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26 Apr 20
17:47
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25 Aug 05
Most countries have taken some measures to slow the spread of the virus.
But it is becoming clear looking around the world the spread was already slowing BEFORE countries introduced tougher lock downs when you take into account the incubation period. Other countries it is taking far longer for it to have an effect.
Some countries have no official lock down and curve is still flattening
Portugal: lockdown on 12th March level off on 31 March +19 days
Denmark: lockdown 18th March level off 7th April + 19 days
UK: lockdown 23rd March level off 5th April +16 days
Norway lockdown 12th March level off 27 March +15 days
China: lockdown 23rd Jan level off 4th Feb + 15 days
Belgium: tougher lockdown on 17th March cases level off 28th March + 11 days
France: lockdown 17 March cases level off 28th March + 11 days
Czech: lockdown 16th March level off 27th March + 11 days
Spain: lockdown 16th March level off 25th March +9 days
Iran: lockdown 24th March level off 30th Match +6 days
Netherlands : lockdown on 23rd March cases level off on 27th March + 4 days
Germany: lockdown 22nd March level off 26th March + 4 days
Switzerland: lockdown 16th March level off 20th March + 4 days
Australia: lockdown 24th March level off 20th March -4 days
Israel; lockdown on April 8th cases level off 2nd April - 6 days
No lockdown
Japan : level off 11th April
Sweden: level off 8th April
Singapore: level off 20th April
If we look at days 1 in 100,000 citizens test positive until the peak in infections the picture is clearer:
Spain 1 in 100k infected 7th march level off 25th March +18 days
Germany 1 in 100k infected 8th March level off 26th March +18 days
Japan 1 in 100k infected 24th March level off 11h April +18 days
Netherlands 1 in 100k infected 7th march level off 27th March +20 days
Belgium 1 in 100k infected 7th march level off 28th March +22 days
France 1 in 100k infected 6th March level off 28th March +22 days
Israel 1 in 100k infected 11th March level off 2nd April +22 days
Norway 1 in 100k infected 4th March level off 27th March +23 days
Sweden 1 in 100k infected 6th March level off 8th April +23 days
UK 1 in 100k infected 13h March level off 10th April +28 days
Denmark 1 in 100k infected 9th March level off 7th April +29 days
Iran 1 in 100k infected 1st March level off 30th March +29 days
Italy 1 in 100k infected 17th Feb level off 19th March +32 days
There is no correlation between level of mitigation and number of days before the curve starts to flatten.
It appears that between 20-30 days after 1 in 100k of the population is infected the curve starts to flatten with basic social distancing and increased awareness.
Remember also that countries are doing more and more tests as time goes on so the curve could actually be flattening earlier.
But it is becoming clear looking around the world the spread was already slowing BEFORE countries introduced tougher lock downs when you take into account the incubation period. Other countries it is taking far longer for it to have an effect.
Some countries have no official lock down and curve is still flattening
Portugal: lockdown on 12th March level off on 31 March +19 days
Denmark: lockdown 18th March level off 7th April + 19 days
UK: lockdown 23rd March level off 5th April +16 days
Norway lockdown 12th March level off 27 March +15 days
China: lockdown 23rd Jan level off 4th Feb + 15 days
Belgium: tougher lockdown on 17th March cases level off 28th March + 11 days
France: lockdown 17 March cases level off 28th March + 11 days
Czech: lockdown 16th March level off 27th March + 11 days
Spain: lockdown 16th March level off 25th March +9 days
Iran: lockdown 24th March level off 30th Match +6 days
Netherlands : lockdown on 23rd March cases level off on 27th March + 4 days
Germany: lockdown 22nd March level off 26th March + 4 days
Switzerland: lockdown 16th March level off 20th March + 4 days
Australia: lockdown 24th March level off 20th March -4 days
Israel; lockdown on April 8th cases level off 2nd April - 6 days
No lockdown
Japan : level off 11th April
Sweden: level off 8th April
Singapore: level off 20th April
If we look at days 1 in 100,000 citizens test positive until the peak in infections the picture is clearer:
Spain 1 in 100k infected 7th march level off 25th March +18 days
Germany 1 in 100k infected 8th March level off 26th March +18 days
Japan 1 in 100k infected 24th March level off 11h April +18 days
Netherlands 1 in 100k infected 7th march level off 27th March +20 days
Belgium 1 in 100k infected 7th march level off 28th March +22 days
France 1 in 100k infected 6th March level off 28th March +22 days
Israel 1 in 100k infected 11th March level off 2nd April +22 days
Norway 1 in 100k infected 4th March level off 27th March +23 days
Sweden 1 in 100k infected 6th March level off 8th April +23 days
UK 1 in 100k infected 13h March level off 10th April +28 days
Denmark 1 in 100k infected 9th March level off 7th April +29 days
Iran 1 in 100k infected 1st March level off 30th March +29 days
Italy 1 in 100k infected 17th Feb level off 19th March +32 days
There is no correlation between level of mitigation and number of days before the curve starts to flatten.
It appears that between 20-30 days after 1 in 100k of the population is infected the curve starts to flatten with basic social distancing and increased awareness.
