Chit Chat
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18 Apr 20
18:04
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Date Joined:
25 Aug 05
Ministers and government scientists are drawing up what they hope will be a “three stage” approach to easing the coronavirus lockdown restrictions in the UK in phases between May and July, sources with direct knowledge of the plan told BuzzFeed News.
The strategy will depend heavily on significant improvements in infection rate data over the next three weeks, Britain dramatically increasing its testing and contact tracing capacity, tens of millions of people downloading a new NHS app, the efficacy of antiviral drugs at reducing symptoms of COVID-19, and strict measures remaining in place for elderly and vulnerable people until a vaccine is found.
As ministers publicly remained tight-lipped about a so-called “exit strategy” for lockdown — and some in cabinet complained that they were being kept out of the loop on Downing Street’s plans — BuzzFeed News can reveal:
1. A “best case scenario” being worked on by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) hopes to end lockdown restrictions for certain non-essential shops and industries in the short-term, from early to mid-May.
2. Some social distancing measures could then gradually be relaxed in the medium-term, in June and July, eventually leading to the reopening of pubs and restaurants towards the end of the summer.
3. Long-term “shielding” for elderly and vulnerable people could mean the public being told they face limits on seeing over-70s parents or grandparents for as long as 12-18 months until a vaccine is found.
The timeline relies on SAGE scientists calculating how many new COVID-19 infections per day the UK’s test and trace capabilities can manage, and an “impossible” political decision for Downing Street on how many deaths per day they are willing to accept in order to be able to lift some restrictions before there is a vaccine
Government figures are concerned that the public has not fully grasped the prospect of an effective indefinite lockdown for the over-70s and vulnerable groups. “‘You can’t see granny for 18 months’ is going to be an extremely unpopular and difficult policy to enforce,” the minister said.
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As I suspected I will have to be home for 12-18 months more
The strategy will depend heavily on significant improvements in infection rate data over the next three weeks, Britain dramatically increasing its testing and contact tracing capacity, tens of millions of people downloading a new NHS app, the efficacy of antiviral drugs at reducing symptoms of COVID-19, and strict measures remaining in place for elderly and vulnerable people until a vaccine is found.
As ministers publicly remained tight-lipped about a so-called “exit strategy” for lockdown — and some in cabinet complained that they were being kept out of the loop on Downing Street’s plans — BuzzFeed News can reveal:
1. A “best case scenario” being worked on by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) hopes to end lockdown restrictions for certain non-essential shops and industries in the short-term, from early to mid-May.
2. Some social distancing measures could then gradually be relaxed in the medium-term, in June and July, eventually leading to the reopening of pubs and restaurants towards the end of the summer.
3. Long-term “shielding” for elderly and vulnerable people could mean the public being told they face limits on seeing over-70s parents or grandparents for as long as 12-18 months until a vaccine is found.
The timeline relies on SAGE scientists calculating how many new COVID-19 infections per day the UK’s test and trace capabilities can manage, and an “impossible” political decision for Downing Street on how many deaths per day they are willing to accept in order to be able to lift some restrictions before there is a vaccine
Government figures are concerned that the public has not fully grasped the prospect of an effective indefinite lockdown for the over-70s and vulnerable groups. “‘You can’t see granny for 18 months’ is going to be an extremely unpopular and difficult policy to enforce,” the minister said.
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As I suspected I will have to be home for 12-18 months more
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Replies: 31
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Others will have to risk getting a dose to put food on the table and a roof over their head.
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But isn't it some moral can of worms? Do you expect people like grocery drivers, transport,shop workers,post men,bin men to keep your world turning for you? Can't they die as well?
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So do you think it is not sensible to shield the vulnerable? Friends seem happy to pick up supplies when they go anyway. As for roof over head I do not think it needs any work.
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I never gave any opinion regarding shielding vulnerable,i replied to the little blue face at the end of your opening post because my first thought was the people out in the middle of it.
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Do you think everyone should be in effect "shielding"?
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Good question. No would be my answer.
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The risks might be lesser but can't they die also?
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They could yes. But a young fit person has a 1 in 1000 chance of dying (I think) whereas someone with chronic heart failure is 50%.
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Personally I would take my chances at 1 in 1000 to get on with my life but take precautions.
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A lot of tough decisions require to be made with a second wave appearing somewhat inevitable once lockdown measures are relaxed to any significant extent.
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I know,you are doing the right thing for your wife btw,it might be rough going the next year or whatever but people out in it are worse,they could afaik have health deteriorate in some instance.
