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jollyswagman
17 Mar 20 10:14
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Date Joined: 04 Jul 15
| Topic/replies: 9,882 | Blogger: jollyswagman's blog
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

this is the model the uk government is using, the numbers are absolutely mind blowing. they had assumed the same number of hospitalisations as with pneumonia  but data from london and italy showed twice as many victims needed hospital treatment. this meant that if they had not changed strategy 250,000 people would die.

Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency
surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the
most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case
isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general
ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical
care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we
predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates
of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning
estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty
around the limits of hospital surge capacity.
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The
social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be
profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier
stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.



yesterday we completely changed strategy and will be following the chinese in trying to suppress covid 19 for 12-18 months in the hope that a vaccine is developed.  this policy is also a risk, there is no easy answer.

'we were expecting herd immunity to build. we now realise its not possible to cope with that.' the w h o and many other epidemioligists pointed this out some time ago.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths
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Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 10:25 AM GMT
could have saved 20 sheets of A4 paper opened their eyes ,looked at Italy and fooooking listened,instead of playing after drinks party science games with the loooony right wing nut jobs in no 10,
heard that dr who,s hadvirus on tv again last night saying they don't have to test threy,ll just monitoir symptons to find hotspots,he,s a few questions from a thicko
how do you no its not just seasonal flu
how do you no children arnt spreading it and noit showing signs
idris elba has it positive not a single sign,

I used to believe everything,trusted what the school crossing lady told me,for the last 20 years ive had a new rule no matter how many letters they have after their name always believe till they prove otherwise that they are thicker than yourself
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 10:32 AM GMT
lets be honest weve had 3 months to learn off china,hongkong, japan,tiawan ,Singapore,italy, etc etc we didn't need any modelling,blue sky thinking we just had to follow learn of others,not worry what might come back next year,year after, the nhs situation regards staffing,equipment, etc is 99% set in stone we are where we are no amount of modelling is going to change 10 years of tory cuts in 6 weeks
Report CLYDEBANK29 March 17, 2020 10:38 AM GMT
It beggars belief.  It was fecking obvious all along.
Report lapsy pa March 17, 2020 10:39 AM GMT
Mind boggling,good post JS.
Report CLYDEBANK29 March 17, 2020 10:40 AM GMT
One of the worst cases of groupthink you'll ever see.
Report thegiggilo March 17, 2020 10:44 AM GMT
All predicted over the last two years,disaster capitalism underfunding everything it was only a matter of time economists have been predicting it for two years,the virus has now thoroughy exposed how inadequate everything is in the country..Anyone with half a braincell new it was coming,just needed a trigger..Amazed so many people have kept falling for it,now seeing the full escalation..
Report jollyswagman March 17, 2020 10:46 AM GMT
you dont need a ph d you just need common sense but our leaders and their advisers have none.

testing, isolation and contact tracing - china, south korea, taiwan, singapore and hong kong but not the uk.

let's hope they have the army on standby they may be needed around here. i know some of you aint that keen on us southerners but we are in the firing line.

the frightening curve is the very small one right at the bottom that aint changing, that's the number of icu beds. we are fecked, not only do we not have enough ventilators the poor nhs arent getting the correct protective equipment. to stop the nhs being over run we had to stop it getting hold, we had the containment stage which involved doing nothing.

i follow chris martenson on you tube, he's a financial type but has a phd in a related field and he was on this late january. i only paid attention late february but he kept talking about exponential growth, he said it wasnt really his phd just his undersatnding of exponential growth that had him worried. and this is what overwhelms the system if this thing is not dealt with. about 9.30pm most nights he will have an update.
Report Angoose March 17, 2020 10:55 AM GMT
Common sense is not so common Sad
Report CLYDEBANK29 March 17, 2020 10:59 AM GMT
Rory Stewart was the only politician who had the common sense and drive to try and push us in the right direction.
Report CLYDEBANK29 March 17, 2020 11:00 AM GMT
of course he was kicked out of the Tory Party Sad
Report Dr Crippen March 17, 2020 11:12 AM GMT
Almost 170,000 people have been counted as infected and at least 6,509 have died from confirmed coronavirus cases, according to a Reuters tally that counted patients in 156 countries.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/03/16/coronavirus-death-toll-passes-6500-worldwide/#1e850506a542

The population of the UK is a fraction of the world's population. So with in comparison to the numbers of dead abroad, the prediction of 250,000 dead in the UK looks a tad hysterical to say the least.

