R rate in Germany climbs to 1.1

it will be 1.1 again here before you can say  Captain Tom

After yesterdays and todays fcuking idiots the infection rates will be rising,these people want locking up,thick as fcuk..

I know it's a Daily Mail link but the story is not an opinion it's all quoting a Swedish expert and he speaks sense.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8300631/Swedish-Covid-19-expert-says-lockdown-merely-delaying-inevitable.html

Anyway thanks Screaming. I know your post wasn't serious, it was entirely so we could all imagine in our heads the German

"Attila The Vegan Hun" :)

Oh great the R is now taking off

Wait until they bring in the alert system here, constant updates on the R, "R now 0.6 up from 0.5, it is advisory you take extra care and maybe not travel today"

So what are Germany going to do about it ?

It's the ultimate argument against nominative determinism: a son named Atilla who grows up to be a celebrity vegan.

*Attila

How exactly do they calculate this R thing ?

"Absolut kein Verständnis" - Polizei entsetzt über Verhalten der Demonstranten

Die Corona-Beschränkungen werden in Deutschland gelockert. Tausenden Menschen reicht das nicht. Sie zog es am Samstag auf die Straße. In Berlin griff die Polizei gewaltsam ein, in München drückten die Beamten ein Auge zu, in Thüringen demonstrierte ein Ex-Ministerpräsident mit.

Deutschlandweit haben am Samstag Tausende Menschen gegen die wegen der Corona-Pandemie verhängten Beschränkungen demonstriert. Auf dem Alexanderplatz in Berlin kam es nach Polizeiangaben zu gewalttätigen Auseinandersetzungen zwischen Demonstranten und Beamten.

Auf dem Münchner Marienplatz und in Stuttgart fanden ebenfalls Großkundgebungen statt. Weitere Versammlungen wurden unter anderem aus Bremen, Köln, Dortmund und mehreren sächsischen Orten gemeldet.


"Absolutely senseless" - police horrified by demonstrators' behaviour

The corona restrictions have been relaxed in Germany. That's not enough for thousands of people. On Saturday they hit the streets. In Berlin the police intervened violently, in Munich officers turned a blind eye, in Thuringia an ex-head of government demonstrated.

Throughout Germany, thousands of people demonstrated on Saturday against the restrictions imposed by the corona pandemic. Police reported violent clashes between demonstrators and officers on Alexanderplatz in Berlin.

Major rallies also took place on Munich's Marienplatz and in Stuttgart. Further gatherings were reported from Bremen, Cologne, Dortmund and several locations in Saxony.

Stuttgart yesterday

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article207867505/Protest-gegen-Corona-Politik-Absolut-kein-Verstaendnis-Polizei-entsetzt-ueber-Verhalten-der-Demonstranten.html

Fake news surely? Germans are always happy and compliant, I am certain the BBC would tell us if it were otherwise.

Johnny The Guesser10 May 20 09:23Joined: 15 Apr 02 | Topic/replies: 804 | Blogger: Johnny The Guesser's blog
How exactly do they calculate this R thing ?

The answer is in your user name.

No. That's a bit unfair. If you have mass testing in a particular location, and you have an estimate of how long it takes for an infection to show up in a test, you can also estimate how many people are being infected by each carrier.

The greater the volume and consistency of testing in one particular location, the more accurate an R figure you get for the disease in the location in question.

Not sure I understand that explanation ...but will run with it ...So where is this mass testing taking place in the UK ?..

Track
The Government wants to track Covid-19 in the population to try to understand the current rate of infection alongside how many people have developed antibodies to the virus.

Mr Hancock said 25,000 people will take part in the first phase of a large-scale testing study, with plans to expand it to up to 300,000 over the next 12 months.

For the study, initial findings from which are expected in early May, all participants will be tested to see if they currently have coronavirus, while adults in 1,000 of the households will provide blood samples to find out what proportion of the population has developed antibodies.

