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16 Apr 20
17:51
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Date Joined:
04 Jul 15
the government seem determined to use all possibilities before eventually settling on the right course of action - testing, isolating and contact tracing. we will get there in the end. give it a couple of weeks and then, when nhs staff have enough masks, this advice will change too.
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The basic framework of a plan for unwinding the lockdown is hardly rocket science.
Simply list all of the restrictive measures that have been implemented and decide how you wish to change them.
You also need to consider measures that haven't previously been used to determine if they may be required in the future.
One example would be how to deal with international flights and any passengers arriving in the country.
You also need to have a continued testing plan.
But then the really tough part kicks in and that is on the likely segmentation of the relaxation of existing measures.
Do you relax a measure nationally or regionally ?
Do you relax it for some job categories and not others ?
Do you relax it for "non-vulnerable" people only ?
Once you begin to contemplate segmenting the nation, restoring rights for some but not others, you open up a huge can of worms.
Simply list all of the restrictive measures that have been implemented and decide how you wish to change them.
You also need to consider measures that haven't previously been used to determine if they may be required in the future.
One example would be how to deal with international flights and any passengers arriving in the country.
You also need to have a continued testing plan.
But then the really tough part kicks in and that is on the likely segmentation of the relaxation of existing measures.
Do you relax a measure nationally or regionally ?
Do you relax it for some job categories and not others ?
Do you relax it for "non-vulnerable" people only ?
Once you begin to contemplate segmenting the nation, restoring rights for some but not others, you open up a huge can of worms.
Create a simple matrix. Filling it in is the tough bit though.
It must be hard to decide when to attack the Tories for them following expert advice, and when to attack them if they don't following an experts advice.
I'm guessing the rule is "Tories always wrong" and take it from there.
I'm guessing the rule is "Tories always wrong" and take it from there.
isnt if funny, now he agrees with the approach i have always supported i have a lot more time for the great professor. mind you, with his track record, maybe i need to reevaluate my views.
we dont have a pm we have a president and with him off sick there looks to be a complete vacuum at the heart of government so no decisions are being taken.
just checking the standard practice for dealing with a pandemic is testing, isolating and contact tracing. this is what the asian countries who have had some success have done. i dont care which party are in power, i attack them because they have made bad choices not because the tories are always wrong.
we dont have a pm we have a president and with him off sick there looks to be a complete vacuum at the heart of government so no decisions are being taken.
just checking the standard practice for dealing with a pandemic is testing, isolating and contact tracing. this is what the asian countries who have had some success have done. i dont care which party are in power, i attack them because they have made bad choices not because the tories are always wrong.
If there's no testing infrastructure, you cam=n't just wave a wand and make one appear overnight. It's not a policy choice not to test in huge numbers, the policy choice is to direct the resources in priority order until the capacity is built up.
Most of the people criticising aren't applying the most basic common sense around what is possible and what is desirable.
Most of the people criticising aren't applying the most basic common sense around what is possible and what is desirable.
In all areas that is, not just testing. For me the biggest actual error the government has made telling people too late not to travel abroad.
A couple my colleagues left for Pakistan the week before the lock down, I couldn't believe a) they were still going, and b) they were permitted to.
Exactly Cider.
If we can't physically test as we don't have the capability right then why keep complaining we're not testing enough?
Germany can do it as they had the industry infrastructure to create the tests.
Same with PPE, it's apparently virtually all made in China as it's a cheap commodity item and there's a world shortage of it.
We apparently haven't made any for years.
Listening to many it's "I want I want" and not taking into any consideration as to what is possible or not.
Just saying you want doesn't mean you get. Some people should be sent to bed early..
If we can't physically test as we don't have the capability right then why keep complaining we're not testing enough?
Germany can do it as they had the industry infrastructure to create the tests.
Same with PPE, it's apparently virtually all made in China as it's a cheap commodity item and there's a world shortage of it.
We apparently haven't made any for years.
Listening to many it's "I want I want" and not taking into any consideration as to what is possible or not.
