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I didn't know, so I went and checked.
So, without checking yourself, would you like to hazard a guess as to either the annual total or the daily equivalent.
So, without checking yourself, would you like to hazard a guess as to either the annual total or the daily equivalent.
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2018 616,014
2017 607,172 2016 597,206 2015 602,782 2014 570,341 2013 576,458 2012 569,024 2011 552,232 2010 561,666 2009 559,617 2008 579,697 2007 574,687 2006 572,224 2005 582,964 2004 584,791 2003 612,085 2002 608,045 2001 604,393 2000 610,579 1999 629,476 1998 627,592 1997 632,517 1996 638,879 1995 641,712 1994 626,222 1993 658,194 1992 634,238 1991 646,181 1990 641,799 1989 657,733 1988 649,178 1987 644,342 1986 660,735 1985 670,656 1984 644,918 1983 659,101 1982 662,801 1981 657,974 1980 661,519 1979 675,576 1978 667,177 1977 655,143 1976 680,799 1975 662,477 1974 667,359 1973 669,692 1972 673,938 1971 645,078 1970 655,385 |
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Rules are for fools...
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There's always one.
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Here it is, in a more pleasant format than that presented by Petraco.
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What was most interesting for me was to find that the 2018 figures were only published on 17 January 2020.
Does this mean that the 2020 figures will only be published in January 2022? |
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These are registered deaths, which isn't necessarily the year of death, there will be a small number that move in to the year after death.
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Just for perspective, in an average year, the flu alone kills between 290,000 and 650,000 worldwide. (Coronavirus. in contrast, has only killed around 25,000 at this point.)
In the UK alone, we average over 15,000 deaths a year from the flu. Five winters ago we lost 27,000 - not that the press or public noticed much! The USA lost around 62,000 to the flu just two years ago. The figures from Coronavirus are scary when we look at them day by day. But many epidemics would have been similarly scary had we all been following them to this extent. Clearly this will go down as one of the bad ones. The real question is whether it'll be so bad that it's worth capsizing much of the economy for. (Even assuming you buy the idea that lockdowns, for example, are the solution.) |
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In a perverse way, the more successful the lockdown measures are in limiting those exposed to the virus, the more fuel it will eventually give those who will subsequently claim that it wasn't needed.
As regards death from flu, whilst I am not disputing them, it does require to be remembered that they are estimates. Flu is not a notifiable disease, unlike COVID-19. |
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honkyjoe,so what do you think we should do ?
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Flu is not a notifiable disease, unlike COVID-19.
That's true. But that's more of a technical distinction rather than a real one. Most of the people who 'die' of the flu are dying primarily because of an underlying condition (or an immune system worn out by many years of being alive). It's just the case that the flu is the final thing that carries them off when they were close to death in any case. The same is true of the Coronavirus deaths. However, if you die of the flu, but have an underlying condition, the latter will usually be put down as the reason for death. In contrast, if you have tested positive for CV, then the CV will be put down as the reason for death - even if, as with flu, the CV may have been no more than the final straw for your weakened system, and something else could easily have carried you off in a few months instead. |
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Someone posted an article by a senior retired doctor just yesterday that discussed that technical distinction.
What does appear to be measurable is the brutality of COVID-19, individuals requiring, on average, more time on a ventilator. From Cuomo's press briefing yesterday: COVID-19 patients average time on ventilator: 11 - 21 days (vs. 3 - 4 days for non-COVID-19 patients). "We have patients that have been 20 days 30 days on a ventilator. The longer you are on a ventilator, the more likely you are not going get off a ventilator" |
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They do require more treatment. Although 90% of the ones on ventilators do go on to die. Basically, if you're really that sick, the ventilator probably won't help you. I take your point, though.
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are there any known lasting effects on people who recover ?
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"are there any known lasting effects on people who recover ?"
This was a question asked on the Q+A to a medical practitioner. The answer was if you had severe symptons then it was likely. |
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In reality, it is far too early to be able to provide definitive answers.
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The lockdowns will Spread the spread , other than that there is no much can be done , Depending on Numbers I would expect an extension
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Gazo, if it was just me, and I didn't have to care about public opinion, I'd just send everybody under 60 back to work. I'd insist that the older people and those with serious underlying conditions were keeping themselves apart, and I'd wait for the virus to work its way through the population - which I think it would do within a couple of months. Plenty of people would get it, but most would fight it off. Obviously I'd want to keep expanding hospital capacity - I might have to ration the use of ventilators, particularly for those over 80. I might also insist on a ban (or a 14 day quarantine) on those flying in. That wouldn't be popular, but it would keep the country ticking over, and I reckon we would mostly come back from it. Crucially, it wouldn't cause the sort of economic damage to the country that'll see many lives needlessly sacrificed in the future, and which will condemn the majority of us to a very much reduced quality of life.
