SNP not as secure as I thought

In the space of 2 years, 2015 - 2017, the SNP lost 476,868 votes, or 32.8%.

They will get a lot of the bulk remain vote as a lot of the seats are SNP vs Tories, it won't matter if those people support independence or not they will still vote SNP.

Here are the seats they won, including the 2016 remain vote in the final column

Constituency	Elected	Party	2nd Party	% Maj	Majority	Leave %
North East Fife	GETHINS	SNP	Liberal Democrats	0.0%	2	36.31%
Perth and North Perthshire	WISHART	SNP	Conservative	0.0%	21	39.90%
Glasgow East	LINDEN	SNP	Labour	0.2%	75	43.84%
Glasgow South West	STEPHENS	SNP	Labour	0.2%	60	40.86%
Airdrie and Shotts	GRAY	SNP	Labour	0.5%	195	39.84%
Lanark and Hamilton East	CRAWLEY	SNP	Conservative	0.5%	266	35.96%
Motherwell and Wishaw	FELLOWS	SNP	Labour	0.8%	318	37.71%
Inverclyde	COWAN	SNP	Labour	1.0%	384	36.20%
Dunfermline and West Fife	CHAPMAN	SNP	Labour	1.7%	844	39.39%
Edinburgh South West	CHERRY	SNP	Conservative	2.2%	1,097	27.86%
Central Ayrshire	WHITFORD	SNP	Conservative	2.8%	1,267	41.62%
Argyll and Bute	O’HARA	SNP	Conservative	2.8%	1,328	39.43%
Edinburgh North and Leith	BROCK	SNP	Labour	2.9%	1,625	21.80%
Glasgow North	GRADY	SNP	Labour	3.2%	1,060	21.62%
Glasgow South	MCDONALD	SNP	Labour	4.5%	2,027	28.19%
Linlithgow and East Falkirk	DAY	SNP	Labour	5.2%	2,919	42.02%
West Dunbartonshire	DOCHERTY	SNP	Labour	5.2%	2,288	38.01%
Paisley and Renfrewshire North	NEWLANDS	SNP	Labour	5.6%	2,613	35.55%
Paisley and Renfrewshire South	BLACK	SNP	Labour	6.1%	2,541	34.80%
Glasgow Central	THEWLISS	SNP	Labour	6.3%	2,267	28.75%
Glasgow North West	MONAGHAN	SNP	Labour	6.6%	2,561	31.49%
Na h-Eileanan an Iar	MACNEIL	SNP	Labour	6.8%	1,007	44.76%
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow	CAMERON	SNP	Labour	7.1%	3,866	36.93%
Livingston	BARDELL	SNP	Labour	7.4%	3,878	43.26%
North Ayrshire and Arran	GIBSON	SNP	Conservative	7.7%	3,633	42.40%
Edinburgh East	SHEPPARD	SNP	Labour	7.9%	3,425	27.64%
Glenrothes	GRANT	SNP	Labour	8.1%	3,267	47.61%
Falkirk	MCNALLY	SNP	Labour	9.1%	4,923	42.11%
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey	HENDRY	SNP	Conservative	9.3%	4,924	40.13%
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	MCDONALD	SNP	Labour	9.7%	4,264	36.99%
Aberdeen North	BLACKMAN	SNP	Labour	11.3%	4,139	43.09%
Kilmarnock and Loudoun	BROWN	SNP	Labour	13.5%	6,269	39.45%
Dundee West	LAW	SNP	Labour	13.6%	5,262	40.75%
Ross, Skye and Lochaber	BLACKFORD	SNP	Conservative	15.4%	5,919	43.49%
Dundee East	HOSIE	SNP	Conservative	15.5%	6,645	38.41%

And here are the seats they didn't win, coming second in every one.

