56 more dead in UK today (21.03.2020) total now 233

If there was a hypothetical "perfect " lockdown (I.e. Zero contact with anybody else)

Then would expect maximum number of new infections to be after 5-7 days (symptoms show so are tested), & maximum number of new deaths 2 weeks or so later .

Of course things in Italy are a million miles away from being perfect. Who is being tested, there is still a small bit of social interaction, the hospitals are at/over capacity.

All a bit of a very serious mess. UK government are talking about 12 weeks to "turn the tide" . Not many good news stories yet.

No time for Simon Harris (Irish health honcho) but said this re sneaky pub openings "We will remember those who undermined the health and well-being of our people when it comes to renewing licences, and we will never forget them either"

Up ou dat boy,now your talking.

Angoose, just a thought. Basing your starting point on the first death is statistically probably dodgy as there is so much randomness as to when that would happen, as is the case with very small "samples". As it goes forward I'd probably readjust your starting point as to say when 10 deaths or 20 or 50 are hit, and maybe add additional columns adjusting for per-population (will be simple enough assuming that's in Excel!).

he shut the stable door after the horses have bolted.thats an old statement that needs thinking about.

I presume that regards Cheltenham Brassneck, i agree, though the meeting itself and Uk policy was a hindrance.

and a bigger problem is that Italy had their stable door shut.

Mar 21, 2020 -- 8:52PM, Just Checking wrote:

Angoose, just a thought. Basing your starting point on the first death is statistically probably dodgy as there is so much randomness as to when that would happen, as is the case with very small "samples". As it goes forward I'd probably readjust your starting point as to say when 10 deaths or 20 or 50 are hit, and maybe add additional columns adjusting for per-population (will be simple enough assuming that's in Excel!).

Gracias, will play around, spent a lot of time messing in excel over the years.

Mar 21, 2020 -- 8:40PM, Angoose wrote:

Mar 21, 2020 --  7:02PM, Cider wrote:Can't do anything about social media chumps but the mainstream media should be embargoed from producing and sharing images of queues and empty shelves.Disagree. It's the narrative that goes with it that needs greater consideration.If we need to shame people in to behaving more responsibly then lets do it.

It's not 'panic' buying it's logical buying. If your family might need two weeks' worth of supplies, then you want them in the house. The images considered news by some are not news at all, but serves to stoke up hysteria.

i am looking at the maths,PA,they look depressing.The horses are likely to do a lot of damage before they are caught

France has a disproportionate number of critical cases. Things could get really grim there next few days.

I suspect the UK critical number of just 20 is just not being updated :(

It's not 'panic' buying it's logical buying

In reality Cider, it's both

Yea angoose I'm sure there's a lot you could play around with. It's (in a very sad way) is an interesting thing to think about if you like playing with such things. I.e. is the growth %-per-day (at least in the early stages before it saturates) in a population dependent on the population size, or not, as long as that population is suffiently large? I'm wondering about that. I'm thinking in early stages no, but as time goes on the population size will matter at it'll start restricting it. I think I mentioned elsewhere the world population one so that's .. everything and maybe another baseline measurement you could add. Or "all Europe", presuming our health care sytems are generally better than say Africa.

Bad today,worse tomorrow,worse again the day after andso on, the radical step of world locking down for a while to try and contain til an effective vacine seems only solution to me.

Mar 21, 2020 -- 9:06PM, Aspro wrote:

It's not 'panic' buying it's logical buyingIn reality Cider, it's both

Arguably the exaggeration in the news leads to panic buying. There is certainly no upside to sensationalizing it.

fwiw I just did an Ocado shop to be delivered for my Mum on Friday, most lines were in stock. Even bog roll

It’s both logical to increase supplies but also illogical.

There seems no suggestion the supply chain will suffer. So why are we buying more? Must be the scary headlines. That fuels panic, which leads to shortages which leads to more buying...

