PROFESSOR WHO PREDICTED 500,000 UK DEATHS....

Always know if these "gentlemen" show up together im on the right track--which is a shame for the rest of us

Terry

As has been pointed out by other posters it is you not I who want to see people die of preventable illnesses.
Swearing and calling people "vile" won't hide the fact that you are evil & want children and pensioners to die.

Don't ne nasty Terry. Follow the advice regarding social distancing & you may help to save lives. Don't be selfish Terry.

Keep at it,you are showing your true colours

Fire.
Some shiny hat loon wittered on about speaking to lawyers and sueing me as I mentioned he was totally obsessed with a Swedish schoolgirl.
The letter from his lawyers never arrived for some reason.


Terry often posts about how he wants children to avoid vaccines, it has been pointed out that his actions would kill many thousands of children but that is his aim. It is hardly libellous as there is plenty of evidence to back up dave's claim that Terry wants to see children die.

Terry
My true colours are to follow UK government advice and save lives.

I can live with those true colours.

Terry your true colours involve thousands of children & pensioners being seriously ill or dead .

Terry

I have some information for you as you seem to be totally clueless about my role in UK government.

I don't know "whats [sic] planned for us" . I am not a member of UK government, I don't get invited to a Cobra meetings, I am not informed before general public of any new plans.

My guess is that we will have another couple of months of this "lockdown " then a phased ending starting in June (hopefully).

Why do you believe I'm so important Terry'?

If I see anything posted as libellous I'll report it.
Hopefully you will have your posting rights revoked.
The rules are quite simple.
Desist

Fire
will you also report Terry's posts where he swears or maybe where he calls me "vile", for suggesting we follow the government advice.
I think the rules are quite simple.


As mentioned Terry is fairly clear that parents should not gave vaccines to children. Vaccines save lives.
Can you understand the logic Dave used in his post?

over 200 today

So fire and ice has been a forum member for just over a month, is posting at a rate of ten a day and has appointed himself forum policeman.

Suspicious?

I wonder what his previous username was and why he was banned.

Dave
I have only ever blocked one user on Betfair.

Are you suggesting I should add a 2nd name to that list?

Calling someone vile is not libellous.

Mexico, your posts are full of 'I think' and therefore must be valid
They aren't

I've noticed you and your ilk are like moths to a flame when  Terry is about.
Why do you care about what he says so much? Is he that dangerous to postulate a different view to the perceived narrative which many blindly follow?

I don't see you pursuing other dissenters with such venom and relentlessness?

I'm posting 10 a day because I'm locked in!
You sound like a conspiracy theorist there dave
Have you seen how much your cohorts have been posting?
Have some balance man

I pursue all the anti-vaxxers with the same venom

More than 140,000 die from measles as cases surge worldwide
Infants and young children most at risk of fatal complications, health agencies warn

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/05-12-2019-more-than-140-000-die-from-measles-as-cases-surge-worldwide
.

Are you blocking me Mexico or Terry?
Weird if it is me.

Yes Fire it is dangerous to have a different view regarding this virus.

The "perceived narrative "  is that this virus will kill people, it is real & people should "socially distance "
Terry's view is that this virus is fake & made up , thousands of doctors & scientists are telling lies.

Fire are you intelligent enough to understand why people may consider that view is dangerous.? 

Do you believe it is dangerous for old people to continue as normal & mix with friends & family.?

I'm intelligent enough to understand a loaded question when I see one.

If I agree with you on the view it is  dangerous then I'm intelligent and if I don't I'm not.

That won't work with me brains

There are equally qualified experts who are highly doubtful of how the data is being gathered/interpreted. They may be in the minority, but I still take heed of what they say for balance.

The massive bias towards old people dying per day compared to younger people is not as astounding as one would believe.
Can you work out why?

UK"s Imperial College found as SOLE AGENT of panic over c/v.Who the hell are these people who are destroying human society?

noted Fire

You don't know how to answer a simple question of

Do you believe it is dangerous for old people to continue as normal & mix with friends & family?


Yep sounds like you are very intelligent- best avoid answering such a "loaded" question as that. Well done Fire as you claim you have brains.

It's not as dangerous as is perceived.
That's what I think based on data gathered.
The data is flawed imo and so I am not as fervent and arrogant to think I am absolutely correct and anyone who disagrees is an idiot.

Note that

Terry
Many countries were placing social distancing before the Imperial report.

So hardly SOLE AFENT are they?

