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Coronavirus 'is cornered and will burn out' due to UK distancing measures, ex-WHO official says
Research suggests that each person infected with COVID-19 will infect just 0.62 other people - crucial to eradicating the virus.
The UK's social distancing measures are working and mean coronavirus now "has nowhere to go and will burn out", a former World Health Organization director has said.
While estimates previously indicated each person infected with COVID-19 would infect 2.6 other people, research conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine revealed that number has fallen to 0.62.
Keeping that figure below one is seen as crucial in the effort to slowly eradicate coronavirus, and Professor Karol Sikora suggested the new study showed the nationwide lockdown was on the way to halting its spread.
"This means the virus is cornered," he said.
"It has nowhere to go and will burn out. Good news."
Experts suggest the virus's peak in the country will occur between 6 April and 30 April, ahead of a likely second wave when social distancing measures are relaxed.
Professor Sikora, who is chief medical officer at Rutherford Health, professor of medicine at the University of Buckingham and former director of the WHO Cancer Programme, said evidence from China and South Korea told Sky News he believed the "main wave" of high death-rates would be over by the end of the month.
"The real question is 'how do you relax social distancing at that point?', and there's no science behind that, it's just a judgement call and it's a difficult judgement call," he told Sky News.
"Testing, for those who have been infected and therefore to know what percentage of the population in the UK are infected with the virus is sort of critical now, because that would guide the relaxation of social distancing and help business to get started again."
He pointed out that studies of restricted samples of people infected with coronavirus, including those on cruise ships, indicated that around half of those who contract the illness have no symptoms.
"That's telling us something," he said.
"Somehow, if we could test the population and find out who exactly has gone through the process of coronavirus, then you can release them into the population.
"If it's 40% or 50% - and the epedemiologists argue about that already - it may be possible to liberate social distancing [in the] first [or] second week in May.
"We'd all be delighted if that is the case. At the same time, if it's not the case and, say, only 10% of the population have been infected, we may have to wait until September, and that would create huge social problems for this country and other countries."
Research suggests that each person infected with COVID-19 will infect just 0.62 other people - crucial to eradicating the virus.
The UK's social distancing measures are working and mean coronavirus now "has nowhere to go and will burn out", a former World Health Organization director has said.
While estimates previously indicated each person infected with COVID-19 would infect 2.6 other people, research conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine revealed that number has fallen to 0.62.
Keeping that figure below one is seen as crucial in the effort to slowly eradicate coronavirus, and Professor Karol Sikora suggested the new study showed the nationwide lockdown was on the way to halting its spread.
"This means the virus is cornered," he said.
"It has nowhere to go and will burn out. Good news."
Experts suggest the virus's peak in the country will occur between 6 April and 30 April, ahead of a likely second wave when social distancing measures are relaxed.
Professor Sikora, who is chief medical officer at Rutherford Health, professor of medicine at the University of Buckingham and former director of the WHO Cancer Programme, said evidence from China and South Korea told Sky News he believed the "main wave" of high death-rates would be over by the end of the month.
"The real question is 'how do you relax social distancing at that point?', and there's no science behind that, it's just a judgement call and it's a difficult judgement call," he told Sky News.
"Testing, for those who have been infected and therefore to know what percentage of the population in the UK are infected with the virus is sort of critical now, because that would guide the relaxation of social distancing and help business to get started again."
He pointed out that studies of restricted samples of people infected with coronavirus, including those on cruise ships, indicated that around half of those who contract the illness have no symptoms.
"That's telling us something," he said.
"Somehow, if we could test the population and find out who exactly has gone through the process of coronavirus, then you can release them into the population.
"If it's 40% or 50% - and the epedemiologists argue about that already - it may be possible to liberate social distancing [in the] first [or] second week in May.
"We'd all be delighted if that is the case. At the same time, if it's not the case and, say, only 10% of the population have been infected, we may have to wait until September, and that would create huge social problems for this country and other countries."
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Replies: 31
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I would, however, be very interested in understanding how they have been able to determine that the infection rate has fallen to 0.62.
Is there enough testing and contact tracing being performed to provide a high confidence level in the claim of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.? |
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Is the ex WHO member me?
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i don't believe that figure, expect it to rise again
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0.62 is a bit optimistic. I reckon 0.63 is nearer the mark.
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roads busy as nhs send 1000,s of nurses and operators on wild goose chases to 6 testing centres in the middle of nowhere,
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A quick look at his Wikipedia page reveals that most of Professor Sikora's career has been spent working in oncology and the treatement of cancer.
His position at the WHO was also in relation to this field. He also ceased working for the WHO over 20 years ago. Does that suddenly make him an expert in virology? |
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I'm in favour of social distancing for ever. There's loads of smelly, dirty, obnoxious people I would rather stay away from.
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you will frequent weatherspoons
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Perhaps I should stay away from here as there's loads of similar posters.
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weatherspoons near me used to have a designated area for the lowlife,it was knicknamed THE POND,
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No idea how many are immune because zero antibody testing done, no idea how many have it now because insufficient testing done (as a policy) and therefore no idea how many can still catch it. Only beginning to test healthcare workers.
