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I've had a look at the Chinese figures, and have done some quick calculations to give a possible indication of when things might start to ease in Europe and Britain. (And before anyone jumps down my throat, I know this isn't particularly scientific, and all of the countries do lockdowns in a different way. Nonetheless, it might be interesting to some of us to see how things compare in the case of Italy, Spain etc.)
In China, Wuhan was locked down on January the 23rd, and 14 other seriously-affected cities closed down on January the 24th.
The number of new cases per day finally started to make some modest falls from February the 14th on, which was exactly three weeks after the 14 cities had been locked down. This was also the point at which the number of active cases started to level off, finally hitting their peak on February the 17th before beginning a significant tumble down.
By the 23rd of February (four weeks and two days after the lockdown), the number of new cases per day had fallen to relatively small figures, while the number of active cases was on a steep downwards path.
It's worth noting that the number of daily deaths had been continuing at a very consistent rate up until this point. They finally started to fall significantly on the 24th of February, and from the 29th onwards most days came in at less than 40 deaths. (In a country with 1.4B, that's absolutely nil.)
If we apply this to the European countries:
Italy: Lockdown took place from March the 9th. The three week mark will be March the 30th, or this Monday. If Italy follows China exactly, the number of new cases per day should start to make modest falls from here, and the number of active cases should begin to level off. By March the 8th (a week on Wednesday), the number of new cases per day should be at low figures, and the number of active cases should be on a steep downwards path. The rate of deaths should start to fall from the 9th, and by the 14th of April should be in low figures.
Spain: Went into lockdown from March the 16th. The three week mark will be Monday April the 6th, and active cases should begin to level off. By Wednesday April the 15th, the number of new cases per day should be at low figures, and the number of active cases should be on a steep downwards path. Rate of deaths should fall from the 16th, and should be in low figures by the 21st of April.
Britain: Went into lockdown from March the 24th. The three week mark will be Tuesday April the 14th, and active cases should begin to level off. By Thursday April the 23rd, the number of new cases per day should be at low figures, and the number of active cases should be on a steep downwards path. Rate of deaths should fall from the 24th, and should be in low figures by the 29th of April.
It's worth noting that in China, the number of cases kept flying upwards right up until just before the 14th of February. Indeed, the 12th was utterly brutal.
In China, Wuhan was locked down on January the 23rd, and 14 other seriously-affected cities closed down on January the 24th.
The number of new cases per day finally started to make some modest falls from February the 14th on, which was exactly three weeks after the 14 cities had been locked down. This was also the point at which the number of active cases started to level off, finally hitting their peak on February the 17th before beginning a significant tumble down.
By the 23rd of February (four weeks and two days after the lockdown), the number of new cases per day had fallen to relatively small figures, while the number of active cases was on a steep downwards path.
It's worth noting that the number of daily deaths had been continuing at a very consistent rate up until this point. They finally started to fall significantly on the 24th of February, and from the 29th onwards most days came in at less than 40 deaths. (In a country with 1.4B, that's absolutely nil.)
If we apply this to the European countries:
Italy: Lockdown took place from March the 9th. The three week mark will be March the 30th, or this Monday. If Italy follows China exactly, the number of new cases per day should start to make modest falls from here, and the number of active cases should begin to level off. By March the 8th (a week on Wednesday), the number of new cases per day should be at low figures, and the number of active cases should be on a steep downwards path. The rate of deaths should start to fall from the 9th, and by the 14th of April should be in low figures.
Spain: Went into lockdown from March the 16th. The three week mark will be Monday April the 6th, and active cases should begin to level off. By Wednesday April the 15th, the number of new cases per day should be at low figures, and the number of active cases should be on a steep downwards path. Rate of deaths should fall from the 16th, and should be in low figures by the 21st of April.
