches of different schools of scientists
http://bostonreview.net/science-nature/marc-lipsitch-good-science-good-science#.Xrr6tR5xKeR.twitter
http://bostonreview.net/science-nature/marc-lipsitch-good-science-good-science#.Xrr6tR5xKeR.twitter
trader told us we may get immunity with only 20% infected i think
May 12, 2020 -- 9:52PM, jollyswagman wrote:
why has it taken you so long to reach this stage? i am through and out the other side
I've always suffered from giving people the benefit of the doubt for too long.
Reading the Guardian interview, and what a surprise to find that IT has highly selectively lifted and twisted a quote to support his theories
Though thinking back, it also took jolly and myself like 3 years each to go to the dark side.
i dont want to gang up on trader, i like him, he doesnt throw his toys out of his pram like a certain poster who blew his top yet again yesterday or the day before.
I've been trying to get home to tell me about his AI programming, I'm genuinely interested, but he doesn't want to play
at one stage i thought he was a bot sent to confuse us for hours on end, round and round in circles we would go.
Q: What keeps you awake at night?
A: In Germany, people see that the hospitals are not overwhelmed, and they don’t understand why their shops have to shut. They only look at what’s happening here, not at the situation in, say, New York or Spain. This is the prevention paradox, and for many Germans I’m the evil guy who is crippling the economy. I get death threats, which I pass on to the police. More worrying to me are the other emails, the ones from people who say they have three kids and they’re worried about the future. It’s not my fault, but those ones keep me awake at night.
A: In Germany, people see that the hospitals are not overwhelmed, and they don’t understand why their shops have to shut. They only look at what’s happening here, not at the situation in, say, New York or Spain. This is the prevention paradox, and for many Germans I’m the evil guy who is crippling the economy. I get death threats, which I pass on to the police. More worrying to me are the other emails, the ones from people who say they have three kids and they’re worried about the future. It’s not my fault, but those ones keep me awake at night.
Yeah, IT himself has the patience of an angel, really extraordinary patience, with the amount of abuse I've thrown at him over the years. Never heard any insults back (no swear words anyway).
They are so alike I have to double check the name attached to the post
Then one carries on the others argument....
Then one carries on the others argument....
May 12, 2020 -- 9:54PM, jollyswagman wrote:
you will like this one angoose, about the approaches of different schools of scientistshttp://bostonreview.net/science-nature/marc-lipsitch-good-science-good-science#.Xrr6tR5xKeR.twitter
Did anyone spring to mind when you were reading this ?
“Aspects of Scientific Life and Manners” where he discusses “techniques used in the hope of enlarging one’s reputation as a scientist or diminishing the reputation of others by nonscientific means.”
One such “trick,” Medawar writes, “is to affect the possession of a mind so finely critical that no evidence is ever quite good enough (‘I am not very happy about. . . .’; ‘I must say I am not at all convinced by. . . .’).” After all, as he writes in a different passage, “no hypothesis in science and no scientific theory ever achieves . . . a degree of certainty beyond the reach of criticism or the possibility of modification.”
he certainly isnt reporting anyone or trying to get anyone banned. i actually used one of his tactics back at him the other day, attributing a view to him he hadnt expressed. a bit naughty but i was feeling mischievous.
no one here angoose, i didnt suggest it to you for that reason.
"If the COVID-19 crisis has revealed two “competing” ways of thinking, it is not between two philosophies of science or two philosophies of evidence so much as between two philosophies of action."
Have you read the governments 60 page document ?
Some decent stuff in it, but also bigger than it really needs to be, elements of a manifesto and early mitigation against the inevitable public inquiry.
Some decent stuff in it, but also bigger than it really needs to be, elements of a manifesto and early mitigation against the inevitable public inquiry.
Wasn't it originally announced as a 50 page document? Did they kindly add another ten pages after all the thick libtards complained on Sunday they needed everything explained to them in minute detail?
The last five pages consist of four completely blank pages and a fifth almost entirely blank that only contains document referencing details.
And yes, it was advertised as a 50 page document.
And yes, it was advertised as a 50 page document.
The spread of the virus throughout the UK with so many regions registering so many excess deaths suggests the slow lockdown has been a huge error.
Relaxing the lockdown could lead to potential spikes anywhere in the uk
Relaxing the lockdown could lead to potential spikes anywhere in the uk
We in the North East were slow to stay home with devastating consequences
Folk in pubs when open but advice to stay out.
