The news in numbers

Perhaps somebody would care to do the 7-day moving averages on the above.

#	Date	New Cases	New Deaths	7 Day Tot
01	March 15	251	14
02	March 16	152	20
03	March 17	407	16
04	March 18	676	33
05	March 19	643	40
06	March 20	714	33
07	March 21	1035	56	212
08	March 22	665	48	246
09	March 23	967	54	280
10	March 24	1427	87	351
11	March 25	1452	41	359
12	March 26	2129	115	434
13	March 27	2885	181	582
14	March 28	2546	260	786
15	March 29	2433	209	947
16	March 30	2619	180	1073
17	March 31	3009	381	1367
18	April 01	4324	563	1889
19	April 02	4244	569	2343
20	April 03	4450	684	2846
21	April 04	3735	708	3294
22	April 05	5903	621	3706
23	April 06	3802	439	3965
24	April 07	3634	786	4370
25	April 08	5491	938	4745
26	April 09	4344	881	5057
27	April 10	8681	980	5353
28	April 11	5233	917	5562
29	April 12	5288	737	5678
30	April 13	4342	717	5956

The 7 Day Tot field is the total of UK deaths in the last week including the current day. Although the death trend is upward, the up slope does appear to be slowing. This might be due to the lock down being enforced three weeks ago or a mere statistical anomaly.

You can see it better on a logarithmic graph but I can't do that on here.

Daily average new cases Apr 1 - 10 was 4,799, risen to 4,954 for Apr 11 - 13.
Daily average deaths for Apr 1 - 10 was 717, risen to 790 for Apr 11 - 13.

Total for February, daily averages for March and April.

Very interesting. Thanks, Angoose.

Wednesday's figures will be important.
There was evidence of a lag in reporting over the course of the last two weekends and you'd imagine that a holiday weekend would have a longer lag.

I've got similar data for other countries and you can certainly see encouraging signs in Italy.
They appear to have passed their new cases peak, although continue to record daily figures of almost 4k.

What we just don't know is what will happen when lockdown measures begin to be relaxed.

Yes, you're right. There's a lot of buried figures (no pun intended) to come out yet. As for the lockdown, there are bound to be some horrors found when it ends. The world is full of lonely people with no one to check up on them.

Still, it's good to know that Italy is getting over the worst of it.

#	Date	New Cases	New Deaths	7 Day Tot
01	March 15	251	14
02	March 16	152	20
03	March 17	407	16
04	March 18	676	33
05	March 19	643	40
06	March 20	714	33
07	March 21	1035	56	212
08	March 22	665	48	246
09	March 23	967	54	280
10	March 24	1427	87	351
11	March 25	1452	41	359
12	March 26	2129	115	434
13	March 27	2885	181	582
14	March 28	2546	260	786
15	March 29	2433	209	947
16	March 30	2619	180	1073
17	March 31	3009	381	1367
18	April 01	4324	563	1889
19	April 02	4244	569	2343
20	April 03	4450	684	2846
21	April 04	3735	708	3294
22	April 05	5903	621	3706
23	April 06	3802	439	3965
24	April 07	3634	786	4370
25	April 08	5491	938	4745
26	April 09	4344	881	5057
27	April 10	8681	980	5353
28	April 11	5233	917	5562
29	April 12	5288	737	5678
30	April 13	4342	717	5956
31	April 14	5252	778	5948
32	April 15	4603	761	5771

The 7 Day Tot field is the total of UK deaths in the last week including the current day.

The weekly death total produced the post-Easter surge predicted by Angoose but would now seem to be in retreat for the first time. Far too early to say for sure, of course, but could the tide be going out?

Here are two charts that show daily averages for new cases and hospital deaths.
I have split March and April in to three periods, ten days each, except March period 3 (11 days) and April period 2 (5 days to date).

April P1 had a daily average of 4,799 new cases, P2 is showing 4,944. Peak not passed yet.
For deaths, April P1 daily average of 717, P2 is showing 782.

You'd like to see the numbers of new cases begin to tail off, but it is certainly not accelerating out of control.
The lockdown measures appearing to do precisely what they were intended to do.

Well done! I think I'll abandon my poor effort, your charts are much more informative.

Given that the lockdown does appear to have the intended effect, what's your opinion of the what and when of the exit strategy?

You've got the raw data, get yourself on to you tube and see how easily you'll be able to turn them in to graphs.

I suspect that we'll get at least another three weeks of lockdown as we know it.

As for unwinding it, that was always going to be harder than implementing it.

You can put a basic framework up for what requires to be done quite easily.
Simply list all of the restrictive measures that have been implemented and decide how you wish to change them.

You also need to consider measures that haven't previously been used to determine if they may be required in the future.
One example would be how to deal with international flights and any passengers arriving in the country.

But then the really tough part kicks in and that is on the likely segmentation of the relaxation of existing measures.

Do you relax a measure nationally or regionally ?
Do you relax it for some job categories and not others ?
Do you relax it for "non-vulnerable" people only ?

Once you begin to contemplate segmenting the nation, restoring rights for some but not others, you open up a huge can of worms.

Do you relax a measure nationally or regionally ?
Do you relax it for some job categories and not others ?
Do you relax it for "non-vulnerable" people only ?

Once you begin to contemplate segmenting the nation, restoring rights for some but not others, you open up a huge can of worms.

I hadn't thought of a partial unlock amd you're right about the size of the can of worms it would open.

It might be best to free everybody at once but make provision for those who would rather stay inside for longer on the instalment plan. That means some people can stay at home all day with free food delivered but still go down to the pub at night. Yes, that would be popular I think.