Just saying you want doesn't mean you get. Some people should be sent to bed early..
different resources go to different areas, we chose to scale back testing when we should have been scaling up. this is a matter all the laboratories public (including universities) and private could have been directed to but werent. if the lock down works we dont need anywhere near 100,000 a day - south korea with a population of 51 million have never tested more than 18,000 a day. south korea now export large numbers of tests.
the biggest problem isnt just down to the current government, our pandemic fighting plan goes all the way back to 2005 and is a plan to fight the flu. the plan was to not do much but wait for a vaccine. this certainly isnt the flu and a vaccine may take years or not arrive at all. the problem the government has is that they still arent adapting to this reality.
the biggest problem isnt just down to the current government, our pandemic fighting plan goes all the way back to 2005 and is a plan to fight the flu. the plan was to not do much but wait for a vaccine. this certainly isnt the flu and a vaccine may take years or not arrive at all. the problem the government has is that they still arent adapting to this reality.
We didn't choose to scale back testing. We decided that community testing and contact tracing became futile and testing actual patients admitted and suspected of covid 19 positivity was the priority.
We are not a rich enough country to plough billions into mitigating for something that has not happened in a century. We did have a pandemic defence but were are a service based economy. Again, it's back to reality.
We are not a rich enough country to plough billions into mitigating for something that has not happened in a century. We did have a pandemic defence but were are a service based economy. Again, it's back to reality.
If you take a very high level view of the response to date, you have to come to the conclusion that the key objective has largely been achieved i.e. ensure that NHS capacity remains greater than demand
For sure there are many aspects of the response that could have been better executed, so once you start to drill down you can pick over the areas for improvement.
Anyone who imagines that everything that has been done has been done as well as it could have been done is a fantasist.
Equally, anyone who imagines that it has been catastrophic is equally deluded.
For me, the biggest lessons to be learned from this pandemic should be focusing on how a future society should function.
To limit a review to how future pandemics should be managed would be a wasted opportunity.
But far too early to be thinking of the detailed cope of such a review should be.
However, I concur with jollyswagman, the cabinet is impotent without the presence of Johnson, and that is definitely an issue that requires to be reflected upon.
For sure there are many aspects of the response that could have been better executed, so once you start to drill down you can pick over the areas for improvement.
Anyone who imagines that everything that has been done has been done as well as it could have been done is a fantasist.
Equally, anyone who imagines that it has been catastrophic is equally deluded.
For me, the biggest lessons to be learned from this pandemic should be focusing on how a future society should function.
To limit a review to how future pandemics should be managed would be a wasted opportunity.
But far too early to be thinking of the detailed cope of such a review should be.
However, I concur with jollyswagman, the cabinet is impotent without the presence of Johnson, and that is definitely an issue that requires to be reflected upon.
Constitutionally it was a massive dilemma we could have lost the pm. The big policy decisions were made though, if he was active nothing would be different. If he was out of service at the start of March it would have been significantly problematic.
was he in charge of ordering the milk or straightening the paper towels?
a bloke most tory mp,s,,tory grandees, hezza,portillo,csameron,osbourne,clarke, considered a joke 18 months ago,now apparently the country cant function without his bumbling rambling, like an injured 50 million striker who hadn't scored before his injury but is now irreplaceable on the treatment table , people forgetting doris is the architect of this complete and utter **** show, only bright spot been handjob will carry the can
How will shops function and be financially viable with social distancing still in operation? Presumably once open they will cease to get the business rates breaks etc given by the Govt, but adhering to 2 in and 2 out or whatever it is isn't the best profit making approach and some business would presumably think that staying closed until people can freely move about is the only way forward. The high street was already under pressure before all of this, it'll be the final nail in the coffin for many now.
considered futile on 12/3 because they did zip to stop the spread and were after herd immunity which was abandoned (allegedly) by the next monday as ferguson's updated research pointed to a disastrous outcome from this strategy. the change to suppression has gone well but it is easy to see why it was first rejected as there is no easy way out. we need to upscale testing, back to doing what we should have been doing all along. testing, isolating and contact tracing was never modelled, why? the public led on the shut down, football, rugby, department stores closing, etc, all deciding to stop. if this had been done earlier less people would have died and we could have ended the lock down earlier.
what happened to the pm's game changing antibody tests? a lot of over promised under delivered carp.
what happened to the pm's game changing antibody tests? a lot of over promised under delivered carp.
It must be hard to decide when to attack the Tories for them following expert advice, and when to attack them if they don't following an experts advice.