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Firstly, it's buzz feed
 But it just reads face limits, what they are exactly not yet determined, presumably. |
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Surely china is the best way of knowing if a second wave is inevitable bar a couple of outbreaks from returning migrants - they seem to have pretty much opened up again albeit with facemasks and social distancing
80% of nike stores are open, car factories are in full production full story in link below, if we learn lessons after this shutdown no reason we cant avoid one as well https://www.ft.com/content/43163250-808a-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99a |
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cant see how you can mandate 2 million most vulnerable in society from their kids /grandkids for up to 2 years,if the argument goes lots of these people will die within a few years anyway and miss va,luable time with their kids/grandkids, it would have to be up to the individuals to decide between themselves surely ,meet up in family gardens/quiet area,s practicing social distancing etc.
mandate them to it and as time goes by and some die without seeing their kids for months ,they,ll vote with their feet anyway |
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^ Good post.
I know a lot of negative talk regarding the long term today, the important thing imo is to keep that re infecting figure as low as you can |
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and if a workable vaccine doesn't appear, the brave hearts out there need to remember that 2 million vulnerable people will be joined by another 2 million overtime and if nhs is continually working on virus victims,those made vulnerable to it through other medical reasons will be growing far faster than if the virus wasn't here, in 4 weeks we.ve already discovered
men are twice as likely to die than women,does that make men say over 40 more likely than women over 50 for example baem peple are far more likely to die from it overweight people and theres people with no underlying conditions in their 20,s,30,s,40,s men and women have died no doubt in coming weeks different types of people will be considered more at risk 6 weeks ago under 70 with no underlying conditions were considered safe,not anymore |
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I saw in papers the other day burnley and boro finally top the league, I new it would come
most houses with gardens and outside spaces, garden cities,who,d have flunked it,  |
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If I was in my nineties I would definitely ignore the advise.
Why stay locked away from your grandkids and everyone else for 18 months when you only have a few years max anyway? I am 44 and I am grateful I got to meet my new twin grand daughters back in mid-Feb before this kicked off. I am guessing they will be walking and talking when/if we next see them. |
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"They could yes. But a young fit person has a 1 in 1000 chance of dying (I think) whereas someone with chronic heart failure is 50%."
Maybe 1 in 10,000 at a push. I think shielding the vulnerable is the only way. The rest need to get back to work in the near future. If they dont by next year we wont even have an NHS. Im astonished how some people can even contemplate a long term lock down being feasible. |
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I don't think a long term lock down is feasible either though the early May one seems right,in theory ought to be past peak then and
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I actually think what has been suggested here looks about right.
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Sorry last post cut out, a lockdown til it gets
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Don't know what is happening with this, i understand your point Dotchinite.
Insider Trader,have talks with pictures through phone/laptop, your wife will like that,best ofa bad job now. |
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The only way way you are keeping My Mo in law indoors for 12 months , is in a prison Cell
It wont be happening , Complete rubbish ... |
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Being over 70 does not make people Vulnerable , many very fit over 70s absolute rubbish , no chance
of it being obeyed ... They can keep those rules for Major Cities plenty of room up here ,If under 70s are masked also reduces risk considerably ..Hardly the rest of the Countries fault the Plans for Mass diversity and Overcrowding have gone pear shaped... |
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if they make the recommendation for 70+ to stay home and they dont the government absolve themselves.
some folk under 70 will want to stay isolated, some over 70s will not. if enough keep distance and transmission of virus falls then we will be ok. |
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Yes spot on , totally agree with you ...
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WE have the Elderly banged up in Care homes seeing a few carers a day , they are not doing too well
My mo in law is 77 , fit as a fiddle wears a Mask , I would not advise any police officer to tell her to go home  She has said if she catches the Virus so be it ..But she takes care ... Nothing more can be done IMVHO .. |
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I don’t think anyone should be forced to say at home but if you are in a nursing home you have responsibility to other residents so maybe would b3 better off with your family.
The vulnerable do need to be protected. I am all for getting back to work but I know we are not prepared. I do not know how long it will take for an efficient system for contact tracing, which, is vital. Sufficient testing is also several weeks if not months away. Without it we are are just pushing the can down the road. Realistically we are months away from a safe return. Personally I would have all utilities back, all construction, railways and road workers. All manual workers in fact specially outdoors occupations. I think many now accept the needs for continual hand washing, gloves and masks if possible. The big problem areas are transport. I still do not understand why hand sanitizer is not available on every tube and train platform. I do not understand why 15,000 people are coming into our country everyday and are not being tested or forced to isolate. It is clear to me this is not going away any time soon. Our leaders are letting us down. I am so grateful I am on the maximum furlough with very few overheads. I have resigned myself to being in lockdown for many weeks. The paint brushes, sandpaper and paint are out! |
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Truly awful -the mother in law won't be able to visit for 18 months.
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WHEN DO THEY TAKE THE LOCKS OFF THE TENNIS COURTS!!! CYCLISTS JOGGERS ETC DOING THE FK WHAT THEY WANT....RELEASE THE TENNIS!!!
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