Constituency	Elected	Party	2nd Party	% Maj	Majority	Leave %
Stirling	KERR	Conservative	SNP	0.3%	148	32.28%
Rutherglen and Hamilton West	KILLEN	Labour	SNP	0.5%	265	37.57%
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	LAIRD	Labour	SNP	0.6%	259	43.26%
Glasgow North East	SWEENEY	Labour	SNP	0.8%	242	40.66%
Midlothian	ROWLEY	Labour	SNP	2.0%	885	37.94%
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	GAFFNEY	Labour	SNP	3.5%	1,586	38.78%
Gordon	CLARK	Conservative	SNP	4.9%	2,607	44.29%
East Lothian	WHITFIELD	Labour	SNP	5.5%	3,083	35.40%
Edinburgh West	JARDINE	Liberal Democrats	SNP	5.7%	2,988	28.77%
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	GRANT	Conservative	SNP	6.0%	2,774	44.11%
Ochil and South Perthshire	GRAHAM	Conservative	SNP	6.2%	3,359	39.50%
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	STONE	Liberal Democrats	SNP	6.6%	2,044	51.34%
Angus	HAIR	Conservative	SNP	6.6%	2,645	48.24%
Moray	ROSS	Conservative	SNP	8.7%	4,159	49.87%
East Renfrewshire	MASTERTON	Conservative	SNP	8.8%	4,712	25.68%
Banff and Buchan	DUGUID	Conservative	SNP	8.9%	3,693	53.59%
East Dunbartonshire	SWINSON	Liberal Democrats	SNP	10.3%	5,339	26.87%
Aberdeen South	THOMSON	Conservative	SNP	10.7%	4,752	32.14%
Dumfries and Galloway	JACK	Conservative	SNP	10.9%	5,643	45.11%
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	BOWIE	Conservative	SNP	15.4%	7,950	39.17%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	MUNDELL	Conservative	SNP	19.3%	9,441	44.65%
Orkney and Shetland	CARMICHAEL	Liberal Democrats	SNP	19.6%	4,563	40.28%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	LAMONT	Conservative	SNP	21.1%	11,060	43.26%
Edinburgh South	MURRAY	Labour	SNP	32.4%	15,514	22.15%

And here is a very interesting chart

If that trend continues then the Conservatives will be controlling Scotland by 2025

Like the Halycon days of 1955

The rise in the 1970's was attributed to the commencement of North Sea oil activity, whereas the quite remarkable surge in 2015 has been attributed to the 2014 independence referendum.

Tories in trouble in Aberdeen South (Ross Thompson unpopular anyway, and has now stood down) and Colin Clark in Gordon.
I suspect that this will be a nationwide sentiment, expect the SNP to return numbers similar to 2015.

Interesting to look again at the 35 seats successfully defended by the SNP in 2017, comparing the 2015 majority to the 2017.

