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tobermory
25 Mar 20 20:55
Joined:
Date Joined: 01 Mar 08
| Topic/replies: 59,694 | Blogger: tobermory's blog
This is what the Oxford study suggests

from the Spectator:

Britain is now locked down for at least three weeks, but could the government’s original policy of relying on herd immunity have been right all along? That is the inference of a team of epidemiologists from Oxford university, whose modelling produces remarkably different results from that of Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College. It was the Imperial College model which, on Monday 16 March which led to the dramatic U-turn, and the government’s adoption of a complete suppression policy for Covid-19.

Like everything being published about coronavirus at the moment, the Oxford study comes with a health warning. It has not yet been peer-reviewed and, like all form of modelling, it relies on the quality of the data and assumptions which are fed into it. But if it is anywhere close to reflecting the truth, it raises questions about a policy of seeking to suppress Covid-19, with all the lockdowns and economic damage which comes with it. Infection with SARS-CoV-2 - the virus which causes Covid-19 - may be already so established in the population that it might be pointless trying to contain it.

The good news, on the other hand, is that if the Oxford model is correct, it suggests the disease is a lot less deadly than has been feared. It would also suggest that the epidemic will be in decline much sooner than most currently believe, because there will soon be few people left for the virus to infect. The Oxford model suggests that the virus might have been in circulation in Britain for four weeks before the first death was recorded and that a large proportion, if not the majority, of the UK population might already be infected.

Running the model with slightly different assumptions produced estimates that by last Thursday, between 36 per cent and 68 per cent of the UK population had already been infected with the virus, with the vast majority of the population showing no symptoms whatsoever.  An Italian study published yesterday – which analysed the results from a village near Venice where all 3,000 residents were tested for the virus – suggested that between 50 per cent and 75 per cent of those infected show no symptoms.

It has to be emphasised that the Oxford study is theoretical, and it shouldn't be taken as a call to end the lockdown restrictions - at least, not yet. What it does show is the wide gap between scientists on the likely path of the epidemic. Above all, it underlines the importance of finding out how widespread the infection is in the UK population.  All policy hinges on this, yet no-one has any idea of how many people have the virus. As a matter of urgency, we need to test a randomised sample of the population to find this out. The Oxford team says it will begin testing a sample of the population for evidence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. It should come as no surprise if, as more evidence comes in and we have a better idea of infection rates, we end up a different policy on Covid-19.
Pause Switch to Standard View What if half the population has it...
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Report Injera March 25, 2020 8:02 PM GMT
Well worth crashing the economy then.....


I’m no virologist, but how is that the virus can kill some and display no symptoms in others? That’s quite a contrast in outcomes.
Report jollyswagman March 25, 2020 8:05 PM GMT
i heard of this research yesterday, sadly my enthusiasm was dampened as it has received lots of criticism from other academics, dodgy assumptions.
Report jollyswagman March 25, 2020 8:07 PM GMT
at a minimum it does show how we need to test more.
Report saddo March 25, 2020 8:08 PM GMT
He would have been crucified for not taking actions which ensured crashing the economy injera, every other country has done it so they must be right. The criticism on here is that he should have done it sooner, but there is every chance that he has timed it better than most.
Report peckerdunne March 25, 2020 8:10 PM GMT
Should be one heck of an Easter party..
Report tobermory March 25, 2020 8:17 PM GMT

Mar 25, 2020 -- 9:05PM, jollyswagman wrote:


i heard of this research yesterday, sadly my enthusiasm was dampened as it has received lots of criticism from other academics, dodgy assumptions.


When reputations are on the line academics will trash each others work. And they are on the line in a big way here. If the economy is reduced to dust because some Imperial College boffins underestimated the numbers already infected, by a factor of 100, then no one will be asking their opinion on this stuff again.

Report tobermory March 25, 2020 8:20 PM GMT
There was another model by The Royal Society of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, which estimated 23 million infected in the UK.