Folk in pubs when open but advice to stay out.
In Germany, the states are all doing their own cooking now regarding what opens when or stays closed. Led by chancellor hopeful alphamales Laschet (NRW) and Söder (Bavaria).
Though in all actuality it makes sense with the states being vastly different in things like population density and cases (e.g Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has 729 cases (45 per 100.000 people, 20 deaths), Bavaria has 45.000 cases (or 341 per 100.000 citizens, 2200 deaths)). Just need to make sure to filter out what's actually relevant to yourself.
Though in all actuality it makes sense with the states being vastly different in things like population density and cases (e.g Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has 729 cases (45 per 100.000 people, 20 deaths), Bavaria has 45.000 cases (or 341 per 100.000 citizens, 2200 deaths)). Just need to make sure to filter out what's actually relevant to yourself.
Despite previous talk in the UK that a regional/localised approach to unwinding lockdown measures would not be appropriate, the government document sets out the mechanisms that are in or are being put in place to allow just that.
In Germany the localised approach is actually the constitutional way of doing things. Disease control is the constitutional responsibility of individual states.
Why was it initially deemed inappropriate in the UK? Because you wouldn't really have the (political) structures to organise it?
Why was it initially deemed inappropriate in the UK? Because you wouldn't really have the (political) structures to organise it?
angoose i have some views on two philosophies of action, will post tomorrow and will read the latest bullshine.
the approach should be localised, the experts call it shoe leather epidemiology, it is standard practice. i have no faith the government mean this, they are more likely looking for more people to blame if it all goes t1ts up again.
the approach should be localised, the experts call it shoe leather epidemiology, it is standard practice. i have no faith the government mean this, they are more likely looking for more people to blame if it all goes t1ts up again.
Maybe the government that has decided the public can only digest slogans (with no more than 6 words) is afraid of confusing the public with a heavily localised approach.
maybe they want herd immunity (if it exists) and so want confusing messages and the ability to blame the public if it goes wrong and we end up with a second lock down if we lose control???
you have no sense of hum our edy
you have no sense of hum our edy
Writing about it and actually making it happen are two very different things.
As for the reluctance to previously be open to the idea of different measures being in place in different measures of the country, my best guess is that it comes back to advice they were listening to from the behavioural scientists.
They were being told that the public wouldn't comply with lockdown instructions only to find they were putting them in place before the government.
As for the reluctance to previously be open to the idea of different measures being in place in different measures of the country, my best guess is that it comes back to advice they were listening to from the behavioural scientists.
They were being told that the public wouldn't comply with lockdown instructions only to find they were putting them in place before the government.
Social distancing is unworkable, you can open up every workplace tomoz, with social distancing in place the economy has no chance, the "R" rate will go up and we'll lock down, at that point most will realize that the only way to go is to open up fully, we are going to go the same way as the states although in a more subtle way.
how to keep the R rate down on tubes, in pubs, etc i havent a clue.
duffy what is the latest? i thought the fa said do not void the season. if it is voided, will we ever get started again? this thing could flare up again for who knows how long?
duffy what is the latest? i thought the fa said do not void the season. if it is voided, will we ever get started again? this thing could flare up again for who knows how long?
May 12, 2020 -- 9:54PM, jollyswagman wrote:
trader told us we may get immunity with only 20% infected i think
A study estimated 10-20%. The 60-70% figure assumes everyone is equally likely to be infected.
Let it rip. Lets take whats coming, after all everyone has their time and maybe this is ours. Stop being cowards and lets get it over and done. The fear at present makes me embarrassed to be British.
Running out of time, the F.A. are stating the "perfect world" scenario, but when time runs out there will be one question left, namely, which route will result in less litigation, void or duckworth lewis and that answer has to be void.
I would like to add for the record, Liverpool have been brilliant and fully deserve the title
I would like to add for the record, Liverpool have been brilliant and fully deserve the title
What we also need to hope for after herd immunity is that the anti bodies last for a decent amount of time, no good if immunity it wears off after a couple of months.
many court cases what ever is done imo. scousers will need immunity to all the p1ss taking. when can football ever restart?
Scousers will be fine they've been building herd immunity to pi55 taking for the past 30 years, they should be passing it on in their genes by now.
Jolly,
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate
a massive * by their name even if the season is played out so something for you to goad them with anyway. a shame really as they have been magnificent.
