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24 Apr 20
15:52
Joined:
Date Joined:
25 Aug 05
UK is hiring 18,000 people to track and trace after lock down restrictions are eased.
talk me through how this policy works if so many people can carry the virus with no symptoms and tens of thousand are infected?
talk me through how this policy works if so many people can carry the virus with no symptoms and tens of thousand are infected?
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https://theconversation.com/how-south-korea-flattened-the-coronavirus-curve-with-technology-136202
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/test-trace-contain-how-south-korea-flattened-its-coronavirus-curve
https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/18/21224178/covid-19-tech-tracking-phones-china-singapore-taiwan-korea-google-apple-contact-tracing-digital
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/test-trace-contain-how-south-korea-flattened-its-coronavirus-curve
https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/18/21224178/covid-19-tech-tracking-phones-china-singapore-taiwan-korea-google-apple-contact-tracing-digital
None of those countries were starting from over 100k infections.
It's a massive project that's for sure now that the horse has bolted.
I wonder how much knowledge and expertise would have been accumulated had prototype teams been up and running throughout the last six weeks ?
handjob hancock still struggling to set the welk stall up, 
It's another case of not allowing the perfect to be the enemy of the good.
Will you trace 100% of contacts of new cases ?
No.
Will you be able to contact a significant number ?
Yes.
Do we now have an educated and self-aware population ?
Yes.
And will that self-awareness and changed behaviours be helpful during a contact tracing exercise?
Yes.
Will you trace 100% of contacts of new cases ?
No.
Will you be able to contact a significant number ?
Yes.
Do we now have an educated and self-aware population ?
Yes.
And will that self-awareness and changed behaviours be helpful during a contact tracing exercise?
Yes.
When I say starting from 100k that is what we know of.
Likely to be well over a million cases with people at home not being tested and people with no symptoms walking around.
It seems to me even now with 'lock down' people with no symptoms must still be spreading it about as 4 weeks since start of 'lockdown' in UK new cases still coming up. Same is true in Spain after over 5 weeks of 'lockdown'.
Likely to be well over a million cases with people at home not being tested and people with no symptoms walking around.
It seems to me even now with 'lock down' people with no symptoms must still be spreading it about as 4 weeks since start of 'lockdown' in UK new cases still coming up. Same is true in Spain after over 5 weeks of 'lockdown'.
I keep telling you, but you don't want to listen, that the number you refer to for UK active cases is flawed.
I continue to refer to it as it provides a very simple example of your inability/unwillingness to scrutinise data sets presented to you.
I continue to refer to it as it provides a very simple example of your inability/unwillingness to scrutinise data sets presented to you.
No sure why Hancock was back at the Excel centre milling around people just over a week since getting Covid19.
In Spain you have to self-isolate for 14 days after your first negative test if you have previously tested positive.
In Spain you have to self-isolate for 14 days after your first negative test if you have previously tested positive.
Angoose
24 Apr 20 15:31
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 15,165 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
I keep telling you, but you don't want to listen, that the number you refer to for UK active cases is flawed.
I continue to refer to it as it provides a very simple example of your inability/unwillingness to scrutinise data sets presented to you.
^
How many people in the UK are currently positive Angoose?
24 Apr 20 15:31
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 15,165 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
I keep telling you, but you don't want to listen, that the number you refer to for UK active cases is flawed.
I continue to refer to it as it provides a very simple example of your inability/unwillingness to scrutinise data sets presented to you.
^
How many people in the UK are currently positive Angoose?
Using apps too, how many oldies are gonna heed any app alerts?
What I do know are the numbers of reported cases and the numbers of reported deaths from those cases.
Apr 24, 2020 -- 4:35PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:
Using apps too, how many oldies are gonna heed any app alerts?
That would be just one tool in the toolbox.
So you cannot even make an estimate given everything we know yet you complain about any number I put up.
Angoose
24 Apr 20 15:35
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 15,168 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
What I do know are the numbers of reported cases and the numbers of reported deaths from those cases.
^
Up until recently most of the testing only been in hospitals.
24 Apr 20 15:35
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 15,168 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
What I do know are the numbers of reported cases and the numbers of reported deaths from those cases.
^
Up until recently most of the testing only been in hospitals.
You cited a figure from worldometer and claimed it to be accurate, then making a comparison to the German equivalent figure.
I can give a figure of known active cases for Germany.
I can give a figure of known active cases for Germany.
We cannot actually as studies show that 50%-75% of people have zero symptoms and most people with symptoms never get a test.
How do we explain so many more cases keep appearing in countries with lockdown?
How do we explain so many more cases keep appearing in countries with lockdown?
Youu don't wait for people to get a test. You test the fúck out of as many as possible. And you don't start it until your new cases are down to a few hundred and you have a shítload of tests ready.
That's exactly why the inability to test early once the virus had seeded was so grim. (those with symptoms even stopped in community early march! let alone those with no symptoms on blind tests)
Most of the problems you keep stating are linked back weeks before the lockdown Insider Trading.
