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17 Mar 20
11:14
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04 Jul 15
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
this is the model the uk government is using, the numbers are absolutely mind blowing. they had assumed the same number of hospitalisations as with pneumonia but data from london and italy showed twice as many victims needed hospital treatment. this meant that if they had not changed strategy 250,000 people would die.
Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency
surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the
most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case
isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general
ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical
care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we
predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates
of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning
estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty
around the limits of hospital surge capacity.
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The
social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be
profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier
stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.
yesterday we completely changed strategy and will be following the chinese in trying to suppress covid 19 for 12-18 months in the hope that a vaccine is developed. this policy is also a risk, there is no easy answer.
'we were expecting herd immunity to build. we now realise its not possible to cope with that.' the w h o and many other epidemioligists pointed this out some time ago.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths
this is the model the uk government is using, the numbers are absolutely mind blowing. they had assumed the same number of hospitalisations as with pneumonia but data from london and italy showed twice as many victims needed hospital treatment. this meant that if they had not changed strategy 250,000 people would die.
Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency
surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the
most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case
isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general
ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical
care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we
predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates
of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning
estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty
around the limits of hospital surge capacity.
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The
social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be
profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier
stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.
yesterday we completely changed strategy and will be following the chinese in trying to suppress covid 19 for 12-18 months in the hope that a vaccine is developed. this policy is also a risk, there is no easy answer.
'we were expecting herd immunity to build. we now realise its not possible to cope with that.' the w h o and many other epidemioligists pointed this out some time ago.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths
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could have saved 20 sheets of A4 paper opened their eyes ,looked at Italy and fooooking listened,instead of playing after drinks party science games with the loooony right wing nut jobs in no 10,
heard that dr who,s hadvirus on tv again last night saying they don't have to test threy,ll just monitoir symptons to find hotspots,he,s a few questions from a thicko how do you no its not just seasonal flu how do you no children arnt spreading it and noit showing signs idris elba has it positive not a single sign, I used to believe everything,trusted what the school crossing lady told me,for the last 20 years ive had a new rule no matter how many letters they have after their name always believe till they prove otherwise that they are thicker than yourself |
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lets be honest weve had 3 months to learn off china,hongkong, japan,tiawan ,Singapore,italy, etc etc we didn't need any modelling,blue sky thinking we just had to follow learn of others,not worry what might come back next year,year after, the nhs situation regards staffing,equipment, etc is 99% set in stone we are where we are no amount of modelling is going to change 10 years of tory cuts in 6 weeks
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It beggars belief. It was fecking obvious all along.
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Mind boggling,good post JS.
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One of the worst cases of groupthink you'll ever see.
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All predicted over the last two years,disaster capitalism underfunding everything it was only a matter of time economists have been predicting it for two years,the virus has now thoroughy exposed how inadequate everything is in the country..Anyone with half a braincell new it was coming,just needed a trigger..Amazed so many people have kept falling for it,now seeing the full escalation..
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you dont need a ph d you just need common sense but our leaders and their advisers have none.
testing, isolation and contact tracing - china, south korea, taiwan, singapore and hong kong but not the uk. let's hope they have the army on standby they may be needed around here. i know some of you aint that keen on us southerners but we are in the firing line. the frightening curve is the very small one right at the bottom that aint changing, that's the number of icu beds. we are fecked, not only do we not have enough ventilators the poor nhs arent getting the correct protective equipment. to stop the nhs being over run we had to stop it getting hold, we had the containment stage which involved doing nothing. i follow chris martenson on you tube, he's a financial type but has a phd in a related field and he was on this late january. i only paid attention late february but he kept talking about exponential growth, he said it wasnt really his phd just his undersatnding of exponential growth that had him worried. and this is what overwhelms the system if this thing is not dealt with. about 9.30pm most nights he will have an update. |
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Common sense is not so common
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Rory Stewart was the only politician who had the common sense and drive to try and push us in the right direction.
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of course he was kicked out of the Tory Party
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Almost 170,000 people have been counted as infected and at least 6,509 have died from confirmed coronavirus cases, according to a Reuters tally that counted patients in 156 countries.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/03/16/coronavirus-death-toll-passes-6500-worldwide/#1e850506a542 The population of the UK is a fraction of the world's population. So with in comparison to the numbers of dead abroad, the prediction of 250,000 dead in the UK looks a tad hysterical to say the least. Or more accurately in view of the figures so far - ludicrous. |
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Rory Stewart is a europhile, the further away from office he is... the better.
