Have Sweden flattened the curve without trashing the economy?

edy
20 May 20 14:33
Joined: 13 Dec 06
| Topic/replies: 228,125 | Blogger: edy's blog

    May 20, 2020 -- 2:20PM, 1st time poster wrote:


    trump,bolsanero,doris,yellow duck quacks


Trump, Putin, Boris, Bolsonaro

Coincidence that three of the world's four corona leaders are strong men populists where reality is optional? (plus Boris as someone who trapped himself in that role even though he would also make a good libtard)

^

Macron, Conte and Sánchez.

Doesn't work to single out Trump and Boris as EU lovers and socialists are in there too.

They ain't in the top 4

Same thicko club members are

Sophie Wilmès is the worst in Belgium on deaths per million at 790 (did lockdown)

Followed by

Spain 594 (did lockdown)
Italy 532 (did lockdown)
UK 521(did lockdown)
France 429 (did lockdown)
Sweden 380 (no lockdown)
Netherlands 336 (did lockdown)
Ireland 317 (did lockdown)
USA 283 (did lockdown - kind of but encouraged to resist)
Switzerland 219 (did lockdown)
Canada 157 (did lockdown)
Portugal  124 (did lockdown)
Germany 98 (did lockdown)
Denmark 96 (did lockdown)
Peru 89
Iran 86
Brazil 85 (did lockdown in places encouraged not to)
Russia 20 (did lockdown in places)
Belarus 19 (no lock down)
Greece 16 (harsh lock down)

No correlation between lockdown and deaths.

Simple social distancing advise and protection of old/vulnerable is the key to this.

I wonder after the second and third wave some of the countries you have done well so far wont look so clever.

Yes, that's the irony, N.Z. for example are prisoners in their own back yard

Spain and Italy were in unknown territory

UK is governed by a fool who helped spread the virus.

Clear that lockdown works



2nd and 3rd wave may well be telling, but may be worse in countries
with more laissez-faire attitudes for all we know

Inside Trader I like how you omitted Hong Kong & South Korea 2 outliers of success after stringent lockdown CherryPicking

However, as the weeks have gone on the feeling is that less than first thought have actually had the virus, I remember early on there was talk of 30-40 million had thought to have had it, you don't hear those numbers now though. If then we have lost all these many 1,000's and we are nowhere near herd immunity then it's even more of a disaster.

We did neither the herd immunity route nor the hard lock down route, we took the worst option of the neither here nor there approach

----you-have-to-laugh---
20 May 20 15:12
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 8,415 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
Spain and Italy were in unknown territory

UK is governed by a fool who helped spread the virus.

Clear that lockdown works

^

Where did it work? France? UK? Netherlands? Ireland?

More selective guff I t

You know where it worked as you chose to selectively remove
Them from your comparison table

Also Blighty locked down after the horse had already bolted, some other countries did the same.

Lockdowns work especially when properly implemented.

Indeed

And alongside track and trace

Lockdown and crisps destroyed Taylor's career just as she had gotten fitter.

Evidence guys.

We have a list of countries and there is zero correlation between lock down and no lockdown.

Everywhere after 4-6 weeks the spread of the virus declines whatever you do.

The only way to stop that effect is to seal the country off like NZ, Taiwan, HK etc. In those countries if/when they open up they will get the same 4-6 spread/decline pattern.

Yet to see a place on the global where the exponential growth of cases does not become linear very quickly regardless of policy.

Give we one place where exponential growth has happened after the few weeks of significant numbers of infection.

Just one place will do.

My above post was kind of meant for another thread

The big problem with lockdown is its a one time method. With no vaccine we might get a dozen outbreaks of this. You cant keep locking down every time.  If theres no second wave then I think id admit that lockdown was worthwhile. I just dont think that will be the case and what will happen is we will have ruined the economy and still have to face up to the virus.

May 20, 2020 -- 4:35PM, InsiderTrader wrote:

Evidence guys.We have a list of countries and there is zero correlation between lock down and no lockdown.Everywhere after 4-6 weeks the spread of the virus declines whatever you do.The only way to stop that effect is to seal the country off like NZ, Taiwan, HK etc. In those countries if/when they open up they will get the same 4-6 spread/decline pattern.Yet to see a place on the global where the exponential growth of cases does not become linear very quickly regardless of policy.Give we one place where exponential growth has happened after the few weeks of significant numbers of infection.Just one place will do.

"The only way to stop that effect is to seal the country off like NZ, Taiwan, HK etc. In those countries if/when they open up they will get the same 4-6 spread/decline pattern."

Hong Kong began lifting lockdown 2 weeks ago

HK have ended the 14 day quarantine required for people flying in since March? I did not know that. Will be interesting to see how that works out.