As people are being told your whole household has potentially to stay inside for 2 weeks. So a rational person would want three weeks cover initially, and have a rolling two week 'stock'

I assume you mean online Cider? I ordered from Sainsbury's last Saturday for a delivery on Thursday (19th). Less than half my order was available on the day.

Yes, Ocado has no physical stores. The supplies are in the country and will settle down once the story moves on.

Mar 21, 2020 -- 9:18PM, Cider wrote:

fwiw I just did an Ocado shop to be delivered for my Mum on Friday, most lines were in stock. Even bog roll

You don't know what's in stock until your order is picked by an ocado shopper on the morning of delivery.

No, but the system knows what is in stock when you place the order. So that's the position now. I will review the basket before cut off to see if the position on anything has changed.

A good explanation given today buy some women from the retail trade at the daily briefing.
Likened the recent surge in buying to Christmas, but without the four months of supermarket pre planning.

Yhey are generally good and not many subs tbf, your wan across the road wants calpol,she can't get it,no bother,i will throw in more drink for myself.
I feel guilty i have an account with them,i hated supermarkets before this arrived though,sucked the life out of me going around them, i have every sympathy for the so called "panic buyers" they in the main trying to do the best for themselves and familes, the safety aspect though is shocking and i point the finger at the goverment for zero regulations in protecting staff and customers.

You do know there is a free way to get tested fast and for free?

Grab and snog a policeman?

Mar 21, 2020 -- 9:51PM, Just Checking wrote:

Grab and snog a policeman?

cough in a celebrities face and then follow their twitter update

The tests are only 70% accurate at present anyway, you can test negative and still be positive

As the weeks pass the tests will get more accurate and quicker and then you will stop the spreading that is going on now.

Before my current career I was a retail stock manager for 10 years. The systems can't cope because deliveries are sales based ordering, with a huge spike. Also, you can only fit a certain number of crates/pallets on a wagon, there are not spare wagons/drivers sitting around. Plus of course staff shortages in the network and in store, due to self isolating. Replenishing empty shelves is very easy though I'm confident they will be on top of it by Tuesday in most cases. Ocado will be OK now as they don't have the same distribution challenges.

I visited my local Tesco Extra for the first time in a few weeks today.
Carnage. Even the gluten free pasta has been wiped out.

Gluten free pasta, what's that like?
I've an open mind and I've tried the bread a few times .. it's just so crumbly and powdery :(

Cider all the supermarkets seem to be taking on loads of extra shelf stackers (1000s of them) on say 12 week contracts.

Today would be the worst day to visit a supermarket, stating the obvious. High demand through the week already and many people off work for the first time in the current week.

Seems a fair call Just Checking, with many alternative public places to eat shut down and kids home, adults working from home, there will be a sustained increase in demand when the craziness subsides.

Have a look at a documentary called is the response to coronavirus enough, from a month back.

I couldn't watch it all but skimmed some of the comments. Worrying.

Does nobody wear masks/eye wear in the UK?

I wear 3M N95 respirators when I go shopping and sunglasses

I think it will be a slight relief when they start to flatten the curves in Italy/Spain
Quite depressing to see the figures go up and up everyday

Mar 21, 2020 -- 10:07PM, Just Checking wrote:

Gluten free pasta, what's that like? I've an open mind and I've tried the bread a few times .. it's just so crumbly and powdery :(Cider all the supermarkets seem to be taking on loads of extra shelf stackers (1000s of them) on say 12 week contracts.

>Think I'd prefer to clear the graphite from roofs in Chernobyl

"Today would be the worst day to visit a supermarket, stating the obvious. High demand through the week already and many people off work for the first time in the current week."

Yea that was my thought. I've enough left in the fridge until Monday plus a modest emergency supply I don't want to dip into "in case".
I thought best wait and see if I can do a weeks shop on Monday or Tuesday earlier in the day. Late saturday afternoon you're just asking for disappointment. The shop I go to normally was mostly stripped LAST saturday and that was before it all went mental!

If Nature one day took a look at the planet and thought that the place was getting over populated and over polluted it would create something that skimmed off the elderly and the ill whilst largely protecting the young, freeing up space and resources for a stronger group left behind.

