181 new deaths in UK today. (27.3.2020)

and so it will, for a while, till the advantage of staying in pays dividends and the tide turns.The incubation period cane be up to 2 weeks.

we know it will get worse before it improves, hopefully the more serious approach will lead to a fall in new cases soon.

I thoght figures were at 5 Pm ??

2pm

Death figures are for the 24 hour period from 5pm Day 1 to 5pm Day 2.
Then released around 2pm on Day 3.

Here are two updated UK graphs, trending in an unencouraging fashion.

So we are 3 hours short today ??

No, we have a 24 hour period.
From 5pm 25 March to 5pm 26 March for deaths.

The reporting cycle is different for positive tests but no need to cloud the issue here.

OK TY , can all be a bit confusing , any deaths by area Info ??

London being my Main Concern , Friends and family etc , fear will be beginning to set in..

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

not deaths but cases and you can zoom in

Not sure if you can draw much info from any of the stats insider T , certainly not from China. Its difficult situation to rationalise statistically,the death rate could increase if/when the beds are full and all ventilators utilised but it won't nessasiry mean the virus is spreading faster. Or that more people are becoming infected, it might mean more people that have become infected and been at home have suffered further complications. If the group in hospital are younger then it might mean we have a serious situation as in the NHS in certain areas has reached saturation point. As Kenny says, stay indoors, help protect everyone.No easy answers.

I thought if you get to the stage where ventilator required you had a very low chance of surviving.

and now chris whitty.......

tests positive, hasten to add

Being reported as having symptoms rather than having tested positive.

Angoose you got several news feeds on 24/7?

sorry,  angoose, stand corrected, its the sky reporter in me.

Mar 27, 2020 -- 5:21PM, InsiderTrader wrote:

Angoose you got several news feeds on 24/7?

I get alerts on my phone and iPad from Sky, BBC, and The Guardian

And don't forget Apple News alerts from my designated favourites

Unfortunately, no goal alerts recently from FlashScore

Belarus Premier League.

boris felt rough yesterday tested positive, didn't no they had a test that could get a result in hours ,thought it was 24,36 hrs plus

Charlie was tested on Monday, received test results late Tuesday, and released the news on Wednesday.

maybe doris and important cabinet ministers are  on rolling 24/7 tests

He'll have had the Platinum test package.

What do you use to create your plots, Angoose?

More horrible news out of Italy!

over 900 dead in last 24 hours

Horror show in Italy

Mar 27, 2020 -- 5:46PM, edy wrote:

What do you use to create your plots, Angoose?

Good old excel, have put a database together which feeds my coloured graphs.

Italy 10 March : Recorded 10,149  Deaths 631   Active 8,514
20 March 47,021  4,032  37,860
27 March 86,498  9,134  66,774

You can see from that how the medical services are absolutely swamped.
Those who might survive with treatment, simply unable to be treated.

The Netherlands is the next country in Europe that is trending very badly.
Schiphol is a big transit zone and will likely have been a major contributor.

oh ok, thanks. Didn't know Excel can do such fancy graphs.

Netherlands has been a horror show for days.

Netherlands held onto herd immunity longer than Johnson if I correctly remember what a dear Dutch tennis forumite told me.

Looks like Chris Whitty is down with symptoms now. To lose our PM, Health Secretary, and Chief Medical Officer in the same day does smack of carelessness..

Were the UK still doing cabinet meetings together instead of over the internet?

Mar 27, 2020 -- 6:00PM, edy wrote:

oh ok, thanks. Didn't know Excel can do such fancy graphs.

It can when I'm in the driving seat

together as in with them being in the same room together.

Mar 27, 2020 -- 6:04PM, edy wrote:

Were the UK still doing cabinet meetings together instead of over the internet?

Number 10 is a rabbit warren, you heard several reporters speaking of narrow corridors and lots of staff inside the various offices.

Our Parliament was still up and running until a couple of days ago, Edy. So yes, our cabinet must have been in close contact on many occasions. About half of them could be down with it at this rate.

The German cabinet is also still meeting in person (bar Merkel), but they moved out of the normal room into a far bigger one so they can keep more distance.

certainly the most recent cabinet meeting in the last couple of days was by videolink

Edy, your country's death figures are very low. Are people there saying that's because the Germans do lots of testing?

Beth Rigby what a twatt

gove couldn't be more odious even if he overdosed on odious tablets.

That's one of multiple reasons. Nobody obviously really knows for sure at this stage. Reasons that people consider are mostly:

1. As you say we test a lot, one of the highest test per capita rates
2. Even though we test more than others overall, last I checked, we don't test post mortem (unlike Italy and I think the UK too). So the terminally ill person whose life was reduced possibly ever so slightly in Bergamo will be tested in Italy even after his death as far as I know, and then counted as a death in relation to covid-19 if the test is positive. The same does not necessarily apply to Germany.
3. The average age of infected in Germany, as of right now, is far far lower than it is in Italy. I'd have to look up the numbers, but I think in Italy it was something like 60 something while in Germany it was maybe 47. In Germany, the virus was really initially spread a lot among and by ski ressort holiday goers. So that's why the not so elderly age group is affected. Germans are also less social than Italy and also tend to not live multi-generational in the same house/flat (i.e less of a chance of spreading from mild/no sympton young person to grandparents/elderly people in general
4. This obviously isn't true for all parts of Germany, but air is generally cleaner than it is in northern Italy, which has some of the worst pollution in all of Europe. Better air quality will likely contribute to less severe respiratory illnesses.
5. Germany has far better capacities regarding ventilators and beds in ICUs.