If I was a Liverpool fan, I'd want the season voided and then celebrate the first league title after I don't know how many years with fans after a perfect season next spring/summer.
The stupid turd DFL is said to have made plan that two teams will be relegated from Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga no matter what to prevent any shenanigans with a likely to be relegated team forcing the cancellation when they see their chances swindling (by purposefully getting the team infected or whatever)
May 13, 2020 -- 12:25AM, tobermory wrote:
Jolly,https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate
Interesting article but it then stops. I was expecting an awful lot more.
May 13, 2020 -- 12:05AM, Dotchinite wrote:
Let it rip. Lets take whats coming, after all everyone has their time and maybe this is ours. Stop being cowards and lets get it over and done. The fear at present makes me embarrassed to be British.
Yeh now they have some data and know the NHS will not be overwhelmed they need to let nature take it's course
Thousands and thousands of ways to die and this is just another one to add to it
Better to be infected and have some antibodies than a dose of Uncle Billy's beetlejuice
Really not sure what the science of this all is. The trouble is now as well as not believing the politicos we cannot believe Government scientists either as they lied to support Government Policy.
Not sure what the death rate is from contracting the virus due to lack of testing but 1.5% of those contracting it have died in hospital and care homes. Something like 1,500 have died outside but because of lack of testing we do not know how many others have contracted covid and lived so the 1.5% figure is somewhat skewed. Who knows if hundreds of thousands have covid already. Something like 232,000 of those tested have had covid. How many were tested I don't know.
The economic and financial crisis has been ignored when it arrives in greater clarity we will not be asking why the old were left to dies in care homes. We will not be asking what a shambles the Government have made of this.
The science will only show us with hindsight what we should have done. Unfortunately science has not been used with much foresight or common sense and the result is chaos.
This is not a party political matter. The day of reckoning will come but at the moment we are all doomed while being lead by Dorris Mainwaring and his bunch of hiding cowards and fools.
Not sure what the death rate is from contracting the virus due to lack of testing but 1.5% of those contracting it have died in hospital and care homes. Something like 1,500 have died outside but because of lack of testing we do not know how many others have contracted covid and lived so the 1.5% figure is somewhat skewed. Who knows if hundreds of thousands have covid already. Something like 232,000 of those tested have had covid. How many were tested I don't know.
The economic and financial crisis has been ignored when it arrives in greater clarity we will not be asking why the old were left to dies in care homes. We will not be asking what a shambles the Government have made of this.
The science will only show us with hindsight what we should have done. Unfortunately science has not been used with much foresight or common sense and the result is chaos.
This is not a party political matter. The day of reckoning will come but at the moment we are all doomed while being lead by Dorris Mainwaring and his bunch of hiding cowards and fools.
Wonder if they are super spreaders too?
Nobody would dare say even if it was true
https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2020/05/11/why-are-indians-pakistanis-dying-disproportionately-of-covid-19-in-UK-pressure-on-boris.html
Nobody would dare say even if it was true
https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2020/05/11/why-are-indians-pakistanis-dying-disproportionately-of-covid-19-in-UK-pressure-on-boris.html
jollyswagman
12 May 20 20:54
Joined: 04 Jul 15
| Topic/replies: 9,209 | Blogger: jollyswagman's blog
trader told us we may get immunity with only 20% infected i think
^
I was passing on from a paper last week by Gabriela Gomes of the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine.
Here is the link....
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v2.full.pdf
I am still looking for some kind of explanation as to why growth of Covid in the population goes for exponential to linear so quickly.
None of the forum geniuses (Edy, Jolly, Angoose etc) even dare speculate on this.
I am looking for answers and this paper may help with that.
Opinions please.
12 May 20 20:54
Joined: 04 Jul 15
| Topic/replies: 9,209 | Blogger: jollyswagman's blog
trader told us we may get immunity with only 20% infected i think
^
I was passing on from a paper last week by Gabriela Gomes of the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine.
Here is the link....
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v2.full.pdf
I am still looking for some kind of explanation as to why growth of Covid in the population goes for exponential to linear so quickly.
None of the forum geniuses (Edy, Jolly, Angoose etc) even dare speculate on this.
I am looking for answers and this paper may help with that.
Opinions please.
