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jollyswagman
16 Apr 20 17:51
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Date Joined: 04 Jul 15
| Topic/replies: 24,312 | Blogger: jollyswagman's blog
the government seem determined to use all possibilities before eventually settling on the right course of action - testing, isolating and contact tracing. we will get there in the end. give it a couple of weeks and then, when nhs staff have enough masks, this advice will change too.
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Report Angoose April 16, 2020 5:59 PM BST
The basic framework of a plan for unwinding the lockdown is hardly rocket science.

Simply list all of the restrictive measures that have been implemented and decide how you wish to change them.

You also need to consider measures that haven't previously been used to determine if they may be required in the future.
One example would be how to deal with international flights and any passengers arriving in the country.

You also need to have a continued testing plan.

But then the really tough part kicks in and that is on the likely segmentation of the relaxation of existing measures.

Do you relax a measure nationally or regionally ?
Do you relax it for some job categories and not others ?
Do you relax it for "non-vulnerable" people only ?

Once you begin to contemplate segmenting the nation, restoring rights for some but not others, you open up a huge can of worms.
Report Angoose April 16, 2020 6:03 PM BST
Create a simple matrix. Filling it in is the tough bit though.
Report Just Checking April 16, 2020 6:11 PM BST
It must be hard to decide when to attack the Tories for them following expert advice, and when to attack them if they don't following an experts advice.

I'm guessing the rule is "Tories always wrong" and take it from there.
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 6:16 PM BST
isnt if funny, now he agrees with the approach i have always supported i have a lot more time for the great professor. mind you, with his track record, maybe i need to reevaluate my views.

we dont have a pm we have a president and with him off sick there looks to be a complete vacuum at the heart of government so no decisions are being taken.

just checking the standard practice for dealing with a pandemic is testing, isolating and contact tracing. this is what the asian countries who have had some success have done. i dont care which party are in power, i attack them because they have made bad choices not because the tories are always wrong.
Report Cider April 16, 2020 6:25 PM BST
If there's no testing infrastructure, you cam=n't just wave a wand and make one appear overnight. It's not a policy choice not to test in huge numbers, the policy choice is to direct the resources in priority order until the capacity is built up.

Most of the people criticising aren't applying the most basic common sense around what is possible and what is desirable.
Report Cider April 16, 2020 6:28 PM BST
In all areas that is, not just testing. For me the biggest actual error the government has made telling people too late not to travel abroad.
Report Cider April 16, 2020 6:31 PM BST
A couple my colleagues left for Pakistan the week before the lock down, I couldn't believe a) they were still going, and b) they were permitted to.
Report Just Checking April 16, 2020 6:36 PM BST
Exactly Cider.

If we can't physically test as we don't have the capability right then why keep complaining we're not testing enough?
Germany can do it as they had the industry infrastructure to create the tests.
Same with PPE, it's apparently virtually all made in China as it's a cheap commodity item and there's a world shortage of it.
We apparently haven't made any for years.

Listening to many it's "I want I want" and not taking into any consideration as to what is possible or not.
Just saying you want doesn't mean you get. Some people should be sent to bed early..
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 6:36 PM BST
different resources go to different areas, we chose to scale back testing when we should have been scaling up. this is a matter all the laboratories public (including universities) and private could have been directed to but werent. if the lock down works we dont need anywhere near 100,000 a day - south korea with a population of 51 million have never tested more than 18,000 a day. south korea now export large numbers of tests.

the biggest problem isnt just down to the current government, our pandemic fighting plan goes all the way back to 2005 and is a plan to fight the flu. the plan was to not do much but wait for a vaccine.  this certainly isnt the flu and a vaccine may take years or not arrive at all. the problem the government has is that they still arent adapting to this reality.
Report Cider April 16, 2020 6:47 PM BST
We didn't choose to scale back testing. We decided that community testing and contact tracing became futile and testing actual patients admitted and suspected of covid 19 positivity was the priority.
We are not a rich enough country to plough billions into mitigating for something that has not happened in a century. We did have a pandemic defence but were are a service based economy. Again, it's back to reality.
Report Angoose April 16, 2020 6:49 PM BST
If you take a very high level view of the response to date, you have to come to the conclusion that the key objective has largely been achieved i.e. ensure that NHS capacity remains greater than demand

For sure there are many aspects of the response that could have been better executed, so once you start to drill down you can pick over the areas for improvement.

Anyone who imagines that everything that has been done has been done as well as it could have been done is a fantasist.
Equally, anyone who imagines that it has been catastrophic is equally deluded.

For me, the biggest lessons to be learned from this pandemic should be focusing on how a future society should function.
To limit a review to how future pandemics should be managed would be a wasted opportunity.

But far too early to be thinking of the detailed cope of such a review should be.