Britain: Went into lockdown from March the 24th. The three week mark will be Tuesday April the 14th, and active cases should begin to level off. By Thursday April the 23rd, the number of new cases per day should be at low figures, and the number of active cases should be on a steep downwards path. Rate of deaths should fall from the 24th, and should be in low figures by the 29th of April.
It's worth noting that in China, the number of cases kept flying upwards right up until just before the 14th of February. Indeed, the 12th was utterly brutal.
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*In the Italy data, March the 8th should read April the 8th.... I'm sure there'll be other mistakes to correct!!
the chinese military must be sat back thinking hmmmmm what could we do with this?
Quick update in case anyone except me was interested in this. According to the China model, this day is Italy's three-week mark, and the point in China's cycle where the down-trend in new cases became very clear.
Assuming that today's figures are official, after several days of trending gently downwards Italy has made a decisive move today. It's fallen to just 4,050 deaths for the day, which will be the lowest daily recording since the 17th of March, almost two weeks ago. Assuming it follows through for the rest of the week, we should be below 3,000 by the weekend, and down to very small figures by next Wednesday. The number of deaths is remaining consistent, but if Italy mirrors China then the daily deaths won't fall noticeably until the end of next week. In the meantime, anything more than that is a bonus.
Spain won't reach its own three-week mark until next Monday, but is already looking pretty good. Only 5,085 new cases have been recorded for the day, and that's a long way down from the figures of the last week. The number of active cases is starting to level off nicely, and they're discharging several thousand every day. By next Monday the trend will hopefully be very clearly downwards. Indeed, Spain looks to be several days ahead of the China model. If Britain can follow that, we might see our own figures falling by early next week.
Assuming that today's figures are official, after several days of trending gently downwards Italy has made a decisive move today. It's fallen to just 4,050 deaths for the day, which will be the lowest daily recording since the 17th of March, almost two weeks ago. Assuming it follows through for the rest of the week, we should be below 3,000 by the weekend, and down to very small figures by next Wednesday. The number of deaths is remaining consistent, but if Italy mirrors China then the daily deaths won't fall noticeably until the end of next week. In the meantime, anything more than that is a bonus.
Spain won't reach its own three-week mark until next Monday, but is already looking pretty good. Only 5,085 new cases have been recorded for the day, and that's a long way down from the figures of the last week. The number of active cases is starting to level off nicely, and they're discharging several thousand every day. By next Monday the trend will hopefully be very clearly downwards. Indeed, Spain looks to be several days ahead of the China model. If Britain can follow that, we might see our own figures falling by early next week.
These figures would seem to indicate there is a 2-3 week gap between infection and diagnosis.
It apparently takes an average of five days to start showing symptoms. Those who go on to die will typically develop more serious problems within a couple of days, and will then be admitted to hospital. It should then take them, on average, a further week to die. Their death usually wouldn't appear in the official stats for at least another two to three days.
So, in the case of the people being infected the day before the lockdown, the average death would appear in the stats about 2.5 weeks later. Obviously some would be appearing in the week or so leading up to that point. Others are hanging on for another week or two before being registered. However, 2.5 weeks would logically be the point when the caseload figures start to shift due to the lockdown coming into place. China and Italy suggest that, in a real-world situation, you might want to add half a week more. Essentially, 2.5-3 weeks after the lockdown seems a solid estimate.
So, in the case of the people being infected the day before the lockdown, the average death would appear in the stats about 2.5 weeks later. Obviously some would be appearing in the week or so leading up to that point. Others are hanging on for another week or two before being registered. However, 2.5 weeks would logically be the point when the caseload figures start to shift due to the lockdown coming into place. China and Italy suggest that, in a real-world situation, you might want to add half a week more. Essentially, 2.5-3 weeks after the lockdown seems a solid estimate.
All these figures then add up nicely, for want of a much better phrase.
Next (64 million dollar) question, looking to China again now, is what happens when you lift the lockdown.
Next (64 million dollar) question, looking to China again now, is what happens when you lift the lockdown.