Or more accurately in view of the figures so far - ludicrous.
Report KeMoH March 17, 2020 11:13 AM GMT
Rory Stewart is a europhile, the further away from office he is... the better.
Report lapsy pa March 17, 2020 11:16 AM GMT
Dr you called me thick, you come back to me next monday, the monday after that and another few mondays following,you will get your wake up call then,
Report peckerdunne March 17, 2020 11:16 AM GMT
europhile Laugh

brexit is history Laugh
Report politicspunter March 17, 2020 11:16 AM GMT
Rory Stewart would have been a brilliant Prime Minister, he is different class from the current buffoon and I am a Conservative leave voter.
Report jollyswagman March 17, 2020 11:18 AM GMT
crippen tell the scientists and government who have now changed policy. if this thing isnt controlled it grows exponentially, that is what would lead to the high numbers of deaths. see lombardy, they have field hospitals. there is still some hope, another region in italy locked down early and they arent being wiped out. the trouble with the lock down strategy is that it has to be for a while and eventually people will get bored so a later spike seems inevitable.

south korea tests, isolates and contact traces but didnt have a massive lock down. i think our actual case numbers means we are past being able to do exactly as they did.
Report KeMoH March 17, 2020 11:18 AM GMT
Rory Stewart needs to be locked up with the likes of Ken Clarke, Cleggy and "Call Me Dave". The left wing loons are no better than Blair et al who wanted us to join the Euro
Report politicspunter March 17, 2020 11:19 AM GMT

Mar 17, 2020 -- 6:18AM, KeMoH wrote:


Rory Stewart needs to be locked up with the likes of Ken Clarke, Cleggy and "Call Me Dave". The left wing loons are no better than Blair et al who wanted us to join the Euro


You are clearly obsessed by the EU.

Report jollyswagman March 17, 2020 11:21 AM GMT
this isnt an eu thread please stay on topic. tia Happy
Report KeMoH March 17, 2020 11:21 AM GMT
None more so than your unhealthy obsession with pro-EU politicians who would have sold this country and it's people down the river. So long as "they" are on the gravy train. leave voters like you who advocate kooonts like Rory fackin Stewart make me sick
Report politicspunter March 17, 2020 11:23 AM GMT

Mar 17, 2020 -- 6:21AM, KeMoH wrote:


None more so than your unhealthy obsession with pro-EU politicians who would have sold this country and it's people down the river. So long as "they" are on the gravy train. leave voters like you who advocate kooonts like Rory fackin Stewart make me sick


You need help.

Report peckerdunne March 17, 2020 11:25 AM GMT
BREXIT IS DEAD
Report Dr Crippen March 17, 2020 11:28 AM GMT
The virus will run its course amongst the workers anyway, because you can't keep them apart.

What the government is doing, is attempting to avoid getting too many people infected at the same time in order to allow the NHS to cope over a longer period.

And they're using scare tactics in order to achieve it.
Report jollyswagman March 17, 2020 11:30 AM GMT
they have left it too late, the nhs will probably not cope, once its got hold you have to shut down. exponential growth is a killer.
Report lapsy pa March 17, 2020 11:30 AM GMT
Bollux,they are leaving people get infected,they have no measures in place to curb it,they went the economy route
Report peckerdunne March 17, 2020 11:31 AM GMT
but everyone has been infected, its insane, and now they know they've fcuked it up..
Report lapsy pa March 17, 2020 11:32 AM GMT
Exactly Pecker, have a lie down dr.
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 11:50 AM GMT
imo the governments main problem wont be the seriously ill,the dead but will be the 20 million plus they've promised little prick wont feel a thikng,blind man will be glad to see it,blah.blah because the little evidence we of those who,ve got/had it, is that its a right wack in the stomach lot worse than ordinary flu etc, and  that's from dr,s,health workers,etc not shrinking violets,if the same symptons excuse the language hit the sniwflakes they,ll be hitting,the nhs,dr,s,A n E, IN THEIR 10,S of 1000,S THINKING THEY.ve got it a lot worse than described by the experts
Report Whisperingdeath March 17, 2020 11:56 AM GMT
This is not a political matter ladies!