I'm guessing the rule is "Tories always wrong" and take it from there.
I'm guessing the rule is "Tories always wrong" and take it from there.
Going into lock down kills people as well, just not from covid 19. As the scientist said on the science select committee today, it needs to be deployed where it can have maximum effect. The lock down measures have been largely successful but compliance was far from guaranteed.
I don't no but they were right
like trump torys survive on 2 ma ntra.s
labours great recession
tory jobs miracle
both now discarded to the history bin
defecit what defecit
3/4 million unemployed so what,its already in the playbook ,price worth paying
like trump torys survive on 2 ma ntra.s
labours great recession
tory jobs miracle
both now discarded to the history bin
defecit what defecit
3/4 million unemployed so what,its already in the playbook ,price worth paying
You've got to love brassneck and his quirky style of writing, contribution pinched from anotehr thread
brassneck • April 16, 2020 6:59 PM BST
wolf,here is two stats for you.
1=nobody has found a cure for it.
2= nobody has found a vaccine to treat it.
Now governments,scientists,and WHO can talk all they like about flattening curves,and crossing peaks,but the virus will still infect until the two stats have an answer,the virus is not saying to itself,"i am on a up slope or i am on a down slope,it is saying ,i will kill everyone i can who gets in my way.
and i agree with you that all the governments of the world are waffling.
the virus will move relentlessly until one of the top two states are met.
governments know that if they let people out they will die of the virus.
the virus did not stop spreading,its people who have hidden from the virus that has numbers of deaths dropping,and nobody knows if the virus has a big brother coming behind him.
brassneck • April 16, 2020 6:59 PM BST
wolf,here is two stats for you.
1=nobody has found a cure for it.
2= nobody has found a vaccine to treat it.
Now governments,scientists,and WHO can talk all they like about flattening curves,and crossing peaks,but the virus will still infect until the two stats have an answer,the virus is not saying to itself,"i am on a up slope or i am on a down slope,it is saying ,i will kill everyone i can who gets in my way.
and i agree with you that all the governments of the world are waffling.
the virus will move relentlessly until one of the top two states are met.
governments know that if they let people out they will die of the virus.
the virus did not stop spreading,its people who have hidden from the virus that has numbers of deaths dropping,and nobody knows if the virus has a big brother coming behind him.
i hope we dont end up in cycles of lock down and release
We're definitely going to be living with it for a long time, Angoose. It's going to be about mitigation.
Apr 16, 2020 -- 7:28PM, jollyswagman wrote:
i hope we dont end up in cycles of lock down and release
Don't we all, but will prevent it other than a miracle vaccine or a "let it rip" policy ?
posters like brass and lfc sometimes say very profound things, but having seen most of their pearls it is a worry when you look at something they say and agree with it 
no easy answers, with trouble developing an antibody test apparently that makes a vaccine a way off too.
no easy answers, with trouble developing an antibody test apparently that makes a vaccine a way off too.
more localised responses, once in charge with enough tests, surely we wont lock down the whole country?
I had a wonder earlier today to a Tesco Extra that is around a twenty minute walk away.
First time I've been there in the middle of the day.
There were around 40 of us in a queue, all very polite and measured.
Once inside, you witness a strange set of behaviours that remains controlled for now.
But you feel it is just a matter of time before we start reading and seeing reports of significant social disorder regarding interpretations of social distancing between shoppers.
Just imagine the scenes if bars are opened up.
"You looking at me" will be replaced by "you breathing over me" as the standard fight starter.
First time I've been there in the middle of the day.
There were around 40 of us in a queue, all very polite and measured.
Once inside, you witness a strange set of behaviours that remains controlled for now.
But you feel it is just a matter of time before we start reading and seeing reports of significant social disorder regarding interpretations of social distancing between shoppers.
Just imagine the scenes if bars are opened up.
"You looking at me" will be replaced by "you breathing over me" as the standard fight starter.
It was Ocado for me before the crisis, not about to change!
Government totally wrong to not follow the findings of the scientists they now follow . They had advanced warning from Imperial college that it was not if but when a pandemic would hit . We are lucky enough that it is not as deadly as it could have been . Hopefully those in charge will have better strategies in place for the next one . It will come .
they have lots of scientists on lots of committees and they dont all agree with each other about what to do, a bit death by committee so not easy.