Are there other models to look at ? If not, then the official, panic mongering, Imperial College one is looking like an outlier.
Report Injera March 25, 2020 8:22 PM GMT
Reminds me a bit of the Foot and Mouth in 2001.

6 million sheep and cattle slaughtered.
Report jollyswagman March 25, 2020 8:32 PM GMT
indeed tobermory, some of it has been described as academic posturing.

i am sure they are all trying but many are putting out research which isnt peer reviewed in the rush to get some answers.

i dont understand the imperial people at all, it is a 13 year old model built to examine flu. they ignored covid data available from 24 january up until early march then when they put some of the actual data into the model they were horrified that the government policy of mitigation / herd immunity (which they decided on due to imperials earlier work) would lead to 250,000 deaths a number deemed too high. actual hospital admissions are double what imperial assumed. this model wasnt released until last week so wasnt peer reviewed and some academics have since criticised it.

one chap who spent 30 years in public health has made some comparisons to foot and mouth (where imperial were also involved).


let's hope we are now going in the right direction but some experts say a lock down without mass testing is pointless as many new cases will emerge as soon as we slack off. it really isnt an easy situation. probably 12-18 months for a vaccine, ffs.
Report lfc1971 March 25, 2020 8:40 PM GMT
nobody knows what's going on.
Report jollyswagman March 25, 2020 8:45 PM GMT
i was hoping for something a bit more sagacious when i saw you had posted lfc, i was counting on you to have cured corona before bed time.

you have let me down.... again Sad
Report moisok March 25, 2020 8:45 PM GMT
good point  lfc  - how many did they slaughter but didn't have the disease

farmers stopping min and ag coming on their farms thinking they were bringing it with them etc   espceially when those farms were clean etc

all forgotten now of course  except by some farmers
Report Injera March 25, 2020 8:49 PM GMT
Scientific research and study is a moveable feast. Interpretation of data as we know, depends on the interpreter..

Let’s not forget we were told early on ‘there’s no immunity’ to covid-19. Well there is as many, many people are thankfully recovering or never knew they had it.
Report peckerdunne March 25, 2020 8:50 PM GMT
Laugh a smoothie nor a shrewdie
Report duffy March 25, 2020 8:54 PM GMT
The 1.5 million who got letters stating the most vulnerable should be tested pronto, if there is a decent sized amount of them that have already had it without being knocked over then how encouraging would that be in relation to the healthy part of the population.
Report lapsy pa March 25, 2020 8:55 PM GMT
If half the population is after having it,why are they looking for all the equipment like ventilators and building new hospitals now?
Report jollyswagman March 25, 2020 8:56 PM GMT
hang on duffy you need the crisis to last long enough for the football season to be called off, you need to slow down a bit Laugh
Report saddo March 25, 2020 8:57 PM GMT
I think it possible I had it in January while in Bracknell, was quite illish for around a month though kept working, popped two ribs coughing. If there is a  test out there I'll buy one out of interest. Those who have had it could get back to work straight after the peak, if it was policeable to do so.
Report boxingthefox March 25, 2020 8:58 PM GMT

Mar 25, 2020 -- 9:22PM, Injera wrote:


Reminds me a bit of the Foot and Mouth in 2001.6 million sheep and cattle slaughtered.


Indeed Injera, What is the right reaction, I'm sure I don't have a clue, an impossible call for all governments, easier of course in Autocratic regimes which bear no comparison to our society. I hope our government have got it more right than wrong.

Report Injera March 25, 2020 8:59 PM GMT
Let’s hope things don’t get as bad as ‘17-‘18. Between December and March in England and Wales there were 50k EXCESS winter deaths....over and above other deaths....