Most of the problems you keep stating are linked back weeks before the lockdown Insider Trading.
I had symptoms march 6th by march 9th there was no community testing available to me, 2 weeks before lockdown and no one out of hospital was being tested let alone blind tested.
The testing early wasn't there but it was too late anyhow.
This virus crept in and took hold, we had our pants down and were looking for bog roll.
The testing early wasn't there but it was too late anyhow.
This virus crept in and took hold, we had our pants down and were looking for bog roll.
Does that new case few hundred include people in the community outside of key workers and those with no symptoms?
How do we explain so many more cases keep appearing in countries with lockdown?
This has been explained to about 100 times now. You let the spread get out of hand to such an extent early on that it got out of hand so quickly you had to lockdown to contain it, then numbers went up to a peak and they will come down, slowly, to a manageable level BECAUSE you locked down.
This has been explained to about 100 times now. You let the spread get out of hand to such an extent early on that it got out of hand so quickly you had to lockdown to contain it, then numbers went up to a peak and they will come down, slowly, to a manageable level BECAUSE you locked down.
No, of course it doesn't. I mean relative to where you are now.
Its basically putting power into narcissists hands and oh boy will they run with it 
They've been exposed multiple times over since this thing started, first it attacked the lungs but no enough people were dying from that so they added in brain, kidney and heart deaths to the numbers to pad them
Now its just running through the body like Usain Bolt, but it takes weeks to die ffs
Making it up as they go and people are buying it like the idiots they are ffs
They've been exposed multiple times over since this thing started, first it attacked the lungs but no enough people were dying from that so they added in brain, kidney and heart deaths to the numbers to pad them
Now its just running through the body like Usain Bolt, but it takes weeks to die ffs
Making it up as they go and people are buying it like the idiots they are ffs
None of the science has said that the numbers over the peak would reduce rapidly, quite the opposite they have stated to death it wouldn't be the case on the daily briefings.
They can't give exact numbers but the shape of the curve is as they expected.
The curve without a lockdown was steep and exponential and cases/deaths from such a high number would have seen a steeper decline the other side but still much higher numbers on the way down until it had run through the population with herd immunity taking effect.
They can't give exact numbers but the shape of the curve is as they expected.
The curve without a lockdown was steep and exponential and cases/deaths from such a high number would have seen a steeper decline the other side but still much higher numbers on the way down until it had run through the population with herd immunity taking effect.
What they do in China is quarantine suspected cases before they're tested. So, they test loads, someone tests positive, their contacts are traced and they are quarantined BEFORE they get tested. Not sure if that is what is being proposed over here but it should be.
There will always be asymptomatic spreaders no matter what you do. You don't need to worry about them so much because they won't be a burden on the health system. You have to test and aggressively track and quarantine, keeping an eye on the health system capacity and what your infection rate is at a higher testing level and if as soon as it looks like it might get out of hand, take appropriate measures ASAP to keep it in check, instead of doing nothing and letting it spread again quickly like at the start. The goal is to not let it get out of hand again like it did the first time. If you release lockdown while near the top of the peak you are going to get back to peak very quickly and have to lock down again. Releasing lockdown will lead to increased spread, but you will be in a position to control it because you'll be ready for it this time and you'll be starting from a much lower number of problem cases than you have now.
There will always be asymptomatic spreaders no matter what you do. You don't need to worry about them so much because they won't be a burden on the health system. You have to test and aggressively track and quarantine, keeping an eye on the health system capacity and what your infection rate is at a higher testing level and if as soon as it looks like it might get out of hand, take appropriate measures ASAP to keep it in check, instead of doing nothing and letting it spread again quickly like at the start. The goal is to not let it get out of hand again like it did the first time. If you release lockdown while near the top of the peak you are going to get back to peak very quickly and have to lock down again. Releasing lockdown will lead to increased spread, but you will be in a position to control it because you'll be ready for it this time and you'll be starting from a much lower number of problem cases than you have now.
Everything we have done, all the graphs, all the numbers, have been achieved under an artificial approach, we have flattened the curve, the virus has not been exhausted, when we allow the virus access to more people by way of relaxing the measures it will rise again. Only when the curve goes down whilst the virus has free reign to all potential victims will there be any encouragement to be had.
Our whole approach is designed to control the victims through the hospitals a few at a time until it's done.
Our whole approach is designed to control the victims through the hospitals a few at a time until it's done.
Any bacteria/virus after 2 months of lockdown will be long gone ffs
It doesn't survive without a living host, its probably long gone now
It doesn't survive without a living host, its probably long gone now
serious question,whilst we,re locked down where is the virus hiding and waiting
Wherever people are going, the measures in place have clearly massively disrupted it's ability to spread,unless like some on here you think all the data available is horsesh1t.
People still go out and touch things, 3 people were coughing in the long supermarket queue I was in yesterday. No symptoms still touching things, social distancing won't ever be 100% observed.Not everyone will wash their hands or not touch their faces.
