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Herd immunity is out of the window.
What exactly is going to change after 3 weeks of this that will enable the relaxation of these restrictions?
Nothing at all surely. All the bad consequences of people interacting at normal levels in late March will be the same in mid April and beyond.
Logically this will have to go on til there is a vaccine, which could be 18 months apparently.
By the time there is one there will be no money to buy it.
What exactly is going to change after 3 weeks of this that will enable the relaxation of these restrictions?
Nothing at all surely. All the bad consequences of people interacting at normal levels in late March will be the same in mid April and beyond.
Logically this will have to go on til there is a vaccine, which could be 18 months apparently.
By the time there is one there will be no money to buy it.
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To say masks won't prevent spread is wrong, been proven already a home made mask from a tea towel will do a job in preventing spread by both those with and helping those without the virus, homemade masks and gloves will protect you. It's a no brainer.
Should have closed the ports when it became clear what was happening in China.
but no one did. every western country did more or less the same thing. were still playing football with crowds in a lot of countries in the week of 10/11 march with fans flying from one country to another for European matches
it was all to do with money .... every man and his dog knew the issue ,that's why i stayed away from pubs at least 6 weeks ago when those first cases came to light in Brighton 10/02/20
i was laughed at when i said the virus could be in the community undetected under the radar
i was laughed at when i said the virus could be in the community undetected under the radar
only 140,000 tip over in the uk which is a scandal but no one is interested in that or go to panic mode
meanwhile if you want to make some money I suggest you look to russia belarus and the friendly soccer ball matches
instead of being obsessed with numbers of flu victims
meanwhile if you want to make some money I suggest you look to russia belarus and the friendly soccer ball matches
instead of being obsessed with numbers of flu victims
screaming from beneaththewaves 27 Mar 20 22:53
it took 4 months to record 300,000 global cases. It has taken 6 days to record the second 300,000.
It took 4 months to record 13,000 global deaths. The number of global deaths has more than doubled in the following 6 days. Today 3,000 recorded deaths there were only 4 times that in the first 4 months.
In a weeks time we will be past a million cases and pushing 100,000 deaths - you can then keep doubling until we hit the peak which in the uk terms is expected to be in around 3 months times.
Eh? If we have a million cases in a week's time, and the number is doubling every six days, well over 8 billion people will be infected in three months' time.
Which is a problem, because there are only 7.8 billion people in the world. A virus from which the average person recovers after a couple of weeks can't possibly infect everybody, because it runs out of hosts way before then. That's what herd immunity is.
And that's assuming only one million are infected now. The true number is way higher, with most infected people being told to stay at home and not get tested.
So, as long as you're correct, and the number of infections doubles every six days, the virus has to be gone in less than three months.
Million cases passed with a day to spare
it took 4 months to record 300,000 global cases. It has taken 6 days to record the second 300,000.
It took 4 months to record 13,000 global deaths. The number of global deaths has more than doubled in the following 6 days. Today 3,000 recorded deaths there were only 4 times that in the first 4 months.
In a weeks time we will be past a million cases and pushing 100,000 deaths - you can then keep doubling until we hit the peak which in the uk terms is expected to be in around 3 months times.
Eh? If we have a million cases in a week's time, and the number is doubling every six days, well over 8 billion people will be infected in three months' time.
Which is a problem, because there are only 7.8 billion people in the world. A virus from which the average person recovers after a couple of weeks can't possibly infect everybody, because it runs out of hosts way before then. That's what herd immunity is.
And that's assuming only one million are infected now. The true number is way higher, with most infected people being told to stay at home and not get tested.
So, as long as you're correct, and the number of infections doubles every six days, the virus has to be gone in less than three months.
Million cases passed with a day to spare
Great. That means the peak will be all the sooner.
If the numbers are doubling every six days, and there are currently over 1 million confirmed cases, then there will be 10 billion confirmed cases in 11 weeks' time.
But there are only 7.8 billion people on the planet. So the peak must be sooner than the three months/13 weeks you suggested.
How much sooner depends on how many unconfirmed cases there currently are (the more unconfirmed cases there are right now, the sooner the doubling runs out of human beings to infect). And partly on the fact that no virus can infect everyone at a constant rate. At some point too people onto whom it's being passed are immune, thus denying the virus a viable host in which to survive.
If the numbers are doubling every six days, and there are currently over 1 million confirmed cases, then there will be 10 billion confirmed cases in 11 weeks' time.
But there are only 7.8 billion people on the planet. So the peak must be sooner than the three months/13 weeks you suggested.
How much sooner depends on how many unconfirmed cases there currently are (the more unconfirmed cases there are right now, the sooner the doubling runs out of human beings to infect). And partly on the fact that no virus can infect everyone at a constant rate. At some point too people onto whom it's being passed are immune, thus denying the virus a viable host in which to survive.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock:
163,194 tested
33,718 positive
Best scientific analysis: rate of infection doubling every 3-4 days
12,949 admitted to hospital
2,921 have died
Taken literally, that means that in 30-40 days every single person in the country will have caught the virus (and obviously less than 30-40 days if more than the 33,718 positive cases have currently had it).
