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stewarts rise
10 Dec 19 14:45
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Apr 04
| Topic/replies: 15,377 | Blogger: stewarts rise's blog
I lived in Great Barr for many years in North Birmingham, like a lot of people moved to Sutton Coldfield the next borough to me when i moved house. Great barr comes under the constituency of Perry Barr which for the past 40/50 years has been won by Labour because of its high Block vote by Asians, won by an 18,383 majority last GE.
In Sutton a wealthier area the Conservatives always get in easily, last time by a majority of 15,339.
From a working class background, dad was a miner in the Rhonnda Valley at 14, i should be a natural labour voter, but myself and all my mates wouldn't dream of voting for Corbyn and his Mob.
Is there any point in going to vote for anyone in either constituency with such huge majorities!
Perhaps these 2 constituancies should be amalgamated into one big area.
Anyone else have a similar problem where they live.
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Report saddo December 10, 2019 2:57 PM GMT
I never vote as Labour always win round here. I thought I might this time as they've never been weaker, just found out that the Tory candidate is a Muslim  Sad
Report stewarts rise December 10, 2019 3:00 PM GMT
They should have a No one worth voting for box imo, might be interesting to see how many put their X in it.
Report Hanx December 10, 2019 3:11 PM GMT
My effect on democracy has been sweet FA.

Every constituency I've ever lived in - from inner city London and Liverpool to leafy afflent Home Counties - has had rock-solid majorites for either of the two main parties. You may as well go p1$$ up a rope....

I was on the wrong side of the Proportional Representation vote a few years back. The one time I thought I'd 'won' (in the last EU Referendum) I came to realise that with at least 70% of Parliament; BBC1; BBC2; BBC3; BBC4; BBC5-live, BBC 6 Music; BBC online; ITV; Channel 4;The Times; The Mirror; The Guardian; The FT; the Observer; The CBI; 90% of EU governments; George Soros; Tony Blair and acolytes; serving and former presidents of the USA; failed presidential nominees of the USA; Matthew Parris, Robert Peston, the Bank of England; the world of entertainment; fifty FTSE 100 business leaders and over a thousand other business leaders; the Scottish nationalists (Really - nationalists you say? Yes, really); Irish nationalists (Really - nationalists you say? Yes, really); people who have never paid tax; Gary Lineker, Lily Allen and a million other assorted luvvies, globalists and progressives; £9m of leaflets; The European Movement, Open Europe, The Centre for European Reform; and did I mention the BBC - I didn't stand a chance of having my voice heard.

Democracy?

I sh1t it
Report alun2005 December 10, 2019 3:16 PM GMT
Wherever I have lived, it has always been in ultra-safe constituencies for either Labour or Tory. No change in either strongholds in my lifetime.

Another pointless visit to the Polling Station awaits me on Thursday.
Report Foinavon December 10, 2019 3:19 PM GMT
Birmingham Hall Green. A massive block vote here too so much so that the contest is between the Labour official candidate and the previous MP who was deselected over support for the parents' school protest against LBGT teaching for infants and is now standing as Independent Labour.
I will still go and make my mark for Brexit though, since total support for the issue will still be assessed afterwards.
Report alun2005 December 10, 2019 3:22 PM GMT
Well done Foinavon. That will have to be my solitary incentive as well.
Report Foinavon December 10, 2019 3:30 PM GMT
Thanks Alan, we have to speak up when asked.
Incidentally, I hope Roger Godsiff, the independent wins as I'm against that issue being taught to very young kids.
Report knot in wood December 10, 2019 3:34 PM GMT
i'm in the same boat, you could put a red labour rosette on a donkey and it would still win easily round hear.

but i still think you should make a effort to vote, even if it's the independent candidate who might share some of your views.

must admit it annoys me when people moan and groan about the result and have not even voted.
Report Hanx December 10, 2019 3:38 PM GMT
I disagree and am already working on creative methods of spoiling my ballot paper.
Report acey deucy December 10, 2019 3:41 PM GMT
Breaks my heart not to vote Labour where I live as they have no chance  so it will have to be the Lib Dems who have half a chance here....Anything to get them fackin Torys out.
Report lux December 10, 2019 4:00 PM GMT
I live in Clownworld (Brighton Pavillion) so my vote will count for very little. I will definitely vote or spoil, not sure which yet.
Report 1st time poster December 10, 2019 4:22 PM GMT
according to tactical voting website I,m in a lab/tory marginal, be voting labour to keep the 26 yr old tory out, so he can concentrate on his homework, so I,m actually benefiting both parties,thats me generous to a fault
Report moisok December 10, 2019 4:31 PM GMT
my constituency is posh  - so it goes without saying blue all over sadly - and  the lab candidate the same as saddo's