May 10, 2020 -- 10:23AM, Johnny The Guesser wrote:

How exactly do they calculate this R thing ?

They guess.  And then get paid above average earnings to try and justify it if anybody ever asks to see their workings...

So you need frequent testing of a large number of random people ? - to see how the virus moves ?...I can understand that.

But - the UK hasn't done anything close to that -   so how are they currently accurately calculating R ?

They must be best guessing ! - There is no other explanation.

They are, and then people on here spend months of their lives trying to make graphs and tables from the guesses. What fun.

Johnny: Say the average time for symptoms to appear in an infected person is a week. If you test everyone in a town on the first of the month and you have 100 people positive, then 110 on the eighth of the month, then you have an R value of 1.1.

But it's way more complicated than that in practice. How long does it take to recover? Are people moving in and out of the area? And is it valid to extend that result to the whole country?

So it really is a guess (or an 'estimate', if you like). There's a good argument that with all that estimating going on, there's not much value in carrying out all that testing, if the purpose is only to calculate the spread of the disease. The only real way of seeing how well your policies have been doing is by looking at how many more deaths overall there have been this year compared to other years. The trouble is, that takes time, and you only get the answer weeks later. And Laura and Beff want answers NOW. Will the minister apologize NOW?

But huge decisions are going to be made that will affect (or cost) so many peoples lives on the basis of R moving up or down by a fraction of a percentage point...and R is just a best guess !

Mind blowing stuff.

Of course the r rate is only an estimate? How can it be anything else?

It's predominantly political journalists asking these questions on national broadcasts who literally have no clue. Sophy Ridge this morning, what is the r rate in care homes today?

All about leading and lagging indicators, innit.

Lagging indicators are typically “output” oriented, easy to measure but hard to improve or influence while leading indicators are typically input oriented, hard to measure and easy to influence.

Let me illustrate this with a simple example: For many of us a personal goal is weight loss. A clear lagging indicator that is easy to measure.
You step on a scale and you have your answer. But how do you actually reach your goal? For weight loss there are 2 “leading” indicators: 1. Calories taken in and 2. Calories burned. These 2 indicators are easy to influence but very hard to measure. When you order lunch in a restaurant the amount of calories is not listed on the menu. And if you are me, you have no clue how many calories you burn on a given day.

May 10, 2020 -- 11:00AM, Johnny The Guesser wrote:

But huge decisions are going to be made that will affect (or cost) so many peoples lives on the basis of R moving up or down by a fraction of a percentage point...and R is just a best guess !Mind blowing stuff.

That's absolutely not true. The policy is predicated on keeping the estimated r rate below 1.

My question is what will Germany do....they certainly won't let it escalate so will presumably reapply strict lock down.

Good luck with that.

I suppose the point I am making is that the R rate is quoted (and understood by many) as though it is a fact , which then somehow justifies huge social and economic decisions - when is it currently nothing of the sort - not even close in my book.

They could have a huge problem in Germany now, posy. Public opinion (and actions) are going in the opposite direction to the spread of the virus.

I mean, just look at that picture from Stuttgart. How are you going to put that attitude back in the bottle? Especially now it's all over the papers.

Yes Johnny that's larger due misunderstanding in the media. The r rate is however the best indicator available, as you can't test the whole population on a daily basis.

People should also consider (rather important) the starting point. The higher the amount of infections the easier it is to keep the estimated r rate below 1.

The higher the amount of infections the easier it is to keep the estimated r rate below 1.

In other words, the more infections you have, the sooner it disappears.

hancock through the likes of serco trying to employ 17,000 tracers on phonelines, they think this live saving,live enhancing job is worth £9 an hr,same as bloke at sky/virgin fobbing you off,

1st time poster: Could you do what I do with German quotations, and put a translation under your posts?

May 10, 2020 -- 11:14AM, screaming from beneaththewaves wrote:

The higher the amount of infections the easier it is to keep the estimated r rate below 1.In other words, the more infections you have, the sooner it disappears.