That’s 420 a day. 145 of those were respiratory deaths... The flu jab failed.



https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2017to2018provisionaland2016to2017final
Report boxingthefox March 25, 2020 9:00 PM GMT
^^^ to your 8.22 post
Report boxingthefox March 25, 2020 9:03 PM GMT
ignore rhat
Report lfc1971 March 25, 2020 9:05 PM GMT
sorry jollyswagman , I can’t say it any simpler than that .

everyone thinks he knows what is going on , I once saw a rat coming out of a restaurant kitchen
Report lfc1971 March 25, 2020 9:13 PM GMT
The scientists seem quite confident in their forecasts of the duration , blinded ?
Report lfc1971 March 25, 2020 9:21 PM GMT
Wouldn’t it be nice if we could all just hibernate for 6 months like hedgehogs
and wake up when it’s all over
Report lfc1971 March 25, 2020 9:30 PM GMT
Let’s face the facts that human beings may be wiped out , leaving only the humble hedgehog

would that be so bad ?
Report pa lapsy March 25, 2020 9:31 PM GMT
Report jollyswagman March 25, 2020 9:32 PM GMT
Grin

that's more like it lfc
Report lfc1971 March 25, 2020 9:32 PM GMT
Happy very nice pa lapsy
Report lfc1971 March 25, 2020 9:33 PM GMT
an improvement jolly , thanks
Report Darlo Bantam March 25, 2020 9:35 PM GMT
i am sure they are all trying but many are putting out research which isnt peer reviewed in the rush to get some answers.

I believe there's been more papers and research done about this coronavirus than anything before. Shows you the clamour to get on top of it but how much is also peer reviewed, etc.
Report lfc1971 March 25, 2020 9:36 PM GMT
A cute animal diversion from the fear
Report lfc1971 March 25, 2020 9:38 PM GMT
All five hedgehogs in my little garden are sleeping soundly
Report pa lapsy March 25, 2020 9:41 PM GMT
Good lfc,was worried with my two, getting a bit late tho april isn't unknown,1st time i saw the field mouse and his 3white feet this morning since november,he looked old.

Report Darlo Bantam March 25, 2020 9:52 PM GMT

Mar 25, 2020 -- 10:36PM, lfc1971 wrote:


A cute animal diversion from the fear


Don't know if it's just me, but with the extra quiet and serenity the last couple of days, spring seems to have really sprung more than I've noticed before.

Report tobermory March 25, 2020 10:28 PM GMT

Mar 25, 2020 -- 9:02PM, Injera wrote:


Well worth crashing the economy then.....I’m no virologist, but how is that the virus can kill some and display no symptoms in others? That’s quite a contrast in outcomes.


There was a study in Wuhan that indicated Blood Type was a big factor as to whether symptoms were mild or severe. Blood Type 'A' was bad news apparently. It's a bit speculative but I do think Africa/South America have very low incidence 'A' and it hasn't really taken off there as expected.

Report i_agree_with_nick March 26, 2020 10:31 AM GMT
How does the study reconcile the fact that approximately 97,000 people in the UK have been tested with 9,529 having been confirmed positive?
Report Dr Crippen March 26, 2020 11:13 AM GMT
but could the government’s original policy of relying on herd immunity have been right all along?

That will come anyway regardless of whether they're relying on it. 

It's a case of which comes first, a vaccine or herd immunity.
Report lurka March 26, 2020 11:35 AM GMT

Mar 26, 2020 -- 12:13PM, Dr Crippen wrote:


but could the government’s original policy of relying on herd immunity have been right all along?That will come anyway regardless of whether they're relying on it.  It's a case of which comes first, a vaccine or herd immunity.


The UK government's original herd immunity policy, by their own admission, would have involved more deaths being suffered in the short-term as a hedge against a second wave coming in winter which would cause a lot more deaths. If they have indeed achieved herd immunity by somewhat of a 'fluke' (ie they never thought it would happen so quickly and if it has done then there will be no second wave), then all of those extra deaths in the short-term would have been unnecessary deaths, so I don't see how anyone could say that their original herd immunity policy would have been right. They came out and said they weren't concerned with sporting events spreading the virus in the early stages, which was unbelievable really. Just as well they deviated from it and went with a policy which sought to reduce the spread as much as possible.