This isn't a prediction. It's an illustration of the futility of assuming numbers which are currently doubling at a certain rate will continue to do so.
163,194 tested
33,718 positive
Best scientific analysis: rate of infection doubling every 3-4 days
12,949 admitted to hospital
2,921 have died
Taken literally, that means that in 30-40 days every single person in the country will have caught the virus (and obviously less than 30-40 days if more than the 33,718 positive cases have currently had it).
This isn't a prediction. It's an illustration of the futility of assuming numbers which are currently doubling at a certain rate will continue to do so.
Screamingbtw
Yup. The way the modelling is being taken as gospel really bothers me.
Our government have said they are aiming to keep deaths at no more than 20k. On the current rate of of increase we hit that by end of April, if not before.
What happens afterwards then? Do the deaths just stop?
No, in reality for 20k to be the maximum, the rate of dying must slow right down by a certain point - on the modelling in no more than 4 weeks. And if the rate of death is dropping the rate of infection increase must have already slowed, as the latter is directly related to the former. But what happens after that?
The public - and the media - are now lapping these figures up without any thought.
Mind you, I cannot easily see what else the governments could have done apart from the current measures. The rapid rate of infection would have led to all health services being smashed to bits.
BUT, I do suspect that in the future we will look back and realise we killed MORE people in the long run through decimating the world economies. Even more so if it turns out that CV19 is carried harmlessly by the vast majority of people anyway. All the bleeding hearts don't seem to realise that a decimated economy leads to less money for health services.
I can't help but feel there has been a knee jerk reaction to much of this because governments are so frightened by social media and would have all been slaughtered had they let the virus go unchecked.
Yup. The way the modelling is being taken as gospel really bothers me.
Our government have said they are aiming to keep deaths at no more than 20k. On the current rate of of increase we hit that by end of April, if not before.
What happens afterwards then? Do the deaths just stop?
No, in reality for 20k to be the maximum, the rate of dying must slow right down by a certain point - on the modelling in no more than 4 weeks. And if the rate of death is dropping the rate of infection increase must have already slowed, as the latter is directly related to the former. But what happens after that?
The public - and the media - are now lapping these figures up without any thought.
Mind you, I cannot easily see what else the governments could have done apart from the current measures. The rapid rate of infection would have led to all health services being smashed to bits.
BUT, I do suspect that in the future we will look back and realise we killed MORE people in the long run through decimating the world economies. Even more so if it turns out that CV19 is carried harmlessly by the vast majority of people anyway. All the bleeding hearts don't seem to realise that a decimated economy leads to less money for health services.
I can't help but feel there has been a knee jerk reaction to much of this because governments are so frightened by social media and would have all been slaughtered had they let the virus go unchecked.
An exponential expansion is easy to understand (numbers of cases are currently doubling every 6 days, so will obviously continue to do so until 6 times the population of the planet is infected in three months' time). It's obviously baloney when applied to our actual, finite world when you actually do the calculations, but hardly anyone does. But, as I said, it's easy to understand, so everyone goes along with it.
A Gompertz function (or a biological growth curve as it's called these days) is hard to understand and harder to calculate, because it needs way more data, which we don't have, largely thanks to the Chinese Communist Party being in charge of initiating and measuring the disease. It's a curve which looks exponential, then gradually levels off. It describes the growth of everything in our natural, finite world (think of how a puppy grows exponentially for the first few weeks, yet doesn't become as big as an aircraft carrier after three months). It describes the way a virus spreads before levelling out and being controlled. But, because it's hard to do the maths, and we don't have the data to calculate it accurately, nobody is interested in it.
I agree that I don't think the government could have done anything too much differently. They waited as long as possible to impose lockdown, in order to get the virus spreading to the extent necessary to reach the flattening point sooner rather than later; and did so without (so far) overwhelming the emergency services. There should be more testing to protect NHS workers, but the lack of that is down to the NHS itself, and its bitter refusal to allow private testing. Germany, without a Nationalized Health Service, cheerfully uses the private labs and gets the tests done. It's not hamstrung by ideology.
I'm not sure at all about the shutting down of nearly every shop and other business. I think way more businesses should have been allowed to remain open with rules on restricting customer numbers and keeping people 6 feet apart. Really, the transmission of the virus must be almost entirely airborne. I know the virus can survive on certain surfaces for certain periods, but short of licking your finger, rubbing the surface and then sucking your finger, I don't see how the virus can be transmitted to any meaningful extent by that route.
How do we exit from this? It really has to be sooner rather than later. I'd suggest an acknowledgement that touching surfaces is not a danger in practical terms, and using that as an opening to get businesses going again. (There's a school of thought among German virologists that this is the case -
https://www.merkur.de/welt/markus-lanz-zdf-hendrik-streeck-corona-nrw-uniklinik-bonn-robert-koch-institut-rki-zr-13636707.html
(Points out that it's social interactions rather than touching objects which transmits the virus, so why shut barbers and restaurants?)