Remember also that countries are doing more and more tests as time goes on so the curve could actually be flattening earlier.
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Replies: 26
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Correction...
Spain 1 in 100k infected 7th march level off 25th March +18 days Germany 1 in 100k infected 8th March level off 26th March +18 days Japan 1 in 100k infected 24th March level off 11h April +18 days Netherlands 1 in 100k infected 7th march level off 27th March +20 days Belgium 1 in 100k infected 7th march level off 28th March +22 days France 1 in 100k infected 6th March level off 28th March +22 days Israel 1 in 100k infected 11th March level off 2nd April +22 days Norway 1 in 100k infected 4th March level off 27th March +23 days UK 1 in 100k infected 13h March level off 10th April +28 days Denmark 1 in 100k infected 9th March level off 7th April +29 days Iran 1 in 100k infected 1st March level off 30th March +29 days Italy 1 in 100k infected 17th Feb level off 19th March +32 days Sweden 1 in 100k infected 6th March level off 8th April +33 days |
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Those figures are useless.
Yeah the virus fizzles out just like the hula hoop. |
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I think the short answer is we don't know.
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Lockdown days after 1 in 100k infected in brackets. No correlations with the flattening of the curve.
Spain 1 in 100k infected 7th march level off 25th March +18 days (lockdown 9 days after 1 in 100k infected) Germany 1 in 100k infected 8th March level off 26th March +18 days (14) Japan 1 in 100k infected 24th March level off 11h April +18 days (never) Netherlands 1 in 100k infected 7th march level off 27th March +20 days (16) Belgium 1 in 100k infected 7th march level off 28th March +22 days (10) France 1 in 100k infected 6th March level off 28th March +22 days (11) Israel 1 in 100k infected 11th March level off 2nd April +22 days (26) Norway 1 in 100k infected 4th March level off 27th March +23 days (8) UK 1 in 100k infected 13h March level off 10th April +28 days (10) Denmark 1 in 100k infected 9th March level off 7th April +29 days (9) Iran 1 in 100k infected 1st March level off 30th March +29 days (23) Italy 1 in 100k infected 17th Feb level off 19th March +32 days Sweden 1 in 100k infected 6th March level off 8th April +33 days (never) |
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not when there,s billions to be made out of a vaccine, it doesn't,
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What do you think is happening, IT?
How would it fizzle out? |
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More and more people get infected and act as a barrier as they no longer spread it.
Basic social distancing reduces the transmission rate. How does any pandemic end... same way. |
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thats only assumption, not fact
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thats only assumption, not fact
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The number of people testing positive for COVID-19 is totally dependent on the number of people being tested .
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If you examine they waited 16 days after 1 in 100k were infected to announce a lock down as they were looking to build immunity up.
There cases leveled off 4 days after lock down. Considering the time it take for the virus to get into system, show symptoms, get a test and for the test to come back I fail to be convinced the curve would not of flattened without the full lock down. |
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Surely you need 40-60% of the population to be infected before that happens?
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You are talking about to build complete herd immunity.
That depends on the rate of transmission and the percentage who have had it. So a highly infectious disease you need over 95% to be immune. Less infectious need less. But I am talking about slowing the spread. If 10%-20% have had it and cannot spread it plus the R is coming down anyway because people are more aware and being more careful then growth will slow. |
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who says you can't get it twice, no one.
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True. But who says you can get it again and infect other people the second time round?
And if you can get it more than once and it is still just as severe surely we will never get a vaccine that is helpful. |
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Destroys any fizzle out theory.
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next thread
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I think temperature rises in the northern hemisphere will lower the R rate. The infection rate seems to be much lower in southern Hemisphere countries.
There will be several factors influencing the R rate, population density, travel from countries with earlier infection, transport infrastructure and travel density, weaker immune systems in colder months and age demographics. Will be interesting to see if there are infection breakouts when the Southern Hemisphere go in their Winter. |
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virus fizzle's out and then come back bigger and stronger each year.
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Good lets all sit for around looking at 4 walls for the the 5 years , Better still go out and Rob a bank , Bit longer but same outcome , but possible Financial security at the end off it ........
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Being couped up hardly helps people’s’ immune systems. Aren’t we in a weaker position to fight it after liftoff?
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case , you've got to find one that's open
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Well we all know the plague of the 14th century was more serious than corona, but the transmission of that went on and off for hundreds of years and other diseases /illnesses are basically with us on and off for many years. Doctors are quoted as saying corona 19 will be around for a long time ( years) and living with it will just be a new norm.
One of the reasons these countries like Italy haven't gone above 900 deaths per day is their hospitals are stocked to capacity so as the figures only represent documented cases ( in hospital) I'm not sure how they could get logged much higher as we know those in care homes are off record dropping like flies. |
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Corona is only a baby ,wait till this guy grows up,and his father's name is Sars virus.They are a very strange family,be careful if you meet any of this family ,they pity nobody and try to kill at first visit.
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Italy tests dead people and records positives as C19 deaths. One of the only countries which does.
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This is marvellous news.
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