I doubt that anywhere near 50% have been infected and I think the results of that study should not have been made public, as it can only lead to complacency amongst the public and the results of the study could be way off.

How does the study reconcile the fact that approximately 97,000 people in the UK have been tested with 9,529 having been confirmed positive?
Not sure what point you are trying to make here but 90% of people testing negative does not show anything either way. If 50% or more have been infected, most of them wouldn't test positive at this stage, as the virus will have passed and they would have recovered, and if 50% haven't been infected then they won't test positive either. Only antibody testing, which hasn't been rolled out yet, will tell you how many have been infected to date.

Report Dr Crippen March 26, 2020 12:36 PM GMT
Just as well they deviated from it and went with a policy which sought to reduce the spread as much as possible.

The government's policy is to try to slow down the number of cases coming through in order to spread the load on the NHS.

Herd immunity will happen regardless.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 26, 2020 3:22 PM GMT
The experts.

.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model
Report lapsy pa March 26, 2020 3:28 PM GMT
A positive artical IS,hope it is correct.
Report ooO{Alpha Centauri}Ooo March 26, 2020 3:29 PM GMT
This

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms
Report Dr Crippen March 26, 2020 3:44 PM GMT
How accurate is the test for coronavirus?
Which might explain why we're not doing as much testing as we could.

Because if you're positive they wont cart you off to hospital until you're in a bad way. And they don't need test results to tell them that.
Report smartie3 March 26, 2020 4:06 PM GMT
To Saddo.
I beleive there is some truth in this.
Report Darlo Bantam March 26, 2020 4:57 PM GMT

Mar 26, 2020 -- 4:29PM, ooO{Alpha Centauri}Ooo wrote:


Thishttps://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms


And that's why we should be testing so much more. Korea approach and have a less severe shutdown as a result.

Report Injera March 26, 2020 5:54 PM GMT
IS - thanks for this. Just goes to show it’s not wise to blindly accept experts’ predictions.

They are often wrong. Ferguson has thankfully admitted his mistake.
Report Darlo Bantam March 26, 2020 5:57 PM GMT

Mar 26, 2020 -- 4:22PM, Ibrahima Sonko wrote:


The experts..https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model


Key paragraphs.

He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.

To put this number in context, there are usually thousands of deaths from the flu each year in the U.K.

Report Just Checking March 26, 2020 7:47 PM GMT
Dr Crippen
The government's policy is to try to slow down the number of cases coming through in order to spread the load on the NHS.
Herd immunity will happen regardless.
---

Crippen is correct, unless a magical cure appears, that's surely the endgame.
Just because the phrase scared people and they went into pants wetting mode when it was said doesn't mean "Herd Immunity" isn't the likely end result, either via vaccine or "caught it".

What other possible outcome is there that will eventually allow going back to normal? Divine intervention?
Report lurka March 26, 2020 7:57 PM GMT

Mar 26, 2020 -- 1:36PM, Dr Crippen wrote:


Just as well they deviated from it and went with a policy which sought to reduce the spread as much as possible.The government's policy is to try to slow down the number of cases coming through in order to spread the load on the NHS. Herd immunity will happen regardless.


Yes. But their strategy under the 'herd immunity' policy was to get a larger number of people infected and hence a larger number of dead, while still trying to keep the NHS from being overwhelmed, until their modellers came back and said they'd got it wrong and that the original herd immunity policy would result in far too many hospitalisations and deaths, so they changed from the 'herd immunity' policy to one which clamped down on the spread a lot more. As I said above, the UK government initially didn't want to close down sporting events and they said they weren't worried about the spread from sporting events. This was part of their 'herd immunity' policy to encourage the spread more than other countries. In fact it was clubs who decided to call off PL games after Arteta and some players got affected, not the government.