What a load of nonsense. But I'm sure they were well paid for their study and won't be shy about doing more research if someone pays them to. |
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If there's only been 152,000 tests done out of 70 million, how the fook do we know it's cornered?
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Christmas events are now starting to get cancelled
https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/bury-st-edmunds-christmas-fayre-18010653 |
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As long cheltenham happens in 2021
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Well I hope the professor is right?
But for now we must maintain maximum precautions... keep our distance |
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There have been more positive tests in the US in the last eight days (157k) than the total number of people tested in the UK (152k).
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A potential coronavirus vaccine developed by US scientists has been found to produce antibodies capable of fighting off Covid-19 in the first peer-reviewed study of its kind.
The vaccine, which was tested on mice by researchers at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, generated the antibodies in quantities thought to be enough to “neutralise” the virus within two week of injection. The study’s authors are now to apply to the US Food and Drug Administration for investigational new drug approval ahead of phase one human clinical trials planned to start in the next few months. Scientists across the globe are racing to develop a vaccine to protect against coronavirus, which has infected more than a confirmed 950,000 people worldwide and claimed nearly 50,000 lives. The first human trial of a vaccine began at a lab in Seattle last month after a team of US researchers skipped animal testing, which is used to establish effectiveness and safety. Dozens of other teams around the world have potential vaccines in development. But the Pittsburgh research is the first study on a Covid-19 vaccine candidate to be published after critique from fellow scientists at outside institutions. The scientists were able to act quickly because they had already laid the groundwork during earlier epidemics of coronaviruses: Sars in 2003 and Mers in 2014. “These two viruses, which are closely related to [Covid-19], teach us that a particular protein, called a spike protein, is important for inducing immunity against the virus. We knew exactly where to fight this new virus,” said Andrea Gambotto, associate professor of surgery at the Pittsburgh School of Medicine. The vaccine candidate, which the authors are calling PittCoVacc, uses lab-made pieces of viral protein to build immunity in the same way as a flu jab. To increase potency, the researchers also used a new drug delivery approach involving of a fingertip-sized patch of 400 tiny microneedles that inject the spike protein pieces into the skin, where the immune reaction is strongest. The patch is stuck on like a plaster and the needles – which are made entirely of sugar and the protein pieces – simply dissolve into the skin. “We developed this to build on the original scratch method used to deliver the smallpox vaccine to the skin, but as a high-tech version that is more efficient and reproducible patient to patient,” said study co-author Louis Falo, professor and chair of dermatology. “And it’s actually pretty painless – it feels kind of like Velcro.” The researchers said their system could be scaled up to produce the protein on an industrial scale. Hundreds of millions of any Covid-19 vaccine doses will be need to be produced worldwide. Once manufactured, PittCoVacc can sit at room temperature until it is needed, eliminating the need for refrigeration during transport or storage, the researchers said. “For most vaccines, you don’t need to address scalability to begin with,” Prof Gambotto said. “But when you try to develop a vaccine quickly against a pandemic that’s the first requirement.” When tested in mice, PittCoVacc generated a surge of antibodies against Covid-19 within two weeks of the microneedle prick. The results have not yet been tracked in the long term, but the mice who were given the Pittsburgh researchers’ Mers vaccine candidate developed enough antibodies to neutralise the virus for at least a year. The antibody levels of the rodents vaccinated against Covid-19 “seem to be following the same trend,” according to the researchers. The team found the Covid-19 microneedle vaccine maintained its potency even after being sterilised with gamma radiation, an important step in making the drug suitable for use in humans. Testing in patients would “typically require at least a year and probably longer”, Prof Falo said. But he added: “This particular situation is different from anything we’ve ever seen, so we don’t know how long the clinical development process will take. Recently announced revisions to the normal processes suggest we may be able to advance this faster.” Scientists in Australia announced on Thursday they had begun testing another potential Covid-19 vaccine on ferrets, with a team at the University of Oxford set to trial the same drug on humans in the next few weeks. |
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..
https://www.dailywire.com/news/dr-on-malaria-drug-absolute-game-changer-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-pandemic |
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Cannot cheat the process and rush it.
The last we want them for do is force everyone to be injected with a potentially lethal vaccine. |
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Lucky mice...they are now protected from coronavirus
I hope it works for us humans Angoose? At least something is being done, I am glad to hear  |
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Why test on animals that have a different physiology to us when we have prisons full of rapists and murderers sitting idly by?
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am sure boris and the fockwts will get that up and running in the next year or two.
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Its a report from a fox news interview you idiot.
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Do you derive pleasure from being abusive online, does it create a sense of control?
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Peston pishing on their parade of optimistic guesses.......
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Cornered by five pillars of shyte............
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20c in London on Sunday, can see a few bbq parties being thrown.
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I do when you post garbage and starts freds every few minutes with exact same sh1te on them, factcheck.org they are left leaning group who confirm the China deaths are fact, walofs.
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Does it provide a sense of relief from your untreated problems, a temporary escape from the demons you are unable to address?
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goosebump copy and paste copy and paste
the guardian/bbc nazis are rife on this forum |