SPAIN 1000 DEATHS TO 6,500 deaths 9 days

Italy 1000 deaths to 6,500 deaths 12 days

uk 1000 deaths to 6,500 ?

some modelling says we might not reach it

this should be interesting next week,
The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 13 March 2020 (week 11) was 11,019; this represents an increase of 124 deaths registered in comparison with the previous week (week 10).

The average number of deaths for the corresponding week over the previous five years was 11,205.

and also from italy.
In the winter seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17, an estimated average of 5,290,000 ILI cases occurred in Italy, corresponding to an incidence of 9%.

•
More than 68,000 deaths attributable to flu epidemics were estimated in the study period.

•
Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly.

Not to worry, Cov 19 will eventually run its course and we can return to the days when those with flu like symptom/illness that may not be  life threatening for themselves will again be able to infect those more vulnerable without much comment,  the person coughing their heart up in Wetherspoons  or with an obvious fever sneezing on the bus, sitting behind you in the cinema.
Today they are portrayed as wicked, causing  'unnecessary deaths' a few months ago no one batted an eyelid, no one counted the dead.

cant argue with that like.spot on

Still some cretins on here who don't get that the issue is the hospitals being overwhelmed, not the potency of the virus. The virus may well be less potent than flu but flu doesn't overwhelm the health system. That is the issue and that is the difference. The death rate will jump when, not if, that happens because it is guaranteed to happen.

So, yes, plenty of coronavirus deaths are avoidable whereas the vast majority of flu deaths are unavoidable. If flu overwhelmed the health system every year, the death rate from flu would jump and restrictive measures would have to be taken. Too many morons don't get that this is the issue in all of this, nobody is claiming that it is worse than flu in terms of potency. That is why the death rate is so high in Italy. That is why we are taking temporary measures to restrict the rate of spread. Do you finally get it yet?

I get  that lurka
but what I don't get is if as the health lady just said
we,re about to reach a peak ,coinciding with seeing the benefits of social distancing.lockdown and we,ve stil got capacity in the NHS,WHY ARE WE BUST MAKING 20/30.000 ventilators that wont be ready for 3/4 weeks,when we,re currently not using all the 8,000 we,ve got

if we can get or just about get by with 8000 in next 7 to 10 days we,re hardly going to need 30,000 in 4 weeks time if we,re over peak and seeing benefits of lockdown

ellis- do you have a link for that. Thanks.

The ‘normal’ death rates are not being mentioned anywhere except in chat rooms and on you tube.

potlis - bullseye

ffs its not the death rates its the foooooooooooooooooooking speed of them if hospitals are overwhelmed conditions you wouldn't have died with 6 weeks ago today you might and they might/will have fooook all to do with this virus other than theres no dr or bed to treat you in,
if it makes you sleep easier or helps you put a smug grin on your napper, all the  experts,dr,s wheeled out be government have said 50% or more might have died within 12 months, but its not the fooooooooking point

Hong kong flu 1968 was much,much worse than this and hardly anybody even remembers it now so this has for some reason been blown sky high by the usual suspects,the question is why?Living like f ucking prisoners in our own homes for chist sakes

So it’s about capacity?

1TP - 50k can die in a average March. Do you think they all die at home?

Hospital admissions have soared in the last 10 years. The NHS is the 5th largest employer in the world yet is on the brink most winters. It’s a capacity issue.

They managed it in 68 though.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/monthlyfiguresondeathsregisteredbyareaofusualresidence.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

if 1st one doesnt show, just goggle deaths in uk per month

Ty

Last three March registered deaths for England and Wales :  48,664  51,229   43,946
Can we please have the explanations for the variations now.

Variations? Death is unpredictable goose.

The wider point is that 10s of thousands die every month without lockdowns. No one says anything. No one apparently cares. No celebration when the figures drop dramatically nor grief when there’s a spike of thousands.

they don't die a 1000 a day over a few week period, they die over a 4/5 month so called winter crisis period

last 3 march , as angoose points out, means approx 1500 a day

last March was one of the warmest on record.

April will be the true test - if 2019-ncov is the deadly killer we're told it is figures should be much higher than average. anyone think they will be?

Mar 29, 2020 -- 6:31PM, Injera wrote:

Variations? Death is unpredictable goose. The wider point is that 10s of thousands die every month without lockdowns. No one says anything. No one apparently cares. No celebration when the figures drop dramatically nor grief when there’s a spike of thousands.

It is indeed, but we all know that a certain number of forum contributors will pounce upon the official March 2020 figures, provide us with their expert analysis, and pronounce that CODID-19 isn't a factor.