The other way out is that it simply fizzles out by the end of the month anyway. The virus runs out of hosts and the flattening of the curve clearly begins. Certainly, the current doubling of confirmed cases every three or four days suggests we must be close to that point.
A Gompertz function (or a biological growth curve as it's called these days) is hard to understand and harder to calculate, because it needs way more data, which we don't have, largely thanks to the Chinese Communist Party being in charge of initiating and measuring the disease. It's a curve which looks exponential, then gradually levels off. It describes the growth of everything in our natural, finite world (think of how a puppy grows exponentially for the first few weeks, yet doesn't become as big as an aircraft carrier after three months). It describes the way a virus spreads before levelling out and being controlled. But, because it's hard to do the maths, and we don't have the data to calculate it accurately, nobody is interested in it.
I agree that I don't think the government could have done anything too much differently. They waited as long as possible to impose lockdown, in order to get the virus spreading to the extent necessary to reach the flattening point sooner rather than later; and did so without (so far) overwhelming the emergency services. There should be more testing to protect NHS workers, but the lack of that is down to the NHS itself, and its bitter refusal to allow private testing. Germany, without a Nationalized Health Service, cheerfully uses the private labs and gets the tests done. It's not hamstrung by ideology.
I'm not sure at all about the shutting down of nearly every shop and other business. I think way more businesses should have been allowed to remain open with rules on restricting customer numbers and keeping people 6 feet apart. Really, the transmission of the virus must be almost entirely airborne. I know the virus can survive on certain surfaces for certain periods, but short of licking your finger, rubbing the surface and then sucking your finger, I don't see how the virus can be transmitted to any meaningful extent by that route.
How do we exit from this? It really has to be sooner rather than later. I'd suggest an acknowledgement that touching surfaces is not a danger in practical terms, and using that as an opening to get businesses going again. (There's a school of thought among German virologists that this is the case -
https://www.merkur.de/welt/markus-lanz-zdf-hendrik-streeck-corona-nrw-uniklinik-bonn-robert-koch-institut-rki-zr-13636707.html
(Points out that it's social interactions rather than touching objects which transmits the virus, so why shut barbers and restaurants?)
The other way out is that it simply fizzles out by the end of the month anyway. The virus runs out of hosts and the flattening of the curve clearly begins. Certainly, the current doubling of confirmed cases every three or four days suggests we must be close to that point.
Totally agree about businesses. At last supermarkets are restricting numbers with people dutifully queuing outside. Dry weather helps...
No reason a similar approach couldn’t be taken elsewhere. The STOP button too readily pressed. Maintaining normality so important whilst educating us all to be sensible. Also, herd immunity is still valid. Healthy people being very mildly infected by minimal contact is surely the long term plan.
No reason a similar approach couldn’t be taken elsewhere. The STOP button too readily pressed. Maintaining normality so important whilst educating us all to be sensible. Also, herd immunity is still valid. Healthy people being very mildly infected by minimal contact is surely the long term plan.
Yes. A readable form of what I said.
To be clear, I do think it's vitally important to keep washing hands and avoid touching your face. But we need to take advantage of doing that, by re-opening shops and other businesses (and some sporting events) with appropriate spacing and limits on numbers.
And we need to take some sort of steps in that direction fast, or there's going to be a wholesale free-for-all at some point, with dire consequences. We have to see some chink of light. Ignore the ban-everything-I-hope-Boris-dies social media storm. They don't go out anyway (least of all to the polling station, it turned out).
To be clear, I do think it's vitally important to keep washing hands and avoid touching your face. But we need to take advantage of doing that, by re-opening shops and other businesses (and some sporting events) with appropriate spacing and limits on numbers.
And we need to take some sort of steps in that direction fast, or there's going to be a wholesale free-for-all at some point, with dire consequences. We have to see some chink of light. Ignore the ban-everything-I-hope-Boris-dies social media storm. They don't go out anyway (least of all to the polling station, it turned out).
20,000 deaths is pie in the sky.
If the kill rate is 0.1% then you will be looking at around 500,000 deaths if 80% are infected in the UK alone.
If the kill rate is 0.1% then you will be looking at around 500,000 deaths if 80% are infected in the UK alone.
Your maths suck drive for...there isn't 600 million in the uk
I think the 3 week lockdown will help reduce the spread but what is the point when people today are flying in on planes from Rome, New York and China?
I think the Government message is muddled and confused like much of its thinking. The fact that the Prime Minister, Health Secretary and Chief Medical Officer got the virus at the same time after a News Conference in a small room at Downing Street packed with Journalists expresses this point.
We are currently still talking about shortages in PPE, Testing and Masks. We should T this stage be in a position where the medical people are getting on with it and the Government is focussing it’s efforts on getting the Country back to work.
I have doubts about the lockdown holding after 3 weeks. People will be running out of money next week and theGovernment will be faced with a Public Order crisis imho at least
We have crops in the field and businesses going bust that will result in people being out of work. We will be in recession and not have enough people spending money to get us out of it cue more social unrest.