[b]' In idealized scenarios of vaccines delivered at random and individuals mixing at random, herd immunity thresholds are given by a simple formula (1−1
In idealized scenarios of vaccines delivered at random and individuals mixing at random, herd immunity thresholds are given by a simple formula (1−1
In idealized scenarios of vaccines delivered at random and individuals mixing at random, herd immunity thresholds are given by a simple formula 1−1R which, in the case of SARS-25CoV-2, suggests that 60-70% of the population would need be immunized to halt spread considering estimates of R between 2.5 and 3. A crucial caveat in exporting these calculations to immunization by natural infection is that natural infection does not occur at random. Individuals who are more susceptible or more exposed are more prone to be infected and become immune, which lowers the threshold. In our model, the herd immunity threshold declines sharply when coefficients of variation increase from 0 to 2 and remains below 20% for more variable populations.
I thought that report was very interesting IT and I'm sure we all hope it comes to fruition. It has been yet another parameter where the science has been extremely divergent. The scientists will of course have been fully aware of the risks of the different individuals and thus you'd hope not be basing their science on false assumptions regarding immunity building up in the belief everyone has similar risk, that would be daft wouldn't it?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity-who-uk-matt-hancock-a9510231.html
The World Health Organisation has condemned the “dangerous” concept of herd immunity for managing the coronavirus pandemic.
Dr Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies programme said it was wrong to think that countries can “magically” make their populations immune to Covid-19.
It was reported in March that the UK government was hoping to achieve herd immunity by allowing the virus to make its way through the population. Health secretary Matt Hancock denied it was ever part of government strategy.
Dr Ryan told a press briefing in Geneva: “Humans are not herds, and, as such, the concept of herd immunity is generally reserved for calculating how many people will need to be vaccinated and the population in order to generate that effect.”
The WHO director added: “So I do think this idea that ‘maybe countries who had lax measures and haven’t done anything will all of a sudden magically reach some herd immunity, and so what if we lose a few old people along the way?’ This is a really dangerous, dangerous calculation.”
Herd immunity is an epidemiological concept usually reserved for describing how a population is protected from a disease depending on the levels of people vaccinated.
For instance, when between 90 per cent and 95 per cent of the population is vaccinated against measles, this should be enough to protect others who are unable to get an inoculation – such as babies before they reach the age at which they can be immunised.
Sir David King, the former chief scientific adviser to the UK government suggested at the end of April that ministers could still secretly be seeking to create herd immunity, having “softened” their tests for starting to relax restrictions.
“Maybe we are going for herd immunity? In other words, maybe the policy is to allow the virus to spread so that we have a large proportion of our population who have antibodies and, at that point, we will all be resistant to the virus and the lockdown can be removed?”
Dr Ryan said he was hopeful that Germany and South Korea would be able to suppress new clusters of the virus and praised their test and tracing surveillance programmes, which he said was key to avoiding large second waves.
“Now we are seeing some hope as many countries exit these so-called lockdowns,” he told the international news conference, adding that “extreme vigilance” was still needed.
“Responsible member states will look at all their population – they value every member of society and they try to do everything possible to protect health while at the same time, obviously, protecting society and protecting the economy and other things,” said Dr Ryan.
He added: “This is a serious disease, this is public enemy number one, we have been saying it over and over and over and over again.”
Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead of the WHO’s Covid-19 response, said preliminary data from studies has shown that very low levels of the population have actually been infected with the illness.
“There seems to be a consistent pattern so far, that a low proportion of people have these antibodies,” she told the press conference in Geneva.
“And that is important ... because you mentioned this word ‘herd immunity’, which is normally a phrase that’s used when you think about vaccination.
“You think what amount of the population needs to have an immunity to be able to protect the rest of the population? We don’t know exactly what that level needs to be for Covid-19. But it certainly needs to be higher than what we’re seeing in seroprevalence studies.”
Seroprevalence refers to the level of a pathogen in a population, as measured in blood serum.
Dr Van Kerkhove added: “What the sero-epidemiologic studies indicate to us is that there’s a large portion of the population that remains susceptible.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity-who-uk-matt-hancock-a9510231.html
The World Health Organisation has condemned the “dangerous” concept of herd immunity for managing the coronavirus pandemic.
Dr Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies programme said it was wrong to think that countries can “magically” make their populations immune to Covid-19.
It was reported in March that the UK government was hoping to achieve herd immunity by allowing the virus to make its way through the population. Health secretary Matt Hancock denied it was ever part of government strategy.