We really are all in this together and the current Government whether red or blue needs to be held to account not for political advantage but for our benefit. We have no fight with each other at this stage!
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 12:07 PM GMT
would agree if the torys and knuckledraggers wernt blaming labour last week for cuts after 10 years in government
Report jollyswagman March 17, 2020 12:19 PM GMT
if you are due to have elective surgery that will be cancelled, your condition might deteriorate and you could be in a life threatening situation.

many of the serious cases are in icu for 2-3 weeks.

there are also concerns about its long term effects, some of those in china discharged from hospital appear to have reduced lung capacity. a long term study of medical staff infected with sars (which is similar apparently) in 2003 is pretty concerning.


still its good to know we arent doing as much testing, if you cant control the disease then control the narrative.

a company which makes ventilators said it had no contact from the government but jcb who make excavators (and donate large amounts of money to the tories) did.
Report thegiggilo March 17, 2020 12:25 PM GMT
Exactly i read that longterm damage to lungs,no mention of these people longterm getting time off work no doubt more DWP disasters await..
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 12:27 PM GMT
yeh but one,s doris best friend and top tory donor and one isn't

not sure which is which, LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report jollyswagman March 17, 2020 12:31 PM GMT
they should pay rent and mortgages, they should give money to those who cant work or have no work. they wont as that is socialism, they will give branson and co cash instead.

i can seee it 1tp, i am lying in hospital 'have you got a ventilator for me?' i ask, 'no' they say 'but we do have a brand new 360 degree excavator, will that do?'  LaughLaughLaugh
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 12:34 PM GMT
evidence in Italy is this strain is rarely responding to the ventilators as normal pnumomia,flu do,they lay you on your stomach and gets blood pumping but it aint working and they don't no why
Report lapsy pa March 17, 2020 12:58 PM GMT
Whisperingdeath sent you a message.
Report Angoose March 17, 2020 1:25 PM GMT
As we speak, Hapless Hancock is locked away in a television studio filming the first in a series of DIY specials.

In episode 1, Hapless will demonstrate how an unused fridge can easily be converted to a ventilator using nothing more than a Swiss army knife, an empty washing up liquid bottle, and some sticky backed plastic. Shocked
Report Dr Crippen March 17, 2020 1:33 PM GMT
They've certainly got hysterics like lapsy pa worked up. Which is the idea I suppose.

The vast majority of people who get it will recover quite nicely.

But if you're on the vulnerable list then stay clear of other people.
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 1:53 PM GMT
the good dr
theres very little recorded evidence at all of those recovering but absolute none  confirming the governments, jog on,blind man will be glad to see it ,etc,etc,the little we have got is of the worst flu ever and theres been some bad ones, like been kicked in head,stomach by a horse etc,
Report CLYDEBANK29 March 17, 2020 2:33 PM GMT
In 1968/69 the Hong Kong Flu killed 80,000 in the UK "whereas illness was diffuse and affected only small numbers of people in Japan, it was widespread and deadly in the United States"