Then we will have another wave of virus brought in from overseas and so the story continues
Time for foresight not hindsight
I think the Government message is muddled and confused like much of its thinking. The fact that the Prime Minister, Health Secretary and Chief Medical Officer got the virus at the same time after a News Conference in a small room at Downing Street packed with Journalists expresses this point.
We are currently still talking about shortages in PPE, Testing and Masks. We should T this stage be in a position where the medical people are getting on with it and the Government is focussing it’s efforts on getting the Country back to work.
I have doubts about the lockdown holding after 3 weeks. People will be running out of money next week and theGovernment will be faced with a Public Order crisis imho at least
We have crops in the field and businesses going bust that will result in people being out of work. We will be in recession and not have enough people spending money to get us out of it cue more social unrest.
Then we will have another wave of virus brought in from overseas and so the story continues
Time for foresight not hindsight
WD - it could have been done in stages with compromises and some flexibility. As you say the inbound flights makes no sense without quarantine.
No need to say ‘1 form of exercise a day.’ How can taking 2 walks a day spread the infection?
Ok, some anecdotes:
Took a neighbour to A & E. 6pm. Empty. Straight in.
Elderly relative went to the same hospital yesterday for a clinic. Empty. Straight in. She used the word ‘eery’.
Friend playing football with his 2 sons Thursday afternoon in a quiet park. 2 Plod turn up and say only half an hour max. When challenged where does it say 30 minutes, they couldn’t answer.
No need to say ‘1 form of exercise a day.’ How can taking 2 walks a day spread the infection?
Ok, some anecdotes:
Took a neighbour to A & E. 6pm. Empty. Straight in.
Elderly relative went to the same hospital yesterday for a clinic. Empty. Straight in. She used the word ‘eery’.
Friend playing football with his 2 sons Thursday afternoon in a quiet park. 2 Plod turn up and say only half an hour max. When challenged where does it say 30 minutes, they couldn’t answer.
Absolutely
The thinking from the top has been muddled, poor and badly explained so people are confused.
I pu5 my hands up. I was one of those who planned to go to a pub and drink on Saturday 14th March but common sense prevailed and I did not. What did annoy me though was that I had a flight booked to Rome on Friday 13th March then to Barcelona on the15th then home on the 16th. The flight from Rome to Barcelona was cancelled and I got a refund but the other two flights allegedly went without me.
The Government should have stopped all of those flights well in advance. We have seen the damage done by Football in Bergamo.
To tell people they should not be going to pubs but allowing flights to continue sent the wrong message. Well done to the British public for doing g the right thing.
Some people are coming across as callous for calling for business as usual but after this health crisis will come a serious financial crisis incorporating business, unemployment, a recession, food in the fields rotting then shortages of food in the autumn and public order problems.
I fear the Government is continually too far behind the problem to deal with it effectively
Again I say The Prime Minister, Health Minister and Chief Medical Officer going down with the Virus at the same time is symptomatic of the dysfunction of the Government.
The thinking from the top has been muddled, poor and badly explained so people are confused.
I pu5 my hands up. I was one of those who planned to go to a pub and drink on Saturday 14th March but common sense prevailed and I did not. What did annoy me though was that I had a flight booked to Rome on Friday 13th March then to Barcelona on the15th then home on the 16th. The flight from Rome to Barcelona was cancelled and I got a refund but the other two flights allegedly went without me.
The Government should have stopped all of those flights well in advance. We have seen the damage done by Football in Bergamo.
To tell people they should not be going to pubs but allowing flights to continue sent the wrong message. Well done to the British public for doing g the right thing.
Some people are coming across as callous for calling for business as usual but after this health crisis will come a serious financial crisis incorporating business, unemployment, a recession, food in the fields rotting then shortages of food in the autumn and public order problems.
I fear the Government is continually too far behind the problem to deal with it effectively
Again I say The Prime Minister, Health Minister and Chief Medical Officer going down with the Virus at the same time is symptomatic of the dysfunction of the Government.
Some are talking 6 MONTHS ! The cure is worse than the disease
The danger isn't food rotting in fields. Everything bar some niche fruit and veg that would normally be imported if it weren't for cheap foreign labour is harvested mechanically anyway.
The problem is not knowing what the situation is going to be at harvest time in terms of the economy and how shops will be operating. Is it worth planting potatoes now, when there is no way of knowing whether supermarkets are going to operating as normal next winter? And whether export markets will have re-opened? The potatoes won't rot, with harvesting involving just two men to drive and run the harvester. But can they be sold?
The problem is not knowing what the situation is going to be at harvest time in terms of the economy and how shops will be operating. Is it worth planting potatoes now, when there is no way of knowing whether supermarkets are going to operating as normal next winter? And whether export markets will have re-opened? The potatoes won't rot, with harvesting involving just two men to drive and run the harvester. But can they be sold?
Tomorrow's the first big test, up to 21°c, no chance millions of young people especially will be staying indoors. Would be daft to keep it going 6 months, when the summer's here they would not have the resources to stop and fine everyone.