Hence why I posted the figures for the last three years in advance of the current year figure being available.

They can utilise their expertise to enlighten us of those variations in order that we are better equipped to understand their explanation of the March 2020 figures.

Every ones a "moron or a "Cretin" if they don't lay awake at night worrying if the NHS will be overwhelmed tomorrow, sorry but I don't.
I await the 'you won't be sayin that if you get it" replies, and they may be right, but that won't change the fact that the vast majority of people are not, and never were in danger from the virus.

When listening to the endless NHS reports you could be forgiven for believing the only casualties in this are the ones arriving at Hospital, the whole economy been shut down with no idea when that will end, millions have lost their jobs, some in the same households, you would have to have been there to know what sort of pressure those people are under, so excuse us "morons" if we question whether there might have been a better way to go about dealing with this.

Possibly you missed the announcements of the various financial support packages made by the government.
I would have thought that these extremely generous measures were a direct recognition that millions in the country are suffering.

the whole economy been shut down with no idea when that will end, millions have lost their jobs, some in the same households, you would have to have been there to know what sort of pressure those people are under, so excuse us "morons" if we question whether there might have been a better way to go about dealing with this.

At this moment in time, the long-term consequences do look bleaker than the short-term consequences. It's so hard to work out though.

But you're right that we must have the right to question what measures are being taken. It's the very essence of democracy.

the economy would have took a big hit either way if hundreds of thousands of people are ill at the same time but what do you think they should have done ?

That seem to be your favourite question, like a stuck record.

and you have not answered it once

i take you are missing the pub

Have you asked me before? possibly you've ask almost everyone else.

and not one has answered,so lets answer for you,you couldnt give a crap how many people die as long as you can get in the pub

Angoose: pronounce that CODID-19 isn't a factor.


Not sure anyone is saying that. More that covid-19 is part of a much wider context which is being ignored at all levels. The use of data by the experts is amateurish and downright ignorant.

Sir Patrick Vallance spoke about the ‘overlapping’ of deaths last week but nothing since from any of the government advisors. It’s a crucial part of the jigsaw being left on the floor.  The so called mortality rates would make an 11 year old maths pupil blush with embarrassment. The folly of dividing deaths by confirmed cases to reach a MR is bilge.

Given the quality of your responses you can hardly blame them, goodnight.

sweet dreams

angoose must be so excited over these numbers  - pick a number

Some maps and a little bit of analysis to go with the figures pondered above about year-on-year deaths.

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/30/covid19-yet-to-impact-europes-overall-mortality

History will say this lockdown was done by a mistake,the pooter got it wrong

History will say that a ban on travel from China and later Italy and any country thereafter with a breakout should have been put in place. That's what the Asian countries did and the Russians. Once it got out of hand a lockdown was inevitable. No government is going to allow it to spread unchecked throughout the population as there would be hundreds of thousands if not millions of avoidable deaths, including a lot more young people who wouldn't be able to get treatment.

The reason Taiwan was so successful is that it made a mess of SARS when it broke out and it was considered a national tragedy that they said they could never let happen again and they made sure they didn't. It would have caused relatively minor economic pain domestically compared to an indefinite lockdown and all the consequent job losses etc etc. And there was a real-time blueprint for how to deal with it effectively from the Asian countries and Russia. Instead Boris told everyone to take it on the chin, that he shook hands with hospital patients and that he wanted to encourage the spread to create herd immunity, despite there being no historic examples of herd immunity being achieved successfully without a vaccine and that he wasn't concerned with it spreading at sporting events etc. It's a bit late now to be complaining about lockdown measures.

Darlo ...they have chosen specific weeks  though to suit their argument lol   

also the dates  shown only really  apply to Italy  and don't include  deaths that would've /might've  happened  without a lockdown

don't get the point of those maps etc  or what he's trying to say .


only thing i will agree with is that a lot of deaths would have happened anyway

History will ask if we locked down from day 1, would the lock down needed be far shorter than the length of the lock down we are now facing, off the back of a number of weeks where we had people and borders wide open, and has it cost an unnecessary loss of life, that's the question!!!

They said that the lock down was always coming, they weren't married to the herd immunity theory but were worried about people going stir crazy, which they are right about, a look on here shows that.

They did want the virus to circulate before the lock down, but did they jump to late.

Interesting Darlo.

The general point is that excess winter mortality is not discussed by the media nor government. People are being told all covid deaths are exceptional and a special case.

The ONS here and the equivalent abroad all carry stats for EWM. It’s a vital tool to understand if one winter is better or worse than another.  England and Wales had 50100 excess winter deaths in 17-18.