Whilst all this was happening the pollution situation would improve globally.

Clever really.

I've got two fridge freezers and a chest freezer.
I like to have them full to bursting anyway, so I should be good for 6 months at least.
I do consume 4/5000 calories per day so I need to have plenty of stock

I don’t eat pasta, but my wife requires to avoid gluten.
She is very fussy, but has found good gluten free pasta and bread.

you haven't seen my stock of 'big soup'   - got so many I have had to switch my new frey bentos pies to another cupboard or there might be a soup avalanche

what are you stocking?

got loads of cadburys hot chocolate

but only one bar of dairy milk

beer supplies still continuing

I think many of you are not taking this seriously

you will survive the virus and die from obesity

The total deaths in England rose by 53 as a 41-year-old is thought to be the youngest victim in Britain since the outbreak began. The total number of confirmed cases in the UK has hit 5,018.

All new victims in England had underlying health conditions and the eldest was 94.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8137869/Frankly-ashamed-NHS-boss-slams-panic-buyers.html

Schar wholemeal GF is my wifes poison Angoose, GF bread seems mandatory to toast to get away with it in my eyes.

Boris getting a bit better,he seems to be telling the truth tonight in that nhs could be overwhelmed.

Welcome that anyone self isolating w/o family and friends are guaranteed grocery deliveries.

Mar 21, 2020 -- 10:29PM, Just Checking wrote:

"Today would be the worst day to visit a supermarket, stating the obvious. High demand through the week already and many people off work for the first time in the current week."Yea that was my thought. I've enough left in the fridge until Monday plus a modest emergency supply I don't want to dip into "in case".I thought best wait and see if I can do a weeks shop on Monday or Tuesday earlier in the day. Late saturday afternoon you're just asking for disappointment. The shop I go to normally was mostly stripped LAST saturday and that was before it all went mental!

If you have access, your best bet is a branch that is restricted to six hours Sunday trading, and going early Monday morning. Sunday's are busy but with the shorter hours it's the smallest day for takings. Plus they have from 5pm to replenish stocks.

57 million people died in 2015, thats average of near 5 million per month,

In 2017, there were 56 million deaths globally; nearly half of these (49%) were people who were 70 years or older; 27% were between 50 and 69 years old; 14% were between 15 and 49; only 1% were older than 5 and younger than 14; and almost 10% were children under the age of 5.

i dont have a freezer and have only been to a supermarket once in the last week . to date it is noticeable that there is plenty of fresh veg , fruit, etc as obviously its not long term freeze stuff. also noticeable that the trolley fillers and shelf grabbers eat utter  rubbish . a great example is smoked salmon which the idiots think can only be eaten on christmas day so they leave it alone .

Inj you are wasting your time trying to give them some perspective

People wont see it for what it is, SKY news has beaten you to them and they are under the spell now

Some girl claims she suffers from hayfever and she's been told to self isolate for 7 days everytime the symptoms come on

She said she's going to be self isolating through summer The madness is going to last a while

Because they "can't be sure if its coronavirus"

As for the one's who are playing along with it for agenda, scaremongering, financial gain etc (angoose, casemoney) needn't bother replying to my comments because their blocked

Gone and blocked the lot of them

Tree pollen is really kicking up now, esp on windy days, so anyone who suffers from this will be self isolating very soon

Pathetic

Sont..please watch "Contagion" on the BBC i player.I was a bit like you until i saw it..truly frightening.

Oh great more MSM propaganda

Watched the first 30 seconds and packed up straight away

"I am carrying a lethal disease"

That's enough of that s****

They've told you within 45 seconds its a load of b0llocks

Mar 21, 2020 -- 11:33PM, twizzle22 wrote:

The contents of this post have been hidden for this blocked user.               

[Manage blocked users]

Oh you're blocked for talking absolute hogwash

A TV propaganda show enough to convince you ffs

You sound deranged, either that or an overdose of Vodka.