However, I concur with jollyswagman, the cabinet is impotent without the presence of Johnson, and that is definitely an issue that requires to be reflected upon.
Report Cider April 16, 2020 6:52 PM BST
Constitutionally it was a massive dilemma we could have lost the pm. The big policy decisions were made though, if he was active nothing would be different. If he was out of service at the start of March it would have been significantly problematic.
Report nineteen points April 16, 2020 6:55 PM BST
was he in charge of ordering the milk or straightening the paper towels?
Report 1st time poster April 16, 2020 7:05 PM BST
a bloke most tory mp,s,,tory grandees, hezza,portillo,csameron,osbourne,clarke, considered a joke 18 months ago,now apparently the country cant function without his bumbling rambling, like an injured 50 million striker who hadn't scored before his injury but is now irreplaceable on the treatment table , people forgetting doris is the architect of this complete and utter **** show, only bright spot been handjob will carry the can
Report duffy April 16, 2020 7:10 PM BST
How will shops function and be financially viable with social distancing still in operation? Presumably once open they will cease to get the business rates breaks etc given by the Govt, but adhering to 2 in and 2 out or whatever it is isn't the best profit making approach and some business would presumably think that staying closed until people can freely move about is the only way forward. The high street was already under pressure before all of this, it'll be the final nail in the coffin for many now.
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 7:14 PM BST
considered futile on 12/3 because they did zip to stop the spread and were after herd immunity which was abandoned (allegedly) by the next monday as ferguson's updated research pointed to a disastrous outcome from this strategy. the change to suppression has gone well but it is easy to see why it was first rejected as there is no easy way out. we need to upscale testing,  back to doing what we should have been doing all along. testing, isolating and contact tracing was never modelled, why? the public led on the shut down, football, rugby, department stores closing, etc, all deciding to stop. if this had been done earlier less people would have died and we could have ended the lock down earlier.

what happened to the pm's game changing antibody tests? a lot of over promised under delivered carp.
Report Just Checking April 16, 2020 7:18 PM BST
It must be hard to decide when to attack the Tories for them following expert advice, and when to attack them if they don't following an experts advice.

I'm guessing the rule is "Tories always wrong" and take it from there.
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 7:20 PM BST
who has said the tories are always wrong?
Report Cider April 16, 2020 7:23 PM BST
Going into lock down kills people as well, just not from covid 19. As the scientist said on the science select committee today, it needs to be deployed where it can have maximum effect. The lock down measures have been largely successful but compliance was far from guaranteed.
Report 1st time poster April 16, 2020 7:26 PM BST
I don't no but they were right
like trump torys survive on 2 ma ntra.s
labours great recession
tory jobs miracle
both now discarded to the history bin
defecit what defecit
3/4 million unemployed so what,its already in the playbook ,price worth paying
Report Angoose April 16, 2020 7:27 PM BST
You've got to love brassneck and his quirky style of writing, contribution pinched from anotehr thread

brassneck • April 16, 2020 6:59 PM BST

wolf,here is two stats for you.
1=nobody has found a cure for it.
2= nobody has found a vaccine to treat it.
Now governments,scientists,and WHO can talk all they like about flattening curves,and crossing peaks,but the virus will still infect   until the two stats have an answer,the virus is not saying to itself,"i am on a up slope or i am on a down slope,it is saying ,i will kill everyone i can who gets in my way.
and i agree with you that all the governments of the world are waffling.
the virus will move relentlessly until one of the top two states are met.
governments know that if they let people out they will die of the virus.
the virus did not stop spreading,its people who have hidden from the virus that has numbers of deaths dropping,and nobody knows if the virus has a big brother coming behind him.
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 7:28 PM BST
i hope we dont end up in cycles of lock down and release
Report Cider April 16, 2020 7:31 PM BST
We're definitely going to be living with it for a long time, Angoose. It's going to be about mitigation.
Report Angoose April 16, 2020 7:31 PM BST

Apr 16, 2020 -- 7:28PM, jollyswagman wrote:


i hope we dont end up in cycles of lock down and release


Don't we all, but will prevent it other than a miracle vaccine or a "let it rip" policy ?

Report Angoose April 16, 2020 7:31 PM BST
but what will
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 7:32 PM BST
posters like brass and lfc sometimes say very profound things, but having seen most of their pearls it is a worry when you look at something they say and agree with it  Grin

no easy answers, with trouble developing an antibody test apparently that makes a vaccine a way off too.
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 7:37 PM BST
more localised responses, once in charge with enough tests, surely we wont lock down the whole country?
Report Angoose April 16, 2020 7:40 PM BST
I had a wonder earlier today to a Tesco Extra that is around a twenty minute walk away.
First time I've been there in the middle of the day.

There were around 40 of us in a queue, all very polite and measured.

Once inside, you witness a strange set of behaviours that remains controlled for now.

But you feel it is just a matter of time before we start reading and seeing reports of significant social disorder regarding interpretations of social distancing between shoppers.

