Sir Boris aka Bozo, is leading the briefing at 5:00

Apr 30, 2020 -- 5:25PM, Cider wrote:

New cases is almost irrelevant at this point Angoose, it's correlated with testing.

Hardly irrelevant.

Apr 30, 2020 -- 5:26PM, Injera wrote:

I’ll ask again. How does the infection rate get below 1 when most people have family living with them?

50% live alone?

Apr 30, 2020 -- 5:26PM, Angoose wrote:

Apr 30, 2020 --  4:25PM, Cider wrote:New cases is almost irrelevant at this point Angoose, it's correlated with testing.Hardly irrelevant.

well you can't test the whole country.

Apr 30, 2020 -- 5:26PM, Injera wrote:

I’ll ask again. How does the infection rate get below 1 when most people have family living with them?

Actually : One in six people aged 45 to 64 – 2.4 million people and about 14% of this age group – live alone in the UK.

Apr 30, 2020 -- 5:26PM, Injera wrote:

I’ll ask again. How does the infection rate get below 1 when most people have family living with them?

You don't measure the rate based on individuals, you measure it amongst a population.
If an infected person infects others in their household, but they do not leave their house, they don't infect anyone else.

Apr 30, 2020 -- 5:43PM, Injera wrote:

So infecting family numbers doesn’t count goose?

It does, but then how many others became infected ?

So, family member one infects two others, his R = 2.
If those two do not infect any body else, they both have an R of zero.

Average R of the three is then 0.333.

Likely I have massively oversimplified what will be a complex calculation, but you can get the general idea.

Apr 30, 2020 -- 5:48PM, regvarney wrote:

Ardent tory signing in hereGiving the government performance/response an 8/10 so farAlternative of Corbyn, Abbott et Al in charge truly terrifying

That's a rather desperate measurement system, with all of its in-built biases.

"Aston Villa have performed well in the league as they are one place higher than Norwich"

Apr 30, 2020 -- 5:56PM, Injera wrote:

Cheers goose. I clearly wasn’t thinking it through.

No bother, not a concept that we have previously spent much time thinking about.

Apr 30, 2020 -- 5:53PM, Whisperingdeath wrote:

I'm sure the millions of businesses and people being supported by the government are gutted right now.someone will have to pay

Obviously. However there's quite a few people getting disturbingly giddy online about the death ticker. The total impact of the virus will not be known, and be able to be properly assessed for years.