Well so far they're adding up.... These stats can make fools of even extremely intelligent people, so I wouldn't be surprised if they suddenly turn on somebody like me!
As you say, the real question is what happens next? We won't necessarily get the answer from China. Having seen what this one lockdown did to their figures, they may well try and deal with it behind closed doors next time, and take the human losses... Whether it returns in Europe will be rather more instructive.
And none of this will answer the question of what would have happened had we tried to isolate our older and more vulnerable people, but otherwise let it race through our population. Sweden may answer that one if it goes badly there, but if they ride it out successfully then we still won't know what the effect would have been here. Viruses do tend to have a limited life-span at their most virulent.
As you say, the real question is what happens next? We won't necessarily get the answer from China. Having seen what this one lockdown did to their figures, they may well try and deal with it behind closed doors next time, and take the human losses... Whether it returns in Europe will be rather more instructive.
And none of this will answer the question of what would have happened had we tried to isolate our older and more vulnerable people, but otherwise let it race through our population. Sweden may answer that one if it goes badly there, but if they ride it out successfully then we still won't know what the effect would have been here. Viruses do tend to have a limited life-span at their most virulent.
It apparently takes an average of five days to start showing symptoms.
So how were cases still rising day to day 2 weeks into the Hubei lockdown ? Just by infections from relatives without symptoms ?
So how were cases still rising day to day 2 weeks into the Hubei lockdown ? Just by infections from relatives without symptoms ?
Chinese official figures are, much like their wet markets, best ignored.
So how were cases still rising day to day 2 weeks into the Hubei lockdown ? Just by infections from relatives without symptoms ?
Five days is the average time taken to first display symptoms, but the typical range most often cited is five to 11 days. Quite a few scientists claim 14 is quite common, though, and some have suggested 21 days. And that's only until the time people start showing symptoms. It may well be several days after that that they become sufficiently ill to submit themselves for testing. Testing positive two or two and a half weeks into the lockdown wouldn't be that unlikely.
Add that to health workers, people who are living with asymptomatic carriers etc. and you've got some substantial numbers even several weeks in.
Five days is the average time taken to first display symptoms, but the typical range most often cited is five to 11 days. Quite a few scientists claim 14 is quite common, though, and some have suggested 21 days. And that's only until the time people start showing symptoms. It may well be several days after that that they become sufficiently ill to submit themselves for testing. Testing positive two or two and a half weeks into the lockdown wouldn't be that unlikely.
Add that to health workers, people who are living with asymptomatic carriers etc. and you've got some substantial numbers even several weeks in.
Sweden had 36 deaths today about at 33% increase. They will implement more restrictive measures very soon. They are just at an earlier stage to everywhere else. The way their society and demographics are set up means that they effectively have always had some lockdown and social distancing in place without needing to take the initial steps most countries have.
A large proportion of the population live alone and already work from home a lot of the time. Older folk tend to live separately from younger folk. They listen to and obey their government because they trust them. 85% of the population live in areas with less than 50k inhabitants. They tend to socially distance naturally on public transport and in public. They are not going to let it run through unfettered if it gets any worse. It has spread a lot more slowly so far because of the above and without the need for major restrictions.
Mar 30, 2020 -- 11:13PM, HonkyJoe wrote:
So how were cases still rising day to day 2 weeks into the Hubei lockdown ? Just by infections from relatives without symptoms ?Five days is the average time taken to first display symptoms, but the typical range most often cited is five to 11 days. Quite a few scientists claim 14 is quite common, though, and some have suggested 21 days. And that's only until the time people start showing symptoms. It may well be several days after that that they become sufficiently ill to submit themselves for testing. Testing positive two or two and a half weeks into the lockdown wouldn't be that unlikely. Add that to health workers, people who are living with asymptomatic carriers etc. and you've got some substantial numbers even several weeks in.
They reckon the first case in Lombardy was asymptotic for 3 weeks or maybe more.
Yes, a good few Swedish doctors are now urging for more stringent measures.