- the picture of jeremy and his last begging letter from central office for 1 or 3 quid etc told a story(I am a member)

three people feature and it tells you most of what you need to know about who Labour seem to support to the exculusion of the majority in this country.
Report SlippyBlue December 10, 2019 4:50 PM GMT
Dulwich/West Norwwod has been a Labour stronghold for many years, no chance of that ever changing.
Report Injera December 10, 2019 5:03 PM GMT
Mid Sussex, Tory 20k majority. No Brexit Party candidate. I won't vote.
Report jollyswagman December 10, 2019 5:05 PM GMT
i hope you all voted for change in the alternative vote referendum.
Report GRANTCKING December 10, 2019 5:06 PM GMT
no point in me voting either, SNP cant lose
Report HGS December 10, 2019 5:06 PM GMT
I'm Warwick & Leamington which was generally a Tory stronghold til the Blair years, when Labour gained control. Tories won back under Cameron but was one of the seats lost by May back to Labour in 2017 by a couple of thousand or so, so all to play for. Could be close again,  but my hunch is that Matt Western, sitting Labour MP may just hold on as this area as a whole voted Remain in the referendum and in all fairness as a local MP, he isn't bad. As a Brexit voter though, he won't be getting my vote.
Report Charlie December 10, 2019 5:19 PM GMT
West Bromwich East has only ever been Labour since being formed in 1974. Only had 2 MPs in that time Peter Snape and Tom Watson. Current candidate is Ibrahim Dogus who seems a bit dodgy and is a firm remainer, with 68% voting Brexit it could be close.

George Galloway is standing as an independent.

I could never for the nasties so still not sure who to vote for.
Report morpteh mackem December 10, 2019 5:21 PM GMT
in wansbeck, labour stronghold ,already voted. love to live in next one north ( berwick )  to see tory mp there lose her seat. i would move into that constituency just so could vote against her.
Report darren_discombobulates_sports December 10, 2019 5:21 PM GMT
I yearn for the day when the Monster Raving Loony Party comes to townExcited
Report prepared83 December 10, 2019 5:45 PM GMT
Reading west, probably worth me voting as could be close
Report invicta December 10, 2019 5:55 PM GMT
big tory vote where I am, 22900 majority in 2017, no chance of a change, area voted leave and a strong leaver candidate. well pleased.
Report Wallflower December 10, 2019 6:06 PM GMT
Close one for me SNP in race with Torys.     

So will definitely be voting for the SNP.  In addition have a few relatives in same constituency who are switching. Its very volatile I think.


> 2 are now definitely SNP and will vote. Happy  (1 is a previous non-voter, the other previously Conservative (pro-EU; Brexit has impacted his nice little business negatively - he is not a happy camper)

> 2 more in a quandry - Both UK Unionists ( 1 is Labour, 1 is conservative) but both very staunch EU remainers also.  Think the lady previously voting conservative is not voting at all ( She is NOT voting for Boris Johnson.....  "he just offends me"!).  The other undecided, still Labour or outside chance of SNP.

> 1 more - a serial switcher, actually voted for independence but doesn't want Indy Ref 2 - is voting ConservativeCryCry  (un** f*ckin believable!!). Need to work on him.



2 more I think will also switch from Conservative, though unfortunately might not go SNP but definitely not Conservative (so that is progress of sorts) as they are staunch EU remainers but staunch UK Unionists. Tough spot - but 1
Report Pleasegivemeanailedontip December 10, 2019 6:14 PM GMT
How can a sizeable majority ever be overturned if nobody can be bothered to vote against it?
Report Fenway December 10, 2019 6:18 PM GMT
Nottingham South is a Labour stronghold, and will comfortably return Ms Greenwood despite the city voting for Brexit in 2016.