Constituency	2010	2015	2017	Elected 2017	Turnout	Majority	%	2015%	Change
North East Fife	LD	SNP	SNP	GETHINS	71.3%	2	0.0%	9.6%	(9.6%)
Perth and North Perthshire	SNP	SNP	SNP	WISHART	71.8%	21	0.0%	17.8%	(17.8%)
Glasgow East	Lab	SNP	SNP	LINDEN	54.6%	75	0.2%	24.5%	(24.3%)
Glasgow South West	Lab	SNP	SNP	STEPHENS	56.2%	60	0.2%	24.3%	(24.1%)
Airdrie and Shotts	Lab	SNP	SNP	GRAY	59.2%	195	0.5%	19.8%	(19.3%)
Lanark and Hamilton East	Lab	SNP	SNP	CRAWLEY	65.3%	266	0.5%	18.3%	(17.8%)
Motherwell and Wishaw	Lab	SNP	SNP	FELLOWS	61.5%	318	0.8%	24.7%	(23.9%)
Inverclyde	Lab	SNP	SNP	COWAN	66.4%	384	1.0%	24.8%	(23.8%)
Dunfermline and West Fife	Lab	SNP	SNP	CHAPMAN	67.4%	844	1.7%	18.5%	(16.8%)
Edinburgh South West	Lab	SNP	SNP	CHERRY	69.4%	1,097	2.2%	15.8%	(13.6%)
Argyll and Bute	LD	SNP	SNP	O’HARA	71.5%	1,328	2.8%	16.3%	(13.5%)
Central Ayrshire	Lab	SNP	SNP	WHITFORD	65.3%	1,267	2.8%	26.8%	(24.0%)
Edinburgh North and Leith	Lab	SNP	SNP	BROCK	71.2%	1,625	2.9%	9.6%	(6.7%)
Glasgow North	Lab	SNP	SNP	GRADY	62.1%	1,060	3.2%	25.2%	(22.0%)
Glasgow South	Lab	SNP	SNP	MCDONALD	64.4%	2,027	4.5%	25.2%	(20.7%)
Linlithgow and East Falkirk	Lab	SNP	SNP	DAY	65.1%	2,919	5.2%	21.0%	(15.8%)
West Dunbartonshire	Lab	SNP	SNP	DOCHERTY	65.2%	2,288	5.2%	27.7%	(22.5%)
Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Lab	SNP	SNP	NEWLANDS	69.1%	2,613	5.6%	18.0%	(12.4%)
Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Lab	SNP	SNP	BLACK	68.0%	2,541	6.1%	12.3%	(6.2%)
Glasgow Central	Lab	SNP	SNP	THEWLISS	55.9%	2,267	6.3%	19.5%	(13.2%)
Glasgow North West	Lab	SNP	SNP	MONAGHAN	60.9%	2,561	6.6%	23.6%	(17.0%)
Na h-Eileanan An Iar	SNP	SNP	SNP	MACNEIL	69.6%	1,007	6.8%	25.7%	(18.9%)
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow	Lab	SNP	SNP	CAMERON	67.3%	3,866	7.1%	27.3%	(20.2%)
Livingston	Lab	SNP	SNP	BARDELL	64.7%	3,878	7.4%	29.3%	(21.9%)
North Ayrshire and Arran	Lab	SNP	SNP	GIBSON	64.8%	3,633	7.7%	25.2%	(17.5%)
Edinburgh East	Lab	SNP	SNP	SHEPPARD	66.0%	3,425	7.9%	19.3%	(11.4%)
Glenrothes	Lab	SNP	SNP	GRANT	60.9%	3,267	8.1%	29.2%	(21.1%)
Falkirk	Lab	SNP	SNP	MCNALLY	65.4%	4,923	9.1%	32.6%	(23.5%)
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey	LD	SNP	SNP	HENDRY	68.7%	4,924	9.3%	18.8%	(9.5%)
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	Lab	SNP	SNP	MCDONALD	65.9%	4,264	9.7%	29.9%	(20.2%)
Aberdeen North	Lab	SNP	SNP	BLACKMAN	59.2%	4,139	11.3%	30.5%	(19.2%)
Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Lab	SNP	SNP	BROWN	63.4%	6,269	13.5%	25.3%	(11.8%)
Dundee West	Lab	SNP	SNP	LAW	61.7%	5,262	13.6%	38.2%	(24.6%)
Ross, Skye and Lochaber	LD	SNP	SNP	BLACKFORD	71.7%	5,919	15.4%	12.3%	3.1%
Dundee East	SNP	SNP	SNP	HOSIE	65.2%	6,645	15.5%	39.8%	(24.3%)

And here are the seats they they didn't defend, some big majorities overturned

Constituency	2010	2015	2017	Elected 2017	Turnout	Majority	%	2015%	Change
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	LD	SNP	Con	LAMONT	71.5%	11,060	21.1%	0.6%	20.5%
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	LD	SNP	Con	BOWIE	71.2%	7,950	15.4%	12.7%	2.7%
Dumfries and Galloway	Lab	SNP	Con	JACK	69.5%	5,643	10.9%	11.5%	(0.6%)
Aberdeen South	Lab	SNP	Con	THOMSON	68.5%	4,752	10.7%	14.9%	(4.2%)
East Dunbartonshire	LD	SNP	LD	SWINSON	78.1%	5,339	10.3%	3.9%	6.4%
Banff and Buchan	SNP	SNP	Con	DUGUID	61.6%	3,693	8.9%	31.4%	(22.5%)
East Renfrewshire	Lab	SNP	Con	MASTERTON	76.7%	4,712	8.8%	6.6%	2.2%
Moray	SNP	SNP	Con	ROSS	67.4%	4,159	8.7%	18.4%	(9.7%)
Angus	SNP	SNP	Con	HAIR	63.0%	2,645	6.6%	25.2%	(18.6%)
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	LD	SNP	LD	STONE	65.9%	2,044	6.6%	11.2%	(4.6%)
Ochil and South Perthshire	Lab	SNP	Con	GRAHAM	70.6%	3,359	6.2%	17.6%	(11.4%)
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Lab	SNP	Con	GRANT	64.9%	2,774	6.0%	21.6%	(15.6%)
Edinburgh West	LD	SNP	LD	JARDINE	73.8%	2,988	5.7%	5.9%	(0.2%)
East Lothian	Lab	SNP	Lab	WHITFIELD	70.6%	3,083	5.5%	11.5%	(6.0%)
Gordon	LD	SNP	Con	CLARK	68.4%	2,607	4.9%	14.9%	(10.0%)
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	Lab	SNP	Lab	GAFFNEY	63.3%	1,586	3.5%	22.7%	(19.2%)
Midlothian	Lab	SNP	Lab	ROWLEY	66.3%	885	2.0%	20.4%	(18.4%)
Glasgow North East	Lab	SNP	Lab	SWEENEY	53.0%	242	0.8%	24.4%	(23.6%)
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Lab	SNP	Lab	LAIRD	63.5%	259	0.6%	18.9%	(18.3%)
Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Lab	SNP	Lab	KILLEN	63.5%	265	0.5%	17.3%	(16.8%)
Stirling	Lab	SNP	Con	KERR	74.3%	148	0.3%	20.1%	(19.8%)