Greek gov’t announces tourism plan. Flight corridor to Athens only

15/6 open to countries “with compatible epidemiological profiles” Balkans, Baltic, AUT, Scandi (not SWE), DEU, ISR.

1/7 open to all EXCEPT those “with incompatible epidemiological profiles” (sorry UK, US etc.)

don't shoot the messenger but a study out today ,says if uk went in to lockdown a week earlier 11,500 lives may have been saved

Another masterpiece by Neil Ferguson?

only read the headline IT, mail on line

You read it wrong.

It suggests the death toll would have been 11200 had lockdown started a week earlier.

Looking at the model it was extremely basic. No element in it for carehomes and 10 million key workers still being about and about from what I can see. Extremely basic and useless in the real world. Would be like trying to find value in horseracing markets just using the position of the horses in their last race. Completely pointless. John Dagpunar is wasting everyone's time with that.

This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.09.20096859v2.full.pdf

That’s him told

Useless but showing lockdown works

So you better attempt to rubbish it.

Useless but showing lockdown works

So you better attempt to rubbish it.

"Sweden tops Europe COVID-19 deaths per capita over last seven days"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-casualties/sweden-tops-europe-covid-19-deaths-per-capita-over-last-seven-days-idUSKBN22V26A

put it another post but didn't get any bites,but some number,s stack up to say fergerson model was very accurate

experts reckon 10% of population have had virus

60/805 was considered needed for herd immunity

the guy on THE TIMES stands by daily on his 63,000 excessive deaths figure

so for 60% herd immunity  6 x 63,000  =  378,000

so for 80% herd immunity  8 x 63,000  =   504,000


not a bad model from 10 weeks ago

Lockdowns work

May 21, 2020 -- 2:29PM, 1st time poster wrote:

put it another post but didn't get any bites,but some number,s stack up to say fergerson model was very accurateexperts reckon 10% of population have had virus60/805 was considered needed for herd immunitythe guy on THE TIMES stands by daily on his 63,000 excessive deaths figureso for 60% herd immunity  6 x 63,000  =  378,000so for 80% herd immunity  8 x 63,000  =   504,000not a bad model from 10 weeks ago

60/805 was considered needed for herd immunity

Was but that number has changed to 10%-20%.

As Norway has shown lockdown not required if you social distance and wash hands.

Lol insider traitor still plugging away on his worst own goal thread

.

May 28, 2020 -- 5:43PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

Lol insider traitor still plugging away on his worst own goal thread

It what way is it an 'own goal'?

There is no evidence whatsoever that lockdown saved one life in the UK and not doing it in Sweden cost lives.

You can support Boris and his government as much as you like but until evidence is produced to suggest lockdown saved lives I will continue to say Boris got it wrong.

You are deluded

May 29, 2020 -- 2:02PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

You are deluded

You are completely blinkered in your sycophant style support of Boris, Macron etc and the few scientists that supported trashing the economy with absurd lockdowns of the fit and healthy.

You seem unable to debate.

If Sweden had hit tens of thousands of deaths I would have been the first to admit to got it wrong.

No you are blinkered by starting these threads on ideas you find elsewhere.

Infesting the forum with whack job copy threads

May 29, 2020 -- 2:10PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

No you are blinkered by starting these threads on ideas you find elsewhere.Infesting the forum with whack job copy threads

'Whack Job'?

Quite bizarre. Do you think the Swedes are 'Whack Jobs'? How about Norway?

What makes you so sure that lockdown has had a positive effect?

Professor Ferguson should lose his phd.
He has frightened the conformists into a state of total inertia/idleness.
Tickle their chins, they may come out, the cowards

The thread ideas are from whack job sites

I've explained the difference to you several times before



Hey ho, no doubt when flustered you will try the tactic again

Sweden boldly holding on to number one spot in the per capita deaths league.


Go Sweden.

So you think the Swedish government and their scientists are 'whack jobs'?

Is any scientist that questions lockdown a 'whack job'?

Lol

Your English comprehension is letting you down badly here

May 29, 2020 -- 2:27PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

LolYour English comprehension is letting you down badly here

Refusing to answer basic question.

You rather just write insults than put forward a case.

I have answered the question

And added comment that I have previously answered same

If you are not able to comprehend or choose not to it is not my fault

May 29, 2020 -- 2:23PM, InsiderTrader wrote:

So you think the Swedish government and their scientists are 'whack jobs'?Is any scientist that questions lockdown a 'whack job'?

Not interested in debating.

Resorting to have a go at my disability instead.

Shame you cannot have a proper discussion.