Dr Ryan told a press briefing in Geneva: “Humans are not herds, and, as such, the concept of herd immunity is generally reserved for calculating how many people will need to be vaccinated and the population in order to generate that effect.”
The WHO director added: “So I do think this idea that ‘maybe countries who had lax measures and haven’t done anything will all of a sudden magically reach some herd immunity, and so what if we lose a few old people along the way?’ This is a really dangerous, dangerous calculation.”
Herd immunity is an epidemiological concept usually reserved for describing how a population is protected from a disease depending on the levels of people vaccinated.
For instance, when between 90 per cent and 95 per cent of the population is vaccinated against measles, this should be enough to protect others who are unable to get an inoculation – such as babies before they reach the age at which they can be immunised.
Sir David King, the former chief scientific adviser to the UK government suggested at the end of April that ministers could still secretly be seeking to create herd immunity, having “softened” their tests for starting to relax restrictions.
“Maybe we are going for herd immunity? In other words, maybe the policy is to allow the virus to spread so that we have a large proportion of our population who have antibodies and, at that point, we will all be resistant to the virus and the lockdown can be removed?”
Dr Ryan said he was hopeful that Germany and South Korea would be able to suppress new clusters of the virus and praised their test and tracing surveillance programmes, which he said was key to avoiding large second waves.
“Now we are seeing some hope as many countries exit these so-called lockdowns,” he told the international news conference, adding that “extreme vigilance” was still needed.
“Responsible member states will look at all their population – they value every member of society and they try to do everything possible to protect health while at the same time, obviously, protecting society and protecting the economy and other things,” said Dr Ryan.
He added: “This is a serious disease, this is public enemy number one, we have been saying it over and over and over and over again.”
Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead of the WHO’s Covid-19 response, said preliminary data from studies has shown that very low levels of the population have actually been infected with the illness.
“There seems to be a consistent pattern so far, that a low proportion of people have these antibodies,” she told the press conference in Geneva.
“And that is important ... because you mentioned this word ‘herd immunity’, which is normally a phrase that’s used when you think about vaccination.
“You think what amount of the population needs to have an immunity to be able to protect the rest of the population? We don’t know exactly what that level needs to be for Covid-19. But it certainly needs to be higher than what we’re seeing in seroprevalence studies.”
Seroprevalence refers to the level of a pathogen in a population, as measured in blood serum.
Dr Van Kerkhove added: “What the sero-epidemiologic studies indicate to us is that there’s a large portion of the population that remains susceptible.”
The WHO director added: “So I do think this idea that ‘maybe countries who had lax measures and haven’t done anything will all of a sudden magically reach some herd immunity, and so what if we lose a few old people along the way?’ This is a really dangerous, dangerous calculation.”
^
I think more old/vulnerable people will die if we don't do it.
Firstly, by locking down young fit people carehomes are not protected. We have seen that across Europe. Massive numbers of dead in carehomes in Spain, France, Sweden, UK etc even with lockdown.
Secondly, if we have to wait until a year (or forever) for a vaccine eventually the old/vulnerable will come out. If they come out into a population that has not stopped the transmission through people having immunity more old/vulnerable will die.
All we have been doing is delaying things. Prolonging the pain.
^
I think more old/vulnerable people will die if we don't do it.
Firstly, by locking down young fit people carehomes are not protected. We have seen that across Europe. Massive numbers of dead in carehomes in Spain, France, Sweden, UK etc even with lockdown.
Secondly, if we have to wait until a year (or forever) for a vaccine eventually the old/vulnerable will come out. If they come out into a population that has not stopped the transmission through people having immunity more old/vulnerable will die.
All we have been doing is delaying things. Prolonging the pain.
Yes agree with a lot of that was just pointing out that there is still much speculation about infection rates and how in reality these play out regarding the notion of herd immunity in a population.
We've basically got into a terrible position 3-0 down early in the game.
The problems of direct/indirect consequences as time goes on with keeping masses locked up would almost certainly tip towards the latter.
We've basically got into a terrible position 3-0 down early in the game.
The problems of direct/indirect consequences as time goes on with keeping masses locked up would almost certainly tip towards the latter.
morning trader. it is potentially game changing, let's hope other academics can confirm its findings as it would very quickly bring the nightmare to an end. it sounds plausible that there are some who are more susceptible than others i would have thought. i dont get the diamond princess though, they quarantined passengers to stop it spreading and another model suggested without the quarantine nearly 80% would have been infected. i get more confused by the day, that is all i know.