Cause of death is the most obvious way to lower (or indeed raise) the mortality rate (as you say edy). Sometimes we’re seeing the phrase ‘covid-related’ death.

I’m still unsure how testing helps. Unless people are tested every 5 days of what use is it?

6. Germany are the real leaders of the EU and have the best of everything first

Didn't get the best of it in ww11

wasn't one in uk counted because a young girl committed suicide because she had it

Is it humanly possible to sound more insincere than Gove

Thanks Edy. That's given me plenty to digest. I hadn't heard the idea about the average age being much lower.

Hospital beds certainly do seem to help in something like this. I've heard that the Dutch have a very low number of hospital beds for their population, which is probably a significant contributing factor in their malaise. God help us in a couple of weeks time!

spain,france,italy don't more older people like a woodbines in these countries

1st time, I think we're trying to undercount, if anything. We only count those who die in hospital. All of those dying at home and (particularly) in nursing homes are left out of the figures. Supposedly we also omit anyone whose family hasn't given permission for their 'number' to be added to the statistics, which sounds like another clever excuse for cutting the figures.

And then there's our strange lack of testing, which I'm sure is a deliberate tactic designed to result in lower figures being published.

Mar 27, 2020 -- 6:17PM, morpteh mackem wrote:

gove couldn't be more odious even if he overdosed on odious tablets.

It's probably because he was going on the telly, he was told not to get tanked up on the columbian marching powder.

Uk govt must be laughing stock of world, PM, Health Minister and chief medical officer down with covid, who's next, Gove. Ant and Dec will be running the country next week.

LONDON HAS FALLEN, SEND THEM ALL TO BRUSSELS

Injera, a lot of people with it suffer from high temperatures. Places like South Korea and Taiwan get people to constantly have their temperatures checked. If the figure's high, they're quickly referred to conveniently located drive-in test centres where they can be checked out. Results are out in a few hours.  If somebody has it they can be treated in isolation, and good detective work will uncover the other places they've been and people they've had close contact with recently. Tracking those down allows them to identify CV hotspots and close them off.  Lots of spadework, but it seems to be working.

Sweden has a worse per capita rate than us and amazingly has been in total denial about it until today, pretty much. Given the lag on rate increase after starting to properly react, I think they'll regret that ...
The swedes don't seem very good at seeing blatant future problems of their own making as they create them, do they..

I see HJ. But if one has a high temperature the natural thing to do is stay home anyway.

in south korea after they work out where an infected person has travelled they ping warning messages to anyone who subsequently goes through the relevant areas. it may seem a bit big brother to us but if it helps.

Mar 27, 2020 -- 6:44PM, Just Checking wrote:

Sweden has a worse per capita rate than us and amazingly has been in total denial about it until today, pretty much. Given the lag on rate increase after starting to properly react, I think they'll regret that ... The swedes don't seem very good at seeing blatant future problems of their own making as they create them, do they..

Swedes do social distancing professionally at any time of the year.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUDm5nvXgAACQbB?format=jpg&name=small

I just wondered what the wierd circle was on the map of infections in Italy, it's San Marino.
Population = 33,400. Tested and infectious = 223!  That's getting on for 1 in a 100, and probably IS > 1 in 100 including unknowns or those yet to show?

Per capita must be worst in the world?

Local North Yorks news on tv, week behind London who are spreading it, that 5hithole should be shut down, southern idiots spreading their illegal refugees and now virus!!!

A 96-year-old woman is now the oldest South Korean to fully recover from the coronavirus.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/coronavirus-positive-good-news-round-up-nation-turns-nature/

There was a 94 yearly Brit who recovered earlier in the week.

Injera, if you think the high temperature might be CV, then you get yourself tested. Or at least, you do if it's quite easy to get tested, and if you're a good South Korean who doesn't want to run any risk of unwittingly infecting anyone else! Plus, supposedly many businesses force you to take a temperature test before you can go to work etc. That way you're more or less forced to get yourself checked out. A bit draconian, but I'm sure even us Brits would be prepared to submit to that if it meant all our businesses, restaurants etc. stayed open.

Worst hit countries seem in Europe and USA even more so than China where it started.

Are caucasians more susceptable or is heat a big decider?

Would be interesting to see if there are any breakdown figures to who has died in the uk and ethnic background compared to national percentages.

Probably more to do with complacency amongst most of the Europeans. Asia also had lots of problems with earlier CV outbreaks (particularly SARS), and were better-prepared to take action.  Mind you, that also meant there was plenty of information which the Europeans could learn from, had they wished..

Mar 27, 2020 -- 8:02PM, maleuk01. wrote:

Worst hit countries seem in Europe and USA even more so than China where it started.Are caucasians more susceptable or is heat a big decider?Would be interesting to see if there are any breakdown figures to who has died in the uk and ethnic background compared to national percentages.

Apparently there's a big centre of cases in the West Midlands. Don't know how true but authorities believe it is in the Muslim communities as their culture is finding it harder to self-isolate (sorry, this may be a poor paraphrasing) so that may diminish anything to do with breakdown of ethnicity.

Similar Spain and Italy are both very family-orientated societies possible adding to its ability to spread.

I,d read west midlands was due to seomone returning ftrom abroad without informing /telling anyone and mixing with a large church group of older people

Makes sense. Quite a few outbreaks have been due to church meetings.