Something similar appears to be happening in Italy
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 2:37 PM GMT
germany lots of positives no deaths
Singapore hit early on the curve no deaths
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 2:38 PM GMT
407 new positive cases in uk
Report thegiggilo March 17, 2020 2:43 PM GMT
omg..
Report sewter lives again March 17, 2020 2:43 PM GMT
you can argue all you like it doesn't matter who's right or wrong policy wise the NHS still wouldn't be able to cope
Report breadnbutter March 17, 2020 2:53 PM GMT
It's not flu its sars-cov2,with  middle strand dna very similar to hiv1,comparing countries is OK but this virus seems to affect different  different peoples differently, SK done/doing mass testing so a lot more cases (found) the cases their are mostly in younger women apparently,a group consisting of non smokers, so the stats look good on the face it it yor comparing apples with oranges. Italy behind SK  on testing is mostly testing older men already showing symptoms, a group which will be high on smokers, and will most likely be on ace-i and arbs for high BP, sars-cov2 loves old male smokers full of ace2 which the high BP drugs produce. So stats are not worth a flying. Also lombardy a region of 10m has on average 100k deaths a year anyway, reports of post humas tests not being done,ect ect, lies damned lies and statistics.
Report breadnbutter March 17, 2020 2:55 PM GMT
*Posthumous
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 2:58 PM GMT
nice write up breadnbutter,i,m moving you up to the top table
Report lapsy pa March 17, 2020 2:59 PM GMT
Dr Crippen 13.33

"they certainly got hysterics like lapsy pa wound up"

Well i tried my best to listen to you,going on about flu and numbers,wound up,yes,i'm afraid unlike yourself i don't have a lot of optimism for the near future.
Report breadnbutter March 17, 2020 3:01 PM GMT
Also looks like hot humid countries fairing better, but its also about the human genetic makeup. Italians have a bit of skin colour so maybe thats a factor, lombardy at right temp /humidity for optimal transmission and its got a perfect  host that kisses each other all the time, wondering if sk women maybe get close with one another in similar style to Italian males,maybe go about in huddles to prevent upskirting or summit.
Report David Icke March 17, 2020 3:01 PM GMT
You can say Covid19 to the tune of Come on Eileen.

And that can only help everybody.
Report David Icke March 17, 2020 3:03 PM GMT
Every time I see the word Covid19 it starts in my head.
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 3:04 PM GMT
you've got to love the knuckledragggers ,spent 4 years telling the world uk public were prepared to take a hit in their pockets no matter how long TO GET BREXIT DONE, BUT not prepared to take a hit in their pockets ,TO GET STOP DYING DONE, go figure Confused
Report treetop March 17, 2020 3:10 PM GMT
if we had left in 2017 and stopped free movement we might have been better placed to manage this problem too.Wondered when Brexit voters would get the blame Laugh
Report Angoose March 17, 2020 3:17 PM GMT
Yes, no one would have gone skiing in Italy Crazy
Report inner city sumo March 17, 2020 3:18 PM GMT
Unless your plan for Brexit involved (i.) no-one ever leaving the country on holiday, and (ii.) no-one ever visiting the UK from abroad as a tourist or on business, leaving in 2017 would have made zero difference.
Report Angoose March 17, 2020 3:23 PM GMT
There has never ever been a plan for Brexit, just a few catchy slogans. Cry
Report Whisperingdeath March 17, 2020 3:33 PM GMT
This really seems like a training drill to me and we are failing it badly
Report hello :-) March 17, 2020 3:34 PM GMT
what a lunatic we have in charge

cant even comb his hair the oaf

strategy changing daily as lack of early reaction catches up with them


panic mode engaged , looking calm and appearing to know whats going on will soon crumble as a nation grinds to a halt
Report breadnbutter March 17, 2020 3:37 PM GMT
Has jezza self isolated?
Report Whisperingdeath March 17, 2020 3:39 PM GMT
I am wondering if they are really modelling society reaction. They are quite clearly trying to induce fear and panic with the way they are carrying on. Maybe they want to know how far they can push us?
Report dambuster March 17, 2020 3:55 PM GMT
The Media will cause more deaths by fear,than the Virus ever will.Unless of course, they're not telling us all the facts.
Report peckerdunne March 17, 2020 3:59 PM GMT
Get your last of the big macs Laugh
Report GRANTCKING March 17, 2020 3:59 PM GMT

Mar 17, 2020 -- 10:55AM, dambuster wrote:


The Media will cause more deaths by fear,than the Virus ever will.Unless of course, they're not telling us all the facts.