Constituency	2010	2015	2017	Elected 2017	Turnout	Majority	%	2015%	Change
Banff and Buchan	SNP	SNP	Con	DUGUID	61.6%	3,693	8.9%	31.4%	(22.5%)
Angus	SNP	SNP	Con	HAIR	63.0%	2,645	6.6%	25.2%	(18.6%)
Glasgow North East	Lab	SNP	Lab	SWEENEY	53.0%	242	0.8%	24.4%	(23.6%)
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	Lab	SNP	Lab	GAFFNEY	63.3%	1,586	3.5%	22.7%	(19.2%)
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Lab	SNP	Con	GRANT	64.9%	2,774	6.0%	21.6%	(15.6%)
Midlothian	Lab	SNP	Lab	ROWLEY	66.3%	885	2.0%	20.4%	(18.4%)
Stirling	Lab	SNP	Con	KERR	74.3%	148	0.3%	20.1%	(19.8%)
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Lab	SNP	Lab	LAIRD	63.5%	259	0.6%	18.9%	(18.3%)
Moray	SNP	SNP	Con	ROSS	67.4%	4,159	8.7%	18.4%	(9.7%)
Ochil and South Perthshire	Lab	SNP	Con	GRAHAM	70.6%	3,359	6.2%	17.6%	(11.4%)
Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Lab	SNP	Lab	KILLEN	63.5%	265	0.5%	17.3%	(16.8%)
Aberdeen South	Lab	SNP	Con	THOMSON	68.5%	4,752	10.7%	14.9%	(4.2%)
Gordon	LD	SNP	Con	CLARK	68.4%	2,607	4.9%	14.9%	(10.0%)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	LD	SNP	Con	BOWIE	71.2%	7,950	15.4%	12.7%	2.7%
Dumfries and Galloway	Lab	SNP	Con	JACK	69.5%	5,643	10.9%	11.5%	(0.6%)
East Lothian	Lab	SNP	Lab	WHITFIELD	70.6%	3,083	5.5%	11.5%	(6.0%)
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	LD	SNP	LD	STONE	65.9%	2,044	6.6%	11.2%	(4.6%)
East Renfrewshire	Lab	SNP	Con	MASTERTON	76.7%	4,712	8.8%	6.6%	2.2%
Edinburgh West	LD	SNP	LD	JARDINE	73.8%	2,988	5.7%	5.9%	(0.2%)
East Dunbartonshire	LD	SNP	LD	SWINSON	78.1%	5,339	10.3%	3.9%	6.4%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	LD	SNP	Con	LAMONT	71.5%	11,060	21.1%	0.6%	20.5%

Do you support Scottish independence Angoose, and will you be voting SNP regardless as pretty sure you're in a Tory vs SNP marginal from what you've said before.

just shows that there are hardly any safe seats in scotland these days. sure SNP will sweep up the vast majority this time but wouldn't take much for the picture to look very different in the future

Good thread. Very interesting numbers. Thanks Angoose.

Nov 6, 2019 -- 5:06PM, n88uk wrote:

Do you support Scottish independence Angoose, and will you be voting SNP regardless as pretty sure you're in a Tory vs SNP marginal from what you've said before.

I've never been a supporter of Scottish nationalism for similar reasons to why I am anti Brexit i.e. my belief that bigger is better
Despite that, I'll be voting SNP next month to unseat Colin Clark from his Gordon constituency.