Agreed the problem is not knowing. The country needs leadership and is being sold short. The Furlough programme had an incredible effect of calming millions of people. We do not know if it will work yet but is a great example of what needs to be done. I hope Little Rishi can leave others to administrate that scheme and get on with reassuring business, farmers and people worried about their jobs. He has made a great start.
liverpool fc joining in on the furlough scheme.surely somewhere there has to be a legal way to stop this kind of abuse
you can talk liverpool but I am talking belarus and russia plus a fair few strange friendly soccer ball games while the rest seem to be obsessed by death numbers
Any great ideas instead of carping from the sidelines ? It does appear to be a worldwide pandemic that hasn't any easy answers,read earlier that even Ecuador has had fatalities. Sceptical of the figures in the low figures unless lockdown has been heavily applied at the expense of freedoms.How on earth is this virus getting to such areas in the world so virulently ?
spivs keeping heathrow open and the chinese military thinking where to go next with this tactic
self employed builders must be laughing all the way to the bank
cancel all your jobs for now
claim your free handout
get all those jobs back when things start up again and also extra new jobs that come along - a full workload for months ahead
spend your free time doing alterations improvements to the house in the meantime which will be worth hundreds
they're on a treble earner
know wonder i've seen so many builders at work in domestic houses this week - 'it's the ultimate working from home'
cancel all your jobs for now
claim your free handout
get all those jobs back when things start up again and also extra new jobs that come along - a full workload for months ahead
spend your free time doing alterations improvements to the house in the meantime which will be worth hundreds
they're on a treble earner
know wonder i've seen so many builders at work in domestic houses this week - 'it's the ultimate working from home'
It ain't going to fix it in 3 weeks
They will extend by another 3 weeks and then another 3 weeks and then another 3 weeks etc
They might start football back up behind closed doors in June, but you can forget thinking about going back to support your teams for at least 18 months
They will extend by another 3 weeks and then another 3 weeks and then another 3 weeks etc
They might start football back up behind closed doors in June, but you can forget thinking about going back to support your teams for at least 18 months
they should put people EVERYONE on a basic wage - fk the soccerball daisy chain as well
loathsome shower
loathsome shower
Is the death rate really only bad in Western Europe, USA and UK? Not withstanding the fact that these countries have big populations, dynamic economies and a lot of international travel. I don't understand why there are so many countries (some with huge populations) that don't seem to have anywhere near the number victims that we and our neighbours have. Is it down to under-reporting/ lying about death stats, unsophisticated testing or general poverty and poor administration? Or are there parts of the World that this virus doesn't reach?
Good to see the death rates falling in Italy and Spain, though.
Good to see the death rates falling in Italy and Spain, though.
I am not sure how many people are with it at all - a few are on here but I pointed out weeks ago that this would trash the economy and very few at the time realised it
if you have no money you can't spend any so no shop/airline/holiday company/bank etc etc receives anything
very simple
if you have no money you can't spend any so no shop/airline/holiday company/bank etc etc receives anything
very simple
despond ...i'm no expert on this ,but i think it's because we have more people that can die ...those that could have died in India and Africa with this have died long ago ...plus those countries will be last in line as the virus has to 'travel' there .... likewise islands in the pacific will be the very last in line
besides any way ,will they register every death in India ? ... half the population there probably not on any census 
they were chucking rocks at the healthcare workers in India yesterday
you make some fair points coachbuster, but there is still a lot that doesn't add up. Why is the death per population stat 10 time worse in Spain than Portugal for instance?
portugal moved quickly and spain didnt, the following tables show who moved when
https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-coronavirus-lockdown-measures-compar...
https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-coronavirus-lockdown-measures-compar...
rather quickly to a lock down once they decided on that course of action.
we were slower to react than Spain and no faster than Italy. Only France are going to come out of this worse than us, looking at that.
Only France are going to come out of this worse than us, looking at that.
yeah Portugal deffo saw it coming ...they were putting up roadblocks i remember ...no love lost between those two
the figures all round are blurred and confusing
how many people with no underlying health problems have died from the virus? and how many of them had a comprehensive post mortem to rule out any unknown health problems.
how many people with underlying health problems died WITH the virus and in no way OF the virus
how many people with underlying health problems died OF the virus directly and how much longer was each patient expected to live given their current health conditions?
Then there's those that work for in the health profession who have died after contracting the virus? how many of them were wearing adequate protection ? seems to me many were not and have been overdosed?
It seems to me given what we do know there is practically no reason why people with no underlying health issues should be isolating and those who are in the vulnerable groups are the only one's that should, crashing the economy and creating more problems with these measures such as people's mental health, stress and worry of getting any kind of income in.... has all been a very bad idea, it's like in this social media and mass media age they felt under pressure to follow other countries and enter lockdown.
how many people with no underlying health problems have died from the virus? and how many of them had a comprehensive post mortem to rule out any unknown health problems.
how many people with underlying health problems died WITH the virus and in no way OF the virus
how many people with underlying health problems died OF the virus directly and how much longer was each patient expected to live given their current health conditions?
Then there's those that work for in the health profession who have died after contracting the virus? how many of them were wearing adequate protection ? seems to me many were not and have been overdosed?