Angoose,
You go there tomoz and there will be 40 of you queueing in the rain, we haven't seen that yet as it's been sunny since the start, but it's just another thing to pi55 people off hanging around to get in the shops.
You go there tomoz and there will be 40 of you queueing in the rain, we haven't seen that yet as it's been sunny since the start, but it's just another thing to pi55 people off hanging around to get in the shops.
Good point, we've been very fortunate with the weather the last three weeks.
Ferguson is an idiot and should be fired. The other weekend when deaths(announced) was 4900 he was still claiming the range of possibles ranged from about "7000". Since we hadnt reached the peak, several hundred were dying a day and there is a delay in reporting anyway it showed he hadnt a clue.
we have had discussions about him on here dotchinite, he has form for being out by two or three decimal places on his estimates which do in fact look like clueless guesses. he predicted deaths from variant cvj in the range of 130,000 and it was only a few hundred. his group came up with the amazing plan to slaughter millions of healthy animals during the foot and mouth outbreak. yet he is respected around the world, the usa government use him too.
People only remember Paul Robinson for his clanger against Croatia, but still collected 41 caps for Engerland
Ferguson is only covering his own self serving a55.
His model has been shown up as a steaming turd
His model has been shown up as a steaming turd
omg , i was hoping for something witty, that is terrible 
I am not sure that SK method of contact tracing would work in a country like the UK where lots of the population live outside London and people buy things with cash.
Also the privacy issues of using phones, CCTV and credit cards to trace people and then publish enough data that carriers can be traced is not good.
The primary thing is cash though. Tracing would be a lot easier is every paid for everything from their phone. I guess this is what Gates and his mates want.
Also the privacy issues of using phones, CCTV and credit cards to trace people and then publish enough data that carriers can be traced is not good.
The primary thing is cash though. Tracing would be a lot easier is every paid for everything from their phone. I guess this is what Gates and his mates want.
there are definitely cultural differences trader, but i cant get away from the fact that they have done so well and the western world hasnt. imo, this type of virus seems here to stay so in five years time we will probably be used to things like wearing masks in public. i dont like the idea of no cash, i dont trust technology and those who control the technology to look after my hard earned.
Apr 16, 2020 -- 8:33PM, Angoose wrote:
People only remember Paul Robinson for his clanger against Croatia, but still collected 41 caps for Engerland
TBF that wasn't really a clanger, it bounced appreciably over his foot
Just bad luck
he was pretty sh1t, we must have had lots of one handed goal keepers for him to get 41 caps
This Neil Ferguson is a fecking charlatan, he's made some howling errors on several projections.
You can't blame the govt for any of what is going on
They are using the scientists and following their advice verbatim
If they weren't following scientific advice they would be castigated for that too.
It is what it is.
There isn't enough PPE in the world and China makes and has hoarded most of it since January
I've seen the planes full of masks etc leaving countries in the beginning of Jan, destined for China
The CEO of the NHS is responsible for PPE procurement too, not the Health Sec.
There aren't enough tests either, and some of them don't work (especially the shìt from China)
It's not as though the govt are sitting on loads of tests and want to see people die ffs
You can't blame the govt for any of what is going on
They are using the scientists and following their advice verbatim
If they weren't following scientific advice they would be castigated for that too.
It is what it is.
There isn't enough PPE in the world and China makes and has hoarded most of it since January
I've seen the planes full of masks etc leaving countries in the beginning of Jan, destined for China
The CEO of the NHS is responsible for PPE procurement too, not the Health Sec.
There aren't enough tests either, and some of them don't work (especially the shìt from China)
It's not as though the govt are sitting on loads of tests and want to see people die ffs
Apr 16, 2020 -- 9:51PM, jollyswagman wrote:
he was pretty sh1t, we must have had lots of one handed goal keepers for him to get 41 caps
Eng haven't had a decent keeper since Seaman
Yeh he was dogshìt but that actually wasn't his fault
seaman was sh1t too, ask koeman or toothy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m8Q9drqJe0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oq974EmpBo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m8Q9drqJe0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oq974EmpBo
it was gary Neville's fault anyway. rule number one don't pass it back between the sticks especially on a poor pitch
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