Sont,you can't get people to put plastic to get oxygen over their heads in Italy (and elsewhere) at maybe say 50 times the norm,yep i heard the flu numbers people spouting and loads of people die all the time arguments on here, this is different though.
Very real,practise social distancing,your imo misinformation(as in others saying it is flu) is dangerous,be careful for other people at least.

|No   gazo   - in fact I need to put on a bit  - amazing really when I used to struggle with weight - maybe 1 to 1 1/2 stone over

but no more !!!

Anyone violating the curfew, which severely restricts movement beyond emergency and essential services, can be jailed up to a year, the army said.

coming soon.  very soon hopefully, best way to stop this. 

close the borders - no more flights coming into uk airports, esp from spain (spain ffs, still landing this evening, welcome to the uk amigos !)

good luck with that

we have let in millions   and how many illegally and you think anyone will stop it?

think someones going to have to stop it.  asap.  how can you contain it when 100,000 people are flying into heathrow every fkng day ?

Mar 22, 2020 -- 12:16AM, hulk23 wrote:

Anyone violating the curfew, which severely restricts movement beyond emergency and essential services, can be jailed up to a year, the army said.coming soon.  very soon hopefully, best way to stop this.  close the borders - no more flights coming into uk airports, esp from spain (spain ffs, still landing this evening, welcome to the uk amigos !)

Incredible, it's as if the government wishes us all to die.

most of you one here couldn't afford an airplane ticket  but you could take a bus down to a terminal and watch the daily throughput

Not sure PP about that,last windows closing for citizens to get repatriated to home countries if they wish,that window will soon slam shut.

If we are still flying to countries like Italy ( until very recently) and Spain (now) where it looks like they have lost control of the situation, what can we be expecting?

We need to close everything down now. No one gets in, no one gets out, planes, ferries, the lot. We need to lockdown, get the army on the streets if necessary and stop people travelling up and down the UK spreading the virus.

^^ agreed.  should have happened by now.  nobody gets in, if anyone wants out they can go, on the understanding they won't be coming back ..

Cork has the second-highest number of coronavirus cases in Ireland

Flights from Cork to the UK later today (Sunday) 

EDINBURGH    AER LINGUS    EI3806    22 Mar 06:40   
BIRMINGHAM    AER LINGUS    EI3700    22 Mar 06:45   
MANCHESTER    AER LINGUS    EI3720    22 Mar 07:00   
LONDON - HEATHROW    AER LINGUS    EI710    22 Mar 07:30
BRISTOL    AER LINGUS    EI3842    22 Mar 11:05   
LONDON - HEATHROW    AER LINGUS    EI712    22 Mar 11:50   
LONDON - GATWICK    RYANAIR    FR9852    22 Mar 14:45   
BIRMINGHAM    AER LINGUS    EI3708    22 Mar 14:50   
MANCHESTER    AER LINGUS    EI3726    22 Mar 14:50   
GLASGOW    AER LINGUS    EI3832    22 Mar 15:05   
LONDON - HEATHROW    AER LINGUS    EI722    22 Mar 16:00
LONDON - STANSTED    RYANAIR    FR906    22 Mar 18:25   
MANCHESTER    AER LINGUS    EI3728    22 Mar 18:55   
EDINBURGH    AER LINGUS    EI3808    22 Mar 19:10   
LONDON - LUTON    RYANAIR    FR7681    22 Mar 19:35   
LONDON - HEATHROW    AER LINGUS    EI724    22 Mar 20:00   
LIVERPOOL    RYANAIR    FR9896    22 Mar 20:05

Seriously ??

Flights from China and Italy should have been stopped immediately. Many on here said it. 

We have our friend the Channel that has saved us many times. Should have been easier for us to slow the spread of this thing.

Agree with flights to China/Italy should have been stopped earlier,Hulk the Irish goverment are warning its citizens you will find it v difficult to get back to Ireland,it was supposed to stop flights last Thursday. 3/4 flights a day on Stansted-Cork route a day usually,now 1.
The problem of citizens being displaced will be a major one.