It seems to me given what we do know there is practically no reason why people with no underlying health issues should be isolating and those who are in the vulnerable groups are the only one's that should, crashing the economy and creating more problems with these measures such as people's mental health, stress and worry of getting any kind of income in.... has all been a very bad idea, it's like in this social media and mass media age they felt under pressure to follow other countries and enter lockdown.
yep, the virus will be listed on the d/c even if they had a week to live
Yes, it's very complicated and confusing, but the stats don't look good for us, and even worse for France. I hope I'm wrong, but after the millenials and hipsters (and some others) have stuck 2 fingers up to the lockdown, when the sun comes out, I fear we may be heading for much stricter restrictions.
France is a funny one , they have quite a rebellious streak in them ...that French police chief got a bit of a telling off , saying something along the lines of .. the ones that stuck two fingers up are now in the hospitals ...reap what you sow etc
nurses also getting attacked /mugged by gangs in part of that city
https://londonlovesbusiness.com/paris-medics-hire-bodyguards-after-a-spike-i...
PARIS: drug dealers controlling the neighborhood
PARIS: drug dealers controlling the neighborhood
"the ones that stuck two fingers up are now in the hospitals ...reap what you sow etc"
But is that really the case? How many that were at the footie, Cheltenham, the pub until closed have got it compared to those who didn't? Like the ad for insurance where the bloke is being grilled about his locks meeting a BS standard, nobody knows.
What happens if we lock down for 6 months so that in month 6 noone dies and no new cases emerge (just suppose)-then we all go back to normal and someone flies in from Peru with the virus. Surely it will spread like wildfire. So absent a vaccine anytime soon , herd immunity looks the one answer. In the long run do the same number die but more spread out so you don't have bodies stacked up but instead a constant flow?
But is that really the case? How many that were at the footie, Cheltenham, the pub until closed have got it compared to those who didn't? Like the ad for insurance where the bloke is being grilled about his locks meeting a BS standard, nobody knows.
What happens if we lock down for 6 months so that in month 6 noone dies and no new cases emerge (just suppose)-then we all go back to normal and someone flies in from Peru with the virus. Surely it will spread like wildfire. So absent a vaccine anytime soon , herd immunity looks the one answer. In the long run do the same number die but more spread out so you don't have bodies stacked up but instead a constant flow?
saw pictures from richmond and hove yesterday wtf is wrong with people ???
can see london and south east remaining in lockdown longer than rest of country .
can see london and south east remaining in lockdown longer than rest of country .
Morpteh. Like me they don't believe this strategy is correct. And noone knows whether it is.
i'm not sure it is, but if they are taking scientific advice then assume its the more likely better way . Problem is if people continue to ignore it more stringent conditions will come into play( and stiffer penalties ) and make life worse for everyone. its for the greater good.
Perhaps there should be a self exclusion register, you forfeit all rights to treatment from NHS for any flu/virus related symptoms, but are free to go about you daily life, could be issued with documentation to show the plod if you get stopped .
I have to disagree with you boys on this.
I think it is good for people to get out into the parks sand get some fresh air. The parks are big enough to observe social distancing. The stupidity shown was not just by the public but by the Authorities in allowing food kiosks to open in the park. This was compounded by idiots queueing side by side to get refreshments rather than bringing their own.
The messages are mixed from the Government as someone pointed out they are saying no need to wear masks but if not why then cannot people go outside to get fresh air?
I do concede idiots will congregate and have parties but thousands of people are still flying into the country everyday in small tin cans squashed in like sardines and with the air they breathe in and out being recirculating including drops of moisture that could contain the virus. They are not tested at entry and not quarantined or made to self isolate
Why is this allowed?
I think it is good for people to get out into the parks sand get some fresh air. The parks are big enough to observe social distancing. The stupidity shown was not just by the public but by the Authorities in allowing food kiosks to open in the park. This was compounded by idiots queueing side by side to get refreshments rather than bringing their own.
The messages are mixed from the Government as someone pointed out they are saying no need to wear masks but if not why then cannot people go outside to get fresh air?
I do concede idiots will congregate and have parties but thousands of people are still flying into the country everyday in small tin cans squashed in like sardines and with the air they breathe in and out being recirculating including drops of moisture that could contain the virus. They are not tested at entry and not quarantined or made to self isolate
Why is this allowed?
Apr 5, 2020 -- 10:19AM, potlis wrote:
Perhaps there should be a self exclusion register, you forfeit all rights to treatment from NHS for any flu/virus related symptoms, but are free to go about you daily life, could be issued with documentation to show the plod if you get stopped .
... and if you pass it on to other folks you can be tried for attempted murder.