+1 to this

Report GRANTCKING March 17, 2020 4:00 PM GMT

Mar 17, 2020 -- 10:59AM, peckerdunne wrote:


Get your last of the big macs


what happened?

Report SontaranStratagem March 17, 2020 4:00 PM GMT
"the model" Laugh

Yes its a numbers model not an actual prediction
Report peckerdunne March 17, 2020 4:01 PM GMT
American bailout commencing
Report peckerdunne March 17, 2020 4:02 PM GMT
cant see these big corps getting money breaks etc
Report SontaranStratagem March 17, 2020 4:03 PM GMT
They ain't telling you the facts because the media don't have a clue what's going off

This is well above any government, hence the media looking puzzled by it, its funny to watch as finally those little rats are realising they ain't the lords
Report SontaranStratagem March 17, 2020 4:04 PM GMT
South America aren't being drilled for this?

Their football and sport is still going, their social events are still there
Report peckerdunne March 17, 2020 4:05 PM GMT
dont go to restaurant but we need them to  feed the population, by order, at social distance

blah blah protecting americans and their money, markets open, until we shut em
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 4:06 PM GMT
call trump what you  want AND I DO,its morning in usa and he,s in frtont of camera,s answering question,doris been up 10 hrs and not a word
Report peckerdunne March 17, 2020 4:11 PM GMT
Yeah he is saying we will get rid of the virus, thats the thig get rid of kill the virus,

but he says i think it will pop back again real hard but thats just what i think Laugh

yes he just said that


your doin a good job, a good jawb
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 4:14 PM GMT
another trump bloomer I think he meant the markets were going to pop back,wife thought same as you
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 4:17 PM GMT
why are all these companies airlines,airports,eateries asking for bailouts in a mad rush sacking /laying off people ,why arnt they waiting to see whst sunak i9s going to do, a cynic might think their trying to play both ends at the same time,and yes I,m a cynic
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 4:23 PM GMT
call me a cynic,ive admitted I am Laugh,
but unlike trump out early putting life into usastockmarkets with his proposals, does the fact the markets are about to close in the uk,sunaks package might not be as big as everyone seems to be predicting and city might react badly
Report jollyswagman March 17, 2020 4:26 PM GMT
rishi is going to monitor events and stand ready if needed Sad
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 4:28 PM GMT
try for universal credit
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 4:37 PM GMT
today mr vallancesay testing must be stepped up ,last thursday he said theres that many got it,its of no importance and geographical testing is of no use
and people say scientists shouldn't be questioned,this fella wanted/hoped 50 million people would get this last week
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 4:41 PM GMT
14 more gone,69
Report peckerdunne March 17, 2020 5:01 PM GMT
the great british failout coming through
Report peckerdunne March 17, 2020 5:03 PM GMT
you must queue outside the dole office at least one metre apart if you wish to claim that extra 12 quid a week if you have been a jolly good chap
Report SontaranStratagem March 17, 2020 5:04 PM GMT
69 people is absolutely nothing 1tp

As for the job centres they are now banning face to face appointments and its phone appointments only, that's from my cousin and I've checked and lots are saying this on Facebook as well
Report Whisperingdeath March 17, 2020 5:06 PM GMT
Eh eh eh

Barry Grant is in Eastenders!
Report SontaranStratagem March 17, 2020 5:07 PM GMT
My cousin rang up and told them he had corona virus, I mean that's the stupidity of all this
Report 1st time poster March 17, 2020 5:07 PM GMT
we.ve still got people mp,s worried about people in gig economy going to work when sick, ergh in London look out of the window,there is no foooooooking gig economy to go to
Report SontaranStratagem March 17, 2020 5:09 PM GMT
It remind me of the scene with trigger before they watch the po-rn vid made in Del Boys flat (mickey and his female friend)

"you dirty rat" met with "oh for gods sake"
Report GRANTCKING March 17, 2020 6:58 PM GMT

Mar 17, 2020 -- 12:07PM, SontaranStratagem wrote:


My cousin rang up and told them he had corona virus, I mean that's the stupidity of all this


LaughLaugh

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