People still go out and touch things, 3 people were coughing in the long supermarket queue I was in yesterday. No symptoms still touching things, social distancing won't ever be 100% observed.Not everyone will wash their hands or not touch their faces.
The testing has been ramped right up this month so you'd expect the confirmed cases not to fall away for a while.
they say its not airbourn.
they say it only stays active on a hard surface for a few hrs
the place in the country thatsstill the most active tubes,work etc is London,which is seeing the biggest declines in virus
doesnt add up does it
they say it only stays active on a hard surface for a few hrs
the place in the country thatsstill the most active tubes,work etc is London,which is seeing the biggest declines in virus
doesnt add up does it
maybe the virus is taking longer to show symptoms than first thought.
the need to test is there, its not been done, they are slowly getting there.
by locking down too late , allowing the free spread and not tracing infections all
that folk can do is guess as to reasons for the anomalys
the need to test is there, its not been done, they are slowly getting there.
by locking down too late , allowing the free spread and not tracing infections all
that folk can do is guess as to reasons for the anomalys
Wouldn't you expect a big change in London? as it was hardest hit and earlier. Transport may still be running but the numbers are massively down in usage (unless all the daily briefing transport data is tosh).
London is obviously hugely dense in numbers usually and it isn't now but obviously there's still people around.
You are testing more and this will only increase in coming days and the virus is still circulating just not as much. Lockdown can't be 100% it would never be predicted as being so.
London is obviously hugely dense in numbers usually and it isn't now but obviously there's still people around.
You are testing more and this will only increase in coming days and the virus is still circulating just not as much. Lockdown can't be 100% it would never be predicted as being so.
SontaranStratagem 24 Apr 20 16:45
Any bacteria/virus after 2 months of lockdown will be long gone ffs
It doesn't survive without a living host, its probably long gone now
The only way that "might" work is if the whole planet locked down and absolutely no-one for any reason at all went outside for any reason, at the moment even us who are in "lock down" can still pretty much go out whenever we want.
Aside from all of that though is that the virus can live in cross species i.e. a species of bat resident in china, so it doesn't need humans as such.
Any bacteria/virus after 2 months of lockdown will be long gone ffs
It doesn't survive without a living host, its probably long gone now
The only way that "might" work is if the whole planet locked down and absolutely no-one for any reason at all went outside for any reason, at the moment even us who are in "lock down" can still pretty much go out whenever we want.
Aside from all of that though is that the virus can live in cross species i.e. a species of bat resident in china, so it doesn't need humans as such.
About 30% of the population are still out and about or live with someone that is, 10.7 million key workers plus their households. Lockdown is never getting rid of it, you would need this group to develop herd immunity. Even then the other 70% can catch it in the supermarket or a shared door handle to a block of flats.
yes and only go for testing if you have symptoms,re the 5.00 briefing and yet as op says most people have the virus without knowing,n this has been shambolic by the gov and top scientist etc in the country , pathetic, and the journalist pathetic, sophie ridge asking today about planes coming in etc, this ? should be asked 3 weeks or more ago
blank
24 Apr 20 17:30
Joined: 30 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 264 | Blogger: blank's blog
About 30% of the population are still out and about or live with someone that is, 10.7 million key workers plus their households. Lockdown is never getting rid of it, you would need this group to develop herd immunity. Even then the other 70% can catch it in the supermarket or a shared door handle to a block of flats.
^
Interesting. I suppose everyone having to go to the few shops that are open in a concentrated manner also increases the spread?
24 Apr 20 17:30
Joined: 30 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 264 | Blogger: blank's blog
About 30% of the population are still out and about or live with someone that is, 10.7 million key workers plus their households. Lockdown is never getting rid of it, you would need this group to develop herd immunity. Even then the other 70% can catch it in the supermarket or a shared door handle to a block of flats.
^
Interesting. I suppose everyone having to go to the few shops that are open in a concentrated manner also increases the spread?
Lockdown is not about getting rid of it. It is about slowing a spread that has got out of hand. Try again.
A concentrated manner?
Far fewer allowed in at any one time and distancing in queues?
And if everyone is out going where they please you'd have it better?
Far fewer allowed in at any one time and distancing in queues?
And if everyone is out going where they please you'd have it better?
100% of the population being 'out and about' and more wouldn't spread it a bit more, no?
Apr 24, 2020 -- 6:49PM, InsiderTrader wrote:
blank24 Apr 20 17:30Joined: 30 Sep 10| Topic/replies: 264 | Blogger: blank's blogAbout 30% of the population are still out and about or live with someone that is, 10.7 million key workers plus their households. Lockdown is never getting rid of it, you would need this group to develop herd immunity. Even then the other 70% can catch it in the supermarket or a shared door handle to a block of flats.^Interesting. I suppose everyone having to go to the few shops that are open in a concentrated manner also increases the spread?
Yes of course. I used to go at 6am after work and the place was empty, now I queue outside because they've restricted opening times. More supermarkets would help and longer opening hours, I don't know why it takes them 12 hours to stack the shelves.
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