Have people stopped from dying from flu or pneumonia these days or are they just classed as No.19?

Mar 31, 2020 -- 3:47PM, Injera wrote:

Interesting Darlo. The general point is that excess winter mortality is not discussed by the media nor government. People are being told all covid deaths are exceptional and a special case.The ONS here and the equivalent abroad all carry stats for EWM. It’s a vital tool to understand if one winter is better or worse than another.  England and Wales had 50100 excess winter deaths in 17-18.

Winter is either Dec to February or else 22 Dec to 20 March, depending on which definition you use. UK had 177 disclosed Covid 19 deaths on 20 March. It has had over 1600 since and counting, none of them in Winter.

Assuming covid deaths are ‘extra’, since  20th March about 16500 people have died in the UK.

Wonder what the suicide rate of people who've lost their business they've put their entire life into, their jobs, went mentally pear shaped under lockdown, had a divorce that wouldn't have happened etc will be.

It most certainly won't be zero.

Doesn't matter from what an old person dies from its corona virus and it goes unchallenged.

Yes but none of the measures are in response to the current death rate, which might well be lower than flu. They are in expectation of a worse than Italy-like situation if nothing is done. The death rate jumps once hospitals are overwhelmed and that is almost guaranteed to happen.

Yes, there are death fluctuations every year. I don't get what point that Off-Guardian article is trying to make. The death rate hasn't jumped in most countries yet, most are weeks away from it, and everyone knows avoiding that as much as possible is the purpose of lockdown measures, yet the author of the article asks why we are having a lockdown? Seems he misses the point of it all as well or else he's trying to mislead the reader and has an agenda.

If there was a Europe-wide pandemic in those previous years the death numbers would have been tens of thousands higher with a lockdown and hundreds of thousands or millions higher without and restrictive measures would have been taken. There wasn't and that's why we didn't have a lockdown in those years. The author can't be that thick. Were the spikes in previous years predictable or almost guaranteed to happen within a predictable window or guaranteed to overwhelm the health service? I highly doubt they were. Lower weather temps wouldn't even have been a reliable prediction or considered guaranteed to happen.

It's a nonsense article and the next few weeks should make that obvious if it isn't already. Do you think they are complaining about a lockdown in Italy or Spain or do you think they wish they'd brought it in weeks earlier?

the figure you are looking for is approximately 140,000 lung and other related deaths over the winter period which produces nil panic

we have just added a considerable extra number  or it appears we have

I think it’s clear that a lockdown every winter would save lives given that viruses kill thousands.

The reality is that even in dire winters of 50k excess deaths no lockdown was implemented. The reason lockdowns are not used is because of the appalling economic, social
and health consequences they bring.

What also continues to be missed is that 10k die every week in the UK.

We will go to school on Sweden & their approach when its all over.

Yes but was 50k excess deaths guaranteed to happen, was the health service overwhelmed then and was that guaranteed to happen, did all of the 50k excess deaths happen from the same source? Surely not.

I doubt 50k excess deaths would be enough for a lockdown even if it could be predicted in advance to a high degree of certainty. In a worldwide pandemic of a novel virus you are talking about a real risk of a large multiple of 50k excess deaths from one particular source alone. 

And you can say that not all deaths will be from C19, some will die with it from something else. But likewise where a health service is overwhelmed you basically have no health service for the entire population not already in a hospital and then you get younger people dying who wouldn't with treatment and people dying of eg strokes and heart attacks who don't have the virus but can't get treatment and wouldn't be counted in the virus numbers. It's a ridiculous comparison with any period where there wasn't a pandemic.

Injera

It has not been missed that about 10k people die every week, the health services are basically set up to cope with that sort of number (& add a bit for a bad week/ month)

What we were expecting was 200,000 deaths over a 10 week period. These people)& the many who would have survived but needed medical help would have swamped the NHS.
The economy would take a massive hit even if UK government didn't impose restrictions.

The social distancing is not because there will be 20,000 deaths it is because there would be 200,000 deaths. (& economy still smashed)

Sweden's approach is no different. Their way of life means that most of the initial restrictions are in place 100% of the time, that's why the spread has been slow. They will step up the restrictions like everyone else shortly. The notion that they are taking a different approach is nonsense.

The 50k excess deaths was due to weather and the failure of the flu jab. Once the death toll mounted a lockdown could have been put in place. It wasn’t deemed necessary.

The 200-500k figure is disputed, of course. I’m not disputing a lockdown can save lives. I’m questioning how proportionate it is.