I refer you to my earlier answer to the very same question

We have engaged in debate, you have lost and are now being silly

Because you can't understand english

Sweden left out of Nordic border reopenings
A Nordic rift has opened up over plans to ease coronavirus restrictions, with Sweden excluded from plans by Denmark and Norway to reopen their borders to tourists from some countries next month.

During news conferences taking place simultaneously on Friday, the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, and the Norwegian prime minister, Erna Solberg, said most restrictions would end on 15 June.

The leaders said they would allow tourists to travel between the two countries, and Denmark will also welcome tourists from Germany and Iceland.

But tourists from Sweden will still not be able to visit, with Frederiksen telling journalists that the two countries were in different places when it came to the coronavirus.

On Friday Sweden’s public health authority reported a further 84 deaths from Covid-19. The country’s total death toll from the outbreak now stands at 4,350, about four times the combined total of the other Nordic countries. Sweden has chosen not to impose the kinds of compulsory lockdown measures imposed by its neighbours and elsewhere across Europe, instead opting for public health advice.

Earlier this week, Sweden’s foreign minister, Ann Linde, warned that excluding Sweden from moves to open borders across the Nordic region would be a political decision and not justifiable on health grounds. On Thursday, Norway said it would reopen its borders to business travel from all its Nordic neighbours.

They achieved the title of the thread. Well done Sweden.

Flattening the curve = having the highest death rate in the world.



What a time to be alive!

brazil going to blow everyone out of the water ,going to get my thinking head on and try and make a connection between
bolsanaro/trump/doris/cumming,s must be something there, just cant put my finger on it[ said the bishop to the choirboy ]

Mile behind the Scots Per million death rate , Has Jimmy any connection to them ??

The whole lockdown thing was a waste of time and money....

Did you see the scenes yesterday at Durdle door..... No one cares...

No surprise that folks now have a “who cares” attitude, we were told this virus was a deadly killer, a monster, the reality is almost no one knows anyone who’s died of it, which is why fear has now turned to indifference, virus! what virus? once again they overplayed project fear.

Bloody hell

Never a good idea imo,you have countries now that can domestically keep their economy going as have little/no cases,too few in the population infected to have herd immunity,only deaths and a half economy this route.
How long will this continue while other countries are relatively good?

Interesting the countries they choose to compare Sweden to.

For instance why is Iceland on their list? A country of under 400k people with 10 deaths. France and UK are closer to Sweden than Iceland.

Sweden is mid-rank in Europe. With countries that locked down above and below it.

Lockdown itself is not the issue. It is all about how the old/vulverable were cared for.

Remember when this thread started everyone was saying we need 'lockdown' to flatten the curve.

Well everywhere lockdown or no lockdown has flattened the curve.

Are Estonia, Denmark, Finland, and Norway valid countries for comparison purposes ?

All countries should be compared for excess death figures in a year or so.

Then we also see how many died in carehomes etc due to lack of access to healthcare due to lockdown.

'Prof Lockdown' Neil Ferguson admits Sweden used same science as UK 

The scientist behind lockdown in the UK has admitted that Sweden has achieved roughly the same suppression of coronavirus without draconian restrictions.

Neil Ferguson, who became known as “professor lockdown” after convincing Boris Johnson to radically curtail everyday freedoms, acknowledged that, despite relying on “quite similar science”, the Swedish authorities had “got a long way to the same effect” without a full lockdown.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/02/prof-lockdown-neil-ferguson-admits-sweden-used-science-uk-has/

Are Estonia, Denmark, Finland, and Norway valid countries for comparison purposes ?

All countries are valid Angoose.

Every country in the world.

So that's a yes then.

644 posts and the 645th could have been the 1st and last

bloke in charge of sweedish response said he got it wrong

Insider traitor will double down again, that's what he does.

Hey ho

Ferguson saying that the virus was much more advanced in the UK than he thought when he modeled it and also saying Sweden has suppressed the virus the same as the UK without needed a lockdown is a massive statement.

Jun 3, 2020 -- 11:55AM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

Insider traitor will double down again, that's what he does.Hey ho

Why do you write 'insider traitor'?

Suddenly, we're paying attention to Ferguson again.


What a time to be alive.

Jun 3, 2020 -- 12:00PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:

Suddenly, we're paying attention to Ferguson again.What a time to be alive.

Ferguson saying his models had the wrong inputs given that they were the basis for the UK lockdown is quite a big change PP.

Everyone is wrong at times but the pushing of herd immunity was tantamount to murder imo.The countries that locked down quick can operate and are,a messy drawn out affair now for herd immunity advocates,idiots who have cost lives.

Remember Gupta from the start suggested that the virus was more embedded in the UK in early March than Ferguson thought and thus the rate of growth would be different to what Ferguson thought.

