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19 Feb 20
09:15
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24 Mar 04
Are they real or just like punters on a winning run?
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Another group of people who use computer jargon to con money out of the rest of the population and Governments are the most vulnerable group to being conned. Just look at the forecasting of HS2! How many multi million computer systems have the Government (of both parties) commissioned and paid for that never worked? Did they get their money back? Of course not. If you bought a car that would not start, you would get redress but computers or software? Of course not.
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The book is ok: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/1511358491
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sageform,
You're wasting your time explaining the ways of the world to Charlie once he's hooked. Somebody sold him Tower Bridge before they realised he was skint. |
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Everyone is a punter. Yes it’s the ones on a winning run who get called super forecasters and they are always one punt away from getting it wrong.
It’s just like the old betting con of sending out letters with tips. |
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I must confess I haven't, but did listen to one of Tetlock's group talking on 5 Live last night. She wasn't willing to make any forecasts.
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I didn't listen to it but I'm not surprised there weren't any forecasts. It's not a spur of the moment thing. It's only applicable to certain problems and takes months (or more) of monitoring situations, changing opinions based on research, giving confidence of an event and being prepared to change it and say why, teamwork and much, much more. The people that can do it are few but are good at what they do - nothing to do with recent politics. There's a lot to it hence the book.
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plenty of things that could be fixed quickly so either superforecasters arnt super or don't give a fook
homelessness rough sleeping foodbanks knife crime child care social care dementia care fly tipping etc,etc,etc to mundane for the superforecaster,s obviously, but japan changed the motorcar industry by doing what they call,lean working small steps,solve the small things and it solves 80% of a major problem |
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I assume you didn't read my post.
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Or don't understand what forecasting means.
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think the Japanese [ Toyota ] had a word for it ,from memory KARSI
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Summary
Most people are horrible at predictions, and most experts are even worse. The closer the topic is to their field, the worse the expert usually is at predictions. Top predictors have a particular set of attributes. They are high in Openness, they enjoy intellectual activity, they are comfortable with uncertainty, they distrust their gut, they’re neither left or right, they treat their beliefs as hypotheses, they are bayesian, they believe in the wisdom of crowds, and they strongly believe in chance rather than fate. If you want to be better at predicting things, and generally not be the idiot that makes wild predictions that don’t come true, do your best to adopt and constantly reinforce these behaviors. |
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sociopaths
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Not read it.
Nothing wrong with it from what I have gleaned, reading reviews but not new either. Remember the Eddie Murphy film, Trading Places. Also Tim Harford’s book Adapt. At the end of the day it’s clear thinking and common sense. Or am I being sceptical? |
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I have not read the book and I don't pretend to understand the technical details. All I would say at age 75 is that I have heard experts making forecasts based on past data for all of my adult life but as the financial markets prove "past results gives no guide to future performance". I have heard predictions of a mini ice age, permanent water rationing, millions of deaths from this or that disease epidemic (remember mad cow disease), human settlements on the moon etc. The only one that has more or less come true is 1984 by George Orwell which was written as fiction and he only got the year wrong.
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Everyone wants to be Nostradamus.
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"Most people are horrible at predictions, and most experts are even worse"
Something that many on here would definitely agree with! I very much doubt Sabisky is a genuine super forecaster given his views, more likely the term has simply become trendy amongst the populist movement. |
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I wonder how many winners he backs!
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Great stuff sageform.Very few on here will grasp that as most are in denial of what is happening all around them. If you have never seen this clip before then I strongly recommend you give it a browse. Some do understand the workings of the world but if they get too much right and tell everyone about it they are unceremoniously removed from the table.
https://youtu.be/sI4wmzQExaY |
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I've read the Tetlock book. Very interesting. Here is a CIA take on the question:
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol-63-no-4/pdfs/Limits-of-Prediction.pdf I share @Cauthenmeister's scepticism about Sabisky. Surely if he had a track record of forecasting anything at all, we'd have been told over the last few days. |
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sabisky is one of thousands in uni from the right believing in these idea,s and wanting a job in politics,
the real modern superforecasters were those predicting climate change 30 years ago ,described by the likes of trump,doris,tory,s etc as charlatans,, liars,hocus pocus,deciever,s etc etc |
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Are there thousands from the right in uni? Are we talking uk or worldwide?
My impression is that anyone ever so slightly right leaning at uni these days had to keep their head down. 1stTP, by your suggestion above that makes the Green Party superforecasters. Would Soros and Cable qualify? |
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a few years ago on the financial forum a chap monitored the performance of some brokers, he compared how their recommended sells did against the general stock market. sure as eggs is eggs the sells outperformed the market
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Somebody always outperforms the market.
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the ones the so called experts said to sell shouldnt
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The first politician to warn about climate change 30 years ago was ... drumroll ... Margaret Thatcher.
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Its like the "war on terror",they can reinvented it time and time again for whatever purpose they seem fit,its a very sad world we live in.
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