Having been out of the UK for eleven years prior to January of this year, I still struggle to get a real feel for the movement that created the change in the Scottish political landscape from Labour to SNP.

As you can see from the above, I like facts and figures, another reason for me to be cautious regarding Brexit, a concept that continues to be ill-defined.

What actually happened to Labour in Scotland to totally collapse like they have.

I know some people in Aberdeen South I think it is who say they will also vote SNP despite not supporting independence so I assume this is reasonably common now. In part I guess a strong SNP will likely be good for Scotland getting concessions from the UK, and a lot of SNP other policies tend to be in line with what voters want.

Humans have a tendency to seek simple explanations to complex situations, imagining that a single factor can be used to neatly summarise the cumulative impact of incremental change.

It can't. But it does helps us feel less confused whilst simultaneously eliminating cognitive dissonance.

Here is a link to a four year old article that sets out to identify a series of factors that resulted in the collapse of Labour political dominance in Scotland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33198969

Some interesting views in there, the aspect of leadership jumps out in and between the lines, the idea that it was an accumulation of events also shines through.

There is no simple explanation, but I would highlight an inability to adapt to an increasingly dynamic environment as being a key part of the story.

Labour are done in Scotland even traditional hard core supporters are now with migrating to the SNP, (previously known as the Tartan Tories,) they are now seen as the working class party.

Their opponents consist of the orange walk and other racist anti immigrant, and intolerant bigoted groups.

If there is another independence referendum they will be strong favs to win, and I don't support independence for the same reason I don't support Brexit, but Scotland will not accept Boris Johnston or Jacob Recce Mogg being in charge, no doubt about that.

Their opponents consist of the orange walk and other racist anti immigrant, and intolerant bigoted groups.

you couldn't mean flusher and ackie could you?

the same people who done this Kenny.

Vandals 'violently destroy' Roma Holocaust memorial plaque in Glasgow
The Romani Rose Tree Memorial was 'violently destroyed' by thugs three months after it was planted in Queen's Park.

ByNicholas Keyden
12:39, 7 NOV 2019
NEWS

The vandalised Queen's Park plague dedicated to Roma people who lost their lives in World War II (Image: Facebook)
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Callous vandals have destroyed a Roma Holocaust memorial in Glasgow dedicated to men, women and children who were murdered during World War II .

The Romani Rose Tree Memorial was planted in Queen's Park on Roma Genocide Memorial Day, August 2, by young people from the Govanhill community.

But the plaque memorialising the men, women and children who lost their lives has been ripped from its podium in a senseless act of vandalism.

Local residents reported that it had been "violently destroyed" on Monday November 4.

Romano Lav, a Glasgow charity supporting the Roma community's rights, have vowed to rebuild the memorial.

In a statement posted on Facebook, they said: "We are disgusted by this act of vandalism.


Young members of the Roma community with the memorial in Glasgow's Queen's Park (Image: Facebook)
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"We will not tolerate racism, intimidation, or intolerance directed towards our Roma communities, or indeed towards anyone else.

"Roma Genocide Memorial Day is about remembrance, but it is also about resistance. That this hateful act occurred at all underscores the need for this memorial.

"We will continue to honour the memory of those who lost their lives during the Holocaust, whilst fighting against the racism that marks our contemporary political moment, and that is a scourge on our society and communities.

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"We will restore the Holocaust memorial to its original condition and we call upon all of our friends, neighbours, and allies – locally and internationally – to stand in solidarity with our Roma communities and to join us in resisting racism, today and every day."


Young members of the Roma community in Govanhill plant the memorial in a ceremony earlier this year (Image: Facebook)
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It is believed to be the first memorial to the Roma genocide erected in Scotland.

A spokesperson for Stand Up To Racism said: "We are disgusted at this news. To desecrate the memory of the Roma and Gypsy people’s suffering in the holocaust is an outrage that all Glasgwegians, bar the mindless perpetrators of this attack, will oppose.

"As part of a heightened atmosphere of racism across Europe we've seen violent attacks on Roma people in Italy and elsewhere alongside the growth of the far right.

"Racism, Islamophobia and antisemitism are at the centre of the racist and fascist right’s agenda. Just like in the 1930s, the Roma people are also becoming a target.

"We stand with our Roma neighbours and friends and condemn this.

A Police Scotland spokesperson said: "The incident has not been reported to police, although officers are aware through posts on social media and will be approaching those concerned."

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