Just imagine the scenes if bars are opened up.
"You looking at me" will be replaced by "you breathing over me" as the standard fight starter.
Report Cider April 16, 2020 7:45 PM BST
It was Ocado for me before the crisis, not about to change!
Report eyeball April 16, 2020 7:45 PM BST
Government totally wrong to not follow the findings of the scientists they now follow . They had advanced warning from Imperial college that it was not if but when a pandemic would hit . We are lucky enough that it is not as deadly as it could have been . Hopefully those in charge will have better strategies in place for the next one . It will come .
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 7:49 PM BST
they have lots of scientists on lots of committees and they dont all agree with each other about what to do, a bit death by committee so not easy.
Report duffy April 16, 2020 7:51 PM BST
Angoose,

You go there tomoz and there will be 40 of you queueing in the rain, we haven't seen that yet as it's been sunny since the start, but it's just another thing to pi55 people off hanging around to get in the shops.
Report Angoose April 16, 2020 7:58 PM BST
Good point, we've been very fortunate with the weather the last three weeks.
Report 1st time poster April 16, 2020 8:07 PM BST
not really government wanted rain
Report Dotchinite April 16, 2020 8:13 PM BST
Ferguson is an idiot and should be fired. The other weekend when deaths(announced) was 4900 he was still claiming the range of possibles ranged from about "7000". Since we hadnt reached the peak, several hundred were dying a day and there is a delay in reporting anyway it showed he hadnt a clue.
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 8:24 PM BST
we have had discussions about him on here dotchinite, he has form for being out by two or three decimal places on his estimates which do in fact look like clueless guesses. he predicted deaths from variant cvj in the range of 130,000 and it was only a few hundred. his group came up with the amazing plan to slaughter millions of healthy animals during the foot and mouth outbreak. yet he is respected around the world, the usa government use him too.
Report Angoose April 16, 2020 8:33 PM BST
People only remember Paul Robinson for his clanger against Croatia, but still collected 41 caps for Engerland Grin
Report Racingqueen April 16, 2020 8:36 PM BST
Ferguson is only covering his own self serving a55.

His model has been shown up as a steaming turd
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 8:53 PM BST
Laugh

system going well send more money

and they do
Report Angoose April 16, 2020 9:14 PM BST
A further 17,164 new cases reported in France today Sad
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 9:19 PM BST
omg , i was hoping for something witty, that is terrible Cry
Report InsiderTrader April 16, 2020 9:37 PM BST
I am not sure that SK method of contact tracing would work in a country like the UK where lots of the population live outside London and people buy things with cash.

Also the privacy issues of using phones, CCTV and credit cards to trace people and then publish enough data that carriers can be traced is not good.

The primary thing is cash though. Tracing would be a lot easier is every paid for everything from their phone. I guess this is what Gates and his mates want.
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 9:44 PM BST
there are definitely cultural differences trader, but i cant get away from the fact that they have done so well and the western world hasnt. imo, this type of virus seems here to stay so in five years time we will probably be used to things like wearing masks in public. i dont like the idea of no cash, i dont trust technology and those who control the technology to look after my hard earned.
Report jucel69 April 16, 2020 9:45 PM BST

Apr 16, 2020 -- 8:33PM, Angoose wrote:


People only remember Paul Robinson for his clanger against Croatia, but still collected 41 caps for Engerland


TBF that wasn't really a clanger, it bounced appreciably over his foot
Just bad luck

Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 9:51 PM BST
he was pretty sh1t, we must have had lots of one handed goal keepers for him to get 41 caps Cry
Report jucel69 April 16, 2020 9:52 PM BST
This Neil Ferguson is a fecking charlatan, he's made some howling errors on several projections.
You can't blame the govt for any of what is going on
They are using the scientists and following their advice verbatim
If they weren't following scientific advice they would be castigated for that too.
It is what it is.
There isn't enough PPE in the world and China makes and has hoarded most of it since January
I've seen the planes full of masks etc leaving countries in the beginning of Jan, destined for China
The CEO of the NHS is responsible for PPE procurement too, not the Health Sec.
There aren't enough tests either, and some of them don't work (especially the shìt from China)
It's not as though the govt are sitting on loads of tests and want to see people die ffs
Report jucel69 April 16, 2020 9:53 PM BST

Apr 16, 2020 -- 9:51PM, jollyswagman wrote:


he was pretty sh1t, we must have had lots of one handed goal keepers for him to get 41 caps


Eng haven't had a decent keeper since Seaman
Yeh he was dogshìt but that actually wasn't his fault

Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 10:18 PM BST
seaman was sh1t too, ask koeman or toothy Cry

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m8Q9drqJe0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oq974EmpBo
Report mafeking April 17, 2020 1:11 PM BST
it was gary Neville's fault anyway. rule number one don't pass it back between the sticks especially on a poor pitch
Report Angoose April 17, 2020 1:21 PM BST
I was watching the Scotland game in the pub at the time, but they had the Croatia v England game on another screen.
Oh how we laughed Laugh
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