I always go along to vote. This time I am undecided. I don't know whether to place my cross firmly against my handwritten words 'None of the above' or 'None of you useless idiots could run a whelk stall'
Report Coachbuster December 10, 2019 6:47 PM GMT

Dec 10, 2019 -- 3:00PM, stewarts rise wrote:


They should have a No one worth voting for box imo, might be interesting to see how many put their X in it.


isn't that simply the abstainers ?

Report Charlie December 10, 2019 7:18 PM GMT
No Coach, abstaining may just show apathy whereas actively going to the booth and writing 'None of the above' means something. I doubt whether any comments on the ballot papers are recorded though.
Report Crisp77 December 10, 2019 8:01 PM GMT
Mine is conservative all the way. I've lived in Labour and Conservative strongholds and prefer the conservative ones on the whole.
Report moisok December 10, 2019 8:02 PM GMT
I am sure you all know it is a con.
Report Manoleeds December 10, 2019 9:27 PM GMT
Elmet and Rothwell. Shelbrooke wins whether I vote for or against him.Out of 650 constituencies about 500(?) are safe seats (no doubt someone can give a better figure) .
Report saddo December 10, 2019 9:31 PM GMT
I used to go to school at Rothwell long ago.
Report ribero1 December 10, 2019 9:57 PM GMT
I'm Elmet and Rothwell too,will be voting Tory as always,changing tack a little how many on here have actually been swing voters? Always fascinated me how many swap from party to party at different elections,never occurred to me although if it had been the Tories who had founded the Gambling Commission I would have had to give it serious consideration.
Report GRANTCKING December 10, 2019 11:14 PM GMT

Dec 10, 2019 -- 5:06PM, GRANTCKING wrote:


no point in me voting either, SNP cant lose


need to scrap this! just found out my constituency now a coin toss between conservatives and SNP

Report CLYDEBANK29 December 10, 2019 11:14 PM GMT
I've been tossing up whether to vote Tory or LD.  Wouldn't have thought this was anything other than a safe Tory seat but odds of 1/10 suggest there might be a small doubt.  LDs haven't got a chance of winning so reluctantly voting Tory as a vote for the LDs is effectively a vote for Corbyn.
Report doantwin2easy December 10, 2019 11:46 PM GMT

Dec 10, 2019 -- 6:14PM, Pleasegivemeanailedontip wrote:


How can a sizeable majority ever be overturned if nobody can be bothered to vote against it?


Because of the system we have - designed to create MP's who push forward the agenda of their constituents on local issues.

But in reality, acting as whipping boys for national parties with national agendas.

Report wit-ham December 11, 2019 12:20 AM GMT
Only 18,000 odd majority here last time
Report Coachbuster December 11, 2019 1:54 AM GMT

Dec 10, 2019 -- 7:18PM, Charlie wrote:


No Coach, abstaining may just show apathy whereas actively going to the booth and writing 'None of the above' means something. I doubt whether any comments on the ballot papers are recorded though.


isn't apathy the same thing though Charlie lad ?  unless it's p1ssing down with rain of course .


I think they  should at least reward you with a beer for turning up  Silly

Report Coachbuster December 11, 2019 1:58 AM GMT
nearly all labour voters in my  neighbourhood and yet a 99% white population.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 11, 2019 10:52 AM GMT
"Make beer cheaper in pubs than supermarkets and save an entire industry."

Unfortunately the MRLP aren't standing in my constituency, so can't vote for this great policy
Report ribero1 December 11, 2019 11:31 AM GMT
Was talking to a friends daughter this morning,she's at uni and says all the students even the rich ones vote Labour as they think its trendy and rebellious.
Report trilby22 December 11, 2019 11:54 AM GMT
Ochil and South Perthshire.  Absolutely essential.  Tight race between Conservatives - Luke Graham (good bloke) and SNP - John Nicolson (parachuted in from Jo Swinson's constituency of East Dunbartonshire and complete w@nk).  Graham currently 11/10.  C'mon!
Report trilby22 December 11, 2019 11:56 AM GMT

Dec 10, 2019 -- 11:14PM, GRANTCKING wrote:


Dec 10, 2019 --  5:06PM, GRANTCKING wrote:no point in me voting either, SNP cant loseneed to scrap this! just found out my constituency now a coin toss between conservatives and SNP


Post disappeared Cry  Try again …

Aberdeen South, Grant?  Is that sofee tadger from there too?