I think there’s a wider issue of the capacity of the NHS. More is expected of it every year. How well placed is it to cope with something out of the ordinary.

None of it from overwhelming of the health service? That is the main issue here.

And weathermen can't be trusted to get the weather right tomorrow never mind a full winter.

Injera

You say the 200k deaths is disputed.
Which organisations are saying it would be significant lower than 200k (maybe 50k?) is we basically carried on as normal (if not feeling ill)?

UK is not the only country to apply social distancing. There is evidence from Italy, Spain that this virus can kill lots of people. , so who is saying we shouldn't apply social distancing & deaths Weill be low anyway.

so called key workers are working,city is working,rest of the world isn't, so the only people who might benefit are pubs,eateries, does anyone really think they with staff getting wages,benefits are going to stump up cash for drink,food,consumables on the off chance some people might fancy a night out whilst we,re getting 5/600 deaths a day on tv

A 13 year old lad has  passed from covid 19 in London RIP

There's a reason why experts compare it to the Spanish flu of 1919 and other pandemics and don't waste their time comparing it to a recent year with a spike but no pandemic, and before the worst stage of the pandemic has hit too, like the person who wrote that article tried to. He is not even named on it as far as I can see. Can you not see how ridiculous and agenda-driven the comparison in that article is?

I’ve never said social distancing is wrong! I’m questioning the extent of it. Bear in mind most people who are ill isolate themselves anyway.
The 200k-500k prediction cannot possibly assume no action would be taken. That’s plain daft as there are all kinds of regular actions taken, especially for the vulnerable, in a virus outbreak.

People a symptomatic take preventative measures all the time.

The overall burden of influenza for the 2014-2015 season was an estimated 30 million influenza illnesses, 14 million influenza-associated medical visits, 591,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 51,000 flu-associated deaths (Table: Estimated Influenza Disease Burden, by Season — United States, 2010-11 through 2017-18 Influenza Seasons).

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2014-2015.html

Flu related deaths in the states can be as low as 15k and as high as 60k (from what I’ve seen). If we take the best case scenario of 15k, lockdowns every winter could potentially save 10s of thousands EVERY year.

So Injera

It is you who dispute the 200k model.

That or you forgot to post a link to some evidence with suggests the death rate would be much lower by basically not doing much (ill people stay indoors! And those worried to stut away )

Not really much need for experience, knowledge, education- silly government should have ignored Imperial & gone with your gut feeling?

Injera

Once again the health services are geared up to dealing with an increase of ill people in winter. They are not geared up for the prediction of 200k dead and many more needing medical help for a few weeks.
The model suggested UK would not be able to cope.we wouldn't have been able to treat people who needed oxygen.

A useful idiot ^

Terry

Are you aware that the virus has absolutely nothing to do me or my views on staying safe.

Terry , just follow the simple advice (& law) and apply social distancing. You may save lives (including you own life). What have you got to do which is so important you would need to be mixing with other people.

Useful idiot ^

Do you derive pleasure from being abusive online, does it create a sense of control?

People are locked in their homes based on nothing but a Govt.Model.We have destroyed 10"s of millions of jobs and families based on a Govt Model.
Can anyone provide a single example of a Govt Model that was ever even remotely close to be right?

As opposed to being locked in their homes based on the conspiracy theory of the week ?

There is no talking to people who think an epidemic is comparable to flu.

And even Trump has moved on and accepts that this IS NOT comparable to flu.

As you guys get your news from MMS you will just repeat what you are told,ive an open mind and look at other views points too,as I said earlier,if you had any idea what 5G is going to do with your well-being,you too would be thinking what is this Government up too really?

Terry

You constantly refuse to give a link to your non MSM news stories whenever you post them. If your sources are so good then don't be ashamed of them

Are you aware that there is a major difference between "not using ones brain" & "having an open mind"?

Don't be evil Terry - provide a link to your lies.

Where do you get your news terry?

Do you meet mysterious men dressed in black under Blackfriars Bridge?
Do they hand you envelopes stuffed with coded messages?

You need to look the dangers up but after 3 yrs of me warning you guys,lets face it aint gonna happen. If you kids/loved ones and just cant be arsed well what can I say

*have kids

Terry

It was you who wanted children to die of preventable diseases wasn't it. Some lies about vaccines killing people when the evidence suggests they save lives.

Post a link to your "stories " if they are reliable.

A Shot in the Dark - (2020 Documentary)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2N35yVQcSk&t=1282s

Poor children.