Apr 5, 2020 -- 10:22AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:
I have to disagree with you boys on this.I think it is good for people to get out into the parks sand get some fresh air. The parks are big enough to observe social distancing. The stupidity shown was not just by the public but by the Authorities in allowing food kiosks to open in the park. This was compounded by idiots queueing side by side to get refreshments rather than bringing their own.The messages are mixed from the Government as someone pointed out they are saying no need to wear masks but if not why then cannot people go outside to get fresh air?I do concede idiots will congregate and have parties but thousands of people are still flying into the country everyday in small tin cans squashed in like sardines and with the air they breathe in and out being recirculating including drops of moisture that could contain the virus. They are not tested at entry and not quarantined or made to self isolateWhy is this allowed?
the planes flying in is the 8th wonder of the world, how this is allowed, god only knows
One reason people remain healthy in warmer weather is less time spent indoors. Not sharing the same air, getting more exercise, no artificial heat. Vit d and mentally happier. Lighter mornings and evenings. Hope, confidence etc.
If inside in summer, windows open.
I don’t believe walking close to others in fresh air can be contagious. If it is, this is a plague not a nasty virus.
If inside in summer, windows open.
I don’t believe walking close to others in fresh air can be contagious. If it is, this is a plague not a nasty virus.
Absolutely correct but you can still observe social distancing with members of a different household while on a walk. Very little has been mentioned about food and fresh air by “ the experts “ . Imho fruit and vegetables and plenty of fresh air will boost the immune system to fight. Many people may have had the virus and not even known.
Too true WD. The advice is effectively ‘stay glued to your tv and iPad. Get on each others’ nerves, drink and eat yourselves into a stupor’.
What a wonderful opportunity this is to enjoy these green pastures. Yet govt want us cooped up like fat hens.
What a wonderful opportunity this is to enjoy these green pastures. Yet govt want us cooped up like fat hens.
..". and if you pass it on to other folks you can be tried for attempted murder"
How ? When you will still be hiding under you blanket.
How ? When you will still be hiding under you blanket.
'"Life is not about waiting for the storm to pass, it's about learning to dance in the rain"
Albert Camus.
Albert Camus.
" in the midst of winter I found that there was within me an inviincible summer"
I think there are two things the Government is worried about and that is the possible collapse of the NHS and public order disturbances
Unfortunately many people will not observe social distancing. I still don’t see many people wearing gloves or masks in the supermarket. I think people will start mingling by the end of next week.
The question should be asked about what is the Exit Strategy but more pertinently what is the point of the lockdown with planes coming in?
Unfortunately many people will not observe social distancing. I still don’t see many people wearing gloves or masks in the supermarket. I think people will start mingling by the end of next week.
The question should be asked about what is the Exit Strategy but more pertinently what is the point of the lockdown with planes coming in?
I think Netherlands going along with the herd immunity ... not sure if it's going well as now they are now shipping patients to Germany and in a bit of a panic
This weeks going to teach the idiots a lesson,600 deaths a day will wake them up or get arrested simples..
fine the fookers and pay the money directly to the front line nurses
Just been out for some excercise, thousands enjoying the sunshine along the seafront.
In 9 months a new babys name will appear, Covid, it will be more popular than Muhammed is over East Ham.
The media got to love them, story of people sunbathing after months of no heat keeping to the guidelines naturally all over the papers,but nothing on billions under house arrest world-wide--morons.
No Angoose, all the licky, licky joints shut unfortunatly.
The beachfront patrol are moving on anyone who has the nerve to sit on a bench for five minutes, folks just sit down again afterwards, did see a jobsworth approach a young women to advise her not to let her toddler play in the sand.
The beachfront patrol are moving on anyone who has the nerve to sit on a bench for five minutes, folks just sit down again afterwards, did see a jobsworth approach a young women to advise her not to let her toddler play in the sand.
bit too breezy at Clacton or Felixstowe .... need to be on the south coast i reckon terry
Two police vans and one beach patrol keeping themselves busy in my ends
Police shift pattern traditionally 2pm to 10pm
10pm to 6am and 6am till2pm
Police shift pattern traditionally 2pm to 10pm
10pm to 6am and 6am till2pm
I was walking down a country lane and heard one person outside his house saying to two people passing by in conversation..."I've lived here 30 years and I've never seen so many people walking by"
I too wonder how what the exit strategy is ?
How will they decide for example it is safe for the monarch in her 90's to meet dignitaries and the public ?
How will they decide for example it is safe for the monarch in her 90's to meet dignitaries and the public ?
They could start by opening garden centres and the tip!
At least let people do some gardening or diy to pass the boredom. Social distancing* can be observed. Enforce people to wear masks and gloves to gain admission.
At least let people do some gardening or diy to pass the boredom. Social distancing* can be observed. Enforce people to wear masks and gloves to gain admission.
whispering ...had wondered myself why that wasn't possible ... with the distancing of course
garden centres could be monitored the way supermarkets are
millions of plants going to waste
garden centres could be monitored the way supermarkets are
millions of plants going to waste
Looking at the map where the hotspots are. If I was in Somerset and west to Cornwall I’d be pretty miffed at the lockdown.
The hotspots are often close to airports and other transport hubs.
The hotspots are often close to airports and other transport hubs.
Coronavirus: Public urged to follow 'mission-critical' rules https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52172035
The locals in Cornwall are already up in arms about the second home crew coming with all their germs.
Most social media virals start with the cool kids in the conurbations, or travel well across the pond. After a few weeks, your Auntie Heather in the lake district has seen most of em and is sending them back you.