I'm not sure there is an historic example of any country trying to achieve herd immunity by deliberately exposing its population to a disease and encouraging its spread in an uncontrolled manner. Herd immunity is achieved by giving a vaccine (a weakened and much easier to beat version of the disease) to its population in a controlled manner normally. Herd immunity by exposure to the actual disease is a bonkers policy and it hasn't been their policy for most of this time, so to achieve it now (as the Oxford study suggests) is a complete fluke. But I doubt the Oxford study.

Report Ibrahima Sonko March 26, 2020 9:08 PM GMT
Dont look at the daily wire now injera Plain
Report Injera March 26, 2020 9:29 PM GMT
Yes , thanks IS. That was on another thread. No surprise it’s not being picked up more widely. It’s an incredible development.

Very hard to know what the truth is.
Report Angoose March 26, 2020 9:32 PM GMT
As always, there are many versions of the truth.
Report Angoose March 26, 2020 9:33 PM GMT
Part of the problem is that we tend to imagine that our beliefs are the truth, and that the truth is obvious.
They rarely are, it rarely is.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 26, 2020 10:14 PM GMT
Indeed injera, hard to know why it isnt out in the uk media.
Report tobermory March 26, 2020 10:28 PM GMT

Mar 26, 2020 -- 10:32PM, Angoose wrote:


As always, there are many versions of the truth.


None these people doing modelling for this believe they have the truth. Just probablities.

Report macarony March 26, 2020 10:47 PM GMT
Why didn't they just isolate the most vulnerable people and provide for them until this blows over instead of sending the world back to the stone age. Most people that contract this virus will have slightly unpleasant symptoms before making a recovery.
Shutting down the world economy makes no sense at all.
And just how long do they think people are going to comply before there is an almighty kick off?
Report Darlo Bantam March 26, 2020 10:53 PM GMT
Most people that contract this virus will have slightly unpleasant symptoms before making a recovery.

I hope.

I've read about significant heart and lung damage to those that contract the virus though I suspect that may also be the more serious cases.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 26, 2020 10:57 PM GMT
well said tobes, people like angoose start freds at an alarming rate and spout nonsense, then reply with nothing but anger on every fred.

I know which way to turn but people like Angoose trouble me. Especially when they are flooding a forum.
Report edy March 26, 2020 10:59 PM GMT
Angoose rarely sounds particularly angry to me. Maybe you need to be more balanced. Happy
Report edy March 26, 2020 11:01 PM GMT
Instead of allowing your pure hatred of him to misjudge his emotions.Happy
Report thegiggilo March 26, 2020 11:01 PM GMT
Think we can see who the angry ones are..Grinbless.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 26, 2020 11:07 PM GMT
the response i wanted bar 1 Excited

You can measure the angry by their response times.

god i love trolling the stupid.
Report edy March 26, 2020 11:09 PM GMT
That's not very nice of you. Can't we get along? Sad
Report edy March 26, 2020 11:11 PM GMT
I simply do not think it is ok to defame fellow forumites like you did in your 10:57 post. It does indeed make me furious to read things like that. We should not be doing that. Especially not in times of of hardship like these. It is immature and it is mean!
Report kincsem March 26, 2020 11:11 PM GMT
Experts with no track record - bluffers.
But if you ask their opinion they will give one.
Report thegiggilo March 26, 2020 11:12 PM GMT
Lol..
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 26, 2020 11:22 PM GMT
Before i start, i dont mind you edy.

But i speak from my truth. I dont think i defamed a person.

Angoose has a view on everything and starts too many freds and never follows up in the freds he starts. Just post snipes.

Whether that is ok, its only my view, which is nothing,

Like the libtard left do, times of hardship but you forget austerity.
Report edy March 26, 2020 11:29 PM GMT
This isn't so much about me, Ibrahima. I can take this. I'm a relatively tough cookie and contrary to what I wrote in my previous post, I rarely get angry. You will know this as well, and I personally find it hard to believe that you indeed perceived my posts as particularly angry. I'm not entirely sure what the point of that post was. To me it looks rather odd and maybe not entirely and carefully thought out.