Report Badsworth December 11, 2019 12:00 PM GMT
Warwick & Leamington for me, same as HG5. Lots of students from Warwick University but many will have gone home now.
No SNP candidate here so still undecided which way to vote, maybe the Independent.
Report Poppydog. December 11, 2019 12:04 PM GMT
Eastbourne here - current odds

4/5 Caroline Ansell (Con)
6/5 Stephen Lloyd current MP (Lib)

100/1 bar

They have swapped Parliamentary seats 3x over the past 5 years

Some nasty 'fighting' in the run up
Report sageform December 11, 2019 1:44 PM GMT
Wells for me. Last 3 elections: LD, Tory, Tory and likely to be fairly close if the few thousand Labour voters from 2017 vote Libdem. It is a leave area though.
Report HGS December 11, 2019 5:54 PM GMT
Badsworth. Not just Warwick Uni but also Cov Uni and there are plenty who haven't gone home for the holidays yet. And it isn't just unis, my middle daugghetr is a sixth form and she has been preaching Labour to me for a while now. It won't work. Current prices are 8/11 Con & Evs Lab. Would have Labour favs mesen on the student basis and the fact Matt Western, current Labour MP is quite popular.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 11, 2019 6:13 PM GMT
Yougov has Warwick red 46/42
Report Whisperingdeath December 11, 2019 6:22 PM GMT
remainunited.org

Your Constituency

Chatham and Aylesford

Recommendation

For the best chance of reducing the Conservative majority, vote Labour

Explanation

Conservative in the lead with Labour in second place

Predicted Vote Shares:
Conservative: 60%
Labour: 29%
Lib Dems: 9%
Brexit: 0%
Green: 2%
SNP / PC: 0%
UKIP: 0%
MIN: 0%
Other: 0%
Report Whisperingdeath December 11, 2019 6:24 PM GMT
Count    Seat    Predicted winner without tactical voting    TACTICAL VOTING RECOMMENDATION
Number of votes needed to topple the Tories
1    Carshalton and Wallington    CONSERVATIVE    LIBERAL DEMOCRAT    808
2    Aberdeen South    CONSERVATIVE    SNP    57
3    Eastbourne    CONSERVATIVE    LIBERAL DEMOCRAT    99
4    Kensington    CONSERVATIVE    LIBERAL DEMOCRAT    3,011
5    Ayr Carrick and Cumnock    CONSERVATIVE    SNP    610
6    St Albans    CONSERVATIVE    LIBERAL DEMOCRAT    3,239
7    Lewes    CONSERVATIVE    LIBERAL DEMOCRAT    1,604
8    Angus    CONSERVATIVE    SNP    789
9    Winchester    CONSERVATIVE    LIBERAL DEMOCRAT    1,985
10    Workington    CONSERVATIVE    LABOUR    164
11    Darlington    CONSERVATIVE    LABOUR    124
12    Bridgend    CONSERVATIVE    LABOUR    415
13    Bassetlaw    CONSERVATIVE    LABOUR    969
14    Chingford and Woodford Green    CONSERVATIVE    LABOUR    324
15    Bury South    CONSERVATIVE    LABOUR    825
16    Clwyd South    CONSERVATIVE    LABOUR    427
17    Putney    CONSERVATIVE    LABOUR    2,088
18    Wrexham    CONSERVATIVE    LABOUR    445
Report HGS December 11, 2019 6:26 PM GMT
Very interesting clydebank. If I wasn't voting tuther way, I'd be having an investment at evens. Almost worth an insurance policy! Laugh
Report GRANTCKING December 11, 2019 6:46 PM GMT
Post disappeared Cry  Try again …

Aberdeen South, Grant?  Is that sofee tadger from there too?



yeh tribly im aberdeen south, not sure about sophie!
Report alun2005 December 11, 2019 6:55 PM GMT
Granty - can I rely on you rounding up the Quayside Girls into the Polling Station to get the Conservative candidate into Westminster, potentially sparing us the horror of a Corbyn/Islamic Government ?
Report GRANTCKING December 11, 2019 7:02 PM GMT
Grin of course alun
Report alun2005 December 11, 2019 7:03 PM GMT
That's great news indeed. 

Granty Akbar.
Report GRANTCKING December 11, 2019 8:56 PM GMT
Laugh
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