Herd immunity .....
What is it ?
O A P cull is o k ?
Long term answer to a short term problem
Wear a facemask and find your farm shops
What is it ?
O A P cull is o k ?
Long term answer to a short term problem
Wear a facemask and find your farm shops
grant schnapps on live media says he wouldn't use public transport,thats the man whose job is to keep you safe and give you advice to keep you safe,he,s transport minister,he,s running a system he admits isn't safe,you couldn't make this shoite up,mp,s wont work in commons its not safe,but expect others to go to work,and your going to send your kids to school on the advice of these lying cowards
You'll have us all killed Insider Trader!
You have what you were pushing for anyway,people going back to work and getting the economy going for ya.
As someone else said and i thought it was very astute,when the politicians are all back in parliament it is probably safe, until then....
You have what you were pushing for anyway,people going back to work and getting the economy going for ya.
As someone else said and i thought it was very astute,when the politicians are all back in parliament it is probably safe, until then....
Hello, forum genius calling in
I don't discuss the report about the 20% because I frankly don't have a clue. Not the slightest. Nor have I dismissed it because I frankly don't have a clue. Not the slightest. Nor do I really propagate the 60-70% from other experts (besides my quote to point out your very selective, disingenuous quoting of Drosten) because I frankly don't have a clue. Not the slightest.
Could be 10%, could be 80%. Whether I completely speculate and voice that I believe it's 20% or 70% doesn't really matter anyway.
If I don't have the slightest clue I tend to not try to display something as the ultimate truth. I'm more into correcting myths or bull where I can feel reasonably certain that I'm not merely speculating. I'm cocky, good Lord, I am incredibly cocky, but I'm not cocky enough to just dismiss the dozens of hours of work from scientists (without a shady, fraudulent past) in a different field of expertise on a feeling.
I'm not a degenerate gambler trying to make it out like I found and know the ultimate solution to save the world from the apocalypse.
I don't discuss the report about the 20% because I frankly don't have a clue. Not the slightest. Nor have I dismissed it because I frankly don't have a clue. Not the slightest. Nor do I really propagate the 60-70% from other experts (besides my quote to point out your very selective, disingenuous quoting of Drosten) because I frankly don't have a clue. Not the slightest.
Could be 10%, could be 80%. Whether I completely speculate and voice that I believe it's 20% or 70% doesn't really matter anyway.
If I don't have the slightest clue I tend to not try to display something as the ultimate truth. I'm more into correcting myths or bull where I can feel reasonably certain that I'm not merely speculating. I'm cocky, good Lord, I am incredibly cocky, but I'm not cocky enough to just dismiss the dozens of hours of work from scientists (without a shady, fraudulent past) in a different field of expertise on a feeling.
I'm not a degenerate gambler trying to make it out like I found and know the ultimate solution to save the world from the apocalypse.
I'm just a degenerate gambler who doesn't like certifiable bull and myths.
Don't be a lamb with your betting Edy, a bit of discipline and you will be great at the gamboling.
I inserted the plug in to the plughole in my bathroom sink earlier.
I then turned on one of the taps.
I then went away to make a cup of tea.
When I returned to the bathroom, I was horrified to find that the sink was full and water was overflowing on to the bathroom floor.
Now I don't know what to do.
Should I stay alert and continue to observe the water as it continues to flow ?
I then turned on one of the taps.
I then went away to make a cup of tea.
When I returned to the bathroom, I was horrified to find that the sink was full and water was overflowing on to the bathroom floor.
Now I don't know what to do.
Should I stay alert and continue to observe the water as it continues to flow ?
Thinly veiled "Look, I'm so glorious I still keep up personal hygiene during the apocalypse, you stinkers" post imo. Despicable.
I'm drowning here, and you don't want to throw me a lifebuoy
Never mind, I'll keep treading water and some more helpful posters may come along to help me in my hour of need
Never mind, I'll keep treading water and some more helpful posters may come along to help me in my hour of need
Open the backdoor let the water out of the house.
keep insurance policy dry
Enjoy your tea before it gets cold
keep insurance policy dry
Enjoy your tea before it gets cold
The water escape will only cause damage if house has underlying conditions
If houses are in good order we should encourage flooding to gain flood immunity to houses with underlying conditions
If houses are in good order we should encourage flooding to gain flood immunity to houses with underlying conditions
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