Either way, I simply know for a fact that you will have disappointed others. Sensible souls like akabula. He will be disappointed to no end that you, one of his dearest and most respected friends on here, are lashing out at your perceived political enemies for no real reason. That you troll them, call them "libtard left", try to score cheap points.
Report edy March 26, 2020 11:30 PM GMT
*I'm not entirely sure what the point of that post of yours at 11:07 was.
Report Angoose March 26, 2020 11:33 PM GMT

Mar 27, 2020 -- 12:22AM, Ibrahima Sonko wrote:


Before i start, i dont mind you edy. But i speak from my truth. I dont think i defamed a person.Angoose has a view on everything and starts too many freds and never follows up in the freds he starts. Just post snipes.Whether that is ok, its only my view, which is nothing,Like the libtard left do, times of hardship but you forget austerity.


If you could send me the latest version of the  forum users guide, it would be most appreciated.
I’ve lost my original copy.

But that I appear to upset you on an anonymous, and ultimately meaningless, forum likely reveals more about you than it does about me.

Report Just Checking March 26, 2020 11:37 PM GMT
"But that I appear to upset you on an anonymous, and ultimately meaningless, forum likely reveals more about you than it does about me."

Is this your first day on the internet Angoose, that IS the internet WinkTongue OutLaugh
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 26, 2020 11:42 PM GMT
You think at these times, this forum is meaningless, shame on you. But i can understand your posting if you feel that way.

This forum that you treat as meaningless that is a big part of the current situation.

These conversations are vital, for me to call you something and for you to call me something back.

All healthy.
Report Angoose March 26, 2020 11:45 PM GMT
During the Brexit debate, there were a number of posters who would regularly express their anger and frustration regarding the content and quantity of threads that I created.

It would be dressed up, but what they were really annoyed about was that the views that my posts expressed differed from theirs.
And that just wouldn’t do.

I didn’t want to be in their gang, and for some strange reason they became irrational about it.
Report edy March 26, 2020 11:46 PM GMT
Oh

Ibrahima...you are...sometimes on occasions more disappointing than sauerkraut that is only slightly sour.
Report edy March 26, 2020 11:46 PM GMT
Sorry, that was far too mean. I take it back. Forgive me!
Report Angoose March 26, 2020 11:46 PM GMT
Calling people names has never been my thing. Not going to start doing it now.
Report edy March 26, 2020 11:48 PM GMT
Ibrahima, you are...sometimes slightly less nice than Mother Teresa was!!
Report edy March 26, 2020 11:48 PM GMT
Was that acceptable or also too mean? Scared I don't have much practice at this.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 26, 2020 11:50 PM GMT
edy, goodnight and wish you well.
xxx

You should not really care about me.
Report thegiggilo March 26, 2020 11:50 PM GMT
Boston 150 hospital staff infected,what could possibly go wrong..
Report edy March 26, 2020 11:51 PM GMT
No no, I have a good one!

Ibrahima, you are only slightly more funny than Jack Whitehall!
Report edy March 26, 2020 11:53 PM GMT
I'm disgusted with myself for that one Plain I don't want to hurt you extraordinarily like that, Ibrahima.
Report Just Checking March 27, 2020 12:00 AM GMT
"Ibrahima, you are only slightly more funny than Jack Whitehall!"
These insults are getting below the belt. What next, comparing him to Michael Macintyre?