The prime minister, Stefan Löfven, has urged Swedes to behave “as adults” and not to spread “panic or rumours”.
Panic, though, is exactly what many within Sweden’s scientific and medical community are starting to feel. A petition signed by more than 2,000 doctors, scientists, and professors last week – including the chairman of the Nobel Foundation, Prof Carl-Henrik Heldin – called on the government to introduce more stringent containment measures. “We’re not testing enough, we’re not tracking, we’re not isolating enough – we have let the virus loose,” said Prof Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér, a virus immunology researcher at the Karolinska Institute. “They are leading us to catastrophe.”
Strong words, but stoicism is a way of life here, as is unflappability. A 300-year history of efficient and transparent public administration, and high levels of trust in experts and governing officials, have left the public inclined to believe what they are told, and that those doing the telling have their best interests at heart.
“I trust that the doctors working with the government know what they are doing, so I suppose we’re as well prepared as we can be,” Robert Andersson, 50, a vendor manager in IT who lives in Södermalm, Stockholm, said. “This ‘hysteria’ that the media is launching is far more dangerous than the virus itself.”
Panic, though, is exactly what many within Sweden’s scientific and medical community are starting to feel. A petition signed by more than 2,000 doctors, scientists, and professors last week – including the chairman of the Nobel Foundation, Prof Carl-Henrik Heldin – called on the government to introduce more stringent containment measures. “We’re not testing enough, we’re not tracking, we’re not isolating enough – we have let the virus loose,” said Prof Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér, a virus immunology researcher at the Karolinska Institute. “They are leading us to catastrophe.”
Strong words, but stoicism is a way of life here, as is unflappability. A 300-year history of efficient and transparent public administration, and high levels of trust in experts and governing officials, have left the public inclined to believe what they are told, and that those doing the telling have their best interests at heart.
“I trust that the doctors working with the government know what they are doing, so I suppose we’re as well prepared as we can be,” Robert Andersson, 50, a vendor manager in IT who lives in Södermalm, Stockholm, said. “This ‘hysteria’ that the media is launching is far more dangerous than the virus itself.”
Very little is known about the Swedish way of life over here, even though it is so close. They pay high tax but get amazing value for that money, amazing benefits and public service. It is like a rich socialist society with little greed or corruption and a very strong sense of putting the common good before your own interests. No wonder you don't hear too much about it.
having worked there I can say it is a very pleasant style of life - but frown on my liking of a a few bevvies
what has happened recently has brought the swedish laid back style of life right down and they have real problems
it is a shame
what has happened recently has brought the swedish laid back style of life right down and they have real problems
it is a shame
The media over here are churning out stories of Sweden's 'different approach'. It is not a different approach at all, it is exactly the same. And you'd trust the competence of their government more than anywhere else. The epidemiologists and other scientists are the ones making the decisions so far because they are the experts, not the politicians. Although perhaps the politicians are the ones with the powers to introduce the more stringent measures.
I think Sweden will keep on top if it ...they don't strike me as reckless or non compliant people ...i will be surprised if it's bad there ... the only thing they may not have is enough PPE ... it's low on stock everywhere now
Mar 30, 2020 -- 11:13PM, HonkyJoe wrote:
So how were cases still rising day to day 2 weeks into the Hubei lockdown ? Just by infections from relatives without symptoms ?Five days is the average time taken to first display symptoms, but the typical range most often cited is five to 11 days. Quite a few scientists claim 14 is quite common, though, and some have suggested 21 days. And that's only until the time people start showing symptoms. It may well be several days after that that they become sufficiently ill to submit themselves for testing. Testing positive two or two and a half weeks into the lockdown wouldn't be that unlikely. Add that to health workers, people who are living with asymptomatic carriers etc. and you've got some substantial numbers even several weeks in.
That is my concern. People thinking "I've been in lockdown for a week and no symptoms, so I've nothing to worry about" . But we could have caught it 15-20 days ago.
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