Lockdown after the virus is embedded has proved pointless.

You kept pushing herd immunity on numerous threads IT.

100s of threads

Jun 3, 2020 -- 12:04PM, InsiderTrader wrote:

Lockdown after the virus is embedded has proved pointless.

Where is that proof ?

As a by-product sure. 10-20% infected pulls the R down massively.

Jun 3, 2020 -- 12:08PM, Angoose wrote:

Jun  3, 2020 -- 11:04AM, InsiderTrader wrote:Lockdown after the virus is embedded has proved pointless.Where is that proof ?

The proof is Ferguson saying Sweden achieved the same as UK without lockdown.

The proof is that the infections were more widespread in the UK before lockdown than the modeller thought. Deaths peaked in UK before the effects of lockdown could have changed things. Exponential growth of the disease stops very quickly everywhere and it becomes linear and then goes negative as more of the people that are able to catch the disease have had it.

Are you a big fan of Chubby Checker ?

?

Sweden and UK now with more daily deaths than the rest of Europe put together.


Great work team!

Johnson saving Sweden blushes

Jun 3, 2020 -- 11:00AM, InsiderTrader wrote:

Interesting the countries they choose to compare Sweden to.For instance why is Iceland on their list? A country of under 400k people with 10 deaths. France and UK are closer to Sweden than Iceland.Sweden is mid-rank in Europe. With countries that locked down above and below it.Lockdown itself is not the issue. It is all about how the old/vulverable were cared for.Remember when this thread started everyone was saying we need 'lockdown' to flatten the curve.Well everywhere lockdown or no lockdown has flattened the curve.

Sweden is mid-rank in Europe?
For deaths per million Sweden is now 5th in Europe (not counting small countries like Andorra and San Marino) and going by current trend is likely to be second only behind Belgium a few weeks from now.
Sweden's death numbers are terrible compared to neighboring countries which are very useful to compare with.

Jun 3, 2020 -- 1:09PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:

Sweden and UK now with more daily deaths than the rest of Europe put together.Great work team!

UK with lockdown worse than Sweden without.

reports thaT the R rate in berlin has risen to 1.95 after large public gatherings in city since lockdown measures were lifted

300 cases in Berlin with 35 new cases yesterday.

Of course the R rate is higher at the start of an outbreak when number infected are tiny then declines.

The maths of Covid is very simple.

been battered for months on multiple threads on the simple maths of covid,

Certainly not the exponenial growth some of the doomsters predicted.

If everybody has corona r =0

when valance was predicting 20,000 as a result and deaths were under a 100 ,12 weeks ago,even with lockdown measures was it Hopkins uni predicted 66,000 deaths for the uk, pretty damned good I,d say
and although it cant be proved ,extrapalate current known figures and ferguson was spot on and quoted again yesterday by hancock and last week by doris

Rework ferguson with the virus having a higher number infected than he thought at the time and you get different numbers.

High deaths in UK is due to not protecting care homes in order to protect the face of the NHS.

Nothing to do with herd immunity (even by stealth)? let as many people get infected and act when cannot cope,just enough so hospitals aren't overwhelmed?

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/17/britain-uk-coronavirus-response-johnson...

Jun 3, 2020 -- 2:01PM, InsiderTrader wrote:

Jun  3, 2020 -- 12:09PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:Sweden and UK now with more daily deaths than the rest of Europe put together.Great work team!UK with lockdown worse than Sweden without.

Both blase and slow to react, while mulling over the idea of herd immunity before tightening up once it was too late.

We had access to other recent outbreaks elsewhere as well as seeing how it was spreading before the Italy outbreak and both countries thought the rest of the world wasn't doing it right and they could be smarter. Not for long though.

we don't no how many  people are infected,we don't even no how may people are getting tested
last 3 days there,s less positive results but if as some whistle blower says only 40,000 people were tested as a % positive test,s are going up not down,at the same time as their encouraging shielded people to go outside and mingle

Jun 3, 2020 -- 3:06PM, 1st time poster wrote:

we don't no how many  people are infected,we don't even no how may people are getting testedlast 3 days there,s less positive results but if as some whistle blower says only 40,000 people were tested as a % positive test,s are going up not down,at the same time as their encouraging shielded people to go outside and mingle

You got a link?

a link to what the 40,000. was a bbc source on twitter last night,easily solved though handjob could just produce the figures

Are they encouraging sheilded people to mingle.

I thought it was go outside once a day but keep away from everyone whilst out.

well why didn't they encourage them to get out,when everyone else was in

I,m not saying one way or the other,but if the postives are down because people rested are down,its criminal to try and hide it,imo