FFS Just realised he's probably technically self employed .. will he be "claiming" for lost earnings, based on the bizarre theory he's a "comedian"?
Report edy March 27, 2020 12:02 AM GMT
I know, JC. As I already said, I'm disgusted with myself for posting that. It was entirely uncalled for. I'd just like to clarify that I wish to apologise and that it does not represent my true opinion.
Report Coachbuster March 27, 2020 2:49 AM GMT
Boston hospital numbers shocking ...how come this wasn't on the news  ?
Report Coachbuster March 27, 2020 3:00 AM GMT
I say the numbers  are around the 2  million mark and obviously rising    ...have been using a scale based on the likelihood of  an elderly unwell person catching this at the outset and scaled .

  This was always going to spread among younger people anyway ( many it appears not even showing symptoms) for a myriad of reasons  ....   more likely out and about ,mixing ,grouping , schools ,pubs ,partners  ..so on and so on ...   older people would much less likely catch this esp as many don't tend to go far on average  .

Then if you  read about cases of   people you know about and even on this forum it seems at the moment the numbers who believe they have or have had the  virus (or maybe flu ) is  around 5%   ,  many more in London . 

If it was half the population many ,many more oldies would be dead by now  .....i reckon allowing for lag  ,the death rate will be around 0.5   ....an example cited of 20,000 by the experts  would then be 4m infected in total  (Not all at same time of course)
Report Injera March 27, 2020 7:59 AM GMT
The ‘normal’ death rate is often close to 0.1 %. 10 deaths per 1000 people.


Sadly this overall picture is not being presented. It’s as if death never occurs.....
Report HonkyJoe March 27, 2020 9:56 AM GMT
If we all watched web-sites showing how many people were dying each day just of the flu, many would be shocked at the numbers, and would be constantly pointing out the new trends which told us that the situation was getting to breaking point in this country or that country.

Sadly, once the world starts going into a panic, governments feel compelled to act.
Report sageform March 27, 2020 10:51 AM GMT
There are thousands dying every day from all sorts of things but they don't all need oxygen or ventilators and are not generally in hotspots like Covid. The more people who have had it mildly without realising the better so long as they have not spread it. The emergency will only be over when most people are immune, either having recovered or had a vaccine when one is available.
Report Angoose March 27, 2020 11:07 AM GMT
How many thousands die every day?
Report HonkyJoe March 27, 2020 11:51 AM GMT
Preliminary data suggests that around 90% of those put on ventilators go on to die in any case!  More ventilators won't help the majority of the truly sick.
Report HonkyJoe March 27, 2020 11:52 AM GMT
I see you've answered your own question elsewhere. Angoose...
Report Angoose March 27, 2020 11:58 AM GMT
Indeed, it was something that I had no idea about and wanted to get some figures for myself given the numbers been loosely thrown around on here for flu related deaths.
Report Angoose March 27, 2020 12:01 PM GMT
And here is something interesting that came out of Cuomo's press briefing yesterday.

COVID-19 patients average time on ventilator: 11 - 21 days (vs. 3 - 4 days for non-COVID-19 patients).

"We have patients that have been 20 days 30 days on a ventilator. The longer you are on a ventilator, the more likely you are not going get off a ventilator".
Report sageform March 27, 2020 1:23 PM GMT
you only have to think that the population is 66 million and life expectancy is around 70 (averaging all who die young from accidents with those who dies of old age) to work out roughly how many die each year.
Report Angoose March 27, 2020 1:37 PM GMT
So you have no idea.Happy

Report Coachbuster March 27, 2020 7:17 PM GMT
it's not so much about how many would die normally, but the potential of this virus  .


this will be a low death percentage hopefully (0.1 % maybe at a guess )only because  of the drastic measures taken .... without such measures death rates would probably be up as high as 3- 5% of the population .

think of all the ill and elderly folk behind shields for a start
Report Coachbuster March 27, 2020 7:19 PM GMT
it will be interesting to see how many  eventually  tally up as contractors  ...  4 ,8 ,16 , 32 million in the UK ? who knows
Report macarony March 27, 2020 7:25 PM GMT
If 70000 deaths regardless of cause then is around 1 in every 1000.
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