Kind of, but the r rate is a multiplier. So the sum relies on both elements of the equation. So for example Germany could have a r rate higher than ours but still have far fewer newly infected people per day.

ie it takes fewer new infections to raise the r rate above 1 the lower the number of infections there is, as the r rate is effectively calculated back from the sum.

In an extreme example, someone comes into a town with zero infections, and passes it on to his household of three others. The r rate is 3.

It's a bit crude to say the r rate must be below 1 but I suspect the scientists are trying to make it understanding to lay people.

The medical field has unlimited opportunities for nominative determinism because of the many specialties. Pictured here, Dr. Richard (Dick) Chopp is an Austin urologist who is known for performing vasectomies. Really. Other doctors at the same urology clinic include Dr. Hardeman and Dr. Wang.




I know, I should grow up

Unbeleivable they are still trying to peddle this 'R' number as some sort of scientific thing.

The reality is 'the science' on this whole situation has failed.

Those who produce 'the science' do not agree with eachother or even themselves as they break their own rules.

Plane restrictions and face masks pointless one moment and essential the next. You could not make it up. They are guessers.

It appears you have a very receptive audience at your disposal today, make hay

So, we get the R below 1... isn't that just prolonging the agony, postponing the inevitable?

We were told that Lockdown was needed to flatten the curve and increase medical capacity, with that achieved what in the name of f*** are we now doing? ... Pursuing some clown world third way of hoping the virus miraculously disappears in a puff of smoke?

any help appreciated!

Science is too much of a broad term in this context IT. It's scientific forecasting rather than scientific fact. But you can't base policies on epidemics if you only wait for the full facts, as it's too late. So forecasting and modelling is all we have.

Much of it is now logic. We can see from the data that the interventions were effective, we can also see the downward trend. So logically we can start to reverse the interventions but in such a way that doesn't drive the graphs up again.

May 10, 2020 -- 11:47AM, lux wrote:

So, we get the R below 1... isn't that just prolonging the agony, postponing the inevitable?We were told that Lockdown was needed to flatten the curve and increase medical capacity, with that achieved what in the name of f*** are we now doing? ... Pursuing some clown world third way of hoping the virus miraculously disappears in a puff of smoke?any help appreciated!

The nation as a whole doesn't have the palette for survival of the fittest, even though that would lead to the best net outcomes in my view.

But survival of the fittest is what we will get. In the absence of a vaccine herd immunity is not an option it is inescapable fact. No amount of shaping the curve can deny that.

The impact of this virus will only be measured over many years, yet everyday it's the same MSM facilitated circle jerk over short term data sets that are absolutely meaningless in a grand scheme that is yet to play out fully.

Cider
10 May 20 10:50
Joined: 29 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 36,236 | Blogger: Cider's blog
Science is too much of a broad term in this context IT. It's scientific forecasting rather than scientific fact. But you can't base policies on epidemics if you only wait for the full facts, as it's too late. So forecasting and modelling is all we have.

Much of it is now logic. We can see from the data that the interventions were effective, we can also see the downward trend. So logically we can start to reverse the interventions but in such a way that doesn't drive the graphs up again.


^

No correlation between countries/states who locked down and those who didn't time terms of flattening the curve once the virus is spreading out of control in the community.

Journo 1  'why are you allowing people to die?'

Journo 2 'How will you stop the economy dying?'


Easy money every day innit.

Journalists have been asking for the exit strategy for a month saddo. Gvnt said it would send out mixed messages. Gvnt announces they are now ready to set out exit strategy. Journalists say there's mixed messaging.

Journos will be hoping cases rise when we exit so they can ask some more 'hard' questions of the Government.