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Dr you called me thick, you come back to me next monday, the monday after that and another few mondays following,you will get your wake up call then,
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europhile
 brexit is history |
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Rory Stewart would have been a brilliant Prime Minister, he is different class from the current buffoon and I am a Conservative leave voter.
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crippen tell the scientists and government who have now changed policy. if this thing isnt controlled it grows exponentially, that is what would lead to the high numbers of deaths. see lombardy, they have field hospitals. there is still some hope, another region in italy locked down early and they arent being wiped out. the trouble with the lock down strategy is that it has to be for a while and eventually people will get bored so a later spike seems inevitable.
south korea tests, isolates and contact traces but didnt have a massive lock down. i think our actual case numbers means we are past being able to do exactly as they did. |
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Rory Stewart needs to be locked up with the likes of Ken Clarke, Cleggy and "Call Me Dave". The left wing loons are no better than Blair et al who wanted us to join the Euro
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this isnt an eu thread please stay on topic. tia
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None more so than your unhealthy obsession with pro-EU politicians who would have sold this country and it's people down the river. So long as "they" are on the gravy train. leave voters like you who advocate kooonts like Rory fackin Stewart make me sick
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BREXIT IS DEAD
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The virus will run its course amongst the workers anyway, because you can't keep them apart.
What the government is doing, is attempting to avoid getting too many people infected at the same time in order to allow the NHS to cope over a longer period. And they're using scare tactics in order to achieve it. |
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they have left it too late, the nhs will probably not cope, once its got hold you have to shut down. exponential growth is a killer.
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Bollux,they are leaving people get infected,they have no measures in place to curb it,they went the economy route
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but everyone has been infected, its insane, and now they know they've fcuked it up..
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Exactly Pecker, have a lie down dr.
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imo the governments main problem wont be the seriously ill,the dead but will be the 20 million plus they've promised little prick wont feel a thikng,blind man will be glad to see it,blah.blah because the little evidence we of those who,ve got/had it, is that its a right wack in the stomach lot worse than ordinary flu etc, and that's from dr,s,health workers,etc not shrinking violets,if the same symptons excuse the language hit the sniwflakes they,ll be hitting,the nhs,dr,s,A n E, IN THEIR 10,S of 1000,S THINKING THEY.ve got it a lot worse than described by the experts
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This is not a political matter ladies!
We really are all in this together and the current Government whether red or blue needs to be held to account not for political advantage but for our benefit. We have no fight with each other at this stage! |
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would agree if the torys and knuckledraggers wernt blaming labour last week for cuts after 10 years in government
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if you are due to have elective surgery that will be cancelled, your condition might deteriorate and you could be in a life threatening situation.
many of the serious cases are in icu for 2-3 weeks. there are also concerns about its long term effects, some of those in china discharged from hospital appear to have reduced lung capacity. a long term study of medical staff infected with sars (which is similar apparently) in 2003 is pretty concerning. still its good to know we arent doing as much testing, if you cant control the disease then control the narrative. a company which makes ventilators said it had no contact from the government but jcb who make excavators (and donate large amounts of money to the tories) did. |
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Exactly i read that longterm damage to lungs,no mention of these people longterm getting time off work no doubt more DWP disasters await..
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yeh but one,s doris best friend and top tory donor and one isn't
not sure which is which, |
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they should pay rent and mortgages, they should give money to those who cant work or have no work. they wont as that is socialism, they will give branson and co cash instead.
i can seee it 1tp, i am lying in hospital 'have you got a ventilator for me?' i ask, 'no' they say 'but we do have a brand new 360 degree excavator, will that do?' |
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evidence in Italy is this strain is rarely responding to the ventilators as normal pnumomia,flu do,they lay you on your stomach and gets blood pumping but it aint working and they don't no why
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Whisperingdeath sent you a message.
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As we speak, Hapless Hancock is locked away in a television studio filming the first in a series of DIY specials.
In episode 1, Hapless will demonstrate how an unused fridge can easily be converted to a ventilator using nothing more than a Swiss army knife, an empty washing up liquid bottle, and some sticky backed plastic.  |
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They've certainly got hysterics like lapsy pa worked up. Which is the idea I suppose.
The vast majority of people who get it will recover quite nicely. But if you're on the vulnerable list then stay clear of other people. |
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the good dr
theres very little recorded evidence at all of those recovering but absolute none confirming the governments, jog on,blind man will be glad to see it ,etc,etc,the little we have got is of the worst flu ever and theres been some bad ones, like been kicked in head,stomach by a horse etc, |