A very crude comparison, but take a look at the day by day increase in recorded deaths in Italy and the UK starting at the date of the first recorded death

I'll post the same comparator on April 3

Italy yesterday had 42,681 recorded active cases, the UK had 4,692.

UK's totals need shifting up one line, because then they almost perfectly match Italy. Scary. And we've a worse government strategy than them too.

Yes, I'll maybe even shift it to use a cumulative total of ten to be the starting point.

O yeah 33 of course

That's an interesting comparator angus, thanks.
Yup, defo shift a line up for easier reading.

48 more today :(

Total 281 :(

Boris will announce a proper lockdown in a moment I would have thought.

All a sick game unfortuntly

Mar 22, 2020 -- 6:08PM, InsiderTrader wrote:

Boris will announce a proper lockdown in a moment I would have thought.

Reckon he's going to stick to doing it by instalments.

shame people you see selfish s0ds

My uncle had a bad fall. Hospitalised. Got pneumonia. Died...What was on the death certificate.?

The exponential doubling rate on those is about 4 days. .. Which is broadly in line with positive results, which would lead to say 36 million TESTED positive cases worldwide in a month, and testing vs actual has estimated to be out by a factor of 10 (i.e. 360 million+ actual cases)

Interesting times.

why is the hack at the BJ press conference stating parks in Ireland have closed. They have not.

Trying to Sh1t the life out of anyone with Kids racing ,is why

Flights From Coronavirus Epicentres China, Iran, Italy STILL Landing In UK


.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/22/flights-from-coronavirus-epicentres-china-iran-italy-still-landing-in-uk/

uk 54

Total now 335. :(

Mar 22, 2020 -- 7:08PM, bigmo wrote:

Flights From Coronavirus Epicentres China, Iran, Italy STILL Landing In UK.https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/22/flights-from-coronavirus-epicentres-china-iran-italy-still-landing-in-uk/

this is madness

There are nearly 6,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, but experts say the true number is more than 300,000 because the Government is only testing people hospitalised by the disease.

For every death there are thought to be roughly 1,000 more cases of the virus. 


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8141779/Boris-Johnson-faces-Cabinet-revolt-unless-imposes-coronavirus-lockdown.html

Is this 1k per death valid?? If it is the mortality rate is 0.1%

sounds about right to me injera

most  will be amongst the under 10s i reckon coughing and snoozing ,hands everywhere  ...but will bounce off them like a rubber ball so will barely be noticable  ...the old will be least likely i'd say  but more prone to death

Ages of today’s dead 47-103. All with underlying health conditions.

Everyone has an underlying health condition.

Soldiers drafted in to help Spain tackle the coronavirus pandemic by disinfecting and running residential homes have found a number of elderly people abandoned and dead in their beds, according to the country’s defence minister.

News of the grim discoveries came as Spain experienced a further rise in the number of coronavirus deaths and cases, and as health authorities set about distributing almost 650,000 rapid testing kits.

On Monday, the country’s defence minister, Margarita Robles, said that members of the specialist Military Emergencies Unit had found the corpses as they carried out their duties.

“During some of its visits, the army has seen some totally abandoned elderly people – even some who were dead in their beds,” Robles told the Ana Rosa TV programme.

Robles said such inhumane treatment would not be tolerated and that anyone ignoring their responsibilities would be prosecuted.

6 deaths in Ireland(RIP) 3 NO underlying health conditions.

ireland has one of the lowest death rates from confirmed cases ( 0.04% )  just to throw that out there

worldwide there have been more deaths as a result of the flu this month than from coronavirus

the death rate from the flu in the USA is 0.1%.  their death rate from coronavirus is... 0.1%   but i bet you CNN is wall to wall with coronavirus

mountains out of molehills springs to mind

Mar 23, 2020 -- 8:18PM, Angoose wrote:

Everyone has an underlying health condition.

yeh a very high % of all UK citizens have either diabetes, high blood pressure or heart issues etc.
I would say the % of people over 40 who have zero underlying conditions would be less than 5%