Most social media virals start with the cool kids in the conurbations, or travel well across the pond. After a few weeks, your Auntie Heather in the lake district has seen most of em and is sending them back you.
Injera05 Apr 20 18:10Joined: 04 Jan 03 | Topic/replies: 17,243 | Blogger: Injera's blog
Looking at the map where the hotspots are. If I was in Somerset and west to Cornwall I’d be pretty miffed at the lockdown.
I am. We are.
But anything other than the same terms as the rest of the country would lead to the rest of the country converging on us, and ruining it.
When the three weeks is up on Good Friday, we need either a maximum 7-day extension or the current supermarket system being extended to other businesses.
What must not happen is an automatic further three-week extension under the current terms. If they do that, the population is just going to take matters into their own hands. The SNP have basically ensured that that would be the outcome with the way they've okayed Catherine Calderwood's behaviour.
Looking at the map where the hotspots are. If I was in Somerset and west to Cornwall I’d be pretty miffed at the lockdown.
I am. We are.
But anything other than the same terms as the rest of the country would lead to the rest of the country converging on us, and ruining it.
When the three weeks is up on Good Friday, we need either a maximum 7-day extension or the current supermarket system being extended to other businesses.
What must not happen is an automatic further three-week extension under the current terms. If they do that, the population is just going to take matters into their own hands. The SNP have basically ensured that that would be the outcome with the way they've okayed Catherine Calderwood's behaviour.
When the three weeks is up on Good Friday, we need either a maximum 7-day extension or the current supermarket system being extended to other businesses.
- pity that option hasn’t happened already. It’s working well with supermarkets.
- pity that option hasn’t happened already. It’s working well with supermarkets.
Totally agree. But a fortnight ago that wasn't necessarily foreseeable. Nothing wrong with going too far at first, as long as they change tack when the evidence is there to do so, as it is now.
The danger is that the whole population* can see the supermarkets model works, and could easily be extended, so there'll be real ructions if they ignore it on Friday.
* Except for people on Twitter, obviously.
The danger is that the whole population* can see the supermarkets model works, and could easily be extended, so there'll be real ructions if they ignore it on Friday.
* Except for people on Twitter, obviously.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52172035 comments
looks like the sunbathers are now the evil party ... cyclists and joggers getting angry
looks like the sunbathers are now the evil party ... cyclists and joggers getting angry
It's just being sensible about everything. Sunbathing in an open space with members of your own household is much less risky than exercising along a narrow path..... or boarding a plane....or working in a crowded warehouse so people can still order from ebay.....or allowing people to go to work on the tube, train or bus just because they can't work from home.
Of course, it has been picked on because it's a luxury rather than a necessity, but is unlikely to be at the heart of tackling the continued spread.
The general consensus in the medical world seems to be that the virus dissipates to harmless levels with sufficient ventilation. Although nobody really knows.
Of course, it has been picked on because it's a luxury rather than a necessity, but is unlikely to be at the heart of tackling the continued spread.
The general consensus in the medical world seems to be that the virus dissipates to harmless levels with sufficient ventilation. Although nobody really knows.
flat dwelling sunbathers getting a raw time ...
the joggers and cyclists looking down on the sunbathers quite literally
the joggers and cyclists looking down on the sunbathers quite literally
It just goes to show they haven’t really got a clue
They want to fine or arrest people for sun bathing or walking in the country and yet the people supposed to be leading our fight against the virus all got Covid and the man supposed to be in charge is in hospital.
I don’t trust them
I se Damian Lewis the actor and his wife Polly PeKy Blinder arranged meals for 6,000 medical staff in West London
Ron Dennis is aiming to provide 1 Million high nutrition meals for medical staff over the next few weeks
Brewers are making sanitizer
Other companies are making ventilators
Leaders should lead as long as the people show them how.
Neville and Giggs have given their hotel for health workers to stay for free. Abu Dhabi are making millions every month renting the Excell to the Government
The day of reckoning will come but it is not yet
They want to fine or arrest people for sun bathing or walking in the country and yet the people supposed to be leading our fight against the virus all got Covid and the man supposed to be in charge is in hospital.
I don’t trust them
I se Damian Lewis the actor and his wife Polly PeKy Blinder arranged meals for 6,000 medical staff in West London
Ron Dennis is aiming to provide 1 Million high nutrition meals for medical staff over the next few weeks
Brewers are making sanitizer
Other companies are making ventilators
Leaders should lead as long as the people show them how.
Neville and Giggs have given their hotel for health workers to stay for free. Abu Dhabi are making millions every month renting the Excell to the Government
The day of reckoning will come but it is not yet
Abu Dhabi never demanded rent for the Excel Centre. They were billing the government for running costs.
But they dropped that the same morning the story broke.
But they dropped that the same morning the story broke.
Just thought I'd mention it in case any lawyers were reading this.
Whisperingdeath vs the Emir of Abu Dhabi would be a one-sided contest imo.
Whisperingdeath vs the Emir of Abu Dhabi would be a one-sided contest imo.
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