If I did have to care about public opinion, though - and as soon as deaths starting coming in across Europe at the beginning of March, it should have been clear that this needed a proper solution that would 'fix' it and satisfy the press and public as well - then I hope I would have learnt the clear lessons coming out of the bundles of data emanating from Asia towards the end of February. It was fairly clear that we needed some sort of mass testing system similar to the one in South Korea. I've bored enough people on the forum with my ideas on this, but if you're really interested, see my post at 12:16 on March 25th on the 'How is a 3 week lockdown going to fix this' thread: https://community.betfair.com/chit_chat/go/thread/view/94038/31636471/how-is-a-3-week-lockdown-going-to-fix-this#flvWelcomeHeader |
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I believe the Figures from London over the coming weeks will determine what plans are going forward .....
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I have been unwell for a few days were I in London I would deffo say covid , the numbers are so low where I live , I doubt I have it , Never the less , We will follow the rules and the Mrs has self isolated , I have to wonder how many have been tested in some areas compared to others ???
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Spectrum of illness severity — The spectrum of symptomatic infection ranges from mild to critical; most infections are not severe [31,33-38]. Specifically, in a report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention that included approximately 44,500 confirmed infections with an estimation of disease severity [39]:
●Mild (no or mild pneumonia) was reported in 81 percent. ●Severe disease (eg, with dyspnea, hypoxia, or >50 percent lung involvement on imaging within 24 to 48 hours) was reported in 14 percent. ●Critical disease (eg, with respiratory failure, shock, or multiorgan dysfunction) was reported in 5 percent. ●The overall case fatality rate was 2.3 percent; no deaths were reported among noncritical cases. According to a joint World Health Organization (WHO)-China fact-finding mission, the case-fatality rate ranged from 5.8 percent in Wuhan to 0.7 percent in the rest of China |
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That data would suggest to me that most patients who require a ventilator make it out the other side, but I'm not a medic
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14% is pretty high, the worry is if the recovered have long term damage -lung x rays on some of the chinese who were discharged werent great.
it really isnt like the flu. |
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16 or 1700 deaths a day in the UK.
From the media and govt coverage it’s as if the only deaths each day are covid-19 ones. |
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lockdown and social isolating has been vital
but was brought in far too late. pity we go down the herd immunity route with flu, and spikes occur when we vaccinate for the wrong strains still, the government like to keep pension costs down, and the old fools are easily foxed. |
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Highest daily totals so far for the UK, 2,921 positive tests and 188 deaths.
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"14% is pretty high"
Sure but it's 14% of confirmed cases. There will be more uncomfirmed cases than confirmed ones. That's probably the main reason why the Wuhan death rate was so much higher than the rest of China. |
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That 14% is 4.26% if applied to the rest of China, and we don't know how many cases in the rest of China there were that weren't tested. Severe cases would be 3.5% tops on that basis, and could be as low as 1%
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The Diamond Princess could act as a good proxy. Over 3,700 people - many of them rather, erm, advanced in years - stuck together in close confinement. They were basically left to fend for themselves. In fact, only 10 of them have died.
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I will concede it's hard to remain calm when the figure jumps up by over half for two days in succession.
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Sky misreported, 181 deaths today, 113 yesterday, and 43 the day before but that was just an 8 hour period.
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115 active cases still on the diamond princess and 15 serious/critical - and it started over a month ago.
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105 active
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Here are the updated graphs for the UK.
Worrying beginning of trends on both.  |
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Most of them were high-risk, though, and valuable time was lost getting them medical help. A number had deteriorated quite severely before they were given the necessary assistance. Under the circumstances we should be expecting high casualties. So far the number of deaths has remained fairly low.
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After a week of treading water, it does look as though we're finally getting into the serious part.
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if we had taken the appropriate response at the time we wouldnt be shutting the economy down now.
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Yes, it does feel like the next couple of weeks will be grim.
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An interesting article in the Spectator about interpretation of death rates and how we record them in relation to this virus
www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think |
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If the lockdown has its effect, we ought to see the death rate starting to drop beginning with the figures which will be released a week next Thursday. That is virtually a fortnight away though.
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