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18 Apr 20
18:39
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10 Jan 02
A new study in California has found the number of people infected with coronavirus may be tens of times higher than previously thought.
The study from Stanford University, which was released Friday and has yet to be peer reviewed, tested samples from 3,330 people in Santa Clara county and found the virus was 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicated.
To ease the sprawling lockdowns currently in place to stop the spread of Covid-19, health officials must first determine how many people have been infected. Large studies of the prevalence of the virus within a region could play a key role, researchers say.
“This has implications for learning how far we are in the course of the epidemic,” said Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study. “It has implications for epidemic models that are being used to design policies and estimate what it means for our healthcare system.”
The study marks the first large-scale study of its kind, researchers said. The study was conducted by identifying antibodies in healthy individuals through a finger prick test, which indicated whether they had already contracted and recovered from the virus.
At the time of the study, Santa Clara county had 1,094 confirmed cases of Covid-19, resulting in 50 deaths. But based on the rate of people who have antibodies, it is likely that between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara county by early April – a number approximately 50 to 80 times higher.
That also means coronavirus is potentially much less deadly to the overall population than initially thought. As of Tuesday, the US’s coronavirus death rate was 4.1% and Stanford researchers said their findings show a death rate of just 0.12% to 0.2%.
The study has been interpreted by some to mean we are closer to herd immunity – the concept that if enough people in a population have developed antibodies to a disease that population becomes immune – than expected. This would allow some to more quickly get back to work, a strategy currently being deployed in Sweden. But researchers behind the study said not to jump to conclusions or make policy choices until more research has been done.
The study from Stanford University, which was released Friday and has yet to be peer reviewed, tested samples from 3,330 people in Santa Clara county and found the virus was 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicated.
To ease the sprawling lockdowns currently in place to stop the spread of Covid-19, health officials must first determine how many people have been infected. Large studies of the prevalence of the virus within a region could play a key role, researchers say.
“This has implications for learning how far we are in the course of the epidemic,” said Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study. “It has implications for epidemic models that are being used to design policies and estimate what it means for our healthcare system.”
The study marks the first large-scale study of its kind, researchers said. The study was conducted by identifying antibodies in healthy individuals through a finger prick test, which indicated whether they had already contracted and recovered from the virus.
At the time of the study, Santa Clara county had 1,094 confirmed cases of Covid-19, resulting in 50 deaths. But based on the rate of people who have antibodies, it is likely that between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara county by early April – a number approximately 50 to 80 times higher.
That also means coronavirus is potentially much less deadly to the overall population than initially thought. As of Tuesday, the US’s coronavirus death rate was 4.1% and Stanford researchers said their findings show a death rate of just 0.12% to 0.2%.
The study has been interpreted by some to mean we are closer to herd immunity – the concept that if enough people in a population have developed antibodies to a disease that population becomes immune – than expected. This would allow some to more quickly get back to work, a strategy currently being deployed in Sweden. But researchers behind the study said not to jump to conclusions or make policy choices until more research has been done.
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Personally I'm still standing by 0.5% to 1.25% death rate, but I've always believed the number of infected is over 10 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. With such a large study I'd have thought it should be easy to work out if you have immunity or not.
obviously in the UK, with so little testing, I think it will be a lot more than 10 times the official number.
Where did they get the reliable prick test to base their findings on ?
Nobody else appears to have on.
Nobody else appears to have on.
if its 0.12% that means Spain had roughly 16 million(pop 46mill) cases around about 18 days ago...and we had 12million same time and would have over 20million today...honestly its a complete load of bollox
Clyde the "far more people have been infected than they'd thought" seemed to be shown in a similar study in Germany a couple weeks ago.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-antibody-test-in-german-town-shows-15-per-cent-infection-rate-0-4pc-death-rate
But the above is far better.
We've 3.5 million antibody test kits in the UK apparently so hopefully they'll run similar studies here.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-antibody-test-in-german-town-shows-15-per-cent-infection-rate-0-4pc-death-rate
But the above is far better.
We've 3.5 million antibody test kits in the UK apparently so hopefully they'll run similar studies here.
In some places Eric (Bergamo for instance) 0.12% would mean more than everyone has been infected, therefore I agree it is flawed. It's a question of how flawed.
you gotta suspect that these antibody tests and probably a lot of the testing in South Korea/Germany is giving off false positives...probably picking up milder varients of flu and coming back as positive for KungFLu...it would explain a lot of the varience is death rates
Over 40% of tests in NY were +ve and they've done 600k tests. Quite possibly people have been tested twice (negative first time, positive second time). Both the number of cases and the +ve rate suggest the infection rate is higher there than anywhere else.
Apr 18, 2020 -- 7:25PM, Eric.Cartman wrote:
if its 0.12% that means Spain had roughly 16 million(pop 46mill) cases around about 18 days ago...and we had 12million same time and would have over 20million today...honestly its a complete load of bollox
It is possible we do have 20 million imo. No one knows how infectious it is or when it started.
The US and German studies plus Bergamo data are more consistent when you factor in demographics. Santa Clara has only 13.5% over 65, Gangelt has 19% over 65, Bergamo has 25% over 65.
tobermory, there is an article in the Sunday Times (full copy already poste don the politics forum) that will provide a hell of a lot of material for the forum and the media tomorrow.
It does not paint a pretty picture for the government and for Johnson in particular.
Someone inside Downing Street is out to get him, never mind the meaningless Betfair politics forum.
It does not paint a pretty picture for the government and for Johnson in particular.
Someone inside Downing Street is out to get him, never mind the meaningless Betfair politics forum.
lots of antibodies kicking around in our bidies.
hope they have an accurate test.
maybe the antibodies we already have protect us from corona, and folk that lack them fall prey to it.
some folk were immune to aids because of resistance built up to plague , according to scientists.
funny old world, we may find out one day.
hope they have an accurate test.
maybe the antibodies we already have protect us from corona, and folk that lack them fall prey to it.
some folk were immune to aids because of resistance built up to plague , according to scientists.
funny old world, we may find out one day.
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