May 10, 2020 -- 12:09PM, InsiderTrader wrote:

Cider10 May 20 10:50Joined: 29 Aug 02| Topic/replies: 36,236 | Blogger: Cider's blogScience is too much of a broad term in this context IT. It's scientific forecasting rather than scientific fact. But you can't base policies on epidemics if you only wait for the full facts, as it's too late. So forecasting and modelling is all we have.Much of it is now logic. We can see from the data that the interventions were effective, we can also see the downward trend. So logically we can start to reverse the interventions but in such a way that doesn't drive the graphs up again.^No correlation between countries/states who locked down and those who didn't time terms of flattening the curve once the virus is spreading out of control in the community.

It's pretty evident that due to the level of international travel, and densely populated areas with multi generational households, people with underlying conditions, poor health and obesity the UK was particularly vulnerable. i'm an advocate of letting it play out but there's no doubt the infection and death rate is falling away due to the interventions.

My argument is that we will be substantially worse off due to the interventions than we would have been if we allowed it to play out.

The press and the tv companies want to be able to rubbish whatever decisions the Government take and they really would be ecstatic if tens of thousands deliberately broke the distancing etiquette as has happened in Germany so they can use it as a tool to beat the politicians. Sooner or later the press and broadcasting will be brought under State control as in China and Russia and they will have brought it upon themselves.

will they put it on a big billboard to tell us so we can notice ,north korea use the uk daily press conferences as their comedy hour,chemical ali can be heard chuckling in his grave,yesterdsays was given by mr scapps,because mr green was sacked

posy is correct, conflict is good fodder for the media, if they can help it along, they will.

The media are being fed a steady stream of leaks from Downing Street...the papers are not "making it up".

Berlin might be interesting, for a number of reasons.
It has an underground (like London) though not as crowded to be fair, but still the best way of transmitting.
It has its perhaps "un-germanic" demographics, e.g. Neu Koln is a bit "Newhamy" .. (maybe it's something in the etymology)!

Yours
Neu Überprüfung.

Even Neukölln has a population density of only 19,000/sq mile.

Newham has 25,000/sq mile.

Inner London's population density is just insane in comparison with any city outside of Asia. It has the same population as Berlin in a third of the area.

indeed there's been hardly any mention by anyone that London is by a mile the biggest city in western Europe. obviously you don't expect journalists to notice anything even a little bit nuanced but the government should be defending the numbers in that they were starting from a much worse demographic position than the other 4 main countries in europe

Another 3 weeks incoming

I'm not fussed by it they can keep going if they like, I can go for months this is like a warm up so far

Keep it up government, another 3 weeks is just dandy

Thought was only 2000 Deaths there 2 weeks back ? 8000 Now if they have lifted locked the consequences could be Catastrophic ???

Car home deaths rocketing over there

New clusters appearing in Previous Low areas of France

Saw a Brilliant summary of our media the other day:

"We will fight them on the beaches"
"Mr Churchill, will you apologise for not ordering enough spitfires in 1938, when you weren't in office?"

Plan working...send more resources.

I believe this is the UK Governments underlying mantra, and has been since they realised this wasn't going away. This is the conclusion that I have reached having watched this pandemic spread from Wuhan in January.

They spoke to the 'experts' they had knocking around the offices in Whitehall, who had a lot of time on their hands now that Brexit had been done.  These "Young Turks" 'ran the numbers' and presented the output to Boris in a Powerpoint Presentation complete with multi-coloured graphs and pie-charts galore.

When this was leaked to the media and then given to the Great British public it didn't go down too well as they skipped the bells and whistles and concentrated on the guesstimate of approx 500,000 deaths before the fat lady had loosened her tonsils.

At the feedback session in Downing Street they decided a quick U-turn was required and the Chancellor was told that he needed to find a forest of money trees as this was going to be expensive.

Since then we have seen every Tom, Raab and Hancock tell us how much is being set aside to ensure the sombrero is flattened and the NHS is not found wanting.

Of course what this actually means is, as there is no chance of a cure any time this side of next Michaelemas, we will suffer the same amount of deaths, but we will stretch it out so that it looks like we knew what we were doing all along.